[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

there is going to be a spectacular falling out in the MOD thread if this currently modelled cold spell fails to deliver. It doesn't matter how many times you say "a SSW doesn't mean blocking in the right place" etc etc. When people see what's being modelled at present then it can only lead to many tiny toys out of many tiny prams.

I've got to say that I'm not enthused by it all yet. It's still more than a week away (first person to spot the killer shortwave at t+120?!) for starters and there's a big difference between the beginning of February and the beginning of march (yes, I know what could happen if everything falls right but...well....).

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

5 hours ago, sparky1972 said:

i for one am now looking forward to the late winter warmth, bbc weather forecast for here have double figure temps from thursday onwards, so if the winds fall light and with the sunshine i hoping it will feel pleasent enough

Make the most of it. All i keep hearing is "delayed spring", "bitter march" etc etc. It's been the same EVERY February since 2013. 

I wonder what the return rate is for a march like 2013? More than five years I would think. 

That said, I'm on leave the first week of march to get the garden sorted so that will definitely be a wet and very probably cold week.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards]

light snow shower here in Farnborough. When I say light I mean proper flakes blowing about but there was only about 15 of them.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Just now, Chevron12345 said:

The Ap for Poole may show snow. But Metoffice website shows different.

fortunately Aps or websites won't ultimately decide the outcome!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

I've just driven to work from Bournemouth to Farnborough up the M3. The rain in Bournemouth turned to snow up Poulner hill and over the forest (settling at Rufus Stone) and then it was patchy until Twyford. After that loads of snow through Winchester to Basingstoke. Less here at work but snowing hard now.

Looks like it's passing east quickly.  

[Model output discussion - winter proper underway]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

that's interesting! As it stands it looks a pretty good shout in terms of our weather from that far out!

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Kids very happy at the sight of falling snow! It’s not sticking and it certainly won’t do, but its a pretty good way to start Monday! 

My two year old wanted to go "ice skating" in it earlier. Just plain rain now in eastern Bomo ?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Seems more like rain here now. I think the precip isn't heavy enough now. 

Definitely is just rain now. I wasn't expecting that, I thought it might get more favourable than less?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Looks light wet snow in Iford! Get in!!! Better than expected!

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

3 minutes ago, gower84 said:

Do we really think this is going to happen?!

Heart says yes, head says another near miss. I could ask my wife? She's normally right about everything ?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Same here mate, my girlfriend has told me to shut up numerous times today and to get off the weather forum lol.

 

I can only think its the ppn from the bristol channel.

I don't think it is. It's a separate low off nw France which is due to move ne tomorrow morning. I think.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Somebody give me some hope? ?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards]

Still just moderate rain in Bournemouth. Feels so near yet so far....

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/17 onwards]

Like others I'm staying well away from the MOD thread. I'm a bit disappointed that this cold spell could end up just being the few little flakes I saw yesterday afternoon. Still, lovely run through wick fields this morning, crisp, icy and frosty. More please.

as karlos says, our time will come. Probably during the next ice advance (although probably still "marginal" here).

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Me too steve..and it will most likely be right.

Indeed. Much more realistic but at least colder side of average which in recent Decembers is an achievement in itself.

[Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn]

I've got no specific evidence to back this up but I've previously noted numerous occasions  when the GFS massively overdoes the longevity and intensity of troughing just to our east. That's mostly in summer but the GFSop is almost certainly overdoing that low. 

 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

53 minutes ago, Eugene said:

 

So true, find it strange how some feel March 1st means a sudden switch to Spring warmth, March can be a very chilly disturbed month, looks to me like a rather cold unsettled first half to March with temps around average at best.

 

Indeed. March can deliver all kinds of nonsense. Can't help feeling that the shallow surface high at some point in march is going to deliver something colder for the uk, not just the north. 

 

[Predictions for 2017?]

2002 had a pretty poor summer (very wet july), five years later 2007 had a very wet summer, five years after that came 2012. Five years later....2017?

I reckon a cold wet spring followed by a very wet summer. Misery will abound.

 

I can't tell you how much science has gone into that "forecast".

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

52 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All-

ive been offline for a week taking a little break- monitoring the progress of the strat mainly-

Things are homing in nicely now on the second SSW of the season ( a final warming ) - initially the GFS modelled this & the ECM wasnt on board- however as time has ticked by the ECM has followed suit -

the 10HPA values now set to land at 0m/s around the 24th so this coming Friday - 

Also the 30HPA responding as well

So whilst there isnt to much in the way of tropospheric response just yet - all be it a fleeting Northerly this week- I still expect one last roll of the dice before winters finished- similarly to March 13 it looks cold !! 

So technically March may be spring however the window for Winter is still open- 

GFS now touting significant changes over the pole around day 12-13 on a similar pathway to a propergating SSW...

watch for the AO start to tank in the midterm from this week...

S

 

I'm willing to bet march 2013 isn't repeated 4 years later.

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Stopped now. Not much to write home about, but hopefully a warm up for the real deal come months end 

I've just woken up in a bit of daze. It must have snowed here too...there is a little on shed roofs. Missed it all. Was it good?

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Same here. Where's our snow grains 

I had to laugh at the lovely Alexis' forecast this evening. All showers dying out north of us through the weekend BUT she was quick to add that they are expecting double figures next week. I bet we don't struggle with those if they verify. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You'll have to point out this roaring Easterly to me..

 

 "roaring easterly sourced from Greece"!!

That said, I challenge you to tell my wife when she's moaning on Saturday that it isn't a roaring easterly she's encountering!

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

If you look at other factors for the same time frame, such as dew points, wetbulb temp and freezing level, there's enough evidence to show rain at low levels, maybe sleet if you're lucky.

we know all that............I think the point is how ludicrous things have got when you get a roaring easterly in early February with -8 uppers and still we find a way to get rain...

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

If this chart

produces rain and sleet in early February then honestly ... the snow chasers might as well give up for good.

This should be a nailed-on all-snow chart. I can't believe it is even being suggested as marginal.

I keep thinking the same thing! HOW DARE THIS EVEN THINK ABOUT BEING MARGINAL? On this basis you can expect the next ice age to only manage to produce drizzle in Bournemouth.

 

[Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?]

Just now, That ECM said:

I get some are disappointed with how long the cold may last but some will have a fun few days.

I was just thinking exactly that! I think midlands northwards (esp. the towards the east but not exclusively as that little low moves across ) could see some quite meaningful snow.

 

I like the snowless Bournemouth area on the chart you have posted!