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The Enforcer

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  1. The Enforcer
    Or they use a catch-all headline such as "Mild winter ahead, with snow and ice".
  2. The Enforcer
    And as ever, forecasters should concentrate on getting the short-range output correct before looking further afield: Convective forecast 14th Nov "Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms look to graze southern coastal counties of England Tuesday morning as they run east across the English Channel and eventually into the far N of France during the afternoon. Hail and intense rainfall leading to localised flooding is possible" Actual:
  3. The Enforcer
    I always find it premature to start chasing snow (at T+300+ or wherever) until there's at least been a frost. This is shaping up to being another frost-less autumn here.
  4. The Enforcer
    Force her to read the MOD thread every day over the winter season. Now that's character building.
  5. The Enforcer
    Nowhere near the north sea coast, but 100% cloud cover here 100% of the day. What a missed opportunity and what a crap short range BBC forecast that had never forecast anything other than wall to wall sunshine.
  6. The Enforcer
    When I follow the radar, that rain has moved up from the south. The rain from the northern front is broadly where expected over central Scotland and you can see the trough correctly modelled over Isle of Man on the 6am radar. The forecast for further north talks about precipitation, but in the form of showers and even storms. Conversely, here, where it is forecast to rain all day, the sun is now shining.
  7. The Enforcer
    Rubbish nowcast for North-West England and North Wales - fax chart shows a channel low with fronts skimming the south coast and in reality there's a mass of rain extending to Anglesey and north of Manchester:
  8. The Enforcer
    Radar watch time: 2355: 0000: Oh for the love of....
  9. The Enforcer
    If I don't manage to better the above at some point over the next 24 hours, those models deserve to have their arses kicked.
  10. The Enforcer
    "This will come down to radar watching"
  11. The Enforcer
    Interesting question: at what % verification does a model become wrong?
  12. The Enforcer
    Any similarities with this situation? "What about snow from that cold front?" "It's a decaying feature." Red warning - every dog has its day.
  13. The Enforcer
    I am sure you have noticed the model volatility and UKMO is no exception to this. It would be no surprise to see both today's 12z and tomorrow's 00z outputs look different, prompting adjustments to the warning areas. Oh good even more spaghetti on the charts to untangle.
  14. The Enforcer
    It's not when the rise occurs or how far it rises, it's the sharpness of the rise. As shallow as possible would maximise the possibility of falling and settling snow before the inevitable mild sector.
  15. The Enforcer
    It is highly likely that the alignment of the front on that chart will show even greater volatility than the present T+96 one.
  16. The Enforcer
    I can envisage that front appearing anywhere between the south coast and north of the border on subsequent faxes - and probably both extremes at some point.
  17. The Enforcer
    I predict the 00z will be further north mid week and further south late week. Then the reverse for the 06z and so on.
  18. The Enforcer
    Statement required editing.
  19. The Enforcer
    T+90/96 Comparison: ARPEGE 18z GFS 18z ICON 18z JMA 18z UKMO 12z ECMWF 12z GEM 12z NAVGEM 12z CFS 12z NASA/GEOS5 12z Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98450-model-output-discussion-a-cold-start-to-spring/?do=findComment&comment=4816683
  20. The Enforcer
    T+90/96 Comparison: ARPEGE 18z GFS 18z ICON 18z JMA 18z UKMO 12z ECMWF 12z GEM 12z NAVGEM 12z CFS 12z NASA/GEOS5 12z
  21. The Enforcer
    I was hopeful that these charts might be more accurate than Meteociel, however, rain in front of the snow does not inspire confidence.
  22. The Enforcer
    Worth doing a comparison of most models at T+96, to see how much variation there is: UKMO 12z ECMWF12z GFS18z GEM12z JMA12z ICON18z NAVGEM12z NASA/GEOS512z ARPEGE18z It definitely seems like the 18zs are picking up on a greater signal for a North Sea Low to form. ICON is also the only run that gets -8C 850s south of the border.
  23. The Enforcer
    Don't worry, it will probably be closer to Iberia by then.
  24. The Enforcer
    Unfortunately, the snow/rain identification is all over the place again - e.g. snow in southern lowland and coastal areas from light precipitation and rain on welsh mountains and the Peak District from heavy precipitation = zero confidence.
  25. The Enforcer
    ECMWF 12z GFS 18z GFS looks colder/snowier to my untrained eyes at T+96 at least.
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