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Everything posted by The Enforcer
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Yesterday's Fax Chart for lunchtime showed a dry interlude between fronts: Of course two troughs pop up out of nowhere to bring more torrential rain: -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
The Enforcer replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Or over the bridge, if the current conditions persist until then. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Classic Quotes #1: "The vortex is completely bust [insert range here always beyond T+120]." Reality: Rain. Classic Quotes #2: "[insert model acronym here] is crap." Reality: The weather is crap. Classic Quotes #3: "You don't need low uppers to get snow in a frontal situation" Reality: 2m temps, dew points, DAM, precipitation intensity etc etc all conducive to snow, uppers weren't - outcome: rain. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
There has been so little sun here, I expect the shops have sold out. If they're not closed due to flooding. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
My pet hate at the moment: cherry-picking specific perturbations from an ensemble suite. Surely the whole point of ensembles is that you are supposed to read them as a whole to provide the perspective against which any individual run sits. Otherwise it's an illusion of cold. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
No sun here for over a week now, so trying a different location for the next five days: Stockport. Here's the latest 5-day forecast: Thursday: rain Friday: rain Saturday: rain Sunday: rain Monday: rain -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
The Enforcer replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well quite. The very low success rate of genuinely cold charts beyond T+120 means that I cannot view them with anything other than a mix of intense scepticism and suspicion. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It wouldn't be so bad if the bands of heavy rain weren't interspersed with rain. This morning being a prime example. The last 'cold and dry' spell brought rain and flooding. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
The Enforcer replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can be predictable, but chiefly only where mild winter weather forms the basis of the prediction. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It's a nice image and all, but after 13 'anomalously' mild Xmases in a row, it would be more realistic to dispense with this myth and show a 'cloudy and wet' image as that is the predominant weather type. The exception being if the forecast is predicting that it would be predominantly cold and snowy, which it isn't. -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
The Enforcer replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Of course it's wrong - it's beyond T+300. At that range I've been predicted more snowfall so far this season than I've seen in the previous 5 winters combined. Actual = 0 falling snow, let alone any accumulations. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Forget the hunt for snow, this winter is turning into the hunt for sun. OK, so today was always going to be really wet, but when it stopped raining at 2pm I thought I might see a sunset: But no, of course this has to happen: Why does this keep happening? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
The Enforcer replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
I don't get why there is surprise when support for a potential cold spell diminishes or disappears beyond the 5 day range. It happens more often than not, so the surprise should really occur when support for the cold spell doesn't diminish up to that range. -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
December 2023 so far: LP westerly winds - outcome = rain. LP southerly winds - outcome = rain. LP easterly winds - outcome = rain. LP northerly winds - outcome = rain. HP sat over UK - outcome = rain. -
Hi, I wondered if anyone is able to advise whether any one of the three weather stations listed below is better than the others: 1. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bresser-Weather-Station-Control-German/dp/B0170A47DI/ref=sr_1_5?crid=3SEFGUJ66VHKP&keywords=bresser%2Bweather%2Bstation%2B5-in-1&qid=1702910290&sprefix=bresser%2B%2Caps%2C236&sr=8-5&th=1 2. https://www.amazon.co.uk/Official-Wunderground-WeatherCloud-direction-Temperature/dp/B0881W15PD/ref=sr_1_108?crid=1ZDN879CLTAOM&keywords=5%2Bin%2B1%2Bweather%2Bstation&qid=1702910923&sprefix=5%2Bin%2B1%2Bweather%2Bstation%2Caps%2C221&sr=8-108&th=1 3. ACCUR8 DWS5100 5-in-1 Complete Solar-Powered WiFi Weather Station with Weather Alerts WWW.WEATHERSHOP.CO.UK View your weather on the colour display, mobile app or online! The ACCUR8 DWS5100 5-in-1 Solar-Powered Wi-Fi weather station combines a modern compact design with the ability to publish your weather conditions... Cheers, TE
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
"Cold spell forecast with wind and rain." -
Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
The Enforcer replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
What else can I moan about? Ah yes, the last dry day on Saturday was forecast to be sunny, but didn't see the sun at all. Looking at the charts, this current procession of wet days seems to want to deny the sun a reappearance until next Monday. Oh joy.