BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

April remains unsettled to the end but expect a brighter start to May.

April's variability is well-known and this month's range of weather has definitely lived up to this expectation. Temperatures recently exceeded 20C across a good part of East Anglia, the east Midlands and the southeast of England and yet this glorious spell of weather was so short-lived as to leave no lasting good impression of the month.

The Easter holidays were marked by a very changeable weather pattern and so the month will have made few friends there.

The notion that the month should be marked by a seemingly endless supply of showers is not that well-founded when the statistics are analysed. It can often be one of the drier months of the year. What probably helps to create the impression is that the number of showers increases rapidly by comparison with the preceding months.

Average daytime temperatures across southern England and south Wales show a pleasing, rising trend towards the mid-teens during the first week in May whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland could hit 12-13C. Night frosts are not unknown in early May but gardeners can usually sleep a little easier by this stage of the year.

Monday 28th April 2008 to Sunday 4th May 2008

“Low pressure dominant until the weekend”

A small area of low pressure will keep the north of Scotland pretty wet for the first couple of days of the week. The rest of the British Isles start the week on a showery theme followed by more rain across all parts by midweek.

The area of low pressure will continue to dominate bringing showers or longer spells of rain to all areas, with fresh to strong, south to southwesterly winds being an additional feature across the north and west of the British Isles. It is only towards the weekend that low pressure will show signs of relinquishing its grip.

Temperatures will be around the seasonal average. There really is very little prospect of matching the eye-catching values of recent days.

Monday 5th May 2008 to Sunday 11th May 2008

"Drier and brighter prospects"

Low pressure will drift away to the northwest of the British Isles, allowing a slight recovery. This in turn will lead to a drier look to the weather from Northern Ireland and southwest Scotland, where showers are likely to give near average rainfall amounts.

Westerly winds will keep temperatures close to the seasonal average across the north of the British Isles. Further south, temperatures should climb above the seasonal norm, with East Anglia enjoying some particularly warm weather. Sunshine amounts in this warmer area will be above average too.

Monday 12th May 2008 to Sunday 25th May 2008

“More warm and dry weather for southern Britain.”

It looks as though eastern parts of both Scotland and England will be warmer than average with a good deal of dry weather expected across East Anglia, the Midlands and southeast England.

Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northwest England may be wetter thanks to spells of showery activity.

What will the forecast bring as we head into June? Find out more next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Very warm and mainly dry at first. A little cooler and more unsettled later.

During April, mean temperatures were close to average across the whole of the United Kingdom. Having said this, it appears that England and Wales had their coldest April since 2001. Rainfall was above average and indeed well above average across eastern Scotland and parts of north-eastern England.

This differed from the April of 2007, which was notable for its prolonged dry spells. The odd warmer day did occur this year with Weybourne in Norfolk recording 22C on 26th April.

In contrast, an area of sleet and snow moved across the Midlands and south-east England on 6th April, leaving 5-10cms of lying snow in its wake and closing Heathrow airport for a short time.

Monday 5th May 2008 to Sunday 11th May 2008

“High pressure set to dominate bringing more settled weather”

A ridge of high pressure will push down and across the British Isles from Scandinavia, giving mainly dry weather with some warm, easterly winds. Later in the week, low pressure may develop close to the southwest of the British Isles, spawning a few showers in Wales, the Midlands and the southwest of England.

Temperatures in all parts should be well above the seasonal average. Scotland's average is 12C, Northern Ireland's 13C and England and Wales should achieve somewhere between 12 and 15C, depending on location at this time of year. 20C plus may well be achieved in a good many places during this week.

Given the presence of the high pressure, rainfall totals are expected to be below average in just about all areas, especially so across East Anglia and the southeast of England. At this stage, it looks as though Northern Ireland, western Scotland, and both eastern and central England will do particularly well for sunshine.

Monday 12th May 2008 to Sunday 18th May 2008

"High pressure lingers in the south but the north looks more unsettled"

Pressure will become lower than in the previous week. This will permit the development of some heavy showers. These showers will tend to affect the Midlands, East Anglia, northwest England, Northern Ireland and northeast Scotland.

Temperatures will be well above average in many parts of the British Isles despite the fact that sunshine amounts will be only near or below average throughout the week.

Monday 19th May 2008 to Sunday 1st June 2008

“High pressure lingers in the south but the north looks more unsettled”

Low pressures dominates the north through the period to give a more unsettled look to the weather. Northern Ireland and northwest Scotland should achieve above average rainfall whilst East Anglia and northeast England should be amongst the sunniest areas.

