Wilma Watching

[kold weather]

Eye now pulling away from east Florida and heading out into the atlantic,still looks very good and as I suspected because the eye was so large it has managed to keep ists inner core very well organised,despite getting a tad weaker in terms of convection,esp in the southern eyewall.I expect there wil lbe plenty of damage from Wilma as ther ehave been alot of report sof gusts of 100mph and several above 120mph.Infact even now its still a strong cat-2 at 105mph weith pressure at 956mbs.The system should contniue to rush north-eastwards but with the max MPI lower in the atlantic then in the gulf it'll probably continue to weaken into a cat-1 over the next 48hrs until it becomes extra-tropical and eventually absorbed by a low pressure complex.

and yes we have beaten Wilma's last thread for views but we are stil lsomeway behind hurricane Rita's highest amount which is:

13,193

[Hurricane Debby]

Bloody hell ! Have to confess that despite joining this board last year I hadn't realised about the armchair storm chasing - and the fun to be had - from the NW site until Wilma came along. Gutted I missed out on Rita.

Edit - this year

Edited October 24, 2005 by djm2211

[SnowBear]

So, where will Wilma go next.

000

URNT12 KNHC 241712

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/17:00:30Z

B. 27 deg 42 min N

  079 deg 19 min W

C. 850 mb 1034 m

D. NA  kt

E. NA  deg    nm

F. 026 deg 082 kt

G. 289 deg 050 nm

H.        955 mb

I.  10 C/ 3037 m

J.  20 C/ 1523 m

K.  19 C/ NA

L. WEAK

M. E04/80/60

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 5  nm

P. AF304 2724A WILMA        OB 02

MAX FL WIND 82 KT NW QUAD 16:38:10 Z

POOR EYE DEFINITION ON RADAR

I personally can see the Carolinas/Virgina getting some of Wilma.

[Cassarah]

Just got this from the Canadian Hurricane Centre:

WOCN31 CWHX 241200

HURRICANE WILMA INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN

HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT MONDAY

24 OCTOBER 2005.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

...WILMA FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL STORM WHILE AFFECTING

    THE MARITIMES WITH STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE

26.1 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 W... ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES OR 75 KM

EAST OF NAPLES FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 105

KNOTS... 194 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 955 MB. WILMA IS

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KNOTS... 43 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE    TIME    LAT    LON  MSLP  MAX WIND

          ADT                    MB  KTS  KMH

OCT 24  9.00 AM  26.1N  81.0W  955  105  194

OCT 24  9.00 PM  29.8N  76.1W  973  85  157

OCT 25  9.00 AM  35.7N  70.3W  968  75  139

OCT 25  9.00 PM  42.2N  64.8W  973  60  111 POST-TROPICAL

OCT 26  9.00 AM  46.4N  60.7W  976  55  102 POST-TROPICAL

OCT 26  9.00 PM  48.0N  57.5W  981  55  102 POST-TROPICAL

OCT 27  9.00 AM  48.6N  53.9W  985  55  102 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR PORTIONS

OF THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MARITIMES. THOSE WARNINGS WILL

LIKELY BE EXTENDED TO REGIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST LATER TODAY

AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 110 KM/H ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MAINLAND

NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE-FORCE

WIND GUSTS OF 120 KM/H ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COASTLINE

TUESDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE

40 TO 70 MM RANGE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY MORNING

AND REACH CAPE BRETON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES FROM BROKEN TREE

BRANCHES. MANY TREES..PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS OF NOVA SCOTIA

..STILL CONTAIN LEAVES WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF BROKEN

BRANCHES AND POWER OUTAGES.

HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS AND HEAVY POUNDING SURF ARE FORECAST

TO REACH THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND

DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO

WEDNESDAY BUT THEIR IMPACT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN

NOVA SCOTIA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE EASTERLIES OVER SHELF WATERS

SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THERE IS A RISK OF

HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS MAINLY OVER EASTERN SHORE AND SABLE

REGIONS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS

WILMA REINTENSIFIED TO CATEGORY-THREE STATUS WHEN IT STRUCK THE

SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STORM CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AS THE

DEEP-LAYERED STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS TROUGH

MOVING DOWN FROM THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.

