Mr Frost

January 19, 2021

Morning all

Must be hell on earth being a snow lover in SW/S/SE England! Hopefully you all see some decent depths of snowfall before Winter is over.

On the plus side you get tropical days/nights in Summer - not a bad trade off! (I am a warm/hot weather lover also! )

Great Winter up here so far! I am at sea level on the West coast so not a particularly snowy spot to be in! Luckily (especially in these times) I am surrounded by hills/mountains so a local walk can take me up to high ground fairly quickly! Couple of recent pictures.

Cold with wintry potential for the foreseeable up here so not a bad outlook either! Once it gets to mid March the hunt for Spring warmth/sunshine begins for me.

All the best to you all.

January 19, 2021

@sheikhy Thursday threat of wintry potential is still there - higher ground the better for areas further South.

As always best thing to do is radar watching/looking out the window on the day!

ECM for midnight on Thursday:

UKV for the same timeframe:

One proper snowfall warning out at the moment for all that.

UKV for 06:00 on Thursday:

Wintry showers for many through the rest of Thursday and Friday.

Obviously rainfall/flooding will be the big issue today through to early morning Thursday as per all the current warnings down South - hopefully not as bad as forecast for certain areas.

All the best to you all.

January 19, 2021

Morning all!

Wee bit of wintry potential showing up further South on the UKV this morning.

Friday 18:00

21:00

Saturday 00:00

Please excuse all the charts! Trying to squeeze in a couple of snow parameters as well!

All subject to change at this range - always nice to see though!

All the best to you all!

January 18, 2021

Evening all

Hope you are all well!

Great January up here so far - couple of decent/surprise snowfalls, ice days, endless frosts and low temperatures! Proper Winter after that abysmal 2019/20 one!

Latest ECM monthly temperature (T2m) Anomalies!

Weekly breakdown below:

25/01 to 31/01

01/02 to 07/02

08/02 to 14/02

15/02 to 21/02

22/02 to 28/02

For any new members/guests browsing the thread...any shade of blue is good, white is meh and orange/red is very bad!

Will try and catch up with this thread at some stage!

All the best to you all!

January 18, 2021

Good thing is a few different models are agreeing on a more widespread snow risk - especially Thursday AM.

ECM: Thursday 00:00

03z UKV run from this morning.

Thursday 03:00

06:00

09:00

Add on the GFS and many others of course!

Excited to see what becomes of it all when the day arrives - decent Winter so far with regards to snow/surprise snowfall, ice days, frosts and low temperatures.

Decent depth of cold currently to our E/NE!

UKMO day 5 chart:

Would be lovely to tap into some deep cold (-16 to -20 850hPa temperatures) at some stage!

@Daniel* Aye mate - those ECM snow accumulations are always a bit OTT! Many of us would have experienced the snowiest Winter of all time had those been near the mark over the last couple of months!

January 18, 2021

Proper Winter storm - would love some of that snowy action!
That is a potential cracker for everyone (snow lovers) in those areas! Very jealous.

@Mair Snaw this could be you soon...

January 17, 2021

Morning all!

Took a few days off looking at the models/charts after all the surprise snowfalls recently!
Just going to wait and see what happens in the second half of the week ahead - plenty of wintry potential.

Back to this weekend - had another lovely walk/run through the snowfall here on Friday afternoon! Still proper squeaky snow in places at a modest 140 meters - not bad considering it all arrived Wednesday overnight into early Thursday.

Sadly it was all gone by Saturday morning...so it was back to the bog standard sea level walk/run! Pretty wild day with 35mph gusts and horizontal rain at times.

Today it was up the local hill (90 meters) for the walk/run - snow line over on the Cowal peninsula...patchy from about 400 meters and above!

Few glimpses of blue sky over the last few days but gloom/low cloud has been pretty constant!

Hopefully plenty of cold/wintry weather to discuss later in the new week and beyond!

All the best!

January 14, 2021

Afternoon all

Loving all the pictures!

Very local walk (17 minutes) up to Gourock golf course - snow fix sorted!

Three/four inches in the highest parts.

Highest point was glorious - could have stayed there all day.

More of these days please through the rest of the month/February at least!

All the best to you all.

January 14, 2021

Morning all!

Nice surprise this morning - wee dusting on the cars and grass.
1C and currently light snowfall.

January 13, 2021

You can tell @101_North has had a good snow month so far...noticed this at the bottom of the thread!

Latest Met Office/UKV snapshots:

00:00

03:00

06:00

Very early doors - could be a late night/early morning of radar/lamppost watching for many of you in that Amber warning! Hours and hours of snowfall potential to go - just think how wonderful it will be the moment all that rainy/sleety crud turns to proper snowfall and starts settling!

January 13, 2021

Here are the ever reliable latest Met Office videos.

