Mr Frost

January 6, 2021

42 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

A quick walk up the Fairy Glen this afternoon was rewarding... Apparently it was around -6C near here at dawn and only reached 0C about the time I was there mid afternoon. Much of the ice will be gone very soon.

Incredible - spent about five minutes looking at those! Amazing captures.

Sitting here watching the radar as it edges closer to me...will it be drizzle!? sleet!? dusting of snowfall!? Ah the excitement of it all!

Early hours of the morning look interesting - whoever ends up under the heavier precipitation will receive the most white gold. @Kirkcaldy Weather good stuff for Kirkcaldy there. (Hopefully not heavy sleet!)

Met Office/UKV snapshots.

03:00

Tomorrow evening through to Friday morning could be snowmageddon for parts of the N/NE - risk there of beefy streamers setting up. (Plenty more showing in the timeframes that follow below)

18:00

All the best to you all.

January 6, 2021

Morning all

Lowest temperature recorded is -12.2C at Loch Glascarnoch - coldest night/morning of Winter so far. (No confirmation from Met Office yet)

Very cold out there for many of us!

Looking at tonight into Thursday morning...

Met Office/UKV

18:00

21:00

Thursday 00:00

03:00

06:00

Dusting for many of us up to that stage - slight to moderate accumulations for anyone who gets under the heavier stuff.
It does all look for the most part...light precipitation but at least almost all the snow parameters scream snowfall at the moment!

Thursday night into Friday morning these charts have been consistent for days now with regards to heavy snow showers for parts of the NW/N/NE (isolated further South) - they have upped the ante this morning.

Thursday 21:00

Friday 02:00

850HPA temperatures of -9/-10/-11

06:00

Predicted temperature snapshot for 06:00 (wee bit of purple shading again there! -14C possible)

All the above charts subject to change/timing of course - plenty of wintry/snowy potential over the next couple of days!

Good luck everyone!

January 5, 2021

Big chance overnight of smashing our current lowest temperature of Winter so far which is this:

Tiny wee shade of purple on the predicted temperature map below in the North West Highlands overnight - could get down to -13 to -14C.

Wednesday 03:00

One to keep an eye on.

January 5, 2021

This current cold spell really is quite impressive - certainly from a below average temperatures point of view.

Still plenty of cold days/nights ahead right through to Sunday.

Few UKV predicted temperature snapshots:

Wednesday 03:00 - tiny shades of purple showing there...-14C possible in the North West Highlands.

Thursday 03:00

Friday 03:00

Saturday 03:00

Sunday 03:00

Our lowest temperature of Winter so far was -10.2C in Dalwhinnie.

That could be smashed overnight with a -12 to -14C up in the North West Highlands - one to keep an eye on.

January 5, 2021

Outrageous Met Office update...never seen them go into so much detail.

Sounds very much like a high risk/high reward outlook.

Tuesday 19 Jan -Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses meet.

Hopefully it becomes reality and the Scottish thread gets the goods!

January 4, 2021

6 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Fog /mist/low cloud again this morning and has lasted all day .Frost overnight lifted and we have been about 2c all day. Cattle really going through the bedding straw with such damp conditions. Currently 1.5c. Put up a wee solar panel for the calving camera in the middle of December and it has only charged on two days since then. A realy dreich few weeks.

Yes you can see on these charts below the Moray Firth was warmer and wetter than average for December - against 1981-2010.

Very wet in the NE and Eastern parts in general.

Sunshine duration against 1981-2010 - dull and gloomy month for most.

All very average for me!

2020 gave us three below average months - March, July and October.
Mean temperatures against 1981-2010 average.

January 3, 2021

1 hour ago, edo said:

from what i can tell, models a bit all over the place and we remain cold throughout but no deep cold or major snowstorms but still potential and latest gfs actually upgrades uppers on tuesday with things looking less marginal.....

Great summary there mate - absolutely spot on.

