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Mr Frost
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Posts posted by Mr Frost
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2 hours ago, Kentspur said:You've made me really jealous I was meant to have been on a Highlands lodge holiday this week instead I'm stuck in tier3 Kentshire with cold rain
Sorry to hear that mate - wee Met Office warning out now for Wednesday afternoon/evening through Thursday.
Hopefully things are a bit better from a virus/restrictions point of view later in Winter/early Spring so you can get up there - always a risk of plenty of snowfall at that time of year.
Back to model discussion - UKV latest snapshots for Thursday at 12:00
You can see from the combined snow parameters how marginal it is away from the North/higher ground at this stage. (If these charts are correct of course! )
0c isotherm:
Dewpoint temperature (c)
850HPA Temp & sea level pressure chart
Thickness (dam)
Hopefully by the end of the week some surprise/marginal snowfall for low ground in parts of the SW/S/SE- higher ground definitely at risk.I am done for this week - time to retreat to the regional thread for the days ahead.
Good luck to you all.
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I’m in the warning - yaaaaaaaas!
Local 200 meters hill and above here I come!
@Kayemill NE/E/SE is more at risk Thursday night/through Friday on current model output - high ground (200/300 most likely) Might see a separate warning issued tomorrow/Thursday - depending on current track/detail remaining the same.
What a great start to Winter!
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13 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:Is this the "will it snow" thread or the "model output discussion" thread?
I can’t see any model discussion in this post mate?
I am not sure what folk are looking for from the first week of Winter - risk of frosts, chilly days, marginal snow events, big accumulations over the hills/mountains are all forecast in the current models/charts.
Some folk in here must have very high expectations to not be happy with current output - we don’t live in Northern Finland.Here is another extremely marginal low ground snow risk showing on the models - high ground favoured!
Thursday 12:00
15:00
18:00
Many cold/snow lovers will be at least a little excited with the wintry potential - it’s better than 12c and drizzle! (Unless you are a fan of that weather of course!)
Cheers.
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Morning all
Happy Meteorological Winter to you all! Great to see everyone getting along!
UKV snapshots below - lovely stuff for some!
Wednesday at 22:00
Friday 03:00
06:00
09:00
Once again just for fun the lying snow depth (mm) chart - out to Friday 09:00.
All together now......It’s the most wonderful time of the year....
All the best to you all and I hope some of you at least see some snowfall - higher ground the place to be of course for the big totals!
Radar/lamp post watching begins tomorrow evening.
Have a good week!
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1 minute ago, Eskimo said:
Nearly all the GFS ens send a swirling band of precipitation back into the UK from the east on Friday - the minor variances are the exact position and depth of cold around it, which will ultimately determine who/where sees snow, if at all.
Noticing all the Met Office automated forecasts updating in these areas below to rain/sleet/snowfall around these times - higher ground event mostly of course! (200/300 meters)
Even @Kirkcaldy Weather would scrape some sleet from this!
Friday 3:00
06:00
09:00
Will it still show the same track/detail tomorrow though!?
Unbelievable model/chart viewing at the moment - lots to discuss/sweat over from short term to long term!
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Here are the latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies - weekly breakdown below! Anyone for a below average December and a pretty decent start to January?
07/12 to 13/12
14/12 to 20/12
21/12 to 27/12
28/12 to 03/01
04/01 to 10/01
As ever subject to change!
Lovely to look at though!
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Evening all!
Would not be surprised to see a wee Met Office warning for Wednesday night/Thursday morning for high ground (200/300 meters) - frequent snow/wintry showers from Wednesday afternoon/evening through to Thursday AM are forecast.
Wee snapshot below of Thursday at 06:00 (Before this point showers are spreading further North and East)
This below could also be a shout for another Met Office warning over high ground (same height as mentioned above) - Friday AM.
03:00
06:00
09:00
Still days away and much can change between now and then but it is a recurring theme at the moment within certain models/charts. (See ECM)
Big totals over the higher hills/mountains - out to Saturday 15:00
Someone in here will surely be posting snow pictures before Saturday! If nothing comes of this I am taking up another hobby!
All the best!
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Evening all!
Few snapshots below from the UKV:
04/12 - 00:00 - previously discussed snow/wintry streamers (Scotland) in full effect! Wintry showers also for parts of Northern Ireland, Ireland, England and Wales.
UKMO 04/12 - 13:00
UKV 04/12 - 12:00
UKMO 05/12 - 13:00
UKV 05/12 - 12:00
As always and just for fun...lying snow depth (mm) for this run out to 05/12 - 15:00.
Hard work this model/chart viewing hobby - especially during the late Autumn/Winter season when you are stuck working from home Monday to Friday! Not so easy when you have an extra tab opened on the laptop/phone to try and keep up to date with this thread/different model runs!