B. PROGNOSTIC

HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT

RACES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA.  THE GEM REGIONAL MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT

REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AT 00HR..AND IS USED AS THE PRIMARY

GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENT. IT SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE TWO CYCLONES..

WILMA AND A BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE

HURRICANE AS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE..DEEP TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES INTO

THE EASTERN U.S. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN COCOONED IN THE WARM

SECTOR OF THE BAROCLINIC LOW EVEN UP UNTIL THE CENTER OF EX-WILMA

REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. WILMA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN THE 582-DAM

THICKNESS ENVIRONMENT ALL THE WAY TO 45N.  THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE

THAT WILMA WILL BEHAVE AS A HYBRID CYCLONE WITH A VERY LARGE

CIRCULATION...YET WITH A COMPACT WIND CORE POSSIBLY SURVIVING AS IT

MOVES INTO CANADIAN WATERS.

BY WEDNESDAY..THE REMANTS OF EX-WILMA AND THE BAROCLINIC LOW MAY BE

MERGED INTO A LARGE DECAYING LOW OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA MAY ALSO BECOME INGESTED INTO

THE WILMA TODAY.  THIS COULD AID IN THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE

STORM SYSTEM.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

SEE DETAILS ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)

TIME          GALES          STORMS            HURRICANE

        NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW    NE  SE  SW  NW

24/12Z  200 210 175 160  125 130 100  85    65  80  55  45

25/00Z  210 230 205 165  115 150 105  75    70  90  65  30

25/12Z  290 265 255 225  105 155 100  35    50  90  50  10

26/00Z  340 300 300 285  125 150  50  30    0  0  0  0

26/12Z  305 300 300 255  140 150  60  70    0  0  0  0

27/00Z  285 300 325 240  150 150 120  80    0  0  0  0

27/12Z  275 300 375 240  190 150 120  80    0  0  0  0

END FOGARTY/ROUSSEL

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Edited October 24, 2005 by Cassarah

[kold weather]

Intrestingly enough despite the forecast for Wilma to weaken its actually briefly getting stronger again under the gulf stream where the max MPI is higher and is roughly on par with the warm loop in the gulf of mexico.Currently Wilma is again a category-3:

Hurricane Wilma Tropical Cyclone Update

Statement as of 1:50 PM EDT on October 24, 2005

...Wilma restrengthens to category 3 over the Gulf Stream...

At about 120 PM EDT...an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported

that maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Wilma were near 115

mph...in a small region south of the center over the Atlantic Ocean

and the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

A special advisory will be issued by approximately 230 PM EDT...

primarily to revise the initial and forecast intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

[dee88]

Webcams of area are down

here http://stormedition.naplesnews.com/

[Thundersquall]

Intrestingly enough despite the forecast for Wilma to weaken its actually briefly getting stronger again under the gulf stream where the max MPI is higher and is roughly on par with the warm loop in the gulf of mexico.Currently Wilma is again a category-3:

Hurricane Wilma Tropical Cyclone Update

Statement as of 1:50 PM EDT on October 24, 2005

...Wilma restrengthens to category 3 over the Gulf Stream...

At about 120 PM EDT...an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported

that maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Wilma were near 115

mph...in a small region south of the center over the Atlantic Ocean

and the extreme northwestern Bahamas.

A special advisory will be issued by approximately 230 PM EDT...

primarily to revise the initial and forecast intensity.

Forecaster Knabb

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm quite new to hurricane predictions, so what are the implications for the British Isles if she's regained her strength to a Category 3?

Interestingly, I did notice the 12Z GFS strengthening the extra-tropical depression (remnants of Hurricane Wilma) to the NW of the British Isles.

[Thundersquall]

Wow - She's still a monster of a storm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[I can't believe it's not better]

Wow - She's still a monster of a storm:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No wasn't expecting to see that!

[londonsnow]

No wasn't expecting to see that!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

'monster' is absolutely the correct word!

