Frank Trough
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Posts posted by Frank Trough
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27 minutes ago, Interitus said:
Was it? This was the scene at Offekerque a couple of miles from Calais and the coast (courtesy meteociel)
isn't Calais in France?
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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
The ECM is okay but it does have the PV chunk over ne Canada further east than either the GFS and UKMO at T144hrs.
I'd be surprised if we're not debating "another will it won't it snow scenario" regarding a shortwave running into the UK next week.
Overall not bad outputs this evening but we want to see some proper blocking to the n/ne to start showing.
I'm prepared to answer that now - "it won't". Not in Bournemouth anyway! Mind you, it's going to take another Loch Lomond Re-advance or Krakatoa for us i think.
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9 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:
one snow event on the southcoast would most certainly put a smile on the snow starved southcoast crew.
27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:What it means is the front line of PPN WILL be all snow
I'll eat my own arms if it snows in Bournemouth from that setup. Further east along the coast might be a different matter but from Portsmouth west i'd be thinking about driving in land a little bit. We've been here so many times on the south coast - I can hear Alexis now on South today saying "falling as rain along the coast but further inland there could be a dusting".
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:I echo what Fred says, I feel it's game on for a wintry spell next week and I'm pleased to see the met office are continuing to mention a mid Atlantic ridge further into feb which would lead to more prolonged arctic outbreaks from the NW & N...so signs are promising for February to be easily the best month of this winter for coldies!
I don't think it's anywhere near game on. It's a watching brief. Cross model agreement of cold air flooding south at t+96 is game on. Until then sensible money is on something more amplified than the GFS but less promising than the Euros.
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5 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:
Why am I not surprised that the start of meteorological spring will probably bring the best chance of widespread wintry weather...as I said yesterday in the moans thread, the line on the UK weather headstone will read ' right synoptics, wrong time of year'
Blocking is statistically more common in spring anyway, isn't it? weakening vortex and all that...i'm sure I read some old flannel that snow is more common in march than December in the south.
Interestingly (and for "fun") the CFS monthlies suggest February will be above average but every month after that until the end of civilisation will be slightly below average and no doubt windy.
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12 minutes ago, IDO said:
No, the mean is from the ensembles for that run and if they are not picking up anything but a westerly zonal flow then the mean will reflect that. Looking at the D10 ECM mean, and obviously without cluster information, it is apparent that the ensembles are in strong support of the current predicted pattern, though of course variations on the theme cannot be ruled out.
Out of interest, how often do day 16 mean charts show anything other than what could be called a "westerly pattern"?
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8 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:
Good one Knocks....
Well the overnight runs if correct pretty much kill off any hope of cold before months end, so now we turn to Feb and the first thing to be thankful for is there are 29 days of it this year
Whilst none of us can be sure what Feb will deliver the MOD is a good place for at least gauging the mood/expectation, not just by the posts in there, but also by the number of members watching/posting. Currently the number is pretty few by comparison to recent days, but perhaps most telling of the mood is a post made 1/2hr ago that states 'GP said a few days ago anyone thinking a mild shot early Feb might be in for a shock'...the 1 like so far for that post pretty much says it all imo.
it is disappointing really. I've absolutely loved the last couple of days - hard frosts, beautiful crisp, clear sunny days, stunning fiery sunsets...now back to the same old bilge water we had before Christmas. Given the excitement initially generated of "tanking NAOs" and "shredded vortexes" etc it was a pretty run of the mill cold snap. Just shows you how far we've fallen in recent winters!
No point in February if it's going to be grey, mild dirge. Roll on spring....and the inevitable below average, wet and windy second half of April/all of May.
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one thing that I am still scratching my head about is how quickly the AO/NAO forecasts seemed to have turned around. It only seems a few days ago (in reality it's probably much longer - this happens all the time as I get older) that I was reading with excitement posts showing the AO "tanking" and how it was off the scale, nothing like it since 2010... and now it's forecast to go positive again?
I guess I just thought these "broader scale" patterns were likely to be more stable. But then are they just composites of the model output anyway?
