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The Enforcer

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Everything posted by The Enforcer

  1. The Enforcer
    If the Atlantic is supposedly dead, where is this stream of Lows coming from?
  2. The Enforcer
    Don't they base these on the previous set of runs?
  3. The Enforcer
    And when that happens and it isn't spring?
  4. The Enforcer
    Thank you for the replies. So what causes the problem with easterlies where there are no showers generated and only low cloud?
  5. The Enforcer
    Am I right in thinking that you mean that the convection doesn't occur rather than it does occur, but is too warm so only produces rain? In which case why is there no convection generated, but disturbances are generated by the same air/sea temperature profile?
  6. The Enforcer
    Another question: At this time of year in the forecasted synoptic scenario, is it better to have a sharp easterly flow or a slack easterly flow?
  7. The Enforcer
    There's probably as much chance of snowfall over Portugal as over the UK, in respect of any genuinely polar continental flow having a tendency to ultimately establish itself further south across Europe where it would not be modified to hell by anomalous sea temperatures.
  8. The Enforcer
    Honestly, what a waste of time trotting out such 'currently' inaccurate information?
  9. The Enforcer
    Anyone got the T+72 and T+0 charts for that one?
  10. The Enforcer
    That one should trigger an automatic ban until March.
  11. The Enforcer
    At 10 days out I am not surprised by that. Haven't there been some 10-day ECM charts this week showing similar to the top one that are 'probably' going to end up closer to the top one?
  12. The Enforcer
    Can anyone post charts of what was forecast vs what transpired?
  13. The Enforcer
    Forget Groundhog Day, this is Groundhog Year. What could possibly go wrong?
  14. The Enforcer
    I can't find an 850 chart unfortunately, but I'm fairly certain that one didn't have a mild sector over the UK.
  15. The Enforcer
    What timescale are these please, it has got cut off? Well even the ever-optimistic low-res chart says 'no' at the moment.
  16. The Enforcer
    Still in the mild sector on Thursday.
  17. The Enforcer
    Mild sector again.
  18. The Enforcer
    As shown here, which also shows it was very much a hit and miss affair for the south in general.
  19. The Enforcer
    Yes, not surprised given the relative elevations of our locations.
  20. The Enforcer
    But taken on face value, stuck in the mild sector of an otherwise blocked regime.
  21. The Enforcer
    Why do I get the impression that's the Met Office's default "meanwhile GFS is predicting this" face?
  22. The Enforcer
    Snow over London does tend to distort the picture, but this is understandable as it happens so infrequently.
  23. The Enforcer
    Have to approach these early winter cold spells with an open mind. If you look back at the first half of December 2022, it's blocked and the charts look great, but this was the best it had to offer:
  24. The Enforcer
    It shall henceforth be known as 'LWP' - Low Without Portfolio.
  25. The Enforcer
    I am not surprised. At a range of T+200, I very much doubt any of the models are from run to run.
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