pascalsbongo

lol The 8th is the day of the trial. However, if you can find that one flake , then perhaps the judge may be leniant on you, and order you to give a written apology to the atlantic. But should the judge be harsh and the said flake is not forthcoming, then i expect the judge will make you stand on top of your Volvo for 48 hours in the face of the most miserable mild weather imaginable. 48 hours of driving rain , 30-50mph winds , 12 degrees blow torch heat, and the greyest of grey skies. The atlantic system may also want to sue for character assasination etc. The flake will need to be independantly verified. Also a recording of it falling (mobile phone acceptable) is required. And the flake must not start to melt for 10 seconds. Anyway, fingers crossed that the models u turn once more, but the glimmer of hope from yesterday , i think , was just that , a glimmer.

Andy muisc 6 days until february 8th. I would bring a toothbrush to the trial next monday. Perhaps plead insanity ? Either way i think its looking likely, that you shall be convicted of the earlier mentioned weather crimes. There was hope for you yesterday, and its still not over yet but as i said dont forget your toothbrush. I noted for the first time in one of your posts earlier today, that you seemed resigned to milder conditions. You have to keep fighting!! Come on Andy dont give up ! Get down to that mumbles pier , face the atlantic (or point in that direction) and tell it to go away. Dont give up!

Judgement day is nigh. Andy music day. Andy may have to stand trial for severe weather crimes. Such charges include :- 1. Predicting -12 in the face of an incoming south westerly. 2. Predicting snow with temperatures forecast to be 8 plus degrees celsius. 3. Insisting that the beasterly would begin from the 25th january 2010 and once again on the 8th of February. 4. Raising hopes to the ill informed coldies that heavy snow would most definatly be on its way. I hope for Andy sake he does not have to stand trial, as his commitment has been immense. Lets hope Andy is right.

Nothing will grind Ansy music down,you cannot put this man down! I think he is single handedly keeping our winter cold, without him our winter would have slipped into ,mildness a long time ago. If there was a hats off emoticon then it woud have been posted here...( ). Ok the minus 12 was a oversight but hey it could well happen, the forecast of snow at plus 8 could well happen, that plus 8 may well be plus 2 or 3 going on the crazy models at the moment, and bear in mind that is generally a lower land forecast. If there was one person, you would put on the end of mumbles pier to ward off the beast from the west it would be andy music. Ok he would have to turn towards the sw to start with but, can you imagine the atlantic system standing up to this behemoth? The atlantic system will wilt and melt like prok pie jelly when confronted by Andymusic. I hereby give Andy music one inch of fallen snow from my garden in honour of his services to this winter so far.

Has this chart been correlated against the average CET of the same periods? And of what significance does that show? Also i guess you would need another 40 years or so to be able to show any real sign of a link?

Go Andy Go Andy !! I think you have single handedly forced the models to bring that cold back. Maybe you shall be spared that court trial for weather crimes. I shall gladly be on the wrong side of the battleground for one snow event and be drizzled on,just so you can get your -12 degrees. Hows that for you ?

Bit of a mini streamer at the moment, but just a weeeeeeeee bit to far north, think this will miss by a little as 2-3 miles lol!, may catch the edges and get a fleety wispy snippety snip snip of snow.

There may be a chance if it turns more nnw , for later on today, however i have no idea if it will stay the same , turn more westerly , or more northerly. Anyone care to comment on any potential direction change?

Second that, still , its another day to add to the list where snow has fallen.

If this was the start of the winter i would be sooo fustrated , this shower is in Morriston about 2 miles away and is just missing here lol. Had ours on Friday eve / sat morn, over to you guys further east and north, fingers crossed it dont peter out though.

A small batch very close to here now , showing BLUE !! on the radar, this must be on the lowest ground, will confirm shortly. Here comes our snow flake for today.