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13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:
Well 06z trumps 00z with what is simply a stunning run with GHP and Atlantic ridge in total and utter charge, how many more stunning runs before reality is confirmed? Whatever reality will be
Snow event with shallow channel low. The following chart is 'FREEZING' with I suspect bucket loadss of snow
I mean...come on
BFTP
If I didn't live in Bournemouth I'd be very excited. Reality for southern coastal counties at face value is a delay in really cold uppers and cold rain until well out of the reliable.
But I think a lot of people are going to be very happy come next week - exciting stuff.
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just stop for a second a think about how ridiculous the concept of "trolling" about the weather actually is?! it's utter nonsense. More to the point, how do people allow themselves to be "trolled" about the weather? it's the weather for crying out loud!
it goes back partly to something I mentioned the other day - there's far too much emphasis in the MOD thread on output beyond T+144. If more time was spent analysing the output up to t+144 (regardless of weather type) nobody could really be considered to be "trolling".
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I've just randomly copied this from the MOD thread so I can make a point:
"I have no interest in the charts above haha plenty of time to see charts like that in the start of spring ."
This is in reference to the upcoming shockingly, potentially record breaking December warmth. It's not really what I want to see either but the fact is it is what is going to happen, because it's in the reliable timeframe.
I sometimes wonder if there shouldn't be a thread specifically to discuss the output up to t+144 and then another to discuss output >t+144. After all, regardless of what weather we want it is useful to analyse the weather that might actually verify. I have to plan site visits for work and my summer hobby of fishing relies on trying to forecast with accuracy the wind direction and timing of rain events etc within a fairly short timescale.
Personally I would value the input of the multitude of talented model analysts on this forum at looking at the more reliable timeframe and discussing the timing of weather fronts, where rainfall is likely to be highest, will fog linger, will the wind swing round...etc etc. Obviously in winter when there is a cold spell that gets inside t+144 then that would be very exciting too.
I'd also then quite like to read through the winter "hunt for cold" (and summer "hunt for anything other gales and rain") in the >t+144 category in the knowledge that it is fun, interesting but ultimately a search for clues and potential pattern changes. How much does the model thread gain from seeing day 16 mean charts or day 8+ operational charts? Even in this current "dirge" there is still weather that is going to verify which is worthy of discussion without having to trip over CFS output or charts that basically have as much chance of verifying as giving Tess Daley some coloured Crayons and a paper plate. But I do understand that it is still fun and interesting, just it would be good to have it somewhere else.
Anyway, just a thought which i'm sure has been explored before and there are probably loads of good reasons not to do it.
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19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:
In Greater London I've had 2 air frosts a lot earlier than usual out of that November cold spell.
Are air frosts in London in November all that unusual? perhaps they are now, I don't know.
I am still on only one ice scrape of the car windscreen and it is now "officially" the middle of December. Looking at the output this morning that isn't going to change for sometime in my neck of the woods (although i'm in tropical Bournemouth - "the land that winter forgot" - I do live quite low down in a river valley so we tend to get frosts a little more often than the immediate surroundings).
"The Euro High is dead...long live the Euro High"
I hope a new year brings a change of fortunes - just something more seasonal would be nice. A bit like prawn cocktail, cold, crisp, sunny frosty weather should never really have gone out of fashion.
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looking at the ouput this morning going forwards on a broadscale (i.e. euro heights, SW winds) there surely has to be a decent shot (as it stands) that this will become the mildest December on record? Was 1934 the mildest at 8.1?
Getting towards the middle of December and I've scraped my car windscreen once.
I'm really hoping the Netweather forecast for January comes to fruition.
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Can anyone tell me a few years where they have seen a cold snap this early before?
I have had a little bit of a think but I cannot remember many years really.
2008 of course had something in October;
2005; the cold snap arrived a little later around 25th/26th ... as it did in 2010.
I seem to recall recording a very early cold snap in November 2001, cannot remember any details though at all really, except it did happen very early on?
To be fair, the northerly snap we have just experienced really did take me by complete surprise.
1988 had one around this time, didn't it?
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After a few pleasant days last week it's back to the usual rubbish.
Temp has struggled to 13C, is it really second half of June, cloudy and windy. Story of the spring and summer so far bar a few day's here and there.
I think you'd have to go up to the arctic to find weather so cold in May and June at sea level. Many day's of either single figures or 13C or less as max's!!
Need it to warm up!!
or move south! gorgeous down here today.
