Penrith Snow

The models are even worse this morning as we lose the colder PM shots on the ECM with pressure higher over Iberia linked to a huge high pressure covering most of the Med and North Africa from +120. It's not quite a Bartlett but getting close to a zonal Bartlett so no snow even in the North apart from Scottish mountains and even here you will need 2000feet. For the start of the New Year it's difficult to see how it could be worse. Andy

Plenty of charts showing high pressure cells over Iberia! Models are desperate tonight for the start of January and the tick, tock you can here in the background is winter slipping away. Andy

I considered the vantage Vue but I didn't like the all in one housing, no good in my fairly enclosed garden. The anemometer on the Nexus isn't the best piece of equipment but I find the thermometer and rain gauge extremely reliable and compare extremely well with the nearby MetO station, indeed, I gave acquired a MetO grade mercury thermometer and the Nexus was only 0.1c out! Remember when recording wind the vane should be 30 feet above the ground so you can't compare readings taken at 6 feet. Andy

I agree with the pessimist on here and I live at a modest altitude up north! Cool zonality rarely delivers even up here as snow tends to be restricted to areas from the Southern Uplands northwards, cold zonality like January 1984 is as rare as rocking horse droppings. I think this pattern of cool wind and rain will be with us a long while as indicated on the GEFS, the pattern could become more amplified later in January but at the moment that is just hope casting. The only positive I can find is that a Bartlett pattern is unlikely so we should get some nice sunny spells between depressions and of course it's great for the Scottish ski industry who,s demise was clearly overdone several years ago. Andy

We can not give up on the OPI just yet as the index covers the whole 3 month period. Winters 1985/86 1986/87 1990/91 1955/56 to name but a few were all back end loaded and confirmed the OPI signal. However, time is running out and we will need a massive change in January similar to 1986 for the OPI to be a true winter indicator. Andy

The updated MetO +120 fax chart is interesting as the 528 dam line is as far south as Rome and Sardinia in Europe but well north of the Arctic Circle in Greenland, Indeed it's off the map! Does that count as WAA in the Greenland area? Crazy charts again and FI begins at +96 max. Andy

In the mid-long term the models are awful and the new year starts as bad as it could, ECM spells out the likely scenario as the UK High becomes a Euro entrenched Bartlett. Not looking good at all IMO. Andy

If the models and MetO are correct for January then the OPI is dead in the water! Back to the drawing board lads. Andy

I wouldn't worry about that, it was only 3 days ago that the ENS predicted a good northerly between Christmas and New Year. In these uncertain times go with the Operationals run at higher resolutions and even they suffer! Funny how yesterday's JMA led the pack for much better charts this morning. Andy

I really do not think the new year period is set in stone as zonal, models are still all over the place and who can blame them with this monster UK low likely to shack the troposphere up in a weeks time. I say let's get to the storm and see what the models produce after that, it could look very different by then. What I am not looking forward to are those severe gales which believe me will be wet not white across the bulk of the UK, the Synoptics are very similar to the Great Highland Blizzard of 28th January 1978 when most lowland places had rain or at best sleet. By the time low uppers sweep south it will be too dry. Another above average CET month is pretty certain now leading to record warmth in 2014, combine that with an end of year storm and we will hear lots about global warming, severe weather etc, that will drive me nuts so I am not looking forward to that either! I wonder if it's too late to get a flight to Lanzarote next week Andy

Miserable charts this morning after the snow fest ones a few days ago. When will we ever learn, the good charts were always in FI and really we should ignore anything beyond 168 hrs. Sometimes I wish the models never went beyond that time it would certainly help my nerves! I am hoping that this winter will follow the path of 1977/78 which was mild and benign until the 10th January when all he'll broke lose and snowfalls came thick and fast after that. Andy

Tonight's ECM demonstrates why I don't share the excitement on here today. GFS has been all over the place recently while ECM has been a little more consistent, yes the MetO is on board to a limited extent but this route to cold is extremely unusual and extremely risky with forecasted uppers ranging from -9c to +9c at day 9! It's all FI and I suspect we will get a less severe but still cold outcome in the end . Andy

I didn't know Paul had died, very sad. The term Bartlett High first appeared in the very mild winter of 1998 when Paul described a series of high pressure cells moving across the Atlantic and settling over Southern Europe creating very mild conditions in the UK and the exceptionally mild weather of mid February 1998. A true Bartlett has been a rare thing since 2005 but was a source of great pain for many NW and TWO model watchers between 1998 and 2005. Andy

I can't believe it, the last time I looked at the models was Monday morning and they were grim. After being at a conference I come home and log on expecting to find a Christmas Bartlett! I must give myself a break from model watching more often! When did the models suddenly flip? On Monday morning they were trending towards very mild? GFS tonight is remarkable. Andy

