Wilma Watching

[Lincs Observation]

Hi all

thought i might post this link to all the major tv stations streaming live news from florida.

if ya like me its good tv and interesting too

heres the Link

http://www.rogersimmons.com/tv/

10abc is the one im watching for as it happens streaming news

Edited October 23, 2005 by Luton Observation

[Mondy]

That links a good 'un LO

[crimsone]

Nice!

[kold weather]

Yes Wilma is increasing in foward speed SB not slowing down,and equally every single model at present brings this system into Florida within the next 36hrs and indeed even satilite images indicat eits getting faster,expect this system to move faster and faster voer the next 24hrs,I suspect getting upto 20mph towards the end.

Another convective burst on the south side and the eyewall looks much better then a few hours ago and its finally clearing out the large eye that it has,must be about 60 miles across but it is also very stable and will not collapse very easy while over land,esp land that is quite moist anyway like the far south of Florida is.I expect this hurricane to get stronger soon again,eye looks much more healthy and as I'v been saying,expect this trend to contniue.

By the way good link LO.

(ps,its not the front that gives Wilma the lift to the north-east,but its the trough that effectivly opens the door to the system to push away rapidly and to the north-east on the eastern side of the trough,the front will have no role in lifting the system)

Edited October 23, 2005 by kold weather

[Lincs Observation]

That links a good 'un LO

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thx Mondy thought you would like the link!

[Mondy]

Wilma & Alpha

[Gray-Wolf]

Back again! Do I see a very big eye clearing out now?? Also the talk of forward motion at 20mph would nearly add a catagory to the strength in some sectors wouldn't it?

[Mondy]

Hi mate.

The eye has been clearing the past few hours now along with a speeding up of forward motion...landfall may well be sooner than expected. Vortex data is coming in thick and fast also..Pressure dropping...

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/19:05:40Z

B. 23 deg 19 min N

085 deg 16 min W

C. 700 mb 2769 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 341 deg 071 kt

G. 260 deg 039 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 13 C/ 3046 m

J. 14 C/ 3046 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. 55

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 4 nm

P. AF304 2124A WILMA OB 27

MAX FL WIND 96 KT S QUAD 17:16:40 Z

SFC CNTR 180 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

CLOUD CURVATURE DEVELOPING WITHIN EYE. STORM SHOWING MORE TILT FROM FLIGHT LEVEL TO SURFACE.

Just to add the eyewall has shrunk 5NM from previous data

[kold weather]

Yes in the southern quadrants the storm should be stronger,it makes a change but when a storm is moving north-east generally the south-eastern qadrant will be the strongest of the 4 qaudrants.

(wow,I think thats the smallest post I've done this weekend!!!)

Edited October 23, 2005 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

I see she's over waters in excess of 29c at the mo' and will never be out of water of 28c or more (even lake ouchiouchi or whaterver it's called )

Sad she's looking like being so quick, another half a day drawing breathe would have done her the power of good!!!

The Floridians still seem to favour staying at home in large numbers so it's probably for the best that she'll be no more than a Cat2/Cat3 when she next reaches land (even after the images coming out of Cancum they just take to the 'new' surf !!!)

[Roger J Smith]

This business about adding speed to the winds on the forward side of the hurricane -- the forecasts issued by the NHC factor in this effect and so when people then do it again they are actually introducing an error of that magnitude to their predictions.

In other words, it's not a case where the prediction is 100 mph and the forward speed is 40 mph so you can expect 140 mph, it's a case of a real forecast of 100 mph based on all factors including forward speed.

(source -- media interview with deputy director of NHC Ed Rappaport today on CNN)

Looks to me as though Wilma is right on track to max out at cat 2/3 boundary intensity and to make landfall between Naples and Everglades City in southwest FL around 09z or 0100 BST, 0500 EDT. Do you change your time this weekend or next? We change ours in N America next weekend.

I will post a link to Florida state weather (bet most of you already have one) later today when the storm gets closer. Right now, Key West still reporting moderate winds of 25-30 mph from SE. Also I will post Key West radar link so you can track the eye. Look for these links at 9:45 pm after I have lunch (yes, lunch).

[Mondy]

RJS - The Key West radar link and others are on Net Weather

http://www.net-weather.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=21589

[kold weather]

Yes thanks for mentioning that Roger.

Alot of squalls now coming into the keys and also the far south-west of Florida,infact Key West was reporting TS force gusts already in one of those squalls,expect more reports of TS gusts within th enext few hours in those storms,also could be some decent tornadoes in some of those outer bands,they could well be pretty impressive as well.

The thing to remember is although Wilma is starting to move quickly,it still has a massive windfeild that stretches out about 450 miles from one side to the other and so there will be a fair amount of tropical storm gusts soon despite the actual storm still about 400 miles away.

(ps,the eye seems to have cleared out quite well today but there is still alot of cloud in there,also seems to be contracting a little as it gets stronger,currently moving north-east and it does seem to be getting faster as well so SW Florida has about another 18hrs before the eye comes over the area,but the strong TS/hurricane winds that can cause damage aren't that far out of the way,still thinking about 10miles north of Naples at the moment but it may be even a little bit further north then that I suspect.)

Edited October 23, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

Tornado watch and flood watch is in effect for all of South Florida.

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Roger J Smith]

Here are some links for this event and future reference in general as far as US weather events are concerned:

(1) State weather observations, updated hourly (around 12 min after the hour) can be accessed from the menu of states at:

iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/textversion/states.html

-- times are given in UTC or z at the top of each list

(2) Doppler radars which update continuously, usually within 5-8 minutes of real time, can be found by clicking on the map which comes up for this link:

weatherimages.org/radar

for Key West click on this to bypass the map

weatherimages.org/radar/kbyx.shtml

Click on "short range loop" to get a one-hour radar loop.