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huge uncertainty then.... but im not liking the gfs 06z nor the ecm 00z, @t240 they both have a greenland high, the beginings of a southerly tracking jet and a large atlantic low heading in straight towards us. IF this becomes reality, well, the heart of summer at least doesnt look good for settled/warm/dry weather.
When I looked at the ECM this morning I must admit my heart sank a little bit. From a personal preference viewpoint (and I understand some people love below average, wet, windy weather in summer) I would not want to see that t240 chart verify. I was hoping that it might just be the ECM overdoing the height rises as it often seems to on the operational. Then the GFS 06z came along and pretty much backed it....
at least the 06z is a genuine outlier later in the run for the south:
I should caveat this by saying I have next week booked off on leave (always a jinx) and I have a long standing all day fishing pass from the Mrs for Friday 26th which is naturally going to be influenced heavily by sod's law. So on that basis the 06z is probably spot on and leading the way!
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A strike in the western channel now!
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Agreed, but its still bizarre - to think we might have been hoping for those charts in January!
nothing short of a channel low would do in January! But indeed, we *seem* (and my perception is probably wrong when the actual facts are explored) to have had a lot of cool days and northwest/north/northeast winds through may and the start of June.
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In all the years i've been a weather model watcher i really can't recall a time when i seen predicted night time temperatures to ever be this low the week leading up to the Summer Solstice. According to the GFS 12Z Some areas could be seeing Temperatures 1 to 3 degrees BELOW freezing. Brrrr!!
These are just 3 examples, but to be honest there are many other nights too during the next 7 - 10 days when night time temperatures get significantly low for the time of year.
.....Time to dig out those Winter woollies!
Lol!i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer. Also worth noting the last couple of GEM runs haven't made much of the pressure rise next week - much flatter than the GFS and ECM so we'll see how that goes.
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Look Ive not cherry picked anything. Ive posted over the last few days about the "TREND" from the models. And as get out and enjoy the weather, I work outside all the time,,,,
What would you say the TREND from the UKMO has been over the last couple runs?
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Evening Guys and Gals. A fine weekend coming up for most away from Scotland , then everyone enjoying the fun for a few days with low dewpoints, low humidities , but cloud amounts will very from place to place, but plenty of dry weather to be had , just watch out for ground frosts, if youre a gardener perhaps air frosts in one or two locations. The Pivitol point next week is Thursday, Pressure falling and it looks as though unsettled conditions will be moving north across southern Britain. So enjoy the days ahead....Models though really struggling with detail, but at the moment this is the trend....
based on what? That really is cherry picking! neither the UKMO or ECMFW show that happening at the timeframe you claim?
but if we're cherry picking the GFS then yes, you're right:
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Diabolical output. Plenty of winter lovers in the MOD thread cheering it on though. have a feeling if I did the opposite in winter I would soon be shot. Lol.
You've obviously forgotten what June 2012 was like!
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These could of course be wrong, but still nothing in the way of warmth showing up across the next 10 days, let alone any heat. In fact temps are shown to be at or below normal for 90% or more of the UK ... http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html
"normal" temps for june would be warm, would it not? "nothing in the way of warmth" would more accurately describe the last few days I think. the "hot" conditions that were being modelled a few days ago have been substantially downplayed though, I definitely agree with you there coldcomfort.
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Without question the outlook is far better than what we're currently experiencing, but given the initial position of the main high centre I'm reluctant to get too far ahead of myself regarding the outlook. All too often in the past the models have been keen to build pressure eastwards 3 or 4 days hence from this kind of set up, but as time goes by this proves increasingly difficult to do, with winds remaining N of W and weak systems continuing to move down across eastern areas in particular.
on the flipside to that, how many times do we a trough predicted to drop down across or just east of the country and introduce a northerly only for it to end up further east at verification? that scenario seems to happen quite often but mainly gets noticed in winter. Maybe it's more common in winter! don't know.
I just want Saturday to be reasonable day - a whole day free to pursue outdoor interests so dry and not too windy are what I would order (don't really care about temps or sunshine). at present I will definitely bank any of the big three given how it was looking a few days ago!
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...
in Regional
Posted
straw clutching probably, but should this verify would it not give at least an outside chance of a wintry shower coming in off the sea along southwestern coasts?