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The Enforcer

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  1. The Enforcer
    Also, precipitation might turn up in the 11.5 hours or so when the sun isn't up.
  2. The Enforcer
    No prizes for guessing where the precipitation will be concentrated.
  3. The Enforcer
    Time for some more random GEFS charts from the same T+192 timeframe: south-westerly south-westerly to south-easterly UK High UK High north-easterly
  4. The Enforcer
    I thought some viewers might find it useful to see a random selection of GEFS charts for the same timeframe to give a more balanced representation of how the near future might pan out:
  5. The Enforcer
    Well I must say, that photo almost precisely represents my thoughts in pictorial form resulting from a 'best case scenario': overnight snowcover rapidly melting.
  6. The Enforcer
    I should have given examples too: - February/March 2005 - November/December 2010 (until a trough on 18th) - March 2018 (until the frontal snow arrived)
  7. The Enforcer
    However, it doesn't help snow to settle when ground temperatures are anomalously warm. Unable to get any snow cover down prevents air temperatures dropping sufficiently to support more significant snow cover and therefore even the 'best case scenario' manifests itself in the form of days/weeks of wispy flakes blowing around in the wind.
  8. The Enforcer
    Is there any accompanying 2m temperature and dewpoint data for this ECM run on 4th March, which would help to support these assertions?
  9. The Enforcer
    Consistency is a square-shaped peg. Charts beyond T+120 are a round-shaped hole.
  10. The Enforcer
    However, the reality is more likely to be flakes constantly blowing around in the wind and failing to provide any accummulations. However, even that would represent an improvement upon the December & January cold interludes.
  11. The Enforcer
    That would make sense regarding intensity, but the snow over the sea is lighter precipitation than that shown over northern hills.
  12. The Enforcer
    Another nonesensical precipitation chart with snow at sea level on the south coast and yet rain over the Chilterns at 250m ASL and even over the Peak District and Pennines further north.
  13. The Enforcer
    Standard for T+380. Try getting that to stick through another 64 runs.
  14. The Enforcer
    Snow at sea level, but rain over Snowdonia = low confidence.
  15. The Enforcer
    Almost guaranteed it seems:
  16. The Enforcer
    They won't need that, regardless of whether there are actually any background signals or not, GFS will continue to churn out phantom easterlies at range every few days for the next couple of months.
  17. The Enforcer
    This reminded me of the bottom video, which is a sendup of the top video, so I recommend watching top first then bottom:
  18. The Enforcer
    If only GFS had a reputation for holding on to its output for 27 runs without downgrading it in some way, then we could genuinely look forward to a cold and potentially snowy near future. It doesnt....and we can't.
  19. The Enforcer
    Models come up with a decent pattern and depth of cold, but only at range, then play a variant of 'Whack-a-Mole', called 'Whack-a-Shortwave', where we all try to guess where and when the previously unmodelled spoiler shortwave will appear.
  20. The Enforcer
    Now that is stretching my memory, but given my recollection is that the end of November 2010 was already polar continental, all GFS had to do there was maintain the status quo. Here, it has to hold onto a pattern change. If my memory is wrong, then one victory in 13 years doesn't inspire confidence.
  21. The Enforcer
    Have I ever observed GFS display the sort of consistency required to hold onto an idea for 40 runs? Well, the answer isn't 'yes'.
  22. The Enforcer
    Of course, rain showers from a north-easterly are never blocked by hills.
  23. The Enforcer
    OK, so no precipitation in the recent unstable polar air, but heavy rain crops up of all places in the middle of a High Pressure at c.1030mb.
  24. The Enforcer
    Another cold spell with surprise snowfalls? There's no snowfall. That is the surprise.
  25. The Enforcer
    Temperature did get below -5C earlier. Now -3.9C.
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