Wilma Watching

[Thundersquall]

see the other thread on next weekend and also have a look at the 06Z GFS T+180 and subsequent. Yes she will 'hit' the UK, details will change as we get nearer but she is going to be here next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.html

is from the 06Z run; for Saturday 18Z

regards

John

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If this charts comes off, looks like it could turn quite nasty next weekend! Nothing like what Hurricane Wilma is doing at the moment, of course, but very wild nonetheless.

[Mondy]

Florida Keys discussion:

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL

556 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...

CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONCH REPUBLIC ARE STEADY IN THE

LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. SKIES ARE OVERCAST WITH

A CANOPY OF THICK CIRRUS. LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING ON

AND OFF OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS...WITH A FEW HEAVIER

SHOWERS OFFSHORE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEAN CELL MOTION IS

NOW FROM 160/23KT. THE KEY WEST SPECIAL 06Z SOUNDING REVEALED A VERY

MOIST BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL BULK WIND SHEAR HAS

INCREASED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH 0-1KM BULK SHEAR UP TO

22KT. MID-LEVEL...700-500MB...WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL < 20KT.

MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE PREVAILED AT MOST ISLAND AND REEF

LOCATIONS...AVERAGING 15KT OR LESS EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A

FRIDAY EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS INDICATE WINDS

AT LEAST 15-20KT OVER WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE

BRIDGE...ESPECIALLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS. A SHIP

REPORTING AT 06Z SOUTHEAST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ALSO REPORTED A

SOUTHWEST SWELL...SUGGESTING THAT SWELL TRAINS FROM HURRICANE WILMA

HAVE EITHER PROPAGATED INTO GMZ075...OR AT LEAST REFRACTED NORTHEAST

OFF THE CUBAN COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS

EXCEED 7FT OVER A PORTION OF GMZ075. HOWEVER...LITTLE OBSERVATIONAL

OR NUMERICAL MODEL EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT ISSUANCE OF A SMALL

CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

AT 500 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WILMA WAS

LOCATED AT 20.9N/87.2W...OR ABOUT 430 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLD TOWN

KEY WEST. THE HURRICANE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN

YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN COZUMEL AND CANCUN.

ON THE LARGE SCALE...GOES-12 MOISTURE CHANNEL LOOPS SHOW THE

WESTERLIES AMPLIFYING...WITH NUMEROUS LARGE-SCALE BAROCLINIC EDDIES

DEVELOPING AND EVOLVING OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN MIDLATITUDES.

HURRICANE WILMA REMAINS DRIFTING IN A DEEP-LAYER COL REGION OVER THE

NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES TO

THE EAST AND WEST...AND THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.

.FORECASTS...

HURRICANE WILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...TO

EMERGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND THEN TO

ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND

SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE

CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS FROM

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HURRICANE WILMA WILL BE

TRANSFORMING FROM A WARM-CORE SYSTEM TO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM DURING

ITS TRAVERSE OF THE SERVICE AREA...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONG

AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL USHER IN THE COOLEST AND DRIEST AIR

MASS TO BE OBSERVED IN THE KEYS SINCE APRIL.

.TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND PROBABILITIES...

BASED ON THE 09Z OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST...THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL

STORM FORCE WINDS 34KT OR GREATER THROUGH MONDAY IS NOW NEAR 70

PERCENT. THE PROBABILITY OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF

50KT OR GREATER IS NOW 30 TO 40 PERCENT...AND THE PROBABILITY OF

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 64KT OR GREATER IS NOW 10 TO 20 PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TONIGHT. SUSTAINED 10-M

WINDS WILL LIKELY EXCEED 20KT BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING

THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO ALL

WATERCRAFT BY LATE SUNDAY...AS HURRICANE WILMA BEGINS TO ACCELERATE

NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SERVICE AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS

POSSIBLE. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS

LATER THIS MORNING.

[Snow Queen one]

That's terrible Mondy i do hope everybody is rescued and will be safe.

[Thundersquall]

I was reading our local 'Metro' paper yesterday - it had a full front page about the recent earthquake devastation in Pakistan, but absolutely nothing, not even one column inch, about Hurricane Wilma.

Although it hadn't quite reached land, surely even yesterday this 'extremely dangerous' hurricane was worth reporting on?

As it nears Florida over the next couple of days, I'll bet the stories will come flooding in!

And our papers will be full to bursting, I expect, about the storm if it hits the UK next weekend.

[Mondy]

I expect, about the storm if it hits the UK next weekend.

Just off the other thread about next weekends possible storm - if true it's gonna be ferocious!

[PersianPaladin]

Just off the other thread about next weekends possible storm - if true it's gonna be ferocious!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

No it won't.

