Wilma Watching

[crimsone]

Advisory 35A (first intermediate advisory - next due in 2 hours time)

AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA HEADED FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LASHING THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1 AM EDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH ...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER... WILMA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL BEFORE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.  THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL... ACCOMPANIED BY THE STRONGEST WINDS... WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ABOUT 2 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL.  SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS WILMA CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.  A WIND GUST TO 53 MPH WAS REPORTED AT HAVANA CUBA AND A WIND GUST TO 49 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KEY WEST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 17 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES THROUGH TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.  RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TODAY.

SOME TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EDT POSITION......24.7 N... 83.3 W.  MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

Winds at Key West have already reached 70MpH

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[The PIT]

Apprarently, of the people that stayed (90% of them) in the Keys, a number of them are in mobile homes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Got a feeling they won't be staying long silly people.

[crimsone]

I think I'd agree with you there.

position update...

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z... THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE

WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR

ABOUT 70 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH WITH GUSTS TO

75 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

NNNN

LOL - If Mondy, GW and KW and SnowBear don't wake up soon they'll miss the whole thing!

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

New Recon...

URNT12 KNHC 240615

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/05:54:00Z

B. 25 deg 02 min N

083 deg 12 min W

C. 700 mb 2716 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 059 deg 080 kt

G. 309 deg 024 nm

H. 955 mb

I. 11 C/ 3049 m

J. 15 C/ 3046 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C60

N. 1234 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 33

MAX FL WIND 112 KT SW QUAD 04:11:30 Z

MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 301 / 14NM

[kold weather]

Well as I suspected Wilma has been upgraded to a category-3 just before landfall.Eye has cleared out somewhat which is should mean it has gotten stronger and I wouldn't be that suprised if its even strongeer then the NHC think it is now and i fully expect the winds to be upper by the NHC next advisory.The eye is huge,must be about 60 miles wide.Western eyewall depsite showing little on the radar is looking very good on IR with a large convective burst in that quadrant so its worth watching as well.Infact the whoe eyewal has really improved with how it looks and is no doubt in my mind stronger then what it was before,whatever happens,its coming in as a 3 and shear doesn't look strong enough to induce any weakening,so Wilma should keep on gettihng stronger right till landfall.Also as the models predicted the hurricane has increased as well,pressure currently at 955mbs so its gone up ever so slightly but I don't think thats anything to do with weakening and quite the opposite,I think this storm is probably getting stronger,I almost expect it to go upto 130mph.

Wind gusts now reaching hurricane force in the keys as the main band of rain in the outer sections of the eyewall comes ashore onto the keys,western Florida is probably getting winds clsoe to hurricane force as well but the main action will be in the eyewall itslef and infact bot hthe eastern qaudrants do look pretty strong to me and could well contain those cat-3 winds,the western side maybe slightly weaker but I'd guess it still has 105mph winds in there.Eastern Florida now getting the feeder bands relaly feed in,winds gusts now starting to get clsoe to tropical storm gusts,highest reading was 40mph in the east a the last reading.

(ps,a large storm sugrge is gonig to occur soon as wlel with hig htide now occuring in the keys,expect a lot of damage from this one,probably beating Andrew overlal into 3rd place as the costiliest storm ever behind Katrina,I expect alot of deaths as well,it seemed yesterday alot of people just shrugged it off,I sure hope to hell that they are ready for a category-3 otherwise they are in real trouble,infact its estiamted only 14% of the keys residents left,which leaves ALOT of people there.)

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

Looks like we lost that Marco Island webcam

I'm struggling to find another floodlit one, but this one looks live, view of naples beach, and though useless now it should be good if still available on daybreak.

http://63.243.46.98:8082/view/view.shtml

If anybody can find a webcam on the florida coast where you can acctually see something, please post a link.

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Latest from the NHC:

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 35b

Statement as of 3:00 am EDT on October 24, 2005

...Wilma slightly stronger...headed for the southwest coast of

Florida...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida

Keys... including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay...along the

Florida West Coast from Longboat Key southward... and along the

Florida East Coast from Titusville southward... including Lake

Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West

Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river...and along the

Florida East Coast north of Titusville to St. Augustine.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the northeast coast

of Florida from north of St. Augustine to Fernandina Beach.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of

Ciudad de la Habana...la Habana...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical

Storm Warning is in effect for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane

Watch remains in effect for the province of Matanzas. These warnings

and watches will likely be later this morning.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the northwestern

Bahamas...including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands...

Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible

inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued

by your local weather office.

The previous position estimate was a little too far to the east.

