Penrith Snow

I have just read Ricardo's NH Winter prediction from 07.11.13 and I have to say it was 95% accurate, even pinpointing the North East US cold wave and very strong polar vortex, At the time the MetO and others were pointing to mid-latitude blocking which never materialised so if I had to put money on it I would go with the OPI for a winter prediction 2014/15. It might not be perfect but its better than the crap CFS pumps out every day! Winter 2014/15 could be a cracker but lets wait untill the 31st October. Andy

You are much better using wood as it's thermal qualities are better and you can paint it a brilliant gloss white which is best. I have created a double skinned wooden box with holes drilled at 45 degree angles every 2 cms so air can flow freely but no sun, indeed very little light enters the box. This works really well and my readings correlate well with those from the nearby MetO station. My main problem is my medium sized garden so things like fences and patios heat up in summer on hot days which isn't ideal but the box itself works just fine. Andy

Yes, why the secrecy and if no one knows how the index for any given day is compiled we have no way of double checking the data and indeed that very impressive 0.9 correlation graph. We have no way of checking indeed whether the graph is correct! I hope my sceptism is unfounded I really do, because this could be an excellent piece of work and I have always suspected that the October circulation pattern influences the following winter but come in Ricardo open up! As I said a link between October circulation patterns and winter weather does probably exist and that's why we often see a warm, dry October prior to a cold winter but a claimed correlation of 90% in any long range weather forecast really would be remarkable. I look forward to reading the peer reviewed paper in Weather Magazine. Andy

It's going to be a scorching Friday according to this mornings MetO run and I can easily see 30c being reached in the SE. GFS is a little more complex and it's all over by Saturday but so far this summer such changes to unsettled conditions have failed to materialise. Even in Cumbria it's been a cracking summer so far, much better than last year, my lawn is looking dry for the first time in many years. Andy

Seems strange that the MetO MRF isn't supporting it's own model. Hopefully ECM will fall in line with GFS tomorrow but to be honest no model output is that bad this evening, we are used to worse! Andy

Post of the day. Over reliance on computers is a problem in modern live and no less so in weather forecasting. I read about the Air France air crash recently and it was the over reliance on the computers that led to the crash, the computers told the pilots they were going to fast yet in reality they were about to stall, old experienced pilots would have 'felt' the planes speed but the young pilots in control thought the computer must be right. Srrty off topic but we ignore human experience at our peril. With regards to the easterly the models always predict Cumbria will stay dry being west of the Pennines but in reality we have some of our best snowfalls from these situations ie Feb 2009. Andy

This coming spell looks very much like February 2005 almost down to the day, that did give widespread snow showers before the easterly feed got cut off, are we looking at something the same or better than Feb 2005? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2005/brack/bracka20050224.gif Andy

I have lived in penrith 25 years an have never known cumbria do so poor for snow compared to the rest of the country. It comes to something when central London has more snow than penrith and the chilterns more snow than Alston! I guess it's just one of those weather anomalies that pop up from time to time but its annoying, my relatives live near birmingham and they have had 5 snowfall in the last four weeks of over 5 cms, not bad I say. The main reason for this poor snow here is that winds have been a slack easterly which has no deep cold, this has enhanced th Pennines snow shield leaving much of cumbria dry, we do get snow on easterly winds as we did in 2010 but they need to be proper cold winds not the wet farts coming off the continent like this year. Glad winter is almost over now and I can concentrate on something else and not have to look at snowy photos from Londoners! Andy

Hmmm, I don't think it was very potent, nothing like the north westerlies we had in February 2003, February 2002, February 1999, march 1998, march 1995.....need I go on. Living in cumbria I take a keen interest in north westerlies and the recent one was very short lived and mediocre. Andy

Absolutely correct, It drives me mad the 'it was the shortwave' that did it nonsense. If a shortwave develops over Norway and blocks the surface movement of cold air west it's because the easterly wasn't properly set up in the upper atmosphere and the shortwave is formed as a result. It's a bit like say England hasn't won the World Cup because they are no good at penalties, no it's because there whole game isn't good enough, you never hear brazil blaming 'shortwaves' ..............if you get my drift. Andy