:lol:

[kold weather]

Looks like Wilma doesn't want to spend that much time on land,its mighty close to the shore again and the eyewalls are still intact and apart from prehaps the NW qaudrant are good looking.It wouldn't take much of a north-eastern wobble to get half of the eye back over water.Cloud tops have warmed alot but thats not suprising conisdering its been over land now for a few hours.The eye has been completely covered by cloud now but the shape is still there.It may well be the case that Wilma is off land by this eveing.It's sturcture is pretty impressive still and its keeping its eyewlal quite well for the moment and its still got a tight circluation but it is weakening and is defiantly on the way to becoming a cat-2 at present.

Cancun has recently gotten a taste of the NE quadrant and is probably getting sustained strong cat-3 and gusts still upto 155mph I rekcon a guess.The island of Cozumel after having a break is now back in the south-eastern eyewall and probably getting thumped again as its probably the strongest part of the eyewall in terms of convection thanks to still being over water.

Edited October 22, 2005 by kold weather

[Brrr]

Just off the other thread about next weekends possible storm - if true it's gonna be ferocious!

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Well that's the end of my summer flowers then!. I can't believe the way my annual plants have lasted this year all the way nearly into November... my Mom was telling me she's had a crocus appear! :lol:

Wilma surely will be fairly low key by the time it reaches us though (if it doesn't miss of course)?

(GW regarding your comment on the wakeup call for US and Global Warming - I think it wouldn't make a jot of difference if it hit to the view - it would just be offically declared as part of a 'natural cycle' albeit an unfortunate cycle! )

EDIT: KW is there any chance she could considerably strenghthen at all once off land?

Edited October 22, 2005 by Brrr

[kold weather]

It'll probably get a little stronger again once it gets off-shore but it'll need to sort its inner core out again somewhat which could take about 12-18hrs to do so,after that then it certainly has the chance at least in the short term to get its act on again and get stronger,how strong is hard to tell but certainly despite the NHC thinking it could be a cat-2 by that time,it could just as easily be a cat-3 by then.

after 36-48hrs roughly there should be enough shear induced onto the system to stop it getting any strong and may infact weakening it a little but as is normal its very hard totell the timing of these things as they are in the hands of the weather-gods!!

(ps looks like it'll be off-shore soon,currently drifting N with winds at 120mph,so close to being downgraded to a strong 2,expect it to do so before reahcing the waters but definatly not a 1 I'd have thought,so a steady weakening before a steading over water and getting stronger again over the gulf)

Edited October 22, 2005 by kold weather

[PersianPaladin]

It'll probably get a little stronger again once it gets off-shore but it'll need to sort its inner core out again somewhat which could take about 12-18hrs to do so,after that then it certainly has the chance at least in the short term to get its act on again and get stronger,how strong is hard to tell but certainly despite the NHC thinking it could be a cat-2 by that time,it could just as easily be a cat-3 by then.

after 36-48hrs roughly there should be enough shear induced onto the system to stop it getting any strong and may infact weakening it a little but as is normal its very hard totell the timing of these things as they are in the hands of the weather-gods!!

(ps looks like it'll be off-shore soon,currently drifting N with winds at 120mph,so close to being downgraded to a strong 2,expect it to do so before reahcing the waters but definatly not a 1 I'd have thought,so a steady weakening before a steading over water and getting stronger again over the gulf)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Yeah...it is yet to move over another warm loop current. So it should strengthen to a strong Cat 3 by the time the eyewall is 80 miles off the south-coast of Florida.

[SnowBear]

Hiya Folks

Looks like our guy in Cancun on http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

hasnt reported for some hours, last report was 2.15am local, its now 7.20am, he was making an entry every 1-2 hours, which doesnt bode well as he was in a building which was built to the latest standards, it may be just because of no power, but, if they have had waves up to 8m high, which I can quite beleive they will have, the sea will have been a fair way up the building you saw in those pics earlier in the thread !!!

I personally think this hit at a low Cat5, but, it makes no odds really, that storm surge has had days to build and I wouldnt be surprised if the record for storm surge was broken last night.

I have been scouting around for info, found this link posted elsewhere,

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/productos/emas/txt/QR01_10M.TXT

Just before the station went down, a sustained report of 175.70km/h (109mph) and a gust of 219.80km/h (136mph)

I aint so sure on the precipitation column....if I add up those totals I get over 5m of rain in 12 hours!!...so I think that part might have been damaged or malfunctioning, a rain rate of 1500mm for the last hour seems a bit OTT...//.this has actually got me digging into records....the Guinness Book of Records says..

