Wilma Watching

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 10:25 pm EDT, October 22, 2005

HURRICANE WILMA STARTING TO MAKE ITS MOVE AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN COAST

Satellite imagery suggests that the center of Wilma is beginning to slowly move away from the Yucatan and toward the southwest Florida coast. The Hurricane Center is expecting some restrengthening as the center gets fully over the warm water of the Gulf of Mexico loop current overnight. Preparations are underway here in Naples, businesses are boarded up but open for now, but things will change tomorrow as the outer bands from the hurricane are expected increase in frequency and intensity. Please check the link below to the NWS for local hurricane information. It is very useful in determining what impacts might take affect you in your local community.

The intensity forecast shows a category two hurricane at landfall, but it is unknown exactly how strong Wilma will get before arriving someplace on the Florida coast. We should learn quite a bit in overnight hours once Wilma begins a more clear and distinct move.

Also- we are tracking historic tropical storm Alpha which is expected to make landfall along Hispaniola and then dissipate over the southwest Atlantic. Alpha could bring lethal flooding rains to portions of Hispaniola but should not affect any other land areas.

Courtesy Hurricane Track

[Mondy]

At last!! Online live feed

Took me bloody ages to find

[Kain]

I know its a little off topic, but I was wondering

Hypothetically, what comes after "Omega?" in the names race?

Kain

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'cold front' thats supposed to give some steering to Wilmer is even more buckled this a.m. Am I right in thinking that in the U.K. when athere is a retro movement on a front we show a warm front in the direction of movement? Also don't we tend to get L.P.'s forming where the cold front/warm front touch??

EDIT: am I thinking about a wave feature??

Edited October 23, 2005 by Gray-Wolf

[summer blizzard]

Gray-Wolf, what do you mean when you say that the cold front is buckled, do you mean that the cold front is stalling????????????????????

It looks like there is some bad news for Florida, because Hurricane Wilma is forecast to have sustained winds of 90 knots at around 15:00 today and already has sustained windspeeds of 91 knots at 07:19, because of this, i feel that the National Hurricane Center is underestimating the strength of Hurricane Wilma by around 10 knots, here is my forecast strength...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2

12HR VT 23/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - category 3

24HR VT 24/0000Z - 110 KT - 125mph - category 3

36HR VT 24/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - categry 3 - INLAND

48HR VT 25/0000Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2 - OVER WATER

72HR VT 26/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

96HR VT 27/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

120HR VT 28/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

[Bilz]

Gray-Wolf, what do you mean when you say that the cold front is buckled, do you mean that the cold front is stalling????????????????????

It looks like there is some bad news for Florida, because Hurricane Wilma is forecast to have sustained winds of 90 knots at around 15:00 today and already has sustained windspeeds of 91 knots at 07:19, because of this, i feel that the National Hurricane Center is underestimating the strength of Hurricane Wilma by around 10 knots, here is my forecast strength...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      23/0300Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2

12HR VT    23/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - category 3

24HR VT    24/0000Z - 110 KT - 125mph - category 3

36HR VT    24/1200Z - 100 KT - 115mph - categry 3 - INLAND

48HR VT    25/0000Z - 85 KT - 100mph - category 2 - OVER WATER

72HR VT    26/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

96HR VT    27/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

120HR VT    28/0000Z - 65 KT - 75mph - category 1

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, unless the wind chart has recently been updated, it looks as though you're overestimating. Wilma will only make landfall as a category 1/2, with winds somewhere between 90 and 100mph. No big deal.

Edited October 23, 2005 by Bilz

[SxK]

Actually, unless the wind chart has recently been updated, it looks as though you're overestimating. Wilma will only make landfall as a category 1/2, with winds somewhere between 90 and 100mph. No big deal.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

NHC are forecasting 100knot winds at Landfall which equates to 115mph - Cat 3.

It would be comparable in strength to Hurricane Frances which hit Florida last year

[Mondy]

The 06z GFDL still has Wilma grabbing Alpha, merging together, and by the looks of it giving New York and surrounding counties a bit of a soaking..

The GFDL has played this motion consistently over 24 hrs now

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi...&hour=Animation

[summer blizzard]

The data which i have posted is my forecast, not the National Hurricane Centers, while they are forecasting a weak category 3 or strong category 2 and then turning Hurricane Wilma into a extratropical Storm, i am forecasting a moderate category 3 and for Hurricane Wilma to not go extratropical.

