Alex95

Easterly all too short imo, 2-3 inches max from this run. However, I wouldn't be bothered if it was followed by a northerly before the snow melted, that could top the coving up.

A potent easterly usually delivers for this area, Hexham is obviously further inland than where I am but usually the snow showers reach there. If Newcastle gets 10cm I'd expect Hexham to get 5 or 6cm, its that sort of a ratio. The question is, will there be enough precipitation up here or will it be SE focused? With events like this we may not know until the day before - last February isolated snow showers were forecasted for anywhere away from the NE England and around the Thames, in actual fact whilst these areas saw the most many other areas also got heavy snow showers and a fair covering.

My best memory is 2001, around 8 inches of wet snow I think whilst where I'd been earlier near Durham it hadn't settled at all, and in Newcastle city centre there was just an inch or two! My memory is quite vague as I wasn't very old then, and whilst I think it was at the start it could also have been at the end of the month? February 2004 sticks out as quite snowy, as do February and December 2005. They're the only times I can remember seeing more than 15cm here in my lifetime, though last February there was 13cm. The deepest snow I can recall is definitely 9 inches near Rothbury in Northumberland last February, on the 14th whilst here it had nearly all gone apart from a few patches in the garden.

This is an OTT ramp imo, the possible easterly blast towards the end of the week would dump around 15cm here if it comes off as the ECM / GFS predicts, possibly 20-25cm if we get very lucky with some very intense precipitation, but 50-70cm wouldn't happen within a couple of days. Having said that, 50cm fell in 2/3 days in March 1979 around here but that was exceptional. When you bear in mind 30-40cm fell in Jan 1987, and this time round doen't look as potent (back then it was record breaking for the south in particular) anything more than 20cm looks to be pushing it.

Nope, I was referring to the 12z. Others have now stated that the UK would get snow especially in the West.

ECM +240 shows that large high pressure from the Arctic sitting with it's centre right over the Midlands. I wonder whether it would still be very cold, or whether milder air, warm sectors etc would be mixed in?

Right, out to +144 and a very potent easterly, obviously I'd prefer a NE wind being in Northeast England, but this orientation can still be almost as good snow wise, and possibly herald more severe frosts? A lot of snow from this run I think, still not sure whether it will bring in a potent Greenland high or not. On second thoughts, this may be slightly ENE which is no problem as far as I can see. NE does best on this run again as the snow sets in here first, and lasts. NE Scotland might be slightly too close to the high pressure for very heavy snow. Also, Greenland high finally at +168, similar to the GFS FI with a northerly reload likely from +192 onwards.

ECMWF out to +120 over on Meteociel and it looks like a snowfest to me, low pressure across the Channel / Southeast England sinking south-westwards and bitter easterly winds spreading to northern regions. Could turn out better than the GFS? Not quite as much ridging into Greenland the the GFS though at this stage.

Looking at the models this evening, the 12z runs so far appear to be upgrading the snow potential for the NE quite considerably. I know it's a long way off, and you can't forecast snow accurately that far ahead, but it's hard not to get excited when the biggest snowfalls since 2001 (or even earlier) could be just round the corner.

The 6z and 12z aren't that different at +150, but everything is slightly further north. On the 12z however NE England (I'm using this example as I know the climate) would receive 3-6 inches from heavy snow showers / even blizzards, whilst on the 6z that finger of high pressure which is further south would prevent much snowfall, maybe a dusting on the ground.

Exactly what I was thinking, out to +108 hrs now and the frigid air is on its way, looks like a direct hit on this run The main thing is that the Greenland high will soon be in the 'very reliable' timeframe, and once we get one of those the ingredients for snow can come together more easily. This time tomorrow the time in which the Greenland high supposedly will start to develop will be not much further out than +72 hrs which will provide a much better standing point should it still be modelled. Out to +120 since I wrote this post btw and blizzards knocking on the door of the NE

As others are noticing everything is slightly further west at about +84 on this run, and the short wave is in a significantly better position so far. A decent upgrade on this run is likely IMO.

Not really, all the GFS runs lately have gone for that tomorrow. The high pressure will move through the UK and head northwards, its where it ends up, along with the shortwave(s) after the weekend, that's causing the nail biting.

I don't know when they come out, maybe someone else knows? But I definitely think that people should wait until they come out before even suggesting which run to disregard, the ECM, GFS or UKMO the prime contenders. No run should be disregarded for a couple of days yet, but once the ensembles are out I could forgive anyone for backing one model more strongly than another. Also, does anyone know where you can access the ECM ensembles?

Not as much convection as in the east, a potent easterly / north easterly can deliver up to a few inches from convective snow showers over there I'd believe, and quite a lot more from battleground scenarios! I'm not 100% sure though as I'm not that familiar with the local climate.

I need about 20cm or more so I can say I got the heaviest snow of the decade, beating February 2001, and looking at the charts this is achievable (but obviously I wouldn't want to tempt fate )

ECM turning out fine at +168, things creeping into FI but overall the run may redeem itself. If the run carries on as expected the real cold may reach the UK at a similar time to that on the GFS (I mean the time with heavy snow predicted as opposed to wintry flurries)

If the easterly spell does come off, it is looking more north easterly than south easterly at first especially. Therefore I'd expect North east England, eastern Scotland and northern East Anglia to do best out of this spell. South west England could get fronts later on, so I'd say Northwest England, the west of Northern Ireland and South west Scotland to do the worst.

All the ingredients are there for a very cold and snowy spell, but the trouble is they're slightly misaligned on the 12z operational. You can't ice a cake before baking it, if the weather tries something like this we'll almost see a very wintry spell indeed, but we'll actually be left with drizzle. It is also worth mentioning that at least 80-90% of the ensembles go for 850s below -5°C for the 17th, and the operational is a massive mild outlier for the 17th.

No disasters just yet, sure I would have preferred that this downgrade hadn't happened but if you look at the charts side by side for Tuesday from the 6z and the 12z there aren't that many differences, but the short wave isn't quite in the right place anymore. It goes to show how unpredictable the upcoming spell is going to be. We could still be biting our nails at the weekend.

Not necessarily, convective snow showers will be concentrated in the east, but if any persistent snow comes along it may reach the west. Also as low pressure systems come up against the easterly flow the west would probably face the brunt of the snow. Even if a cold spell gets nailed on by, say, the weekend, it might still be unclear where the most snow is likely to fall until it has already started. Back in February the east was forecast the most snow, but in the end large parts of the South west got deeper snow than large parts of the East (55cm or thereabouts in Okehampton)

Most places would get a good dumping from these charts, I think the North east would do best at first, but later on places such as East Anglia would also get very large falls of snow. Not that I'd place all my hopes on one run, especially GFS FI

GFS FI is surely having a laugh! That is the dream setup as far for the North East, reminds me of the 50-60cm falls that occurred during February 1979 This run has given me further hope, and I'm now confident that a significant cold snap is on the horizon. It will probably be of an easterly type, but whether it is very snowy like the 12z GFS would have us believe, or similar to last New Year a la 6z I don't know. Either way I'm quite happy but I'd prefer the snowy one. I'm not ruling out the high pressure being suppressed giving a mild westerly flow, but I think that this is less likely than a cold snap.

I'm sure this morning you said something along the lines of 'I'm becoming pretty certain of a very cold spell mid month', or 'around Christmas' or something like that? :lol:

Sleet turned back to rain now despite the precipitation getting heavier Temperature now 2.4°C.