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The Enforcer

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Everything posted by The Enforcer

  1. The Enforcer
    Well I was under the impression that the LWPs tracking further south during the week would help to strengthen the cold. However, the opposite seems to have happened here.
  2. The Enforcer
    Would be the coldest BBQ ever. It is worth monitoring to see if the block to the north can push those LWPs incrementally further south over the next 14 runs. Why is it that the one feature that brings rain is the only one that seems to stick on the charts.
  3. The Enforcer
    Another question: Why don't the Metoffice put the DAM lines on the Analysis or T+24 charts?
  4. The Enforcer
    GFS can take some credit by being the model that first wanted to make something of the inital mid-Atlantic ridge, but then blotted its copybook with the bowling ball LWP fiasco in later frames. In the previous thread, someone also posted an ECM chart for I think this Thursday when it was about 10 days away with an easterly flow over the UK, but they also posted an ECM chart dated 24 hours earlier for the same timeframe showing a bowling ball LP with raging south-westerlies.
  5. The Enforcer
    How's that Canadian warming coming along - 7th December wasn't it?
  6. The Enforcer
    Model output in "Can't guarantee widespread snowfall 10 days from now" shocker.
  7. The Enforcer
    I am sure it even counts sleet as accumulated snow. I mean, whoever heard of a sleetman? Yes, it's potentially going to be at least a week of the hit and miss 'feature lottery' show, presented by *insert duty forecaster* "Which favoured area will strike it lucky tonight?"
  8. The Enforcer
    I always envisage the MetOffice having a YTS trainee of the equivalent standing of Father Dougal McGuire in Father Ted: "YOU LET DOUGAL ISSUE THE UPDATE?!!!"
  9. The Enforcer
    If UKV took over GFS precipitation charts.
  10. The Enforcer
    The danger with a relaxation phase is that it tends to last for 3 months.
  11. The Enforcer
    There was a chart posted in here earlier from January 1881 I think. It looks like JMA is trying to copy it, synoptically anyway. I think it's fair to say that numerous solutions are going to be offered up by the hi-res models between now and T+0 and there will still be some significant differences at that point too.
  12. The Enforcer
    That looks more like trough disruption into the Pyrenees and then the UK gets hit with a full on bowling ball. Fortunately, low confidence in that particular outcome.
  13. The Enforcer
    It's as if UKV has put the LWP on 'ignore'.
  14. The Enforcer
    I can't see how the level of blocking Day 8+ can possibly be resolved whilst there is so much variation in the period before that, primarily the position, intensity, amount of phasing, of LWP, which has knock-on implications for the blocking beyond that.
  15. The Enforcer
    They'd never be able to get there when all the snow next week closes the airports and the North Sea freezes over.
  16. The Enforcer
    The other aspect in common with early December 2022 is that at the point this is supposed to happen, the Atlantic Jet is totally fragmented and so I question now as I did then what exactly is going to wind this LWP up into winter storm proportions and send it smashing into the UK?
  17. The Enforcer
    If a scenario looks far-fetched and ridiculous on GFS, regardless of how much ensemble support the scenario has, then it probably is (with the caveat that the ridiculousness is shown at a range where there is variation in output).
  18. The Enforcer
    I was referring to that earlier. GFS is doing exactly the same as it did then, blowing it up into a massive hurricane right over the UK on its runs for days on end and then suddenly deciding not to do that anymore and it I think it ended up being a minor LWP somewhere near Portugal in reality.
  19. The Enforcer
    And as with the 06z and 12z they the vast majority drop back down again rather than staying above the red line.
  20. The Enforcer
    I wonder if we could be set for a bizarre winter where it is totally blocked, but every week a LWP appears that has to clear before a cold feed can set in and by the time it does, another LWP (not modelled on the above chart) is then modelled and we have to wait for that to clear, thereby setting the cold feed back another week and so on.
  21. The Enforcer
    Knowing GEFS they will probably now say the OP is a cold outlier with the mean LWP over Iceland.
  22. The Enforcer
    Mind you, last December it kept trying to predict that a potential cold spell would be messed up by guiding a hurricane all the way across the Atlantic right on top of the UK. It did that for days. Then it didn't.
  23. The Enforcer
    I look with envy in every direction imaginable. In fact, I just look with envy.
  24. The Enforcer
    How can the operational run be so far away from the range of all the other ensembles?
  25. The Enforcer
    It doesn't look far off a 50:50 split. At least the milder pack then go colder afterwards. However, it's annoying that the mild sector, which was shown yesterday to be on Monday is now there on Thursday - even on the best case UKMO run.
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