Blizzard_of_Oz

You may be right I will dig out my photos my memory is not so good these days and I'm a little confused after reading every single post on the Model thread over the last few days time to give it a rest I think until next Thursday or Friday.

The morning of 24th December 1996- snow showers into late Christmas Eve, a white Christmas 4cm.

Tuesday may give us snow and sleet for a little while on the front edge as the Artic air extends its welcome according to the model runs. I dare say this will surprise a few people the BBC need to update the forecast soon i.m.o. Isn't it odd I think people who love the Snow should all move to more suitable climates where there is lots of snow.

Milder next Tuesday onwards into the weekend beyond that is still uncertain as snowman has already posted, the models seem to suggest a possible blockin. My feeling is that the Atlantic will loose out and by the middle of February the Easterly will take control and give us a last blast of the Winter, how severe we will see. Wiser forecasters know that this winter is not over yet and the battle for control begins next weekend again.

Thankyou Ian for giving us a bit of relief, it was me who posted your blog on the forum. In my first post with your blog I said 'belief' and some member commented about me believeing in God etc. and to be more realistic. This was a typo error it was supposed to read 'relief', you have now explained yourself and gave me a lot more belief now.

Sorry that was a spelling mistake it meant to be RELIEF not belief sorry about that. Totoro Stratus Group: Members Posts: 169 Joined: 28-December 07 Location:Carmarthenshire - 100M ASL Posted Today, 09:04 Blizzard_of_Oz, on 30 January 2010 - 08:39 , said: This may not be the right thread but look at this from Ian Fergusson's Blog. Remember February 2009? The deep snow that brought London and much of the southeast to a spectacular standstill? It's by no means impossible that we'll see similar weather establishing across the same parts of the UK in a week or so.... and possibly more widely, too. Usually, I restrict my blog to matters of forecast interest within a few days of the here-and-now, but the growing signs - and growing forecast model consensus - signalling a return to much colder conditions by the end of next week deserves an early mention. More on all this in a moment... So onto next weeks developments.. The week actually starts with a temporary return to something a tad milder. B y Tuesday, we expect a spell of fairly widespread rain - with hill snow on it's leading edge, tracking eastwards - behind which, temperatures will peak somewhere around the seasonal average. But thereafter, the trend is one for cold anticylonic weather to steadily exert itself across the country and into the second part of the week, a return to something a good deal colder will become apparent pretty much everywhere, with the exception of the far West and NW. Between Friday and Sunday, developments are expected to yield a bitterly cold easterly flow off the continent, bringing the risk of snowfall - some potentially heavy - into parts of the SE initially, with a chance of this spreading further westwards to affect other areas. And beyond that, the anticyclonic south-easterly flow could well be replaced by a cyclonic east-to-northeasterly version, thereby continuing to offer a growing risk of further snow. Hes not the only 1 either thats saying the same thing, Im sorry admin if this is the wrong thread but we need that sort of belief in this thread now. Belief? What does that have to do with it? This isn't a religion you know, we can't influence the weather any more than we can influence those imaginary gods that some people think exist. I'm thinking that Ian Fergusson is wrong, also that many people are clutching at too few straws, the real cold weather is always a week away (ie in FI) on the model output, etc. Sorry, but I don't think it's going to happen. I'd LIKE it to happen, but I think it's more likely that I'll suddenly develop the brainpower of Einstein overnight. I'm a realist, I don't operate on flights of fancy and what 'should' happen or what I (or others) want to happen. With the weather, what will be will be. Enough said.

This may not be the right thread but look at this from Ian Fergusson's Blog. Remember February 2009? The deep snow that brought London and much of the southeast to a spectacular standstill? It's by no means impossible that we'll see similar weather establishing across the same parts of the UK in a week or so.... and possibly more widely, too. Usually, I restrict my blog to matters of forecast interest within a few days of the here-and-now, but the growing signs - and growing forecast model consensus - signalling a return to much colder conditions by the end of next week deserves an early mention. More on all this in a moment... So onto next weeks developments.. The week actually starts with a temporary return to something a tad milder. B y Tuesday, we expect a spell of fairly widespread rain - with hill snow on it's leading edge, tracking eastwards - behind which, temperatures will peak somewhere around the seasonal average. But thereafter, the trend is one for cold anticylonic weather to steadily exert itself across the country and into the second part of the week, a return to something a good deal colder will become apparent pretty much everywhere, with the exception of the far West and NW. Between Friday and Sunday, developments are expected to yield a bitterly cold easterly flow off the continent, bringing the risk of snowfall - some potentially heavy - into parts of the SE initially, with a chance of this spreading further westwards to affect other areas. And beyond that, the anticyclonic south-easterly flow could well be replaced by a cyclonic east-to-northeasterly version, thereby continuing to offer a growing risk of further snow. Hes not the only 1 either thats saying the same thing, Im sorry admin if this is the wrong thread but we need that sort of belief in this thread now.