[Thundersquall]

This shows really well how Hurricane Wilma didn't really lose much of her strength as she moved roughly NE'wards across Florida and out into the Atlantic Ocean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

That eye is beginning to re-form again, as she attains a Category 3 status once more.

Edited October 24, 2005 by Thundersquall

[Mondy]

Yep, think this is the probably Wilma's last hurrah. Remember she holds the record for lowest pressure in the Atlantic -so i guess she wants to go out proving she was no freak

EDIT: Don't knock the GFDL

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ALPHA MAY ALSO BECOME INGESTED INTO

THE WILMA TODAY.  THIS COULD AID IN THE REINTENSIFICATION OF THE

STORM SYSTEM.

Edited October 24, 2005 by Mondy

[Mondy]

Haven't been on much at all today unfortunetly - what's the general situation regarding Wilma and the UK - or dare i ask??

[kold weather]

Hi Mondy,looks very impressive indeed,I'm glad my forecast for it to weaken only slightly was correct,these type of large eye stable core systems always tend to survive best when going over land,this has proven to be the case and now it has emerged it still has a massive amount of its inner core intact still so there was every chance it'd strengthen over the gulf stream again.

Howveer the eye seems to be open again and its now crossing cooler waters to the east of the gulf stream and so the storms MPI will be reduced and so a steady weakening trend,which is also explained by the eye being open according to recon although it also suggest that the hurricanes central pressure has dropped slightly down to 954mbs.

Wilma should be swept away ENE very rapidly now and must be moving about 30mph at present,still has a huge outflow which is heading northwards which has probably helped Wilma to keep its strength up over land more so then was expected,but as you say Mondy,I too fell Wilma's on its alst Hurrah,but as its always been,it seems stubborn to weaken and seems to have been defying the NHC weakening ideas the whole way along since the start!!!

[crimsone]

I posted a nogaps model in the waiting for beta thread yesterday which suggests that it'll come to the uk by T+144 (as was at the time) as a pretty severe system by its appearance.

In truth, I don't think anybody can know yet, but there's a chance.

[Bilz]

Looks like Bermuda's gonna get a battering by 100mph winds tomorrow morning. But I expect it will be very hit and miss.

[Mondy]

Hi crimsone.

According to the 12z NOGAPS today, she keeps her status for a bit, meets a ridge coming of Nova Scotia (or is Newfoundland - get confused with those two), weakens a lot then becomes a 'normal' N.Atlantic depression headed for N.Uk..

Just wondering about the secondary low behind Wilma in this image??

Edit: The GFS model takes Wilma to Iceland...

Edited October 24, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Oh yes! I hadn't noticed! do we have a new invest?

as an aside, that swirl on the nogaps surface streamlines forms in that exact area at about 70hr on this link...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do...4741763.1779.13

anyways, back on topic (because I guess my post is more one for the Beta thread), any reports on post hurricane Wilma damage in Florida?

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[Bilz]

Looks like it will slide right pass that high to the northeast. That's disappointing...

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 241915

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/18:55:00Z

B. 28 deg 22 min N

078 deg 24 min W

C. 850 mb 1024 m

D. 70 kt

E. 43 deg 044 nm

F. 137 deg 094 kt

G. 042 deg 030 nm

H. 954 mb

I. 15 C/ 1516 m

J. 21 C/ 1517 m

K. 20 C/ NA

L. OPEN E

M. C85

N. 12345/ 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF304 2724A WILMA OB 10

MAX FL WIND 125 KT SE QUAD 17:23:30 Z

WEAK RADAR PRESENTATION OF EYE. 60% COVERAGE.

[I can't believe it's not better]

Apparently 8inchs of snow in NY urea. Wet snow, brought down branches, and lines.

[Mondy]

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

Jeez, she's flying!

[conor123]

:o So its still going strong

[Mondy]

Yeah. Her forward speed is very impressive. Almost 40mph..at this rate she'll be skimming the Canadian coastline -- she'll weaken soon enough though..

[Kain]

How come shes moving so fast?

Kain