Basically Monday lunchtime through to Wednesday morning looks good for sleet/snow showers on and off (add in overnight into tomorrow morning for rain/sleet/graupel) - rainfall in the earlier period of this but 850HPA temperatures of -8 (-9 isn’t far away) start appearing for Eastern Scotland through Monday evening well into Tuesday (see chart below for example...-8 also makes it through to Central parts before this timeframe) - as we all know many more snow parameters to take into consideration...it is a start though! (Higher ground the better of course)

Monday to Friday is cold throughout - wouldn’t look much further than that at the moment as the models/charts look a bit messy.

Latest UKV predicted temperature snapshots for the week ahead - as ever subject to change.

Monday 12:00

Tuesday 12:00

Wednesday 12:00

Thursday 12:00

Friday could be the coldest day of the week!

03:00 you can see those really cold 850HPA temperatures (-11) arriving from the N/NNE alongside snow showers.

12:00 temperature

Impressive/prolonged/below average cold spell we are currently in and it continues for the foreseeable.

January 3, 2021

45 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

then there’s Thursday

It better not be another wintry mix! Would be nice to have an all snow (fairly widespread) Scotland event.

Have been keeping an eye on it the last couple of days.

Few snapshots:

Thursday 03:00

06:00

Interesting to see what becomes of all this on the day!

Colder air/wintry showers then arrive as it clears through.

18:00

All ties in nicely with this!

Back to the here and now and looking further West - risk of wintry/snow showers filtering through to the Glasgow, North and South Lanarkshire areas over the next forty eight hours.
Wouldn’t be surprised if some of us get a wee surprise dusting at some point.

I am enjoying the endless days of sunshine, few ice days and temperatures well below freezing overnight but it is getting a wee bit boring now - couple/few centimetres for low ground here would be lovely!

Also noticed Glasgow Airport got down to -8c this morning. Not bad at all!

January 3, 2021

Morning all!

Coldest morning so far here this Winter! -5c!

Glorious Winter day ahead.

January 2, 2021

Morning all

Scottish Borders and East Lothian looks a great place to be over the next few days - heavy frequent showers of sleet/snowfall to low levels.
Wee bit marginal at times but when is it ever not nowadays!

Few UKV snapshots:

Tomorrow 08:00

Monday 03:00

Risk of rain/sleet/snowfall to low levels continues through the first half of the week - NE/E/SE obviously higher risk due to the forecast wind direction.
Hopefully these showers move much further inland so the rest of us can join in!

IMBY keeping an eye on this - best bet for snowfall further West at the moment!

Thursday 03:00

Then into Friday UKMO keeps us cold with further wintry potential.

Then from that point I will take this for mid month onwards - maybe linked to the SSW!? @lorenzo BFTE late January/early February!?

Met Office outlook:

Friday 15 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

During the middle of January unsettled conditions are likely to affect southern and central parts of the UK with drier weather expected for the north and west. Whilst generally remaining colder than average some milder interludes are possible in the south. Toward the end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Sat 2 Jan 2021

@Big Innes Madori cracking views from the top of that hill mate - enjoyed those pictures! You can see for miles in every direction!

January 1, 2021

All joking aside though - definitely a risk of Kent streamers (other areas also of course!) setting up...especially Tuesday/Wednesday.

Few UKV snapshots from the 15z run for 06/01 at 12:00

Precipitation type:

850HPA and sea level pressure:

Dewpoint temperature (c)

500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

850-1000hpa thickness (m)

Higher ground favoured but surely a dusting for low ground can’t be ruled out at some stage through the first half of next week at least!?

All the best to you folk down there - hopefully a wee upgrade nearer the time!

January 1, 2021

Just browsed the latest UKV run and there is plenty of sleet/snow showers showing - especially Eastern parts of the UK through next week as expected,

Here is the lying snow depth chart for this run out to 06/01 15:00:

Look closer...one for the SE ladies and gents here...

It’s coming @Paul Sherman @Steve Murr

January 1, 2021

Morning!

Happy New Year to you all!

Few UKV snapshots looking at next week - in the order of precipitation type, 850HPA temperatures, Thickness (dam) and Dewpoint temperatures (c)

04/01 03:00

05/01 03:00

06/01 03:00

As this range of course all the above subject to change/detail/timing - remember plenty of wintry/snow showers packing in between all those timeframes above.