All the best to you all!
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Morning all
@Mair Snaw Aboyne would be a great place to live for a weather enthusiast - every season delivers something interesting...especially from a maximum/minimum temperature point of view.
Good luck mate!Yes @Kirkcaldy Weather looking decent for Wednesday/Thursday with regards to wintry showers - snowfall level most likely around 300 meters.
Risk down to 150/200 meters in the heaviest showers - bit of sleet/wet snow can’t be ruled out for anyone!
Every precipitation type is on the table for Wednesday through to Friday/Saturday at least!Interesting viewing for all you Lothian/Borders/Fife/Aberdeenshire/Moray ladies and gents living on high ground - Thursday night/Friday morning holds some wintry promise at the moment.
Still a long way out but nice to see!
There are going to be plenty of very snowy hilltops/mountains throughout Scotland by the end of this week with this expected pattern.
http://mwis.org.uk//icon/favicon-128.png Home Page
MWIS.ORG.UKPlanning Outlook
A change to sustained cold conditions arrives from the northwest during midweek. Higher mountains becoming persistently frozen, likely into the weekend and beyond. Low pressure will drift slowly southwards across Britain. Widespread areas of precipitation, widely snow on higher terrain - a mix of rain, sleet and snow lower down. Wind likely to vary considerably. May eventually turn toward east or northeasterlies. Chilly conditions are likely to prevail through early December.
Currently working from home - excited to get out and about up the hills (locally of course) midweek onwards to at least have a crunchy dusting under my feet!
Plus you can’t beat a snow/wintry shower cloudscape - February was the last time I seen one of those here!
It is not quite December 2010 but at least we actually have some potential wintry weather to discuss/look forward to.
All the best!
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Morning all!
Models/charts still flapping about with regards to details/track Thursday/Friday/Saturday but to be expected at this range.
UKM0 04/12 at 01:00
UKV 04/12 at 00:00
UKMO 05/12 at 01:00
UKV 05/12 at 0:00
As ever at this range...subject to change.
Snow parameters combined for low ground are extremely marginal but you just never know! Could be rain, sleet or brief snowfall - high ground most at risk.Just for fun the lying snow depth (mm) chart for the latest run - up to 05/12 at 03:00.
Have a good day everyone!
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Evening all
NW UK are still in the game for wintry showers to fairly low levels - Wednesday afternoon through to Thursday morning.
Thursday night through Friday is a mess - rain, sleet, snow, kitchen sink, washing machine could pop up anywhere from Northern Scotland to Southern England!
This period is still up for grabs with regards to wintry potential - higher ground the better but who knows what could happen!?UKV 15z snapshot for Friday 00:00 - quite the difference from this morning when it was all further South! This won’t be resolved for another couple of days.
Just for fun here is the lying snow depth chart (mm) for this run out to 04/12. (15:00)
Huge amounts expected over the mountains!
http://mwis.org.uk//icon/favicon-128.png Home Page
MWIS.ORG.UKPlanning outlook:
A change to sustained cold conditions arrives from the northwest during midweek. Higher mountains becoming persistently frozen, likely into the weekend and beyond. Low pressure will drift slowly southwards across Britain. Widespread areas of precipitation, widely snow on higher terrain - a mix of rain, sleet and snow lower down. Wind likely to vary considerably. May eventually turn toward east or northeasterlies. Chilly conditions are likely to prevail through early December.
Not a bad outlook either!
It all makes for a lovely seasonal start to Meteorological Winter - snow capped peaks, wintry showers, risk of snowfall and even a bit of soft hail!?
All the above within the first seven days of December - not too shabby at all.
All the best.
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Afternoon all!
Dusting off my waterproofs, snow boots, thermals, crampons and ice axe after reading this update...
All joking aside - deepest snow depths of the season so far predicted up on the mountains.
We could see twenty/twenty five centimetres of snow up on the Munro summits - especially in the NW/W.
Current forecast is conductive to those totals - temporary blizzard conditions as well.Wee lying snow depth (mm) chart out to Thursday at 15:00 - snowfall begins over high ground Wednesday afternoon.
Exciting stuff for December!
Wee mention for Aboyne overnight as well - baltic!
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On 28/11/2020 at 07:17, Mr Frost said:Morning all!
Getting slightly excited now!
Latest UKV chart snapshots below for Thursday at 0:00
OC Isotherm (m)
Dewpoint Temperature (c)
850HPA Temp
528 dam line digging South - much lower for NW/N Scotland.
Precipitation Type:
That is what I call a proper start to Winter - showers get going late Wednesday afternoon.