Amber warning area:

Saturday snowfall risk:

January 12, 2021

Evening all

3C here today, plenty of sunshine and frost/ice hanging on in the shade.
Sadly all the snow has gone from the hills in the distance after the blowtorch/rain yesterday!

@CatchMyDrift @Kirkcaldy Weather great posts.

Predicted state of play for 15:00 tomorrow - higher ground snowfall with god knows what to low levels. (rain/freezing rain/sleet?

Met Office/UKV

Fast forward to midnight and here is the (just for fun) lying snow depth chart.

Issues for the West (other low level parts of Scotland) already discussed in previous posts and by others - few charts below for same timeframe.

Thickness (dam)

Dewpoint temperature (C)

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

850-1000hpa thickness (m)

850HPA temp and sea level pressure

Temperature

It is such a marginal event for many - higher ground the better!

It would only take the slightest tweaks here and there to deliver significant snowfall to modest levels! Especially Perthshire, parts of Stirlingshire, Tayside, Fife, Borders and North Lanarkshire.

North of the Central belt in general could do very well.

On the flip side it could be a total washout for everyone below 200 meters - no fun in discussing that in detail though!

We have already seen this Winter deliver decent depths of snowfall...that was not even forecast for many areas.
More of the same tomorrow/Thursday please!

Bring on the snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain!

All the best!

January 12, 2021

Morning all

Higher ground Scottish Borders (25cm+) and Central, Tayside & Fife (15cm+) looking good on the just for fun lying snow depth chart this morning! Out to 14/01 at 12:00.

Settling snowfall risk (5cm+) down to low levels in those areas.

Further West..summed up nicely here by the Met Office. (Might see that current snow warning shrink shortly)

All about nowcasting/radar watching Wednesday/Thursday - so close to a proper old school widespread snow event! (Prolonged moderate/heavy snowfall for hours)

All the best and good luck to everyone.

January 11, 2021

1 hour ago, Jamie M said:

264.24 kB · 0 downloads

Good FAX chart for the north, bad one for the south with constant rain in the south for days on end whilst a caking in the north.

Yes - spot on mate.

Could be an absolute pasting for the North/North East at times!

Few UKV snapshots below.

Please excuse the sheer number of charts posted...trying to squeeze in lots of wintry potential for many parts of the UK!

Wednesday 21:00

Thursday 06:00

09:00

12:00

15:00

Saturday 00:00

03:00

All the above subject to change/timing but great to see the snowfall risk (higher ground especially) once again within the semi-reliable timeframe.

Charts/models looking great in the mid/long term - lots to be excited about!

Nailed on though? Nah...let’s get these big proper snowy boom charts into a reliable timeframe before all that chat.

All the best to you all!

January 11, 2021

1 hour ago, 101_North said:

Proper autumnal pish this morning! 6c, howling wind and rain incoming! Still the potential for it to turn to snow on the backedge later as the temp drops! Met have heavy snow symbols for this evening here but we'll see. Hard to imagine now as it feel's so different to only a few days ago!

Tell you what mate you are definitely in with a shout from browsing the models this morning - good luck!

Met Office/UKV

21:00

Looking further ahead to Wednesday/Thursday it is so close to a very decent widespread snow event!
West/Central parts much higher ground/hills during Wednesday but as we go through the early hours of Thursday...150/200 meters looking good at this stage.

North/East parts best chance for low level snowfall and quicker transition from rainfall to sleet/snowfall during Wednesday into Thursday.

@Kirkcaldy Weather mentioned yesterday about the front stalling - stall is certainly does from current output!

Wednesday 06:00

15:00

21:00

Thursday 06:00

09:00

Very cold as well.

12:00

All the above subject to change/timing - wintry potential is certainly there for many of us as we go through Wednesday into Thursday.

All the best!

January 10, 2021

Morning all

Very tropical 5C here this morning - dare I say it feels quite mild/warm compared to the last two weeks!

Would be great to see some reports/pictures later from any of our Shetland Islands folk - forecast for frequent/heavy snow showers.

On the mainland we have the rainfall to snowfall potential event tomorrow - Highlands and higher parts of Aberdeenshire most at risk and then into the evening/night maybe a bit of sleet/snowfall for the usual guys @101_North @Penicuikblizzard @Polar Side

Monday 14:00

16:00

22:00

Looking further ahead into Wednesday...the wintry mix/snowfall is now trending to that old higher ground/hills nonsense!

Hopefully when the day arrives we can get an hour or two of snowfall to fairly low ground (wet bulb/dewpoints not looking great for parts of the West) - colder 850HPA temperatures are just off the East coast on these current charts.

All subject to change at this range.

06:00

15:00

All the best to you all.

January 9, 2021

Morning all

Great pictures again!

1C here currently but expected to reach 5C with rainfall by late afternoon.

Very impressive minimum temperatures.

