Wilma Watching

[SnowBear]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 242106

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE PASSING OVER FLORIDA.  AN

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT

LEVEL WINDS OF 132 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 105 KT SURFACE

WINDS...PROVIDING THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE

HURRICANE ALSO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW RACING

NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 32 KT.  WHEN WILMA TRANSFORMS INTO AN

EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT CERTAIN.  IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO KEEP

FROM BECOMING TOO ENTANGLED WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER

THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE WHILE RUNNING

ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.  WILMA HAS BEEN RATHER RESISTANT

TODAY IN ALLOWING ITS INNER CORE TO BE DISRUPTED...AND IT COULD

MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HOLD ON TO

HURRICANE STATUS WELL INTO TOMORROW.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT SHOULD

MAKE THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL...BUT REGARDLESS OF WHEN THAT

DESIGNATION IS MADE...A LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE

WESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT FORECAST THE

EXTRATROPICAL STORM TO TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE

CANADIAN MARITIMES.

FORECASTER KNABB

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 5:15 PM EDT, October 24, 2005

HURRICANE WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER, RACING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES

Hurricane Wilma is quickley on her way out to sea in the open Atlantic this evening. Wilma has strengthened a little more this evening bringing the hurricane force winds around the center to near 120mph once again and satellite images still show a well defined hurricane now in the Atlantic off Florida's east coast. Moving northeast at nearly 40mph, by 2pm tomorrow Wilma should be well off the New Englan coastline. Wilma will be merging with the leftovers of Tropical Storm Alpha on her way out and could feel the effects of a low pressure area that is forecast to develop off the Carolinas. This could help to bring heavy rains and some gust winds along the east coast from the Carolinas all the way to New England through tomorrow evening. The forecast track brings Wilma very close to the Candian Maritimes Wednesday as it should be transitioning to an extratropical system sometime in the next day or so. If you live in the northeast and in Canada, you need to follow the track of Wilma closely until she is well out of the picture. The rest of the tropics appear to be quiet with no evidence of any other systems organizing right now. There will be another update later this evening near 11pm.

Mark and James want everyone to know that they are safe in Naples, Florida. The sun has started to come out and the clean up is underway. Mark had a wind gust to 135mph on the Checy Tahoe this morning as the backside, or western eyewall of Wilma came ashore. Power is out in the area, lots of trees downed, street flooding and debris litters the roadways. Mark said you could tell that the area has not seen a major hurricane in some time as it appears that Wilma has thinned things out. If you are from the area and evacuated, please stay put until the all clear has been given and that it is now safe to return to your homes and businesses by your local officials. Mark and James are out documenting the damage and will have a full update with new video here later this evening.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Kain]

Channel 559 on Sky has a brilliant Hurrincane porgram on now, about last years season.

Kain

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 242230

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/22:17:10Z

B. 29 deg 30 min N

  076 deg 48 min W

C. 850 mb 1035 m

D. 100 kt

E. 228 deg 064 nm

F. 318 deg124 kt

G. 228 deg 053 nm

H.         955 mb

I.  14 C/ 1522 m

J.  21 C/ 1523 m //Inner to outer eyewall temps increasing quite a bit, 8c difference all told//

K.  20 C/ NA

L. OPEN S

M. C65

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 3  nm

P. AF304 2724A WILMA        OB 23

MAX FL WIND 136 KT S QUAD 20:01:40 Z

MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 229 / 31NM

WEAK EYEWALL STRUCTURE IN EAST

Edited October 24, 2005 by SnowBear

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 242341

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/23:30:00Z

B. 30 deg 00 min N

076 deg 15 min W

C. 850 mb 1064 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 087 deg 065 kt

G. 360 deg 015 nm

H. 959 mb

I. 15 C/ 1531 m

J. 20 C/ 1519 m

K. 20 C/ NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C65

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF304 2724A WILMA OB 29

MAX FL WIND 136 KT S QUAD 20:01:40 Z

WIND CENTER IMBEDDED ALONG NORTH WALL

Edited October 25, 2005 by SnowBear

[Polar Bear]

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

What is the score girls and boys this morning? how is she looking?