Its been great this winter, every part of Wales seems to have had the type of system that favours them at one point or another. Here the NNW streamer was good for us on Friday eve / early sat. Today its more a NW which is much better further north from this area. But one way or another the snow has been dished around to all areas in reasonable amounts. Often its just one area that gets a good blast ,with plenty of elation for those within and frustration for people so close. Danglers ,streamers, NNW , NW , the breakdown the other week, the spinning system that blasted south england then came round to smack most of Wales on the noggin, ist all happened. Its like there is someone up there making sure everyone gets their fair share. I think its all to do with Andy musics positivity, a few hob nobs, and a cup of tea.

Cant fault them this winter, started off pretty poorly, but then that tuesday evening a week or so ago they went mental, and i felt very guilty for slagging them off. My eyes are burning into that radar in an attempt to force those showers to turn. Weekly country track forecast shows that atlantic surge really smashing through, unlike what we have seen for a while. Looks set to perhaps smash right through and re introduce de fault position. Very early days, but it could signal the end. Lol doom and gloom Pascal. On a lighter note , i predict a snow fest tuesday through to thursday, just because.

Possible slight change in direction of showers, very minimal change though to more nnw, just a little more turn and it could be back on here and carms area anyway. However i think i am looking so hard that i may be seeing things!!

Just need a turn in shower direction, otherwise its fleeting mini blasts at best perhaps. Am not sure if a turn is in the offing though ?

I definatly second that. The further you go beyond that,the chances lessen at an increasing rate. If i could post a time/forecast accuracy characteristic curve on here, i would put beyond 144 as 20-30% max, sinking by 5 % per 24 hours. However its nice to look at and it keeps us glued to the models. As 10% chance is better than 0%.

Radar showing showers turning from red to green !!!! Nooooooooooo!! However, on Friday evening ,there was a blue patch right over my post code for a good hour or so, during heavy snowfall. Is there any sort of human input into what the radar shows? can anyone explain why the above comment would be so??

Hehehe , go Andy go Andy !! Im going with you now, and i predict a mega snow fest from Tuesday evening right throught to Thursday, which will catch everyone off guard. Andy music is our hero.

Looks like 7, 8 ,9 degrees at that time, must be some real tough snow to withstand that. Warm snow. If only freezing point was ten degrees, what a winter we would have every year. Its looking more like a Mr Cambrian forecast, lol i think we owe him an apology. Andy , you insisted on Feb 8th we would be into the freezer. Fair play to you for making a bold statement and sticking by it. Hope is fading but i hope things turn around and you are right. However should you be wrong then you will be put on trial,and tried for weather crimes. You could however become as famous as Mr Fish ala 87. By the way , i do like to look for you positive thoughts.

A good few hours maybe if the streamer stays on course,hopefully a good inch or two. A nice warm up for the weekend i hope , maybe we are being softened up for the mega freeze, that Andy insists will be here February 8th at 0700hrs just before i pop my daily porridge in the microwave.

Go lampost go lampost go lampost!! Am opening a new pack of hob nobs, and getting the tea on for the lampost. Feed your lampost and it will deliver. I still can not understand how so much snow can exist in one lampost lamp? Perhaps its like a portal to some snow universe? I nominate my lampost for lampost of the year (wales regional finals).

Very pretty indeed ! Something to keep an eye on if nothing else. Would be nice to have some mega cold, max day temps no higher than -5 (this would be mega for here anyway).

Lol i do hope your right Andy i really do. But, that is still 10 days away, and a lot can happen before then. I shall get the supplies in when it comes into a more reliable time frame. If correct then everyone will be stuck at home eating milk and bread. Will the beast from the east give you that elusive minus 12 degrees celsius? Roll a dice 5 times, add up the total,divide by two, then toss a coin (heads = plus , tails = minus). Your daily winter temperature forecast.

I did actually think he was about to say haha after that comment. Good batch here at the moment , hopefully it will be just that 1 or 2 degrees colder than forecast for tomorrow.

Watched Rob McElwee i think it was earlier on , maybe about 3ish , so not sure what time that forecast was compiled ,but he did say the wind would be more westerly later on ,and therefor Ireland blocks Wales. Is this still the case ? , incoming at 11 o clock is supposed to be good for this area, any earlier or later and its more hit and miss??