Rain, sleet and snowfall to low levels - higher ground always the best bet of course for decent accumulations into next week.

Radar/lamppost watching for many - exciting start to the New Year for a cold/snow lover! All this ahead of us...meanwhile many Netweather members/guests have snowfall on the ground at the moment.

And how about these current minimum temperatures!? Exeter and Bournemouth colder than Cairn Gorm summit! Very impressive.

Not a bad mountains forecast going forward!

Home Page

MWIS.ORG.UK

Planning Outlook

Staying generally cold well into January, with mountain terrain staying frozen and snow covered. Hard frosts this weekend, below -10C inland Highland glens. East or northeasterly winds becoming established during the week ahead, focusing snow on eastern areas from the Borders to the Pennines, sometimes also Wales. Extensive low cloud may develop. Western Scotland in particular often dry and sunnier. Forecast details become uncertain later in the week.

All the best to you all!

December 31, 2020

Tell you what is good about this current spell and the outlook - anyone with a semi-decent depth of snowfall on the ground will keep it for a long time! Hopefully any rainfall/sleet does not do any damage within the next couple/few hours.

I know some of you have already had snowfall on the ground for a few days now - especially our higher ground folk.

Overnight is cold again for many and then daytime temperatures start to plummet again. (Risk of ice days return for some) @shuggee more of those Narnia forest pictures please over the coming days/weeks!

Friday 12:00

Saturday 12:00

Beyond that another snowfall/wintry showers/steamers risk through later Sunday/Monday.
All roads lead to cold at the moment.

December 30, 2020

Wee bit to go before we break any records...

Scotland: Lowest daily minimum temperature records:

December:

-27.2°C

30/12/1995 Altnaharra (Highland)

January:

-27.2°C

10/01/1982 Braemar (Aberdeenshire)

February:

-27.2°C

11/02/1885 Braemar (Aberdeenshire)

I never knew we had recorded our lowest ever temperature in all three Winter months - my mind has been blown.

Source:

UK climate extremes

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

UK climate extremes

December 30, 2020

Latest UKV snapshots for 04/01 15:00

At least there is a risk of heavy snow showers there - marginal yes but it’s getting to the stage some folk in SE England are getting a wee bit desperate - which is fair enough.

If I was living down there I would rather have a risk of wintry precipitation than absolutely nothing at all - above charts have a bit of potential! Few tweaks here and there nearer the time and you are in business.
@Kentspur @Tim Bland @Daniel* I am rooting for you lads - see you posting on here daily and always full of optimism and glass half full! Let’s hope you get the rewards this Winter. (That goes for anyone else who is snow starved!)

@bluearmy loving those ECM snow charts for IMBY - keep them coming mate.

December 30, 2020

15 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Does not look on the right side of margin too me?

Lack of significant cold air could be an issue next week I suspect, winds off a warm North Sea, strong winds so plenty of mixing of the air. You need something like the 18Z GFS where it was slacker and slightly colder. From my experiences living in the NE uppers of - 7 with winds off the sea is not cold enough for snow I'm afraid.

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

normally has to be -10, for convective snow

Not this old chestnut again.

Parts of Edinburgh got two inches of settling snowfall with 850HPA temperatures of -2 to -4 the other day! @Kirkcaldy Weather already mentioned this I think - from the North Sea!

Those snow showers even reached the West Coast of Scotland to sea level...from the North Sea!

There are many more snow parameters than just 850HPA’s as we all know.

Let’s just see what happens rather than writing everything off five days before a potential chart becomes reality - surely as a snow/cold lover you hope for the best rather than always expecting doom/worst outcome!

December 30, 2020

Morning all

Hope you are well!

Cold/wintry for many at the moment and the risk of wintry hazards (new Met Office buzzword for Winter 2020/21 ) for the foreseeable future - what’s not to love!?

Fantastic model/chart viewing at the moment - sleet/snowfall risk to low levels throughout the UK and Ireland for the remainder of this week/weekend.