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 5:15 PM EDT, October 24, 2005

WILMA LEAVES A LEGACY THAT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR YEARS

When we look back at the 2005 hurricane season, we will remember a lot of extraordinary events. Wilma will certainly be one of them. Not only was it the lat name on the regular list of names for this season, but also remember that Wilma was the most intense hurricane ever recorded. I find it interesting to think about all of the factors that lead to the eventual landfall of this unique and historic hurricane. It is incredible that Wilma had a two mile wide eye at one point and then had a 50-60 mile wide eye (perhaps even 70) as it closed in on Florida. But now it is all over. Wilma is out in the Atlantic Ocean and it should transition in to more of a winter-type storm in the coming days. The only concerns will be the chance of rough beach conditions due to the swells that Wilma will generate over the next day or so. It looks like even the Canadian Maritimes will not have to deal with any major effects of this once super-powerful hurricane.

Now the tropics are truly quiet. I see no areas that bear watching in the coming days. We still have about a month to go before the hurricane season ends- so at least keep up to date on the latest news concerning the tropics. I will be working on the 2005 DVD but will keep an eye on things just in case our 23rd named storm is on the horizon. Sounds unreal, doesn't it? It certainly has been.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Kain]

Shes moving 47mph NE. I have never known a Hurricane move so quick!

Shes still a cat 3, but looking at the loop this morning shes starting to break up, the eye has already began to fill in.

Bye Bye Wilma, thanks for the show!

Kain

[Hurricane Debby]

Florida reeling from Hurricane Wilma's rampage

Roof is torn away by high winds during Hurricane Wilma in Florida

By Michael Christie

MIAMI (Reuters) - Southern Florida was reeling on Tuesday after enduring a four-hour assault by Hurricane Wilma that killed at least four people, cut power to millions of homes and caused billions of dollars in damage.

The storm smashed into the state on Monday as a surprisingly strong Category 3 hurricane with 125-mph (200-kph) winds, having fed on the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico after killing 17 people in a rampage through the Caribbean.

Wilma flooded the low-lying Florida Keys, then hit the mainland south of the fast-growing retirement city of Naples and sped across the Everglades to the populous Miami-Fort Lauderdale area on the Atlantic Coast, blasting windows out of high-rise buildings, destroying mobile homes and flipping cars.

Forecasters said Wilma was the strongest storm to hit the Miami area since August 1992, when Hurricane Andrew caused more than $25 billion in damage. It was the eighth hurricane to strike Florida in 15 months.

Monica Rivadeneira, 34, retreated to a closet when Wilma's winds whipped concrete blocks against her Miami Beach apartment building. "I took a book and a light and my cell phone and I called everybody I knew from the closet," she said.

"It was wild. The wind was howling."

Miami International Airport suffered damage likely to keep it closed for several days.

Wilma's power stunned thousands who had ignored orders to evacuate the Florida Keys.

It pushed a wall of seawater about 8 feet (2.4 metres) above normal tides into the island chain off mainland Florida's southern tip, dumping thigh-high water in the streets of Key West, the tourist town made famous by writer Ernest Hemingway.

The town, home to 25,000 people, may have sustained $100 million in damage, City Manager Julio Avael said. "We have hundreds of homes under water, thousands of vehicles damaged, and we need to place residents in shelters," he said.

The storm forced the postponement of Key West's annual Fantasy Fest, an annual Halloween costume festival that draws thousands of visitors and had been due to start on Wednesday.

WIND, RAIN SEEN FOR U.S. NORTHEAST

At 11 p.m. on Monday (0300 GMT on Tuesday), Wilma remained a Category 3 hurricane with top sustained winds of 125 mph (200 kph) as it raced northeast over the Atlantic parallel to the U.S. East Coast at 47 mph (76 kph), the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said.

Wilma was expected to pass a few hundred miles southeast and east of North Carolina's Outer Banks by Tuesday morning and possibly reach the Canadian Maritimes by late Tuesday or early on Wednesday.