ECM a lot better this morning, we still get the pre Christmas mild spell but the displaced AH is a lot further south by Christmas Day but cold north westerlies across the UK. The high being over the Med rather than France allows the PM shots to continue so no real change from the current set up but at least the Christmas Bartlett has gone. Andy

Most of my optimism is due to the MetO hinting that the potential is there for a prolonged cold spell. Those boys don't do that in their MRF unless their is reason to do so. With that in the background I then take more notice of changes in FI charts particularly if they back up this underlining MetO outlook. No guarantees but there never is and I would imagine that the MetO MRF in early November 2010 used similar language. Andy

Not sure I agree Knocker, those charts you posted seem to indicate a noticeable Scandy through with high pressure over Canada edging into Greenland. Or am I reading them totally wrong? Confused mate....... Andy

ECM not too bad either despite several days of very mild weather pre Christmas, however, Christmas Eve brings a potent north westerlies with -5c uppers reaching the west coast of the UK. Plenty of snow north of Manchester on that +240 Christmas Eve chart! I wonder what odds the bookies are putting on snow in Glasgow Christmas Day, might be worth a shot. Andy

Trends trends trends and this morning GFS has sent Uncle Barty packing for Christmas with a pattern switch to mid or high level blocking. No cold for the UK yet although by Boxing Day Scotland could be under much colder air with snow. It's all FI yes but it's a big switch by GFS and following the MetO MRF yesterday which made subtle but better changes to the wording of the potential cold spell I can't help thinking something is up. In 2017 NW posters could be saying 'remember 2014 and the sudden switch in the output mid month that led to that white Christmas and the big freeze that followed'............... I still belief in the OPI. Andy

Without copying snow kings excellent post I have to agree. Despite some very dodgy output recently for the UK sector mostly due to the AH the wider NH view is one that pushes the PV into Russia, as per Steve Murrs avatar. In the long term a displaced PV can only be good news. Andy

So we go from ultra mild models this morning to colder ones thus evening but all really with the same theme of west/ northwesterly flow bringing alternating spells of colder/ milder weather. In other words exactly what the MetO outlook has been saying for weeks! Sometimes I wonder why I spend hours and hours in winter watching the various model runs when the MetO summaries it without the hype in a few sentences each day! We really do have the best weather forecasting organisation in the world. Andy

That's a good pub run, much more amplified in FI with cold weather sweeping south into the eastern US and Western Europe and not a Bartlett in sight. Too much chopping and changing with the models and it's interesting that the MetO ignore all these swings in their MRF and I think from now on I will do the same. So if is cold north westerlies over Christmas as indicated by the guys at Exeter I will not be complaining. Andy

Some dreadful charts on GFS and ECM leading up to Christmas which if verified would be very mild indeed, who invited Uncle Barty to the Christmas party! I think also that the AH ridging into Europe route to cold is extremely dangerous and we are more likely to be left with a New Year long fetch south westerly than easterly. Much safer would be next weekends northwesterly to become a northerly followed by a mid Atlantic ridge, not likely I admit but the AH ringing strongly east will be a disaster IMO. Still all FI so time for it to change but the signs are not good as we approach the festive season. Andy

No let up in the cold zonality for the next 10 days and GFS has dropped the Christmas Bartlett in FI at least for the moment. All in all some very interesting weather for northerners, it's just a shame it's not mid January as the colder Atlantic sea temps then would have led to much more low level snow. The Synoptics are similar to January 1984 which was very snowy from the Midlands northwards on an unusually cold zonal flow. However sea temperatures are currently about 3c higher so this is reflected in the air temperature. I would forget northern blocking for a while and just be glad we are not stuck with a Euro slug but plenty of interesting and at times wintry and sometimes sunny weather instead. Northern blocking may come in January, remember all the cold winters of the mid 1980's had mild zonal Decembers, the cold winters of recent years were unusual in having the cold 'front loaded' , a mild December followed by a cold January/February is much more typical of the UK climate if you look back over the decades. Already I have seen more snow and frosts than during the whole of last winter. Andy

Great words of advice from Fergie. I have learnt over the years to take the models at +144 and beyond with a pinch of salt as they swing widely and in my experience if the MetO haven't picked up on a cold spell in their MRF one isn't coming despite a few Stella ECM runs. At the moment all the signals are wrong for sustained cold and this cool zonality will be with us for sometime, ignore the big swings in the models from one run to the next like the 12z and 00z and concentrate on trends then the fax charts. Oh and I expect the 12z not to be as bad as the 00z as the pendulum continues to swings back and forth. The situation could still be worse and the long fetch northerly on the charts last night might happen eventually not just yet. Andy