UKV temperature snapshots for the next few days.

Sunday 12:00

Monday 12:00

Tuesday 12:00

Wednesday currently our best hope for a fairly widespread wintry mix/snowfall - morning especially. (Higher ground the better)

03:00

06:00

12:00

Get out and enjoy that lovely snowfall while you can...slow thaw will begin shortly! Our low level folk in the West, Central and East most at risk of course.

All the best and have a good weekend!

January 8, 2021

Evening all

UKMO 120: 13:00

UKV same day:

Wednesday 09:00

12:00

15:00

With regards to this mornings run that cold air is much further West - dumping for higher ground somewhere! Lower ground...TBC!

Interesting to follow over the next few days!

Have a good weekend!

Cheers!

January 8, 2021

Morning all

Lovely pictures - incredible stuff really as once again the Met Office are left with egg on their faces.

Non forecast decent depths of snow through the Glasgow area for example and further SW - noticed they issued sneaky warnings in the early hours of the morning.
I have certainly learned more than ever just to keep an eye on the radar - all about nowcasting on the day when snowfall is concerned!

With regards to keeping an eye on the radar overnight...wee triangle is my location...

00:00 and 01:00 earlier this morning.

The Met Office battleground outlook is starting to show in the models - next week for example! Higher ground of the North and North East favoured at this stage.

All subject to change at this range and the slightest tweaks could mean lots of snowfall or lots of rainfall.

Monday 15:00

Wednesday 03:00

January 8, 2021

Morning all

Let the starter battle commence...

Main battle risk hopefully begins in the mid term.

Few UKV snapshots:

Monday 15:00

Tuesday 15:00

Wednesday 03:00

Charts as always subject to change at this range but you can see the potential - slightest tweaks in real-time would of course bring more of the UK into the wintry risk.
This is just for the first half of next week - more of the same in the extended outlook across many models/charts this morning from North to South.

Exciting for us all (snow lovers) - high risk/high reward but I am sure many of us would take that all day long...for the risk/chance of significant snowfall.

All the best to you all.

January 7, 2021

1 hour ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Forget stalling that front was travelling! models really didn’t have it moving across the country anywhere near as fast and I think that was the main spoiler as it didn’t allow the temperatures and dewpoints to drop as well as they could have, I had a dusting here at about 2am waited up another half hour then seen my dewpoint go above zero so called it a night, really happy u got some @Hawesy the stuff here was similar to the pic @Stormeh posted least it’s another one to go on the lying snow day tally a bit of a surprise to see this on latest run for tonight, it’s another one for @LomondSnowstorm list a feature coming from the north this time a trough let’s see what it’s capable of but could be another covering for some and looking like another minus double digit night further west @shuggee get this one framed

That gif is the best outcome for more folk in here to see snowfall - hopefully it becomes reality!

Latest Met Office/UKV latest is basically the same as the warning.

@Hawesy could yet be clipped with more sleet/snowfall tonight!

21:00

Inland areas of Midlothian, East Lothian and Scottish Borders (North and East) look most at risk for snowfall. (Excluding everywhere else in Scotland from this post - just commenting on the SE risk)

22:00

23:00

00:00

You can also see some heavy snow showers popping up further South and quite a far way West.

Plenty of heavy/intense precipitation getting wasted over the North Sea on the above charts - real-time if this is slightly further West guys like @101_North and @Polar Side might YET AGAIN have their 500th decent snowfall of the Winter so far.

Good luck to you all! Model/chart fatigue has now truly set in for me - working from home isn’t so great after all!

January 7, 2021

Morning all

Few Met Office/UKV snapshots for tomorrow - could be our last fairly widespread UK snowfall/wintry mix of this current cold spell.

Friday 03:00

06:00

09:00

12:00

17:00

Good luck to you all!

January 7, 2021

23 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Thats it im done... congratulations you are no longer the least snawy memeber on here... now when do i get my

If you don’t see falling snowfall at least later today into tomorrow morning it is definitely time to move mate!

Everything points to a dusting at least for Ellon...although are you quite near the coast!?

Just for fun the lying snow depth chart out to 08:00 tomorrow.

Mon the Ellon!

If you receive nothing...there will be plenty to the W/SW of you - I am sure @Ravelin would let you spend a night in his shed.

January 7, 2021

51 minutes ago, A Winter's Tale said:

4.5cm of lying snow this morning which is the best since March 2018.

Jammy git - hearing quite a few places have snowfall on the ground! Paisley for example have a couple of centimetres. (Report from my aunt this morning - picture from her included. )

Bishopton as well with snow on the ground - few inland West/Central parts have done okay.

Started off light snow here, sleet, drizzle and then back to light snow as it departed! Expected here at sea level on the coast.

Quick look ahead through later today into tomorrow morning:

Met Office/UKV

15:00

21:00

Friday 00:00