Although it was not expected to directly affect the East Coast, Wilma was expected to combine with other weather systems to bring high winds, heavy rain, and even snow to parts of the U.S. Northeast, forecasters said.

Before hitting Florida, Wilma devastated the tourist resort of Cancun, Mexico, over the weekend.

The first few foreign tourists headed home from the resort on Monday, but thousands remained in shelters where they have been stranded for days by the hurricane without electricity or running water.

"I am totally and utterly fed up and dying to get out of here. It's been horrible," said Sally Goodrick, 42, a British beauty therapist travelling with her mother.

Wilma killed seven people in Mexico and triggered mudslides that killed 10 people last week in Haiti.

The storm also pounded Cuba, paralysing Havana and flooding coastal neighbourhoods with 86-mph (138-kph) winds.

This year's hurricane season, which does not end until November 30, has spawned three of the most intense Atlantic storms on record: Katrina devastated New Orleans in August and killed 1,200, Rita hit the Texas-Louisiana border a few weeks later, and Wilma at one point boasted the lowest barometric pressure reading ever observed in the Atlantic basin.

[SnowBear]

Public Advisory

000

WTNT34 KNHC 250848

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER  41

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

...WILMA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES...

505 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH ...85 KM/HR...AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KEEPING

WILMA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 430 MILES...695 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  965 MB...28.50 INCHES.

ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE U.S. EAST

COAST...HIGH SURF IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC

STATES.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

OFFICE.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...34.8 N... 70.0 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 53 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

And Discussion

000

WTNT44 KNHC 250847

TCDAT4

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE

EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS

SYMMETRIC.  THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO

THE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO

SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING.  THE INITIAL

INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER

ROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

THE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT

STRAIGHTFORWARD.  IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

BRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER

THAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN

ANTICIPATED.  GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN

EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE

UKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS

DEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE

THE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE

CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A

SEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS

THE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD WILMA

COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE

DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      25/0900Z 34.8N  70.0W  100 KT

12HR VT    25/1800Z 38.9N  64.2W    85 KT

24HR VT    26/0600Z 43.0N  57.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT    26/1800Z 45.0N  51.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT    27/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT    28/0600Z 46.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT    29/0600Z 47.0N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT    30/0600Z 55.0N  20.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[crimsone]

WILMAAAAAA!

(sorry. couldn't resist )

[kold weather]

Wilma seems to be completely faalling apart now and its eye has completely gone and is now just a alrege mass of cloud,probably down t oa weak cat-2 already if that.It's moving very quickly still and will probably stay at this sort of foward speed until it reaches further north where it should slow down as a strong extra-tropical storm.Infact I suspect it may already be going extra-tropical or in the first phases with such a large wind-field which is typical of a strom starting to go extra-tropical although I'd suspect its stil lin the early phases of that.

Still its hang alot longer then most including me were thinking,the NHC thought it'd be a cat-1 by 4am last night,insted it was a 120mph cat-3 and its impressive to see just how far Wilma has travelled over the last 12hrs.

[SnowBear]

Ya know, why were people "surprised" at Wilma's strength at the FL landfall, this has been discussed for days and days now, uncertainty yes at what strength she would make landfall, but was always pretty much going to be a hurricane at landfall and with these things and how quickly they can build in 24.......even 12 hours, the worst should be prepared for.

Wilma was a Cat4/5 at the Yucatan landfall, and I dont think any storm would dissapate that quickly even with wind sheer. That energy and moisture stored in the storm in the has to go somewhere.

The tracks have been pretty consistant all the way through from the NHC, and I thought they were the official system in the US that peeps were sposed to take note of.

The Keys were told to evacuate, and yet I read somewhere only 10% did ??

Amazing really after the lessons of Katrina, Rita and the run of hurricanes that have gone through Florida in the past 2 years.