Most Intense Rainfall

There are difficulties in reading rainfall for very short periods, but the figure of 38.1 mm (1.8 in) in one minute at Basse Terre, Guadeloupe, in the Caribbean on November 26, 1970, is regarded as the most intense recorded by modern methods.

.....so the above is not impossible!!!!!

I am dreading the reports to come on this one.

Edited October 22, 2005 by SnowBear

[Brrr]

Thanks KW - (and PP).... it's still one to watch then!,

I was starting to think it was going to be a rather glum rainy day affair once it reached Florida (not that I'm wishing for bad on them, but from a weather point of view you understand).

We should be getting A lot more info very soon from the media once it start to track to Florida then!.

EDIT: Hi SnowBear... let's hope that he's ok...though you do need electricity for a good while to do what he was doing I guess.. so perhaps that's all it is.

Edited October 22, 2005 by Brrr

[Brrr]

99L is looking very organised down there on the right hand corner!!! Is this getting a bit more organised now?

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[crimsone]

Looks like our guy in Cancun on http://stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

hasnt reported for some hours, last report was 2.15am local, its now 7.20am, he was making an entry every 1-2 hours, which doesnt bode well as he was in a building which was built to the latest standards, it may be just because of no power, but, if they have had waves up to 8m high, which I can quite beleive they will have, the sea will have been a fair way up the building you saw in those pics earlier in the thread !!!

I hate to say this, but I fear the worst for him.

First the roof of his balcony caved in, then he's talking about no visibility, and the worst hadn't hit him yet. His last entry says he was fearful of his patio doors caving in and could hear squealing coming from between them - that's obviously a pressure differential, which suggests that the air was being sucked out from behind the hurricane shutters.

If he's still with us, he must think he's in hell by now.

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[matmilne]

prepare for the rain remnants of wilma this week. the outflow is being wound around the big low over northern canada which is due to crawl its way over here this week.

[crimsone]

99L is looking very organised down there on the right hand corner!!! Is this getting a bit more organised now?

yes, conditions are becoming more favourable for development - see the "waiting on Alpha" thread.

Edited October 22, 2005 by crimsone

[Brrr]

yes, conditions are becoming more favourable for development.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Amazing really....another one so hot on the heels of Wilma...

(By the way, perhaps that fellow in Cancu realised it was time to move out or hunker down to a more secure place?....it's a little crazy to do what he was doing though - still hope he's ok)

EDIT: (whoops... I forgot about the Alpha thread.. I'll go and look!)

Edited October 22, 2005 by Brrr

[conor123]

Is it down to a category 2 now :lol:

Where's the eye gone

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Gray-Wolf]

I just thought ........were she placed at around 90w she'd be about the size/ position of the impact crater that did for the dinosaurs!!!

[crimsone]

Where's everybody gone? do people think it's all over? lol

28A - 2 hours ago...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/221200.shtml

[Mondy]

PLAYA DEL CARMEN, Mexico, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Hurricane Wilma relentlessly pounded Mexico's Caribbean coast on Saturday, destroying homes and flooding beach resorts as it meandered slowly over the Yucatan peninsula.

Winds of 120 miles an hour (195 kph) knocked over houses, upturned trees and kept thousands of tourists in cramped shelters.

The storm lost a bit of its punch -- it was downgraded to a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale -- but its winds and rains were still powerful enough to cause massive damage and threaten lives. Emergency forces reported no deaths so far.

Metal sheets flew off the roofs of homes in the beach resort of Playa del Carmen and spun dangerously through the streets.

"It's a monster. It is roaring all the time," said Guadalupe Torroella in the low-lying resort of Cancun, where the sea rushed onto the land and flooded international hotels.

At least five flimsy homes had collapsed in Mexico's Playa del Carmen but their residents were among the tens of thousands who had already fled to damp shelters.

Wilma was still dumping torrential rain over a wide chunk of the Yucatan peninsula whose resorts are famous for turquoise seas and white sand. It was just 9 miles (15 km) from Cancun early Saturday and was drifting northward.

The stalled storm has battered Playa del Carmen, Cancun and diving center Cozumel for the past 36 hours and was due to hang over the area until at least Saturday night.

Wilma dumped 23 inches (59 cm) of rain on Friday on Isla Mujeres island, an unprecedented downpour for Mexico.

"We are talking about a record hurricane as far as rain is concerned," said meteorologist Alberto Hernandez Unzon. He said Wilma was unusually big with a diameter of 500 miles (800 km).

The town hall was littered with debris with windows blown out and furniture tossed onto office floors. Five prisoners escaped from a nearby jail into the jungle after a fence blew down.

In one hotel doubling as a shelter where there has been no electricity or running water for two days, Scott Whitcher, 38, stood on his balcony and bathed in the pouring rain.