At 3 am EDT...0700z...the large eye of Hurricane Wilma was

located near latitude 25.1 north... longitude 82.8 west or about

75 miles west-northwest of Key West Florida and about 95 miles

southwest of Naples Florida.

Wilma is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph... and a continued

increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On

this track the center will make landfall along the southwestern

coast of the Florida Peninsula later this morning. However...this

is a large hurricane and wind gusts to hurricane force have already

spread over portions of the lower Florida Keys. The eastern

portion of the eyewall... accompanied by the strongest winds...

will reach the southwestern coast of Florida about 2 hours before

the center of the large eye makes landfall.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...with higher gusts. Wilma

is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. No

significant change in strength is expected until landfall. Some

weakening is likely as Wilma crosses the southern Florida Peninsula

today.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the

center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up

to 230 miles. A wind gust to 76 mph was recently reported at Key

West.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb...28.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 9 to 17 ft above normal tide levels is

possible along the southwest Florida coast near and to the

south of where the center of Wilma makes landfall. Storm surge

flooding of 5 to 8 ft above normal is possible in the Florida Keys

and Florida Bay... as well as in Lake Okeechobee. Storm surge

flooding of 2 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern

coast of Florida.

Wilma may produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10

inches through today across portions of western Cuba. Rainfall

across southern Florida and portions of central Florida...

including the Florida Keys is expected to be 4 to 8 inches... with

isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of

2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the northwest

Bahamas.

Large swells generated by Wilma will continue to affect portions of

the northeastern Gulf Coast from the Florida Keys northward today.

Some tornadoes are possible over portions of the central and

southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys this morning.

Repeating the 3 am EDT position...25.1 N... 82.8 W. Movement

toward...northeast near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.

Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at

5 am EDT.

Forecaster Pasch

So winds have increased slightly however a recent recon pass has found higher winds through the mini-obs that are run every minute found winds of 130kts,then 134kts then 135kts which would suggest more then the 120mph that the NHC reckon on,I'd find it much more likely as I suspected in the post above to be a 130mph hurricane,of course the NHC probably suspect that the winds don't carry on to ground level,but recon readings suggest at least 10mph higher and I think we'll see a special advisory in the next hour which ups the wind ansd maybe even brings it upto cat-4,just a thoguht base don recent redcon,I'm a tad suprsied though to say the least as this is coming in quite abit above what was expected yesterday,certainly has a shot at bei ng a minimal cat-4 by landflal amazingly enough,although that depends on whether the recon is verified or not.

(ps,still getting hurricane force gusts in the keys I believe,the real high winds should be starting to affect Florida mainland in the next hour or so once the main rainband swings in from the south-west,storm is also getting very quick now,at 20mph and should make landfall in the next 3 hours I reckon and still getting quicker,should be across the Florida state in just a few hours and so i highly doubt it'll weaken that much with such a large and stable eye over land,probably will drop to a cat-2 though by the time it leaves land.

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[Gray-Wolf]

G'mornin' all! Cat3? Key west expecting (or getting) high storm surge and lots of folk staying put? are we looking at a group entry for the Darwin Awards?

[crimsone]

Recon...

URNT12 KNHC 240711

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/06:59:30Z

B. 25 deg 08 min N

082 deg 50 min W

C. 700 mb 2695 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 222 deg 135 kt

G. 124 deg 046 nm

H. 952 mb

I. 8 C/ 3056 m

J. 17 C/ 3047 m

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C65

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF305 2424A WILMA OB 39

MAX FL WIND 135 KT SE QUAD 06:45:40 Z

SOME LIGHTNING VISIBLE IN NW EYEWALL

If this storm had a little more tiume I think it would bomb again. Also, if that eye gets any wider, there won't be any hurricane left! lol

I agree with Kold - It's more intense than the NHC reckon on, and it's getting stronger.

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

G'mornin' all! Cat3? Key west expecting (or getting) high storm surge and lots of folk staying put? are we looking at a group entry for the Darwin Awards?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

PML GW!

That's exacly what I was thinking, but I certainly couldn't have come close to saying it that well. So True!!!

[kold weather]

Thanks for posting that crimsone,it confirms what i thought about the system and that is its getting stronger,and is stronger then the NHc seems to be willing to push it up.We will have to wait until 4am EST for the next message which updates us on the postion of the storm but expect that to upgrade the storm to a 135mph hurricane unless it weaknes over that time,still with lfight winds at 135kts and pressure at 952mbs(which is a drop of 3mbs from last hour) looks like this hurricane is trying to ramp up right befor elandfall,thats the worst case that could happen for Florida,expect alot of people to be in trouble as alot of people have only prepared for a minimal cat-2,not a strong cat-3 and infact even at present its as strong as Katrina was at landfall.Expect Maimi to be close to the S.eyewall,possibly cat-2 sustained there upto 110mph gusts.