[Mondy]

Tbh, looks like it's falling apart! The cold front is playing with it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

(click on NWS fronts)

[SnowBear]

So difficult to judge what Wilma will do now, as we have seen before, 24 hours later and we could have a rain event if the cold front barges through, or we could have an intense Cat 3 again once Wilma is over the warm water loop. On the IR there is a heck of a lot of red in the N/NE of Wilma over that warm loop, which will wrap back round towards the eye....that is if the wind sheer doesnt take care of it.

A sit, wait and see for a few hours I think..fine line between the options.

[SnowBear]

000

URNT12 KNHC 231121

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 23/11:06:30Z

B. 22 deg 20 min N

086 deg 16 min W

C. 700 mb 2761 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg nm

F. 023 deg 068 kt

G. 315 deg 093 nm

H. 961 mb

I. 10 C/ 3044 m

J. 14 C/ 3048 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C65

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2024A WILMA OB 32

MAX FL WIND 91 KT S QUAD 07:19:10 Z

REMNENT INNER EYE 25% COVERAGE SSE OF FL CENTER.

[crimsone]

LMAO!!!

from the CNN news site...

[crimsone]

By Laura Myers

KEY WEST, Fla., Oct. 22 (Reuters) - Instead of fleeing, many hurricane-fatigued residents of the Florida Keys on Saturday went on an "Evacuation Pub Crawl." Instead of boarding up homes, others hammered away at "Fantasy Fest" floats.

The authorities in the low-lying and vulnerable Florida Keys urged people to take Hurricane Wilma seriously as the storm, at one point the fiercest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic, pounded Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and appeared likely to set a course for Florida.

But, after days and days of waiting for Wilma, many in the town of Key West at the southernmost tip of the United States seemed to be ignoring the advice or waiting to find out more definitively how close the storm would come.

"We'll stop anywhere they'll let us in," said drag queen bar co-owner Jim Gilleran, handing out beads as costumed revelers gathered at the Hog's Breath Saloon to march up Duval Street and hoist a few cocktails.

Gilleran also handed out copies of an "Hurricane Wilma Evacuate Song," with the words "Evacuate, Evacuate. It Ain't Time to Procrastinate!"

Restaurateur Amy Culver-Aversa said the pub crawl would "alleviate some of the tension. We're super-prepared and we know the drill."

MANDATORY ORDER

At one stop along the way, bar and strip club owner Mark Rossi, a city commissioner, estimated only a quarter of the town's 26,000 residents had evacuated by mid-Saturday, when a mandatory evacuation order went into force.

"A lot of people don't have the money to leave. If you leave Key West, it's at least $250 a day. My people are the working people," he said.

Across town, friends David Hutchinson, a boat captain, and David Richard, owner of an adventure outfitting company, hammered away at a float for Key West's annual Fantasy Fest. The 10-day extravaganza is slated to kick off on Tuesday as a Wilma-delayed five-day celebration.

"We decided it was our duty as citizens to carry on," said Hutchinson.

The authorities say they are ready for Wilma.

Newly-elected Mayor Morgan McPherson offered advice for those opting to stay.

"Batten down the hatches and be prepared. All I can say is, 'Good luck,'" he said.

Max Mayfield, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami, said the center's best guess was that Wilma would come ashore on Monday on Florida's southwest Gulf Coast, well to the north of Key West.

But he cautioned that Wilma could be stronger than expected, and would also affect a very large area.

"I can assure you that a strong Category 2, a possible Category 3, will have a major impact on our state of Florida," Mayfield said, referring to the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale used to measure hurricane intensity.

AlertNet news is provided by Reuters

[pinball wizard]

Well this certainly has been a drawn out affair, can understand why some floridian folk are starting to not take heed of warnings etc. Just hope it doesnt mean people end up getting unneseccarily injured or worse.

GFS has backtracked a bit with regards to storm over the uk next weekend, Im not sure whether this storm due to affect uk next weekend was wilmas remnants or not .

[Hurricane Debby]

UPDATED: 9:30 AM EDT, October 23, 2005

GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS AS WILMA BEGINS TO MOVE FASTER TOWARDS FLORIDA

There is some good news this morning and that is that Wilma has not intensified yet. The hurricane is struggling to regain its inner core and the clouds are being stretched out as the shear develops ahead of it. The NHC forecasts some additional strengthening but not to a category three as earlier indicated. The bad news is that Wilma is and will continue to be a large hurricane and its effects will be felt over a very large area. Many people are going to be without power when this is all said and done. Watches and warnings have been posted for a great deal of Florida in anticipation of Wilma's landfall tomorrow. As it stands now, Wilma should be on the coast around sunrise and it will quickly move across the peninsula and in to the Atlantic. Conditions later today will go downhill rapidly along the Keys and the SW coast of Florida. I hope everyone is ready- this is it. By tomorrow night, it will all be over.