[kold weather]

Hi Snowbear,your right this track has been on the cards for a long time and the strengthening despite what the NHC was always possible if it sorted out its inner core,which sure enough it did so.Well done to the NHC for keeping a good track from a few days out.Here's what I said on the 15th,turned out to be very close to the truth,bar the first landfall postion:

So track for me would have to be the same one I suspected this afternoon,a Charley kind of track,first landfall a strong cat-4,2nd landfall probably a lower 3,maybe as hig has lower 4

The only thing I weren't expecting was Wilma's top strength and infact SB came quite close thinking 897mbs,I still thought cat-5 but on the lower extreme of that.

[PersianPaladin]

Hi Snowbear,your right this track has been on the cards for a long time and the strengthening despite what the NHC was always possible if it sorted out its inner core,which sure enough it did so.Well done to the NHC for keeping a good track from a few days out.Here's what I said on the 15th,turned out to be very close to the truth,bar the first landfall postion:

The only thing I weren't expecting was Wilma's top strength and infact SB came quite close thinking 897mbs,I still thought cat-5 but on the lower extreme of that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

your right...KW.

your predictions are coming up trumps again..

[Polar Bear]

Hi Snowbear,your right this track has been on the cards for a long time and the strengthening despite what the NHC was always possible if it sorted out its inner core,which sure enough it did so.Well done to the NHC for keeping a good track from a few days out.Here's what I said on the 15th,turned out to be very close to the truth,bar the first landfall postion:

The only thing I weren't expecting was Wilma's top strength and infact SB came quite close thinking 897mbs,I still thought cat-5 but on the lower extreme of that.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I just received this image - although that is not to say I dont sympathise with some of the trauma some people have had to go through and still going through as a result of her destruction. Because I do, deeply.

[crimsone]

I just received this image - although that is not to say I dont sympathise with some of the trauma some people have had to go through and still going through as a result of her destruction. Because I do, deeply. 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

LMAO!

[londonsnow]

why have the beeb decided to show one of last weeks world weather forecasts online? susan powell explains how with wilma is now off the yucatan penninsula again and back up to cat 4!! anyone not in the know would be scratching their heads how thats happened. lol

[SnowBear]

Looking back over the threads for Wilma, and also beyond to other systems this year, I think many of us can be pretty darned pleased with ourselves.

Accuracy has been pretty good by many of us, I know I am well chuffed with my achievements this year, considering its the first year I have tracked and forecast hurricanes with any enthusiasm.

Wilma hasnt gone on to be an East Coast hurricane, prefering to zoom off into the Atlantic, which I think, we can all say is a blessing, she has caused enough mayhem now.

I see the makings of a good hurricane forecasting team here, with bits of tech input, knowledge and intuition ( intuition sometimes important in forecasting hurricanes, which lets be honest, often buck against all conformity and tend to act more like a living object).

I for one, hope now we ease into winter with no more majors, maybe a few low order storms to keep our interest out to sea.

Well done all

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd like to add to SnowBears post that a lot of us have also learnt an awful lot over the last few months, so a big thanks to the more knowledgable out there for their help and guidance

So, wheres the snow?

[Hurricane Debby]

Hi all - as this thread no doubt sadly comes to an end I wanted to say how much fun I have had and how much I have learnt from having all the excellent knowledge and experience of NW members. Thanks to everyone for the links etc. Going to feel quite lost now I have to confess ! But heh its not over till the fat lady sings and the season isn't over just yet.

And pleased to spot that Wilma has broken another record in respect that the number of views on this thread now exceeds that of Rita.

Here's hoping for one more hurricane to round off the season

[SnowBear]

A note on the "hits" these threads are taking.

Totals for the big 3 this year on the main threads for each hurricane (remembering this forum is based outside normal hurricane areas)...

Katrina 20,711

Rita 36,204

Wilma 34,317 so far

91,233 so far...more than many forums take in a whole year!

[Hurricane Debby]

Incredible !

[crimsone]

Definately, well done everyone I've learned a lot from Wilma, and I've learned a lot from you guys. :lol:

I don't think this is quite yet ended though - the one last job here in my opinion is to track and forcast the remnants for the possibility of UK landfall.

[Polar Bear]

LMAO!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

crimsone - am very thick especially on abbreviations, can you pm me and tellme what LMAO means - sorry to be a pain!