Snowfall down to very low levels in parts of Scotland, risk of wintry (maybe even snow) showers for other areas such as NW/N England, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Wales (hopefully all the other areas would get something later on) - could see plenty of snowfall over higher hills/mountains throughout the UK and Ireland.
Bit of instability as well with this flow - thunder/lightning/graupel risk.Morning all!
Twenty four hours on...barely a change on the latest UKV run for Thursday at 0:00.
Showers really get going Wednesday afternoon/evening onwards! Thursday is not too shabby either! Wintry showers risk on fairly low ground in those areas previously mentioned - especially through Thursday.
Big change on my regional Met Office outlook this morning.
Wee mention for this - rainfall to snowfall over high ground (sleet low ground - maybe even wet snow) down South early Friday AM:
Very marginal for low ground but one to watch.
Friday snapshots for 03:00
As ever these charts are subject to change at this range - not a bad start to Winter model viewing...radar watching begins later Wednesday for some of us.
Have a good Sunday!
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26 minutes ago, 101_North said:
Not sure I'm looking forward to any sleety pish next week. After the last few weeks I'd settle for an extended period of blue sky and frosts!
Cmon mate - sleety pish could be the most we see this Winter! Embrace it.
We don’t all have the luxury of living at 1230 meters above sea level @CatchMyDrift - nice wee profile update there! Rubbing our faces right in it!
Current weather here 5C and low cloud/mist clearing - lovely day ahead for many of us with plenty of sunshine in the afternoon which I will gladly take! Been a gloomy/mundane/wet Autumn around these parts.
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Morning all!
Hope you are well!
Keep an eye on Wednesday (02/12) afternoon/evening onwards for our next risk of wintry potential on low ground.
Latest UKMO run is a bit messy but the general theme is...we have a chance!
UKMO 120:
UKMO 144:
Latest UKV chart snapshots below for 03:00 on Thursday.
Oc Isotherm (m)
Dewpoint temperature (c)
500-1000hpa Thickness (dam)
850HPA temp and Sea level pressure
Precipitation Type
This is still a long way out of course so subject to change - above charts tick all the snowy boxes...would be a great start to Meteorological Winter!
Have a good weekend everyone!
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Morning all!
Getting slightly excited now!
Latest UKV chart snapshots below for Thursday at 0:00
OC Isotherm (m)
Dewpoint Temperature (c)
850HPA Temp
528 dam line digging South - much lower for NW/N Scotland.
Precipitation Type:
That is what I call a proper start to Winter - showers get going late Wednesday afternoon.
Snowfall down to very low levels in parts of Scotland, risk of wintry (maybe even snow) showers for other areas such as NW/N England, Northern Ireland, Ireland and Wales (hopefully all the other areas would get something later on) - could see plenty of snowfall over higher hills/mountains throughout the UK and Ireland.
Bit of instability as well with this flow - thunder/lightning/graupel risk.All the above subject to change at this range but worth keeping an eye on - especially with the UKMO 120/144 charts this morning.
UKMO 120:
UKMO 144:
Lovely stuff for December if this becomes reality!
Have a good weekend everyone - all the best!
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Oh god not the ECM snow depth charts again!
Still waiting on this arriving from the 21/11:
And this from 23/11:
If there are any new members browsing the thread...only trust those when they are within the forty eight hours range! Then on the predicted day look out the window/radar watching for confirmation!
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11 hours ago, topo said:
A very warm November in Scandinavia, possibly one of the warmest ever.
The first week of December seems also warmer than normal with southern winds AGAIN!!
I can't remember the last time of northern winds here.
All in all, last year's tragedy continues...
If I was you I’d look for a move further North...Northern Finland for example.
Proper late Autumn/Winter weather - lovely outlook as well!
Once again...all together now... Jingle bells...Jingle bells...jingle all the way...
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Morning all!
Still hoping for something wintry to arrive from the NW/N during the first three weeks of December - this current Easterly breeze can do one! Snowfall only please from that direction!
Overnight into Friday will be very chilly again for most (probably the coldest night of this wee spell) - risk of fog/freezing fog forming for a few of us. (Big fan of freezing fog scenes)
Friday snapshot 03:00 (All charts below from the UKV)
Looking further into the weekend could be quite a pleasant day for Newquay with sunshine and temperature of 12/13C! Heathrow could see 10/11C.
Saturday snapshot 15:00
Sunday a wee bit cooler - nothing too exciting going on.Sunday snapshot 15:00
Into the new week Monday is just a bit meh - drizzly/soggy for many.Monday snapshot 15:00
So yes we have seen/will see a frost or two and fog/freezing fog - mostly in the morning.
