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The Enforcer

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  1. The Enforcer
    Only 84 runs to go until verification. What could possibly go wrong?
  2. The Enforcer
    It is typical of GFS to be the model most inclined to promote a blocked pattern for several days and yet once there is general agreement amongst the models it veers off towards the mildest possible outcome.
  3. The Enforcer
    I have made a note to revisit this on 7th December to see what it really looks like.
  4. The Enforcer
    Right, close the forum. Everyone off to Dennis' house for the winter. Job done. It's not much use when the Jet goes rocketing over the top.
  5. The Enforcer
    A question: What causes the kink in the isobars often seen here? Why don't they go straight across the North Sea?
  6. The Enforcer
    They are just forecasts, after all. Less of an issue in November with the entire winter season ahead.
  7. The Enforcer
    If it's any help, here is a quote from Rob McElwee [T+12 8pm 17/12/2010]: "The area of snow has changed. Well it has. It will move about. This is a forecast."
  8. The Enforcer
    The aspect I can't get my head around in the MOD thread is the constant desire to try to identify some sort of arbitrary cut-off point along the lines of "it will definitely be sorted by then" when there are usually dozens of runs left and so invariably the cut-off point doesn't materialise as expected and nor should it until T+0 (e.g recent warning/no warnings debacle).
  9. The Enforcer
    Of course. Oh you'd be surprised.
  10. The Enforcer
    Never trust low-resolution precipitation charts. Setting aside the issue of range and taking that chart on face value, there's nonsense shown such as snow off the south-coast of England, yet rain over parts of the Scottish Highlands and the Brecon Beacons.
  11. The Enforcer
    The best case scenario could be described as 'patchy'. Fortunately, it's at T+240, so there's 40 runs to go.
  12. The Enforcer
  13. The Enforcer
    Cold. But not cold enough.
  14. The Enforcer
    But don't trust one of these to be correctly modelled at 6 hours, let alone 6 days, if this week is anything to go by: Monday - forecast: system skimming the southcoast - a few light showers; actual: torrential rain and flooding all morning. Thursday - forecast: yellow warning for heavy rain and strong winds all day; actual: no rain and light winds.
  15. The Enforcer
    3 weeks later into the season might have helped there. If only this was in the middle of the pack, but it's right at the extremity.
  16. The Enforcer
    Synoptics says "go", cold says "no". To be expected in November really.
  17. The Enforcer
    It will probably barely move from that all winter. Rogue hard frost in May to kill off all the plants.
  18. The Enforcer
    Maybe there is a small % from livestock farting?
  19. The Enforcer
    All looks very patchy as if the rain band has got stretched. Last chart I saw for midnight had the front over the south-west. In reality, it has reached East Anglia. That's now three systems on the bounce this week that the forescasts have got totally wrong in terms of timing/spread/intensity at very short range.
  20. The Enforcer
    The rain started here over an hour ago. I thought the front wasn't due here until the small hours?
  21. The Enforcer
    And here lies the crux of the problem. One can wait all winter (and early spring) for the charts to deliver on their many promises to bring some polar air. And when that opportunity finally arrives it's rain.
  22. The Enforcer
    Two poor short range forecasts for back to back atlantic-driven weather systems.
  23. The Enforcer
    The lightest of frosts this morning, of course the only place it gave a thick layer was the car windows. An improvement of sorts compared with 2021 and 2022 in the sense that a frost arrived before autumn departed.
  24. The Enforcer
    Don't forecast in the other direction, increasingly unreliable the closer it gets.
  25. The Enforcer
    Unanimous agreement at that range must be almost unprecedented. Do you know how long this has been the case? Has it been like that for months or has this emerged on the latest runs?
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