Frank Trough
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Posts posted by Frank Trough
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30 minutes ago, connorlad1974 said:
Really a plume? Some models are expressing some change of air mass to come from a SE quadrant over a fairly cold continent, surface cold would see be very viable under these circumstances, the ensembles see a less cold period but no plume, do you have any charts to back this up please?
you need to also read the quoted post to put it in context - I don't think anybody was actually calling it a plume in the summer sense LOL. MWB was just referring the milder uppers being dragged up from the south next week - "rather like a plume".
just taking the 06z ensembles there is pretty good agreement on the warmer uppers making inroads:
after that plenty of scatter but there is a downward trend again.
So based on that I'd say the "change of airmass from a SE quadrant" has - AT THIS STAGE - more chance of verifying than a cold northerly at day 10.
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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:
GEFS calls a prolonged milder "blip" into serious question. Most members cut off the Mediterranean influence by T216 and a majority of member have east or north-easterly influence once again. 8 out of 22 members even have a cold pool back over the UK.
The milder T144-T240 on some of the ops is rather like a summer plume - now how many forecasted plumes actually make it to the UK?
I may have suggested no snow possible next week, but if I may, I'd like to go back on that please - I rate chances of another cold blast by the end of next week at 30%.
Roll on further to next weekend and lots of northerlies starting to appear...
on balance I'd say the "plume" has more chance of verifying than any northerlies next weekend at this stage.
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42 minutes ago, Wayneywoo said:
I can't remember, this winter, the last time ECM predicted anything with confidence, correctly beyond +72...
Only when UKMO/GFS agree for a few consecutive runs would I bother with ECM.
The previous blocking episode earlier in the winter the ECM absolutely nailed in the long/mid range. The ECM admittedly had the blocking too far north initially but at the same time frames the GFS was smashing westerlies all the way to Russia. Don't rule out the ECM view of things longer term.
As is typical in winter the focus on here is always day 10. but in this case we have an easterly setting up at t+48 so the real interest is the much nearer term for now. FAX charts over the next couple of days are going to be of great interest.
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5 minutes ago, Stu_London said:
Pendulum swinging back to an old school easterly where models (GFS worst offender) will suggest atlantic breakdowns only to back track in the 0-96 hr range.
Whether or not it's quite right for a snowy cold spell remains to be seen but it does look like we will have plenty of cold at the surface and as others have stated, get the cold entrenched and its likely that snow events will pop up, sometimes at very short notice.
It looks like a bit of a grey misery fest on the ecm? Or will it be clear and frosty?
It still looks like a wait for anything snowy but there is no doubt we are still in the game for a while. That blocking isn't going anywhere fast.
and easy to forget that a westerly fest was being advertised not long ago.
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
Yes...it has been trailed on the CFS for yonks...
A Greenland ridge stands a better than average chance as we head towards latter Feb. We'll see if the 0z GEFS continue where the 18z suite left off at the tail end of the run.
Here's the latest offering for March...again excellent consistency with its SSW induced outlook, just as it was March 2013...
I think we're going to hear a lot of references to March 2013 over the coming weeks, especially given charts like that. Worth considering that the chances of a repeat are statistically unlikely. Very unlikely. March 2013 was the coldest since the 1880's or something. So we have to ask ourselves how likely a repeat would be 4 years later?
stranger things have happened though. Maybe it will be the new normal?! There will be plenty of hope for that if the current snow chances keep reducing.
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44 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:
Heavy snow for cornwall on the 192 ECM-
Thats a hens teeth special !!
...which in itself means it has a minuscule chance of verifying, like all output at that range.
to me the odds on a "cold outbreak" are very good which, given recent years, is hugely positive. I remain massively unconvinced that snow is going to be a major feature.
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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Another cold outlier on its way.
A stunning chart.
just need to get it to t+72 now....just five days to wait.
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Looking at the output in the nearer term the GFS shows some pretty concerning storms battering the south Friday through sunday. Damaging winds and high rainfall totals:
The Euros less vigorous although ECM still looks rough Friday into saturday:
I think it's probably safe to say that there is the potential for some "poor travelling conditions" and "disruption to weekend plans" for southern parts at least. I think flooding could be a real issue.
And then it may or may not get cold....not interested now unless it actually snows where I live. And that is ALWAYS a tall order.
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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
Severe gales for knocker country on T144 height rises to NE looking interesting.
Finally somebody has noticed the potential for a bit of storminess at the end of the week! Timing differences though and ukmo not that interested at all. The country could be forecast to be flattened at t+48 and not get a mention in winter!
Will my greenhouse survive long enough to enjoy any height rises?
it'll be a bit of a shock, last decent gale was ages ago. november?
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Goodness me the 12z are abysmal for coldies no wonder the thread is quiet!
GFS wants to introduce the PV from hell as we head into Feb and as much as i dont want to buy it....
UKMO doesnt look like offering anything in the way of alternative progression at 144.
Just thinking aloud here but i really hope we dont see northen blocking come March/April,that just rubs ( un-used) salt into the wounds..
But northern blocking is always more likely in spring. It's not really a great leap to for that happen even in the absence of a late SSW.
