Penrith Snow

A bit iffy mate, snow mentioned but graphics indicate south Cumbria to get the most, No change there then!! Andy

I know its off topic but we need cheering up! I remember early January 1985 and under a very cold easterly a low pressure dropped down from the north with a weak frontal system, Ian said "Don't be fooled by that approaching warm front, the air behind that front is about as warm as a Polar Bears packed lunch"! London got 10cms from that front. Classic Macaskill. Andy I feel a deleted post coming up

Its noticeable on the Beeb forecasts how the MetO have upgraded the snow amounts for tomorrow and Wednesday. We have gone from very little and insignificant to heavy snow over higher ground in Scotland and meaningful snow further south. At 6.30pm likely poor conditions due to snow on the A9 in Grampian was mentioned and what mug has to go to Inverness tomorrow Andy

Thanks guys that's good to know. Its often said when setting up a weather station that the station should be twice as far from a building as the building is high. This is probably to prevent heating of the instruments during hot whether in summer. Pre Stevenson screen days it was standard practice to place the thermometer on a north facing wall! Andy

I have my Nexus Temperature Sensor shielded in a home made screen which works very well even on a sunny summers today, however, this time of year the screen is only in the sun until midday when it goes into shade created by my house situated 15 meters away. Does this 'unnatural' shade affect the screen temperature? The screen creates it's own shade of course but does having the screen itself in the shade lower temperatures further? My readings are close to a nearby MetO station on most days but I do worry about this shaded effect. Andy

Yet the MetO still don't expect anything significant on all their latest broadcast, however, when I saw the fax I thought that triple point must surely bring snow. Good luck if you are in the zone that could benefit. Andy

High humidity and dew point is rapidly melting the snow despite temperature close to freezing. How annoying, I thought this would stick around at least a few days. Back to square 1 and I have no chance of snow showers tonight. Drat, drat and double drat. Andy

That's because they expect any snow to be insignificant, the Synoptics look great but the MetO only expect a weakening band of precipitation. Andy

Snow falling here this morning from the band moving down from Scotland and with a temperature of -2c you don't have to worry about it being marginal! Everywhere us proper white for this first time this year, had 2 days with snow lying so far but amounts were small and barely reached the 'covering 50% of ground' threshold. Will see how much we get but at least it's proper snow. Andy

I love the clear patch over my house! Snowing here this morning as a band of snow moves south from Scotland and at -2c it ain't marginal! Seems to die out somewhat as it moves across the border but the view out of my bedroom window is better than the radar. Andy

Not according to the MetO the front still goes from east to west, whether we get any snow on it is another matter and so far the MetO seem to think it will not amount to much. Andy Meant to say west to east !

Nice to know I am not the only one not to have seen a decent snowy spell since December 2010, we mostly missed the snowfalls of 2013 especially in March when most places were buried in snow Penrith remained dry, thank God I was in Lanzarote! Andy

Had a lot of sleet/snow showers in last 12 hours but temperature refuses to drop below 1.5c so it will not settle, hills around me at just 200meters altitude are white so the snow line is only 70meters above my house. How frustrating!!! By the time it gets cold enough for the snow to settle the precipitation will have gone. Andy

You must have some altitude, temperature up to 2.8c here with sleet. Andy

I don't think the charts are a downgrade at all more a moving around of weather systems that alter conditions at the surface. Essentially a cold spell is coming but a severe cold spell wasn't really on the cards yesterday and still isn't, how long it lasts is still up for grabs. My approach is to divide the spell into 3 and concentrate on each at a time. 1. The weekend north westerly and where snow falls as features move south, west looks best here and Wales best of all. 2. The sliders early next week, far to early to predict any snow locations so don't even bother but will make for tense model watching and plenty of IMBY posts as some get rain, some get snow and some (probably me) stays dry. 3. Later next week on beyond, what happens after the sliders? Easterly or back to zonality? Again far to early to tell but I reckon the MetO favour a return to zonality but only by a short margin. Whichever way you look at it it's better than a 10 day Bartlett!!! Andy

Reports of heavy snow in the Carlisle area settling right down to sea level, just light snow here but it is settling. Could be an interesting night. Andy

Dear me, this will be a cold spell built on sand as it's all down to the movement and alignment of low pressure systems rather than a controlling block. Precarious is putting it mildly but opportunities for snow will be plenty and if I was a BBC weather forecaster I would order a large batch of Paracetomol! They are going to need it. Andy For the CET for January to end up a tad below average the next two weeks will have to be very cold! Andy

I presume that is a joke? I would not be taken in my one good GFS run and I think there will be lots of disappointed folk on here either tomorrow or Wednesday as the GFS cold spell vanishes quicker than a cold zonality snow cover! If the MetO says no I doubt it will happen. Andy

Interesting that you post that example as I remember it clearly, however, I also remember that in his 1985/86 winter review Philip Eden remarked on how unusual the switch from strong zonal to stable easterly was at the end of January. Also the zonal flow of January 1986 was colder than is the case now with a much less prominent Azores High. Andy

Some of the charts this morning have a January 1984 look about them but tend to get downgraded as the time approaches which is a shame, we need to look NW for any cold as you can forget Scandy and Greenland Highs for a while yet. Can I ask anyone what the Shannon Entropy is? Andy

No angry response from me because your post is 100% accurate! the projected charts for the first week in January are a mirror image of last year and no waffle about SSW's and background signals will change that. Andy

More high pressure to the south is bad news as it prevents any PM shots!! One if the most stable synoptic types is what Brian Gaze on TWO christened the Zonal Bartlett with high pressure over Iberia, low pressure over Iceland and a strong zonal flow. This is modelled across the piste today and is very bad news IMO. The only way out of this is for high pressure to the south to decline and the persistent low pressure to transfer towards Scandinavia, the movement northwards of the AH will not save us this time, in fact if is our nemesis. Model watching does not get any worse than this that's for sure. Andy

Bloody hell reading this thread hurts my brain, although it us compulsive reading and thanks for all the posts guys. It doesn't seem long ago when all this stuff wasn't talked about in weather forecasting, I don't remember anyone mentioning MJO,s SSW or Pacific ridges in 1979, we just had some very cold easterlies and it snowed! Life is so complicated these days. Andy

Great consistency across all the models today, shame they are not this consistent when predicting cold! The pattern isn't as wet and stormy as last year but snow chances are just as poor so to be honest their isn't much difference. Wet and 7c is no snowier than wet and 11c! Andy

Not too young I am 53 and remember the 1989 horror, however, I also remember the lovely widespread snowfall in late November 1988 that was followed by a week of frost. So to me so far winter 2014/15 has been worse! Plenty of time for change but at the moment despite all the techno chat nothing is on the horizon. Andy