Don't worry guys that precipitation band is all snow and above 150metres it's settling. Just had 90 minutes of moderate to heavy snow here with some huge flakes, didn't really settle on bare patches from last nights snow but added to existing cover on grass. It will be with you soon. Enjoy!! Andy

Some big snow showers have been rattling in to cumbria overnight....at last! And I have 4cms covering all surfaces. More showers up wind so prospects are good. Andy

Agreed Steve, We have to be very careful looking at ENS Means, I always prefer to concentrate on the Op which afterall is the 'real' run. IMO the ECM shows loads of potential and I think the MetO are undercooking the next 5-10days particularly in the North West. I remember 3rd February 2003 which is a carbon copy of the +96 and the MetO were forecasting snow on hills yet in the NW snow was falling down to sea level accumulating to depth of 10cms just a few miles inland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2003/brack/bracka20030203.gif It might not happen but you can not deny the potential in tonights ECM run. Andy

I dont think Steve has ever got over the Great December let down and I dont blame him really it was a disaster, Despite the snow of the past two weeks the cold spell in terms of synoptics and coldness were very modest and the UK was lucky in having short waves move across at exactly the right latitude, things could easily have turned out far less interesting. This Winter feels like one of wasted opportunity with the big SSW that had only modest effects (if any) in Western Europe and the very annoying habbit of the Greenland High bugging us all summer then going walkabout in Winter, while the Azores High does the reverse As for the trend over the next 10 days yes its colder but nothing really exciting and that ticking sound is getting louder,,,,tick,tock..... Andy

Just measured 9cms, 3 of which fell in last half hour, the snow is the heaviest I have known it in years, remarkable. Andy

Tell me about it nick, last week I was in the snow shadow on the other side of cross fell for 12 hours! Andy

A good 2cms of snow here this morning from the advanced band. Should be interesting when the main one hits. Andy

The northwest seems to have as much snow as the northeast without the thawing problems, many members east of Pennines reporting sleet and rain some of them are gutted. Poor Meto forecast all round. 3cms of dry snow her but some parts of cumbria reporting 10cms again a crap forecast by the Meto. I always thought a total Pennines block was unlikely, they rely on computers to much which tend to oversimplify things. Still moderate snow temp 0.5c Andy

The north west seems to have as much as the northeast without the thawing problems, loads of snow on Lancashire coast poor forecasting by Meto that. Only 3cms here due to Pennines snow shadow but at least it's dry snow high ground in cumbria reporting depths over 10cms. Andy

I only recorded 0.9c but I am a few miles north of Penrith and usually a bit colder. Snow now very light but its stuck on cars and pavements making the view white from my bedroom window. Fingers crossed the MetO has this wrong and we will get snow, God we deserve it after 2 years of foul weather! Andy

Snowing in Penrith and settling, the radar shows random precipitation growth across the County ahead of the main band even in Coastal West Cumbria! Andy

Snowing in Penrith and settling, the radar shows random precipitation growth across the County ahead of the main band even in Coastal West Cumbria. Andy

Bloody hell I hope the GFS is right, it brings the snow right across Cumbria to the west Coast! Clearly at odds with the MetO forecast. Andy

I hope you have bread, milk and a tourch! Consett will be ground zero for this event and you are looking at 30cms as a minimum. Situation is similar although of course not as severe as the 'Great North East Blizzard' of February 1941 when 4 feet was recorded at Consett. Extract below taken from: http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html Third week Jan., 18-20th Feb., blizzard north east England and south east Scotland, worst since Mar. 1888? West Midlands, Wirrall, north west England 12-15in. Consett 4ft. 6-16ft drifts, County Down. 26-27th Mar., northern Scotland. worst since 1879? Tain 3ft., Oban 9in. This was the synoptic situation at the height if the storm http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1941/Rrea00119410219.gif Andy

The MetO dont mention rain or sleet at all in their forecast so really it might be snowing over the sea never mind in land. In reality snow within 5 miles of the coast is likely to be wet but get 5 miles inland and 50metres up then I would expect rapid accummulations. Good luck with it! Andy