The westerlies were always going return so it was just our time.
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1 minute ago, Mike the Fish said:
Agreed, we are always too far South and either too far west or too far east or its all rain. One day our time will come again! To be honest be always tend to fair better when the cold air has established itself and the mild air from the Atlantic tries to push back in and if you are very lucky the fabled Channel Low.
Seems quite a few fellow South/South Western folk are also suffering from no snow hangovers!!!
Back to the drawing board (Charts) to see when our next let down will be lol
Oh the joy of British Winter.
Congrats to those that go some of the white stuff!
well.....the 06z shows later next week some decent cold uppers and the winds getting south of east and dragging some "precip" off the Channel onto southwestern coastal areas.
should get some really light snizzle from that.
it's only a week away.....can't see it changing much.....
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1 minute ago, festivalking said:
I'd jump in the car and head due north!
But I want to see it snow IN Bournemouth!!! doesn't matter how pathetic! I don't think much is falling from that, though? it's Virgil Van Dyke or something?
Does anybody else get that? that snow doesn't really count if you see it somewhere other than your home area? Like yesterday seeing all that snow down the M3 - didn't really feel it because I knew as soon as it hit Ringwood there would be zip.
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much as I love living in Bournemouth we really are relegation fodder when it comes to snow. It's almost embarrassing at times.
Well done to all who have seen some so far and who might see some more yet! that band travelling southeast is a massive fail for central southern England I think. Going to be too far east.
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That was an interesting journey....dear god. The snow at Winchester was something to behold. Zip in Bomo!
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Contingency planners for Hampshire County council latest update is that they think less snow risk for Hampshire snow (they're more worried about flooding apparently). Make of that what you will - not sure they know anything more than we do really.
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1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:
After many hours of rain and warm ground temperatures, apart from the nutters in the M3 traffic as they panic toning (oh and the M3 bump south of Basingstoke)(Oh and the speed camera on the spur road) I would think you'll be driving in snow but unlikely to cause major hiatus.
that's pretty much the conclusion I'd come to yesterday. I just worry about that elevation at Basingstoke. I will just keep watching this thread and seeing how things pan out.
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morning,
I'm relying on this thread today to save me from acute embarrassment today. I live in Bournemouth but I'm at work in Fleet - I cannot afford to get stuck today. What chance? Have to do nursery pick up in Bomo by 6pm and my wife is home ill so she can't bail me out.
Am I doomed?
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:
I'm claiming being in B.
and me! I reckon I'm in by a couple of miles
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1 minute ago, That ECM said:
Got to love a 2/3 day topler that's lasts for over a week
that thought keeps popping into my head! this GFS op run actually shows a proper freeze - it would be a genuine shock to people I think if it's anywhere near close.
haven't had too many days feeling like this in recent winters!
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Anybody who thinks the GFS handled this better than the ECM has a pretty short memory I think. As recently as Saturday the GFS still had the Atlantic charging through:
GFS:
ECM at the same time:
and modelled today for the same time:
GFS:
ECM:
you can make up your own mind from there. The GFS goes on to produce an easterly flow today, something the ECM has stuck at for days now. The Ecm has adjusted yes (and still is obviously) but the GFS has performed a U-turn.
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"not bad" he said in the MOD!
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:
Ditch teleconnections and anomalies, I say! What's wrong with grebes, seagulls and rowan berries?
How about just paying more attention to operational output up to t+144?
The unfortunate reality is that in recent winters guessing that "it's more likely to be mild and westerly than not" would be pretty accurate.
What I find baffling is that even seasoned posters who's input we really enjoy seem unable to learn from recent experience. If one model starts to downgrade cold chances or doesn't accept it from the start it rarely seems to be totally wrong. And that's regardless of which model.
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What have we learned from recent experience? As soon as a model starts eroding a cold spell it just seems to gather pace.
We'll see tonight but my guess is the ecm won't be as good. Just seems to be our luck.
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I know recently we've seen quite a lot of comment on the longer range forecasts for this winter not quite delivering what many were hoping for (yet?!).
While I was out running I was trying to think (just from memory) which notable periods/patterns of recent times were really well forecast in advance (and as I say, it's just from my memory so it won't be accurate or entirely inclusive).
So far I have:
1) December 2010 - I'm pretty sure GP nailed this well in advance and other seasonal forecasts also picked up on it. It was also modelled well from well out in FI to verfification
2). Spring 2013 - the notable cold. I'm pretty sure I remember reading input on here that pointed to a cold spring and "southerly tracking lows" which I remember at the time dismissing as probably being just cold and wet for my neck of the woods....how wrong was that! -13 uppers in march! #
3). July 2013 - I've nothing to really back this up other than I quite sure the CFS monthlies were convinced about a good july for a while leading up to it
4) January/February 2014 - I have a feeling the wet and windy westerlies were well forecast for this period but again I can't think why exactly I think that.
I must have missed loads but these really stick out in my mind.
Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
At least in this case the background signals are favourable as well. We all know only too well that retrogression and genuine Greenland heights are modelled way more than they clarify. I guess that's true of several patterns which are outside the envelope of normal for the U.K.