Daytime wise it’s all fairly bog standard stuff.Meteorological Winter starts on Tuesday - hopefully lowland snowfall for the UK and Ireland somewhere through December! Always enjoy browsing the regional threads to look at the snowy pictures! It has been a while since we had a widespread event - let this December change that please!
All the best to you all and have a good weekend!
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Morning all
This will do!
You guessed it...ECM day ten!
North:
South:
Full UK and Ireland view!
That is how you start Meteorological Winter! Let’s count this down now into the reliable timeframe...
Have a good day everyone!
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Here are the more interesting charts from the latest ECM Monthly Temperature (T2m) anomalies - weekly breakdown below:
30/11 to 06/12:
07/12 to 13/12:
14/12 to 20/12:
I will take that - no blowtorch signal and average for us...that at least gives us a chance of a wintry snap during the above period. (Last week of December into January trending slightly above average)
Not really interested/excited about the upcoming seasonal spell - let’s be honest daytime maximums of 5/6C in the North and 7/8/9C in the South through Thursday to Sunday.
Here is my forecast for up here:
Risk of frosts UK and Ireland wide which will be lovely - cloud lingering overnight/clear spells/fog as to who gets lucky!
Wee snapshot of Thursday at 00:00 from the UKV:
One week left until the official start of Meteorological Winter - would be nice to see some wintry weather (lowland snowfall) appear on the charts within the next two/three weeks! (Reliable timeframe of forty eight hours )
Proper cold PM NW’ly or Arctic N’ly please to get us started - seems the best bet at the moment!
All the best to you all.
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Morning all
Hope everyone is well.
Currently 7C here...blue sky one minute...heavy shower the next!
Looking forward not much excitement from a wintry perspective - lowland snowfall wise.
Risk of a frost overnight for some!
Monday 04:00
Monday afternoon soaking for the West.
14:00
Tuesday afternoon a more widespread soaking - maybe a wee squall line going through as well.
12:00
Much better for Wednesday and Thursday with sunshine, chilly days and cold/frosty nights.
UKMO 144 is a bit meh:
ECM 240 is also a bit meh:
Up on the mountains it is a different story - risk of snowfall on and off through the week. (Mainly above 600/700 meters)
Glencoe looking wintry this morning:
https://www.glencoemountain.co.uk/webcams/
Mountains forecast:
Planning Outlook
Next week, briefly higher temperatures on Monday, then most higher mountains of Britain likely to drop back below freezing for several days ahead. Precipitation remaining frequent throughout next week, focused on western mountains - sometimes snow or hail. Confidence of forecast detail becomes low later in the week, with some hints of higher pressure, but many indications staying unsettled.
On that note I am off to apply for an Elf job at Santa Claus village in Rovaniemi, Lapland.
All the best!Edit: @CatchMyDrift lovely pictures as usual - much prefer snowy scenes from Canada though! - hopefully the big move for you is soon.
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Morning all!
ECM 240 (I know...I know ) seems the way forward at the moment - from a purely IMBY perspective I am banking that all day long.
Local higher hills/mountains for a snowy walk/hike at least!You know what they say...one man’s crock of is another man’s treasure...
Have a good day everyone and hopefully we get some eye candy (cold/snow) UK and Ireland wide into a reliable timeframe within the next couple/few weeks at least.
Not excluding the risk of wintry potential tonight/tomorrow as discussed in previous posts.All the best!
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55 minutes ago, SLEETY said:
Nothing interesting regarding cold for at least the next 1o days now.
Keep the faith mate! Always a wee risk of some wintry showers down South over high ground on Thursday. (AM especially)
Depends how far South these showers push and if this chart will actually become reality!
Thursday 09:00
Wee bit of green there on the above chart for high ground of Wales and North York Moors - the cold upper 850HPA temps also make it pretty far South during the afternoon.
You never know - could be some wintry cloudscapes/hail/thunder wherever these showers turn up on low ground in the North, South, East or West.
Risk of frost on Thursday night/Friday morning also.
Best we can hope for at the moment and it is still Autumn.
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Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by Mr Frost
Tomorrow afternoon through to Thursday lunchtime frequent snow/wintry showers event is now in the bag - radar/lamp post’s at the ready for that tomorrow.
Thursday night through to Friday lunchtime - snowfall to rainfall event is still up for grabs.
As always the higher you live - the better! However - anyone under this could see a couple of centimetres to fairly low ground.
It has been a consistent signal now throughout the last twenty four hours runs - hopefully it stays that way until the actual day!
Latest snapshots below:
Friday 03:00
06:00
09:00
Good thing is pretty much all of Scotland is at risk of snowfall between tomorrow and Friday - which means all the snow lovers in this thread have at least a wee chance!