Alex95

Light sleet here, melting snowflakes hitting the window More rain than snow though I would say. 2.9°C, down 0.5°C in the last 20 mins EDIT: I'd say it is 60% rain and 40% snow approx.

Now THAT is a Backtrack! :winky:

That's built my hopes up massively! Temp here 2.4°C and the dew point is estimated to be -0.6 using the humidity reading of 80% on the BBC so conditions may be favourable enough for snow

The warnings for 5-10cm are for areas over 150m asl, but I would expect a little sleet or possibly very wet snow to lower levels for an hour or so before it turns to rain. What elevation are you at? I'm 71m asl.

Max temp 2.3°C, now dropped to 2.1°C with thick clouds. The frost has melted but the puddles are still thick ice.

I'm 15 in May too! :unsure:

The main thing is that there is some sort of agreement forming between the models about the trough heading into Europe and height rises to the north, whether this takes hold or gets pushed away by the Atlantic is yet to be seen, but the current outlook looks tantalisingly similar to Joe B's winter forecast video a month or so ago The main problem if good synoptics do actually make it into the reliable time frame is the lack of cold pooling across Europe. ECM FI looks very similar to February 2001 and I'm sure many remember how close that was to heaven

2.4°C and some sleety drops of rain are starting to fall again

Sleet and hail showers throughout the day with a little bit of lying hail / slush but there was 10 minutes of heavy snow about half an hour ago. 2.3°C now after a high of 3.5°C. A few degrees colder in the showers of course.

What really annoys me about the term is the fact that whilst it obviously isn't impossible to get a severe winter some who use the term would claim this, but there would be no way of proving that you can't totally rule out a colder winter unless we actually had one. But even then it would be labelled as a fluke, and that the next winter had no chance whatsoever of being cold again. Using the term to refer to the past 20 years is fine, but using it in every post is obsessive to say the least, and to say that you're 100% sure that a cold winter is impossible is ludicrous.

The thing which I find very encouraging is the amount of northern blocking predicted so early in the season! Usually there is much more northern blocking in February than in December, so whilst the upcoming spell may not give snow it could well be a good sign for later on the winter. Of course that may be wrong but it is my take on the situation anyway. Also, my LRF for a mild December is looking more and more busted judging by the models, a good chance of cool, 'slightly below average' weather for another week or so even if it doesn't get cold and snowy. Certainly not the very mild and wet weather which I feared would happen around this time, similar to what we experienced around the 20th November.

OK, but early FI can sometimes be looked at for trends (Up to Friday perhaps?) and I was wondering which one to use but I don't suppose why one would be more reliable. Also, the parallel run looks to be 24 hours behind the normal GFS - the northerly is predicted for Tuesday instead of Monday?

What exactly is the difference between the GFS run and the GFS parallel run over on Meteociel? Is either of these runs more accurate?

Yes that is something I've always wanted from the METO. As not to fill the forecast page with information like that which people just after a quick forecast won't be interested in, they could have a link to a separate page with all the reasoning behind the forecast on it. Perhaps if people knew how to produce a LRF for themselves they would put the METO out of business!

In a way I think that the Met Office forecast isn't too badly set out. They clearly don't know how the winter is going to play out which is why there isn't a proper forecast as such - in some years they've said things like 'a colder December is likely'. I think they said that for December 2007? So rather than say they haven't a clue and leave people completely in the dark, they set out the %chance of mild, average and cold etc. so that people can review it and get an idea for themselves. I'm sure people would be more angry if they said 'signals are too weak to make a forecast', or something along the lines of that

December: Above average, milder spells and rain, cooler later January: High pressure, cool, dry esp. later on February: Northern blocking, cold, snow etc Sorry it is so brief but I'm in a rush!

I reckon 5.7°C. It should turn colder later in the month, but I predict a few weeks of mild weather first.

A very good attempt at a forecast there I would say, you never know but you may just beat the Met Office!

Yes but despite the Jan 2008 easterly delivering 10cm in Newcastle City Centre, and 15cm nearby, I received a measly 2cm as the heaviest band of snow showers had a gap in it, so despite hearing thunder and seeing curtains of snow, I got a dusting. 2006/07 had no significant snow whatsoever in Newcastle so that year was a write off for snow here. I remember that spell, and it wasn't as disappointing here as it was for some as I did measure 15cm on one afternoon, but most other days saw about 10cm in the morning, but by the afternoon it melted quite a bit in between the showers with water dripping off trees etc so what could have been an amazing spell was ruined, and imo it was mostly due to the lack of cold pooling in Europe. If Europe had been colder, the warm soil temperatures would probably have been overcome.

However, even 1997/98 had a couple of significant snowfalls here. 06/07 and 07/08 had none, and you have to go back quite a long time to find a winter as poor a those ones, and a very long time indeed to find 2 consecutive winters that poor. It is worth noting that if January 2008 was 1°C colder than it was, there'd have probably been 3 significant snowfalls that month.

Tbh Joe B's forecast and Ian's forecast might not be as far apart as you may imagine. Joe mentioned 02/03 a few times, which featured a stronger than normal Siberian High I believe with a blocked pattern over Eastern Europe. If El Nino causes a more active Atlantic, the two factors could combine to make us west of the cold boundary in milder air, but Eastern Europe could get a severely cold winter. All I'm trying to say is that Joe's forecast for a cold European winter may well be quite accurate, with the battleground between cold and mild slightly to far East for us to benefit leaving us in a mild southerly air stream fairly frequently. This would also make Ian's forecast plausible, but any westward advection of very cold air could be more likely by February given ENSO conditions etc. so that is the month to watch imo.

I think this year will be very different to last year, but come the second half of the winter things could turn predominantly cold. The difference to last year is that there will be less high pressure close by, but come February low pressure systems could dive into Europe rather than the UK. I don't expect many inversions.

Here there were three mornings with full snow cover - one was a dusting, one was 4cm and another was 6cm. The 6cm fell within 30 minutes between 08:00 and 08:30 one morning, but had melted by 11:00 because the snow turned to rain and it was quite slushy anyway. The other two melted more gradually, taking the length of time you would expect for a dusting and 4cm on a sunny but cold day - 10:00 and 14:00 respectively.

12 Feb 2009, forecast said dry with just a small chance of a snow flurry / light rain shower and 5°C. Instead 9 inches of snow fell in Northumberland, with 3 inches even n Newcastle. Considering blizzard conditions were present an hour after I last saw that forecast it was a bit of a shock! And of course the 2nd, 5 inches of snow was supposed to increase to 12 overnight, instead it simply vanished.

Did you mean first significant snowfall until February 2004?