"We are very fortunate to be in here. We were in a palm hut. I bet there is nothing left. I cannot wait for this to be over," said the San Francisco resident.

All along Mexico's "Maya Riviera," thousands of stranded tourists huddled nervously in dank, sweaty gymnasiums and schools as the flimsy wooden beach cabins where many had been staying took a battering.

"When the boards blew off our window we decided to look outside and -- oh my God," said Gloria Winkles, a tourist from Texas sheltering in a small hotel in from the coast and looking out at raging waters in which a blue jeep lay half submerged.

CUBA ALSO HIT, FLORIDA NEXT?

Mudslides caused by rains from Wilma killed 10 people in Haiti earlier this week and Cuba was reeling as the storm drenched the west of the island and unleashed tornadoes.

Cuba evacuated 368,000 people from low-lying areas as it braced for coastal storm surges and floods.

Wilma was expected to head off into the Gulf of Mexico once it has finished battering Yucatan and could hit heavily populated southern Florida as early as Sunday.

While forecasters expect it to weaken by that time, authorities in the Florida Keys ordered the mandatory evacuation of the islands 80,000 residents from noon on Saturday. Tourists had already been evacuated.

Wilma was expected to miss Gulf of Mexico oil and gas facilities but Florida's orange groves were at risk.

Wilma briefly reached record strength out at sea on Wednesday but has since lost some steam.

This hurricane season has spawned three of the most intense storms on record. Experts say the Atlantic has entered a period of heightened storm activity that could last 20 more years.

(Additional reporting by Noel Randewich in Cancun, Anthony Boadle in Cuba)

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N2260080.htm

[Mondy]

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 29

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...CENTER WILMA STILL INLAND OVER YUCATAN AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD...

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF

THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE

FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA

PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM

WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA

HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF

YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE

PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE

ISLE OF YOUTH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST

OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF

KEY WEST FLORIDA.

WILMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD... AND A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION

IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK... THE CORE OF WILMA WILL CONTINUE

TO SEVERELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN

PENINSULA ALL DAY TODAY... AND THEN EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA

INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 115 MPH...

185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY THREE

HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING

IS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE WILMA IS OVER LAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... WILL

CONTINUE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EYE ALONG ON THE NORTHEASTERN

YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH

SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 50 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACROSS

SOUTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE KEYS THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO

BE 4 TO 8 INCHES... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES

POSSIBLE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA HAVE PROPAGATED WELL INTO THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS

OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...21.3 N... 87.0 W. MOVEMENT...

DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM

CENTRAL PRESSURE... 946 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM

CDT.

FORECASTER KNABB

11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO. WHILE

IT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT

ON CANCUN RADAR. AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL

POSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA

TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO

THREE DAYS. AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL

GO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE

OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE

TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE

MODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL

FORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK

FORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING.

WILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND

OVER YUCATAN TODAY. HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR

IT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF

MEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH

INCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES

FLORIDA. THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS

QUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A

CATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL. THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO

EXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A

LARGE AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN

ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A

HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 21.3N 87.0W 100 KT

12HR VT 23/0000Z 21.7N 87.0W 95 KT

24HR VT 23/1200Z 22.5N 86.5W 100 KT

36HR VT 24/0000Z 23.8N 84.8W 100 KT

48HR VT 24/1200Z 25.6N 82.2W 90 KT

72HR VT 25/1200Z 33.5N 72.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 26/1200Z 42.0N 60.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 27/1200Z 47.5N 47.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

Edited October 22, 2005 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

Another couple of hours and ,hopefully, Wilma's centre will be back over the Gulf. Another couple of hours from this and maybe we'll see what kinda shape her Yukatan 'scrape' has left her in (I think Cancum has probably seen enough of her now!!).

[Mondy]

After Wilma crosses Florida, she really does speed along at fair rate of knots..

Swath Chart

[Mondy]

From cancun travel online site

"The first point of impact in Quintana Roo and for that matter Mexico was the Island Of Cozumel located off the coast of Quintana Roo near the resort destination of Playa Del Carmen. "Wilma" came across Cozumel as a Category 4 Hurricane causing massive devestation according to preliminary information I am receiving"

"The Civil Protection from Quintana Roo is reporting that the winds took down and caused severe damage to houses and businesses including those that had protection and re-inforcement against Hurricanes ."

Additionally Signs, posts, electrical poles were blown away and some vehicles were overturned and swept away as well.

The Principal streets and avenues are flooded with waters of 4 to 5 feet and there are dozens of boats with damage. There was also a that washed almost a mile of highway into the ocean on the "backend of the Island"

As of right now officials in Cozumel have not reported any serious injuries nor deaths.