The eye is indeed is huge,but very stable which is the worst kind of eye you can have when crossing land as its those that hang on for the longest,hurricane force gusts now also likely affecting the west coast of Florida,key west gusting to hurricane force and also alot of tornadoes occuring during the night,storm surge also occuring quite badly now in the keys.

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

The eye is indeed is huge,but very stable which is the worst kind of eye you can have when crossing land as its those that hang on for the longest,hurricane force gusts now also likely affecting the west coast of Florida,key west gusting to hurricane force and also alot of tornadoes occuring during the night,storm surge also occuring quite badly now in the keys.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Indeed, while bringing more extreme changes in wind directionover a greater area, and covering a greater area with the highest winds.

I'm starting to feel that I was right a few days ago when I said I had a feeling thet "Wilma" will be a retired name after this storm.

[Roger J Smith]

Just watching a live shot from Key West, the CNN reporter was having trouble staying on his feet in winds that were being measured at 80 mph gusting to 110 mph. The exact structure of the eyewalls indicates that Key West may not get much stronger winds now, perhaps 90-120 before slowly decreasing. I think people there are counting on the fact that as a mid-ocean island they will not see a very high storm surge no matter how strong the winds blow, and they don't want to be prevented from returning for over a week if the hurricane cuts the bridges to the mainland. That plus the fact that this is essentially a party town with a non-conformist culture (a young couple were evidently trying to make love in a sheltered spot across the street from the live reporter, a fact which was not brought to the reporter's attention for several minutes as he droned on about how strong the winds were). Anyway, most of the houses in Key West are two-storey and I suppose most of the residents will go to their upstairs rooms if a storm surge sweeps in around two hours from now, we shall see. I don't think the winds will get strong enough to do major damage to the homes there, but a few are likely to be damaged here and there. They seem to have a local belief that they will never be directly hit by a hurricane, so many have gone by and just missed them in terms of a direct eyewall hit.

At Everglades City where the worst of the winds are likely to hit in about 3-4 hours, almost everyone has evacuated. The mayor was telling a reporter that he's about the only person left in town now. Further north at Marco Island which also looks to be seeing major wind damage, people have either evacuated or have congregated in the larger buildings in town.

I'm not seeing much potential for further intensification, the eye presentation on radar is becoming quite ragged and there is too much circulation already over land as of 0730z. If anything, I think the winds at landfall may show a slight decrease from the current reported max of 120 mph. Also the strongest winds may hit unpopulated areas south of Everglades City.

Crimsone, I did have a look at the eye features you were mentioning (much earlier), and sorry, no real explanations come to mind. I think there's a whole unexplored area of research in terms of cycles of cellular rotation around strong hurricanes, wobbles and trochoidal features, etc. These are very complex systems and a lot of the impacts on land depend on some of this complexity as well as the more straightforward track and intensity features.

[crimsone]

a fact which was not brought to the reporter's attention for several minutes as he droned on about how strong the winds were).

:lol:

Thankyou very much for taking a look at those features. It's a shame that there doesn't seem to be a known explanation for them, but such is life. It looked darn impressive anyway, and I'm sure there was something interesting and significant to know about it, even if nobody knows what it was! Such is life

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:55 pm EDT, October 23, 2005

HURRICANE WILMA NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE- LETHAL STORM SURGE TO AFFECT SW FLORIDA WHILE GREAT DEAL OF THE STATE TO BE LASHED HARD BY THIS LATE SEASON HURRICANE

We knew it could happen and it indeed has. Wilma is now a category three hurricane or major hurricane. This means that extensive damage can be expected and this includes a massive storm surge that is advancing towards the coast. Evacuations will hopefully save lives and there is little people can do now in the path of this hurricane but hunker down. Right now I am in Naples, FL and have been back and forth to Everglades City and Marco Island. The weather conditions are quickly deteriorating as the rain comes down harder and harder. The wind is not too bad yet- but the strong winds are coming. Also- a storm surge of 17 feet is possible in some locations near and to the south of where the eye makes landfall. We will certainly hope for the best for people down here- they have been awesome to work with for the last few days.

The weather station is almost working completely. The anemomter failed completely due to an electical issue, but we do have pressure and temp readings as well as a web cam set up at Marco Island. To view the pressure and temp data- along with the live web cam, click the link below. I will try to post a video update here of some of the late evening effects as soon as we can shoot something. Stay tuned- tomrrow morning is going to be quite interesting for south Florida!