Day five is catching my eye this morning!

ECM 04/01 01:00

UKMO 04/01 01:00

UKV - 04/01 03:00

All the above subject to change at this range but what an outlook for a cold/snow lover at the moment!

All the best to you all!

December 30, 2020

Morning all!

-3c currently!

Great looking models/charts this morning - plenty of snow opportunities through today, rest of this week and into the weekend!

This caught my eye for early next week!

ECM for 04/01 00:00

UKV for 04/01 03:00

Lovely to see cold/wintry weather currently and for the foreseeable future!

December 29, 2020

Morning all

As expected the precipitation didn’t reach here in the early hours - went SW of me! Great fun though and a wee surprise snowfall for many.

Woke up to a lovely ground frost at least - current temperature is just above freezing! Argyll hills/mountains still looking great above four/five hundred meters - thick white blanket the last few days with not much melt at all. (Under normal circumstances I would be hiking up there to enjoy it!)

Looking ahead wintry showers throughout today in the NW/N/NE.

Tomorrow maybe a bit more widespread/further South.

Few UKV/Met Office snapshots:

Wednesday 09:00

Predicted temperatures for 12:00 - maybe a wee ice day for many.

18:00

Thursday is looking a wee bit warmer and maybe more rainfall (away from higher ground) than sleet/snowfall from browsing the snow parameters- starts off cold though first thing.

09:00

12:00

Predicted temperatures for 12:00

Hopefully more wintry surprises/snowfall for some over the next few days!

December 28, 2020

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies!

Weekly breakdown:

28/12 to 03/01

04/01 to 10/01

11/01 to 17/01

18/01 to 24/01

25/01 to 31/01

01/02 to 07/02

December 27, 2020

Evening all

Absolute nightmare trying to keep up with this thread nowadays - @Scott Ingham I am blaming you mate - every page has about five posts from you!

Couple of potential wintry mix events showing up for the coming week.

UKV snapshots below:

28/12 18:00

31/12 06:00

Would be lovely to see this chart below for the first day of 2021!

01/01 15:00

Fantastic mountains forecast for the foreseeable!

Home Page

MWIS.ORG.UK

Planning Outlook

A cold end to the year, and indications favour sub-zero conditions prevailing on the mountains well into January. Periods of snow which will often fall and lie to low levels. Substantial accumulations of snow on many mountains. Clearer conditions at times with sunshine. Wind speeds varied, some marked lulls. Frost common into valleys and glens.

Great outlook at the moment - all roads lead to cold...hopefully plenty of lowland snowfall as well UK and Ireland wide!

All the best to you all!

December 27, 2020

Afternoon all

Baltic out there! Currently 2C with a feels like temperature in that raw wind of -3C.

Rain, sleet, snow and hail today overhead.
Pulse type showers rolling though and then off into the distance.

Perfect Winter day!

Tonight still holds much interest - track/snowfall amounts still undecided!

UKV/Met Office snapshots below for 21:00:

All the best and good luck again!

December 26, 2020

On 24/12/2020 at 14:38, Sceptical said:

Northen facing hills took a bit of a hammering earlier on today. I was hill walking yesterday and there wasn't a hint of snow. Much different today with decent accumulations. Evidence of drifting with elevation, approaching the tops, blowing powder snow.

On the descent, bumped into a couple of cross country skiers heading up.

Just awesome!

A few pictures:

On 25/12/2020 at 11:15, Ravelin said:

We got a lovely Xmas gift from Mother Nature when we opened the curtains this morning....

I hope Santa was kind to everyone. I hope you all have a great day, don't get too stuffed, or too tipsy.

First of all these two posts/pictures above - perfect Christmas Eve and Christmas Day scenes! That is seriously the absolute dream - wonderful/stunning festive pictures there! Thanks for sharing those with us.

Hope everyone on this thread had a wonderful Christmas!

How exciting is the current outlook!?

The risk of heavy, thundery wintry/snow showers tomorrow for starters.

UKV snapshots below:

27/12