Alex95

Last time snow came down from Scotland was February 12th this year, but there was 3 inches here and 9 inches in parts of Northumberland. That was a good, and completely unforecasted event. I only knew it was going to snow when the flakes starting falling. Could the event you're talking about be Easter Sunday 2008?

How kind I wish there was someone with more meteorological knowledge though

I was getting worried by the beeb forecasts for the 2nd Feb this year (broadcast on the 1st), the snow showers seemed quite sparse. However on the morning of the 2nd, the forecast was much, much snowier. Goes to show that in these situations precipitation can be underestimated. Admittedly even the first forecast was much better than the one for tomorrow.

All day tomorrow I expect showers to be wintry, certainly snow at times but I think it will struggle to settle. Maybe a few cm on Friday, but nothing too significant up here I would have though, though Saturday could be better. Having said that, precipitation could be underestimated for Thursday night, there is better chance of settling snow then and the northeasterly appears to only die down during Friday morning.

Going by what he said (and what I think) up to 5cm by Friday, maybe more over the weekend though from that northerly.

Ah playing it safe, 23:59 and you can say you said tomorrow, 00:01 and you can say you were just 1 minute off! <_<

Temp. dropped to 2.9°C, but now its back to 3.2°C so no snow here tonight, not that I ever expected any. Will the snow start tomorrow evening, or will we be made to wait until Thursday? <_<

lol

I think she usually does, I've noticed rather than saying 'colder in the east', she'll look at the graphics and read out 'colder at Newcastle and Berwick' or whatever. A good forecaster should provide their own opinion, I could have looked at the graphics and given a forecast as good as that myself.

Look North weather just been on, 5-10cm expected for Thurs + Fri (recited from METO advisory), then rain on Saturday Still just 2/3°C though so I think that may change.

I wonder if thundersnow will occur during this easterly? SSTs are quite high, and last February there was some. I've been sceptical of this easterly because it is only mid December, but if this exact situation occurred in February I would be more excited. If anything it could be better than if it occurred during late winter due to the low angle of the sun, but I'm playing it safe by predicting 1-2 inches. If it was February I'd be inclined to predict 2-4 inches by Friday.

Lets see what the ECM wants to give us, rolling out soon...

I still think those depths are highly over estimated I'm afraid. Maybe 5cm by Friday, 10cm in prone spots like Consett, Stanley etc. with a further 5-10cm over the weekend. That isn't to say I expect final depths to be 10-20cm, I just wouldn't rule it out. Most places at low levels could get 5-10cm imo by Sunday morning.

Looking at the precipitation forecasts I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of inches on Friday, and if we did get a decent covering before Saturday that band of snow could cause some real problems. Before today I thought the easterly was going to be cold and dry with a few snow showers providing nothing more than a dusting. Looking forward to tomorrow when any snow on Thursday will show up on the BBC maps properly. That's if it is forecasted properly of course :o

I'm now slightly more hopeful about the easterly, probably not that much snow but there have been some surprise snowfalls from easterlies in the past, sometimes 6 inches without any warning just an hour in advance. That cold front on Saturday does bear some similarities to January 2004, that was a good event around here.

No not from the easterly I don't think, but that northerly is predicted to set in on Saturday without any milder weather since the easterly, and if there is a potent cold front moving southwards there could be a fair amount. Lets say 2 inches fall from the easterly, then 3 inches from the cold front and snow showers over the weekend, the final total would be 5 inches I'm sceptic about this easterly though anyway, doubt it will deliver much. It looks too brief.

Yes I doubt 10 inches will fall, but look who will have an egg on their face if we get dragged into a December 1981 type scenario 3 inches is my punt for most towns though, though I'd say more in prone spots. Places in rural Northumberland / County Durham could quite easily get 5 inches, and high ground could get more as its snowing at Alston for instance already I believe.

Wintry showers towards the end of the week becoming more snow than rain as time goes on. They will be starting to die back shortly after they turn to snow though so accumulations will probably be light. At the weekend there is the possibility of more substantial snow once that cold air is in place in time for the northerly, but we won't know the positioning of heavy precipitation until the day before imo. Be patient and I'm sure you'll see some snow eventually

For people not keen on the northerly: You may remember this northerly a couple of years ago? Blizzards swept down from Scotland covering all of the region despite winds being west of due north. Where I was in Cumbria 2 inches fell, whilst people became stranded on the A66 and A69 just 2 hours after I crossed the the country on the A69. Nothing settled in Newcastle as far as I'm aware though. That was a toppler with warm ground temperatures, imagine what a more prolonged northerly could produce after the easterly cools the ground! Even Newcastle would've seen a few inches. :lol:

I know people in Hartlepool who speak like that, but I think it various a lot as some people's accent may not be very strong so you wouldn't hear it as clearly as that. This is off topic anyway, and I don't want to be involved in any heated arguments

It's a long time since we had a potent direct northerly, I think when one eventually comes along some people in the North East may be surprised by the amount of snow. Most northerlies since 2006 have either been west of due north, or not potent enough for snow. That very weak northerly on the 30th November this year contained lots of sleety showers which amounted to 8mm, if that had been more potent we'd be looking at 8cm, not to mention heavier showers due to the colder air, higher lapse rates etc. I am a little worried that this upcoming northerly is progged to be a NNW wind. Oh and the only problem with OON joining us would be that he looks for slightly different synoptics, places west of the pennines do better from a wind west of due north, whilst over here we need a wind east of due north. Apart from that I don't see why not

Ramp alert! I reckon this looks like a decent spell, a widespread dusting of snow (maybe a few cm)at the end of the week, then over the weekend some heavier falls may occur. Low levels could easily see 5-10cm by Sunday, unless we are left dry with showers out at sea. That is as far as I'm willing to look at the moment, and whilst the northerly looks a bit NNW to me, it is also very potent so troughs could move south with more organised bands of snow. There is a possibility that there will be a direct N / NNE, if that was the case I'm sure deeper accumulations will be widespread as in late Feb 2004 for example. That spell dumped 6 inches here.

If you go onto Youtube and search for "UK forecast", then select 'Today' from the drop down list labelled 'Uploaded' at the top of the page, the Country Tracks forecast is the first one. This drop down list may show 'Anytime' before you select 'today'. The second one isn't from Country Tracks, but it is similar with snow showing for the end of the week.

I think that was a northerly, but the 850s were unusually low for a northerly, widely below -10. There wasn't actually that much snow (widely 5-10cm) but the road wasn't gritted or something. I know the North East did well, I remember it.

That is the best northerly scenario you can get around here, last really good polar low was Christmas 1995, can't remember it myself as I was to little but I'm aware 10-15cm fell. IMO the key to how strong the easterly is later on this week will be how large the short wave is. If it is weak the high will topple like the GFS has been showing us, if it is bigger like it the METO model the high could get propped up, giving a more prolonged easterly. If the easterly topples a northerly will probably follow.