Courtesy Hurrican Track

[kold weather]

Indeed trochoidal wobbles were really intresting,I've saved a loop of it actually with Wilma's 2 mile wide eye.

I'm not quite sure if I agree with Roger though about windspeeds,its eye has gotten a tad more ragged prehaps but there are still some good convective bursts in the east now occuring and even recon suggests that the NHC are underplaying the strength of winds,therefore I'd think landfall at 125mph if the NHC get a chance to upgrade its strength again before landfall,which they may not.

Key West getting hammered now with the main rain band in the S.qaudrant hitting hard and gusts still upto hurricane force but the eyewall still looks to the north,wind gusts close to 100mph now there.Sombrero lighthouse off Marathon now has hurricane sustained winds at 79mph and wind gusts now upto 87mph,getting closer to cat-2 gusts now as the eyewall cotniues to get clsoer and closer to the shore,only about another 1hr beofre the eyewall hits land and even the east is now getting winds upto 45-50mph as well.It'll be intresting to see how the eye reacts when it comes ashore,I get the feeling it'll stay intact quite well and may emerge at the higher end of cat-2 simply because of the speed its moving at,now at 20mph.

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

The eye will start brushing land shortly. The full storm surge will come with it (apparently - I thought it would have come earlier.)

Recon...

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/07:47:30Z

B. 25 deg 25 min N

082 deg 35 min W

C. 700 mb 2692 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 067 deg 080 kt

G. 320 deg 020 nm

H. 953 mb

I. 9 C/ 3051 m

J. 14 C/ 3050 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C65

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 2524A WILMA OB 04

MAX FL WIND 80 KT NW QUAD 07:41:20 Z

MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 297 / 11NM

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[crimsone]

Advisory 36...

...WILMA STRONGER AND APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA

KEYS... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE

FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD... AND ALONG THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING LAKE

OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST

COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST

OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.  A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE

WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. THESE WARNINGS

AND WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...

BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND AN INCREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK

THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST

IN A FEW HOURS AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER

TODAY.  HOWEVER THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE

EXPERIENCED WELL BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

DATA RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT

THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  WILMA IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE . NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS

EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.  SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS WILMA

CROSSES THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  90 MILES FROM THE

CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  950 MB...28.05 INCHES. 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE

SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.  STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 5 TO 9 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

AND FLORIDA BAY... AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF FLORIDA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  WESTERN CUBA MAY SEE

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH TODAY.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF

THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTHWARD TODAY.

TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N... 82.4 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EDT AND 9 AM EDT FOLLOWED

BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

Lowest pressure yet - 950.

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

The eyewall should be starting to come ashore now and certainly western Florida is getting a real slap from Wilma's eastern side at the moment.Eye is still about 2 hours away from landfall I'd have thought but its getting closer now,worth watching to see how fast the winds increase in the Miami region,because once the eye comes ashore the strong winds should rapidly increase over SE Florida in the strongest qaudrant,esp once the eye comes ashore as the main rainband arrives from the west probably causing winds to start to get into hurricane force gusts,the eyewall will probably give the region winds into cat-2 strength.

Anyway the latest NHC advisory is saying now that pressur eis dow to 950mbs so still falling and winds upto 125mph,I think this is more likely representation of its strength at the current minute,the eye looks a tad elongated so its probably not any stronger,still alot mor eintense then the borderline cat1/2 some where expecting yesterday morning!

Key West has stopped reporting wind speeds as they have failed apperently,wind gusts now arriving at category-1 in W.Flroida and the eyewall isn't to far of now and so expect the strongwest winds to spill into SW Florida now,probably with winds upto cat-3 but more likely at high cat-2.Se florida I feel will see winds lower but still dangerous and still one of the strongest systems there since Andrew and wil lno doubt cause alot of damage to the area.

Things are about to go downhil lacross the entire state,esp in the west and they will really start to feel the power of hurricane Wilma.

(ps,wind gust in the keys from a storm chaser is as high as 104mph reecntly)

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[Spies]

The weather station is almost working completely. The anemomter failed completely due to an electical issue, but we do have pressure and temp readings as well as a web cam set up at Marco Island. To view the pressure and temp data- along with the live web cam, click the link below. I will try to post a video update here of some of the late evening effects as soon as we can shoot something. Stay tuned- tomrrow morning is going to be quite interesting for south Florida!