Hmm Im not sure, I wouldnt be too hasty in defeat until Monday, I forgot who said it but some 1 did say the runs may a bit eratic this weekend and Paul I hope you are wrong just this time please.

Its still showing, as long as the trend continues on Sunday and Monday we live in hope. Lets see what T.E.I.T.S. and Steve make of this I'm sure they will be able to explain although I think they were hoping for the UKMO to come into line with the other runs, very dissapointing because we expected better still not over yet.

Yes doing very well for snow up there, its started to snow here but wont last that long, I tell you if you want a good laugh of drunken people falling down in the snow try this its quality and live. http://www.terena.org/webcam/

Rain today is off try this 1. http://www.meteox.co.uk/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Ha ha I went to Brinky School, yes it looks like heavy showers for the rest of the moring for you now and it looks like its heading more inland down here off the Norfolk Coast not expecting nowt mind just a dusting maybe if they make headway here.

Yes the 00z will be out soon lets hope that it starts to agree with the other models and the ensembles, hopeful that things will be a lot more clearer on Mondays runs then its game on if that pressure builds over Scandi. but a long way to go yet. Sunny Shields now becomes snowy Shields and instead of Sandancers we are now known as Snow dancers.

Oh yes it sounds amazing I have just been chatting to my Son in Shields and I was telling him about the winter of 1978-1979 when I was a lad of 14 great times no school for weeks and the first and only time in England that we could not even open our door because of the snow drifts. Do you have any record of the snow depth of that Winter it must have been around 16 inches at least. Can't recall anything near that down here apart from last February about 10 inches but very short event considering 1978-9 up in Shields. Quite good falls here in December and January also, just hope that the Easterly comes off could be 1 hell of a cold spell and quite possibly a very snowy 1 here, whats your thoughts on it T.W.S I have only read about 3 posts from you in the last couple of days?

I bet you wish you were in Cleadon now T.W.S. I wish I was but will be soon. Edit: and a lot more to fall in the next hours judging by the radar.

Could you elaborate a bit more on the 00z run, I'm not that experienced enough with models, so is it a good run for the Easterly to make headway or not?

What a brilliant, true and reflective piece of writing.

Very surprised how quiet it is on this regional thread considering there is so much cold and snow potential over the next few days. Although the forecasts seem to vairy it looks as if we could be in for something much more wintery from as early as tomorrow with Friday night/ Saturday am and Sunday all looking possible for snow Ok I see now so it's witery from Thursday and possible Snow for the rest of the weekend I see that now sorry. So we may get some Snow now then is that what you are now saying now I'm pretty confused it's a bit different from your earlier post, like I said Snow on Sunday 80% chance for East Herfordshire anyway.

The Northerly could bring troughs into our Region but we wont know until probably 24 hours before, it's more a case of nowcasting. If the PPN develops then we could get Snow showers and a more prolonged spell of Snow further inland over the Weekend it's all marginal at the moment. As for the long cold spell are you refering to the Easterly when you say you will update on Sunday/Monday? The Easterly looks like it wont move over to us unless we get a low developing here, it could just pass us and slip further South however things look good atm but that could all change so yes it's too early to say.

Where are you getting your information from are you saying Snow for our region from tomorrow or across Britain? I think Snow is more likely in our Region from the early hours of Sunday morning into Monday morning Dew points are looking good for that. The Easterly is still sitting near us but it needs a number of factors to make it shift over us however as I post this things now look more favourable for next week let's see if we get anything from the Northerly first. Welcome to all the newcomers

Not to worry this forum is gearing up for a very very busy period if not over the weekend then perhaps next week because something might be happening to our weather in the next 7 days that may have to make the history books to be re written. :crazy:

Amazing day been logged in all day, I can't believe those charts and if they all have the same trend or even downgraded slightly we are in for something truly unbelievable, I can't sleep tonight and keep pinching myself can this be real ? I also keep saying to myself the charts just have to be wrong in some way, but we must all be cautious and not get carried away as has been mentioned tonight but for now I'm just going to enjoy it because I don't think I will ever witness charts like that again in my lifetime. :crazy:

I'm absolutely stunned and pretty scared with those charts if this comes off I dread to think how we would cope, lessons learnt from the earlier Deep Freeze I hope. OMG

Ha the local BBC forecast are still going with a mild week up to Thursday, no mention of turning cold on Friday they still probably have not been updated or waiting for the next run ?

Just watched Rob on the BBC weather and he is up to his little sayings again he said 'It doesnt look much like winter on Friday with these temperatures however that's Friday'. Just a few weeks ago he said on a forecast 'and then there is Monday ha ha ha'. Seems to me that he is sure of the very cold returning but what do they know at the BBC after the forecasting of late, but it's a very interesting situation when Rob says things like that he is the only forecaster I take notice of.