Penrith Snow

Winter 2012/13 was dismal here, in fact I reckon north Cumbria that winter was one of the least snowiest part of the UK. We largely missed the snowstorms in January and February and don't even mention March and all the time my friends in the north east were buried. Contrast that with this winter and while it's not been fantastic I have had lying snow on 12 mornings and the 9cms that fell last Thursday is still on the ground although it's down to 3cms now. Had the temperature during the last 3 weeks been just 1c lower it would have been a great period of accumulating snow, soooo close. Andy

If you love anti cyclonic gloom then this is your morning, with the high situated over Ireland it will not be clean that is obvious with increasing amounts of cloud and as moist milder air crosses very cold ground low level mist will form as well. It's a classic anti cyclonic gloom set up and one that could last a fortnight. Shame because if nothing else the weather this winter has been interesting with lots going on but February could go down as a borefest. Andy

Don't dismiss the 06 GFS, I have known many Easterlies appear out of nowhere, particularly when high pressure is dominant and this is picked up by a sudden flip in the models. It also makes the chance of a clean cold high more likely if we don't get the easterly, what I really don't want is two weeks anti cyclonic gloom which some if the models are promising this morning. The 06 wouldn't bring snow here but it would bring some great frosts and winter sun and with Cumbria covered in snow would make a lovely winter spell while I watched Londoners digging themselves out the snow. Andy

Woke last night at 1am to heavy snow and thought great this is the Arctic air to preserve my lovely 9cm covering that suffered little in the sunshine yesterday, but no milder temperatures followed the snow and now a thaw is underway. The higher uppers were only meant to last one day Friday but now the cold air doesn't arrive till tonight. All so frustrating, what does it take to get a good clean snowy 1960's type northerly these days. Andy

Woke up and yes SNOW on SNOW!, it's pouring down with the stuff and another 1cm is lying in areas where the snow had thawed. I noticed this area of precipitation before going to bed over SE Scotland and it has grown as it's moved south, I suspect it started as rain/ sleet but it's proper snow now and heading your way. Last time I had snow on snow was December 2010. Andy

More snow showers this morning brought total to 9cms which is unexpectedly good considering the last spell only brought 2cms. Showers dying out now but temperature close to freezing despite sunshine. Andy

How much snow do you have? More showers lining up on radar so could be a good day. Are you out of Appleby near the Fells? Andy

Being further north must have made all the difference with some amazing scenes here last night. 9cms lying now but temperature is just above freezing so it is wet, DP still below freezing so hopefully little thaw. For once North Cumbria was in the sweet spot, how often does that happen! Andy

2 inches here but well happy, gale force winds and snow is a rare beast indeed, my wife might get her snow day tomorrow lol Andy

Turning into a great night here with another heavy blustery snow shower rattling through on a gale force wind, it's so rare to get high winds and snow haven't seen anything like it for years. 4cms lying now blowing about in the wind, OK not a great amount but I am not complaining. Andy

After struggling to settle this afternoon this evenings heavy snow showers have left a 3cms covering. The blowing snow under the lamppost was a really nice sight. Lovely. Andy

Great charts, the UKMO is peach, note the mid Atlantic Ridge joining with a pronounced Arctic High +144, potential is an understatement. Ramping not required, the computers have done that for us. Up early to drive to Glasgow on M74 which rises to 850 feet at Beattock Summit, the drive home will be interesting! Andy

I have acquired a MetO grade mercury minimum thermometer and want to start recording Grass Minimum, however, I am a bit concerned about its exposure in my rural but medium sized garden. In the centre of the lawn the horizontally placed thermometer will be 5 meters from the house, 5 meters from a line of trees ( not overhanging) and 6 meters from a wooden fence, is that exposed enough to get a true Grass Minimum reading? Secondly if we do get snow this week I presume I dig the thermometer out and place it on top of the snow? I wish I had a bigger garden but Thanks for any advice. Andy

Yes, a great run and more in line with the latest MetO MRF on the Beeb that put any breakdown well into FI. Don't forget early February is well know as a time that produces cold spells and HLB as the Atlantic weakens in response to lower SST so Stella charts are more likely to come off than any during December. Andy

You should do very well, the Lake District Mountains tend to attract the showers as they did last week. Good luck! Andy

Yes, Penrith should be in the firing line as it is at 150meters but we have little from north westerlies recently so I will wait till it starts piling up! Having said that very similar set ups in 2003 and 2002 gave over 10cms. We shall see. Andy

Hmmm, they said that last week and at over 400feet I could only manage 1cms, hopefully, this time will be different. Andy

In some ways I prefer the GFS as it's more likely to bring precipitation. The MetO could be bone dry away from the coast. Either way an interesting week ahead. Andy

Some extremely interesting charts around tonight and ECM is loaded with potential if snow and gales is your thing. Despite being disappointed with the recent cold spell which should have been better up here this winter certainly isn't a borefest and all those Bartlet charts being pumped out at new year have come to nothing. A much better winter than last year but the majority of the UK still awaits a proper wintry spell, north Cumbria included. Andy

Thank God I was in Lanzarote that week as in Penrith we had 1cm that had melted by lunchtime! Normally Penrith is a lot snowier than South West Cumbria, clearly not that year! Are you located near Millom? Andy

You Midlanders must be gutted, twice in the past 4 weeks I have promised my relatives in Tamworth heavy snow due to MetO warnings and twice it's been a flop with Yorkshire nicking your snow! At least here I wasn't promised any in the first place! Why does Edinburgh and Sheffield get so much snow these days, both Cities have on average the same number of days with snow lying as Birmingham - I checked the 1961-1990 average yet both Cities get a snow blitz while brumies miss out, as someone born in Birmingham that ain't fair. Andy It won't look half as pretty by Friday lunchtime! Just jealous Andy

Yes, the ECM 240 is a Stella chart and with the -5c 850 covering the whole UK it would be snow for most. Normally I would regard this as a ECM tease but with so many signals for a deep Euro through this could easily verify. In some ways this has been an interesting winter but not as snowy as it should have been IMBY so I still feel a bit cheated. Andy

Slight covering here, didn't expect anything so a bonus. 6th day with falling snow but never exceeded 2cms, needed another 300feet altitude to getting accumulating snow which was frustrating. Spell was much better in Southern Scotland, around 8cms lying in Motherwell yesterday. Andy

It's also worth noting that any cold zonality will more likely deliver snow to a wider area as we go into February as sea surface temperatures are lower than earlier in the winter, Early March 1995 a classic example. Andy

Thanks Ian, That excellent summary is worth more than a hundred pages of waffle and hope casting you read on here! No offence intended to any individual but I think we are all guilty of seeing what we want to see and Ian's 'View from the Bridge' is very welcome. I have to say the MetO has earned it's funding in the last 12 months with mostly superb short, medium and long range forecasting. Andy