Courtesy Hurrican Track

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It would be interesting to see this webcam or others to see the storm coming.

[kold weather]

Looks like the eye is just about to make landfall S of Naples,the whole of the eastern eyewall is over land and heading eastwards,still looking pretty good at the moment.Highest gust I've seen so far is 108mph,the south-east eyewall should have the strongest wind gusts,probably agood 20mph higher then what is being reported right now,eye is going to come ashore very soon,just south of Naples in the next 10 minutes,the whole eye is still probably about 2hrs away from completely pushing overland but the very first bit of the eye is just about over land now.

(ps,its abit quiet here isn't it???)

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

RECON...

URNT12 KNHC 240946

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 24/09:32:30Z

B. 25 deg 43 min N

082 deg 04 min W

C. 700 mb 2667 m

D. NA kt

E. deg nm

F. 045 deg 084 kt

G. 296 deg 019 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 10 C/ 3051 m

J. 16 C/ 3047 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C60

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 2524A WILMA OB 15

MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 08:28:30 Z

MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 283 / 12NM

SUPPLEMENTARY RECON...

INBOUND

LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff

01248 10815 13882 11010 21107

02250 20817 23800 20909 21115

03251 30819 33705 31514 21063

04253 40821 43678 41412 20021

MF250 M0818 MF123

OBS 01 AT 08:22:40Z

OBS 04 AT 08:35:10Z

OBS 01 SFC WND /////

OUTBOUND

LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff

01257 10821 13702 11313 16033

02259 20819 23753 20808 14093

MF258 M0820 MF104

OBS 01 AT 08:44:10Z

OBS 02 AT 08:48:10Z

OBS 02 SFC WND /////

AF302 2524A WILMA OB 13

how to read the supplementary, should anybody want to.

(PS, VERY quiet all things considered! lol)

I so wish that the Marco Island webcam was still running! The eye is jaus about to pass over Maro, and it would be a hell of a thing to see live over the web!

Edited October 24, 2005 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Yeah I wish that was the case as well crimsone,it would have been great to see such a large eye.

Anyway eye is now crossing over land although it hasn't made offical landfall and won't for the next 30 minutes until the actual center of the eye cross land which is gonig to happen soon enough,eastern eyewall battering W.Florida at the moment,eastern florida recieving the main rain band now as well with sustained winds now at TS force.The strongest gust is currently at 123mph which is pretty impressive and is on one of the key islands,so very impressive gust and the winds may infact be a little higher closer to the eye,those strong gusts are heading eastwards now with the eyewall heading north-eastwards so expect SE Florida to start getting hurricane force gusts within the next 2hrs.

Storm surge still hasn't occured yet in the main,expected storm surge is anything between 9-18ft I believe,with the area to the south of the eye getting the main surge as winds swing round to the west on th esouthern side of the eye.The keys will also start to see this soon as the eye passes to the north of them and winds swing round to a westerly funneling the water into a surge about 5-8ft high in the keys.Tornaodes are also still a very real risk at present with the ingrediants present for alot of tornadoes and strong ones as well.Rain is also very intense at the moment arond the eyewalls and they have a giood structure,still with this system moving so fast flooding should hopefully not be ay problem for Florida,although they do have the other thre emajor dangers:

1:Tornadoes

2:Storm surge

3:Hurricane force winds

Edited October 24, 2005 by kold weather

[crimsone]

OK guys, as much as I really want to watch the rest of this, I'm having trouble staying awake after staying up all night posting updates on this thread.

Soo, no more updates from me (someone else will have to past up the advisories and vortex data, and A merry goodnight (well, hopefully I'll wake to se the exit of the system.

Just one last comment...

The storm seems to be drawing in Dry air from the bottom - the worst thing for the health of a hurricane. If it doesn't seal itself up quickly it could potentially weaken quickly.

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 5:00 AM EDT, October 24, 2005

POWERFUL WILMA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN COLLIER COUNTY AS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BRACES FOR A HECK OF A DAY

I will keep this brief. Wilma is now a 120 mph category three hurricane with a presure of 952 millibars. It is going to make landfall in just a few hours in Collier County. The eye is large and many people will experience the calm. We have seen moderate damage here mainly to vegetation and local storm surge flooding. Highest wind gust I have recorded was 98 mph on the Marco Island bridge about 25 minutes ago. The pressure here is 976 millibars. Check out the video clip below taken just an hour ago on Marco Island. I will try to have more later in the day.

Courtesy Hurrican Track

And damn just discovered the Brooks cam is no longer working - it was about an hour ago but then I don't suppose the thing stood a chance being that close to the sea front.