As far as tropical storm Alpha- it is only a concern to Hispaniola as the possibility of another round of life-threatening floods and mudslides exists. Otherwise, Alpha is expected to dissipate fairly soon and not be an an issue beyond Hispaniola.

[Thundersquall]

Is Hurricane Wilma strengthening again, as she moves across the warm Gulf of Mexico, on her way to southern Florida?

Which area in southern Florida looks most likely to receive the direct hit (i.e. the area where the eye crosses the coast)?

[crimsone]

Is Hurricane Wilma strengthening again, as she moves across the warm Gulf of Mexico, on her way to southern Florida?

Which area in southern Florida looks most likely to receive the direct hit (i.e. the area where the eye crosses the coast)?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

not according to the last advisory. current advisory gives pressure as 961. The next full advisory is due in a few minutes, and so we'll find out what the difference is then.

[crimsone]

advisory 33....

...WILMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER WARM GULF WATERS...COULD

INTENSIFY TODAY OR TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA

KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...ALONG THE

FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM TITUSVILLE SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE

OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST

COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER...AND ALONG THE

FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF

FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL

HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE

YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SAN FELIPE TO TULUM...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND

THE NEARBY ISLANDS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM WEST OF SAN

FELIPE TO PROGRESO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF

CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...AND PINAR DEL RIO.  A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE

WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN

BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...

BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 285

MILES... 460 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA... OR ABOUT

340 MILES... 545 KM... SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A

GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  WILMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  70 MILES...110 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  961 MB...28.38 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 8 TO 13 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS

POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST NEAR AND TO THE

SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL.  STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS

AND FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL AS IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  STORM SURGE

FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN

COAST OF FLORIDA.  STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA

AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WILMA MOVES

AWAY.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10

TO 15 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND 2 TO

4 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITH ISOLATED

MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 50 INCHES.  RAINFALL ACROSS

SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO

BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES

POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN

FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...22.7 N... 85.8 W.  MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR  8 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 961 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM

CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

$$

Pressure is still given at 961mb - windspeed remains the same at 100 MpH - wind span remains the same.

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Edited

Edited October 23, 2005 by Mondy

[crimsone]

Edited 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

he he - beat ya too it Mondy!

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Thundersquall]

Edited 

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's must be a little worrying for the residents of southern Florida to hear Hurricane Wilma may intensify a little, especially considering a few days ago it's central pressure dropped by 70 millibars in nine hours and the winds increased from 100 mph to 175 mph!

It probably won't intensify that much, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Wilma is back up to Category 3, perhaps a marginal Category 4, by the time she reaches Florida.

[crimsone]

Any potential instensification may be offset by the increasing shear as it move towards Florida. It may well manage Cat three if the EWR it started 48 hours ago get's finished sometime soon, but I doubt it'll make it to Cat 4 again.

That said, stranger things have happened, and they've happened to Wilma, so I'm not placing any bets on it. lol

Edited October 23, 2005 by crimsone

[Mondy]

Will she flush the eye out in time though?

[Roger J Smith]

Latest predictions based on 12z regional model runs ... Wilma remains borderline 2/3 as it accelerates later today, eyewall near or over Key West FL at 03z which is 11 pm EDT local time, winds at Key West may reach 100 mph gusting 130, 11-15 ft storm surge possible, then landfall near Naples FL as cat-2 at about 10z which is 6 am EDT Monday. Very strong winds will rapidly develop over the Miami area late tonight as the circulation does a redevelopment across south FL, so cat-1 hurricane conditions likely to develop all over south FL about sunrise Monday lasting much of the morning and early afternoon. The actual centre will re-emerge into Atlantic between Palm Beach and Vero Beach FL as a marginal cat-1 hurricane at that point, then some redevelopment offshore.

The hurricane will then accelerate further and rush northeast to merge with a developing east coast storm developing near Long Island NY. Wilma may remain a cat-1 or 2 hurricane for much of Tuesday but the merged storm will become extratropical by Tuesday 15z, bringing very strong E-NE winds to MA, RI and CT, LI areas, with very heavy rainfalls. The storm will then slam into Nova Scotia late Tuesday bringing winds of 100-120 km/hr and heavy rainfalls there. There will be slight weakening through Wednesday as the centre crosses the island of Newfoundland, winds of 80-100 km/hr likely there.