(3) A longer-range radar which already shows the eye of Wilma northwest of Havana Cuba is at this link:

srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p20.r/SI.kbyx/latest.gif

[Hurricane Debby]

Live Streaming Webcam - Naples

And another one!

source

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Been away for a while - arms aren't coping very well with all the exciting weather prospects going on, site visiting, threads to look at etc etc and the RSI as a result! But worth the pain and even more so now it all looks like getting interesting again. At last !

Great link Mondy - thanks - sky is looking VERY interesting right now. Compelling viewing.

And I apologise in advance if my responses don't make any sense but I am high on pain killers :blink:

[summer blizzard]

Current strength is a strong category 2 with sustained windspeeds of 110mph, i expect it to be category 3 in the next advisory and maybe a weak category 4 by landfall.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 5:00 pm EDT, October 23, 2005

WILMA A SOLID CAT-2 NOW AS IT SPEEDS UP TOWARDS FLORIDA- 9 TO 17 FEET STORM SURGE EXPECTED

I am working on the latest info now. I can tell you that Wilma is now up to 105 mph and that the NHC is projecting a storm surge of up to 17 feet. I will have a full report here and a new video update shortly.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[crimsone]

Advisory 34...

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA...

...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IMPACTING WESTERN CUBA AND APPROACHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA

KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ( ...yay!!!!)

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 210 MILES... 340 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 295 MILES... 475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR [volor=blue]14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...WILMA IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES...140 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.  NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF WILMA...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH.  SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE ALSO RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED IN HAVANA CUBA.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 959 MB...28.32 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL  TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTH EASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA... AND 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE KEYS... THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...23.5 N... 84.9 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 959 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

Obviously, the bit in green was added in by myself for effect and celebration, and wasn't there when I copied it :blink:

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Hurricane Debby]

Hope this doesn't come across a stupid question but I'm intrigued - I've always got the impression that hurricanes always hit late at night - in darkness basically. Thats the impression I've got but obviously I don't have any statistics etc. Just something I have always picked up on for some reason. Is this the case ? And if so is there a reason for that ?

[crimsone]

Nah. They hit whenever they want to. It's just sods law that dictates that the one you happen to be watching makes landfall while you're asleep :blink:

Seriously though, from my very quick investigation, it appears you're right. read the abstract of the members only article here (abstract on page...)

http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?reque...LT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Hurricane Debby]

Nah. They hit whenever they want to. It's just sods law that dictates that the one you happen to be watching makes landfall while you're asleep :blink:

Seriously though, from my very quick investigation, it appears you're right. read the abstract of the members only article here (abstract on page...)

http://ams.allenpress.com/amsonline/?reque...LT%3E2.0.CO%3B2

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Thats an interesting link - thanks Crimsone. I've just always recalled - from memory obviously - that just to add salt to the wound bad weather always seems to happen at nightfall. I don't suppose for one second that events like that happening during daylight hours can help or make things any easier. But it must be a lot lot worse to bear when you can't see whats happening around you. Just relying on sound and feel etc. Must be doubling more frightening.

And slightly off topic I know but along the same lines - I've always found that disasters such as oil spillages / ships sinking etc are always made worst by bad weather that immediately seems to follow that hinders rescue / salvage attempts.

Anyway food for thought but back on topic !

[kold weather]

Thanks crimsone,so pressure falling now slightly,not to suprising really and is all down to improved satilite image,which is all down to the inner core finally deciding to become more organised.

Infact there is some serious convective development now in the N.eyewall and the eye has nearly completely gone again thanks to the expansion of the convective actvity,tops are now very cold in the N.qaudrant.This may well cause higher winds to be found and may help to get the hurricane upto 110mph by the time the next recon flies through.

Condtions across SW Florida should now be going downhill with the eye just 200 miles away from Key-west.Feeder bands are likely to have weak TS winds probably upto 45mph gusts.Once the main band of rain arrives expect winds to rapidly increase to hurricane force pretty soon after the main rainmass comes in and winds will peak in the SE eyewall,where sustained winds I feel will be at 115mph maybe even upto 120mph if the shear doesn't arrive in time to imduce a weakening trend on Wilma,this looks like it may wlel be the case this case at present,gusts upto 130mph.Landfall is hard to tell but I'd have thought a northward wobble may occur soon thanks to that lrge convective burst to the north of the eye.Still I expect landfall to be about 10 miles north of Naples,howevr I now feel there is real scope for this hurricane to head a little further north then that but I suppose it all dpeneds now on how many wobbles it takes as to its exact landfall.

Just a quick question SB,what do you base your cat-4 idea on???

(ps,high tide on the keys at 2am EST,could well be a bit of a storm surge there,probably upto 8ft,further north I'm thinking upto 15ft)

Edited October 23, 2005 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

More pics from Kevin in Cancun

[Lincs Observation]

ive been watching 10abc news florida for much of the evening and the story is that a huge low pressure system will move in from the North behind wilma causing what the forecasters say is a kick effect pushing the storm quite quickly into the atlantic then it is due to move toward the Nova Scotia area before tracking across towards us.

My question is what kind of conditions are we due to experience if wilma arrives on our shores, baring in mind it will obsorb tropical storm Alpha on its way???

Edited October 23, 2005 by Luton Observation