Temperatures will be above average in a good many areas.

How will the summer shape up during early June, check next week's forecast to find out

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

A change to more unsettled weather looks likely with rain at times for most areas.

The weather seemed to make a leap straight into mid-summer, as temperatures hit the mid to high 20s Celsius across most of the UK. This was around ten degrees above the seasonal average - not record breaking, but certainly notable.

A feed of warm, dry air from the continent was responsible for the high temperatures and sunny skies, but it looks as if the dry easterlies will be replaced by wetter southwesterlies for the second half of May, bringing rain at times from the Atlantic.

Despite the more unsettled weather, it should still be pleasantly warm for much of the time, especially during any sunny spells between the showers.

Monday 12th May 2008 to Sunday 18th May 2008

“Sunny skies give way to showers later in the week.”

A subtle change in wind direction from southeast to east means that the air feeding across the UK gradually becomes a little cooler during the first half of the week, so the sunshine won't be able to push temperatures quite so high. Expect low 20s in the warmest spots, high teens otherwise.

An onshore wind means the risk of sea fog at times along North Sea coasts, and some grey mornings further inland before the sun breaks through.

An area of low pressure then starts to edge in from the southwest for the second half of the week, gradually spreading showery outbreaks of rain northwards to reach most places by the end of the weekend.

Despite the showers, temperatures should stay above average and it will feel pleasantly warm in brighter spells, especially as the easterly winds die down.

Monday 19th May 2008 to Sunday 25th May 2008

"Rain at times for most, but temperatures hold up."

Low pressure becomes anchored over Ireland, spinning bands of showers or longer spells of rain across all parts of the UK from the southwest. As a result, rainfall should be near or above average for most areas, although East Anglia and the southeast may see the driest weather.

Light southwesterly winds should keep temperatures above average and it will feel very warm whenever the rain clears and the sun breaks through.

Monday 26th May 2008 to Sunday 8th June 2008

“Summer sunshine for the change of month.”

The signs are that high pressure will start to build again across the southern half of the UK for the end of May and start of June. This means a good chance of some fine summer weather across England and Wales with sunny spells and temperatures on the warm side.

Occasional unsettled spells are more likely across Scotland and Northern Ireland, although it should be warmer than average with some sunshine at times.

Will the month of June bring a sunny or soggy solstice? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Typical early summer weather - sunny spells and rain at times.

We're not far now from the longest day, the mid point of the meteorological year when the sun reaches its highest point in the sky.

That doesn't mean we necessarily see the highest temperatures during this period, as it takes a while for the atmosphere and the seas around the UK to warm up. There is, effectively, a lag in the climate system.

Signs are that temperatures will be close to average during the next four weeks as a whole, pleasant enough when there's some sunshine around. Expect some rain at times too, in fact typical early summer weather.

Monday 19 May 2008 to Sunday 25 May 2008

"Dry days and chilly nights at first, then warmer but unsettled."

With Chelsea Flower Show followed by a Bank Holiday weekend, you might expect the weather to take a turn for the worse and there are signs that rain will become more likely by the end of the week.

Gardeners certainly need to be aware of the potential for night frost under clear skies during the early part of the week. A ridge of high pressure means that dry weather will predominate, with sunny spells in most areas.

From midweek onwards, a slow-moving area of low pressure in the Atlantic starts to nudge weather fronts into western parts of the UK. Outbreaks of rain will start to affect western areas during Wednesday and Thursday, with the chance of rain extending a little further eastwards by the weekend. Northern Scotland and Eastern England are most likely to stay dry.

As southerly winds freshen, so temperatures will start to rise, banishing the risk of frost and making it feel warmer by day.

Monday 26 May 2008 to Sunday 01 June 2008

"Showers for most of us, but also some sunshine."

A broad area of low pressure is expected to extend across the UK, bringing a mix of bright or sunny spells and occasional rain.

Southwest Scotland could be one of the wetter spots, with Northern Ireland, Northwest England and the Midlands seeing fewer showers.

It should feel reasonably warm with temperatures into the low twenties Celsius generally, although it will be rather cooler where rain becomes more persistent.

Monday 02 June 2008 to Sunday 15 June 2008

"Showery theme continues, especially in the south."

The potential for slow-moving heavy showers remains, especially across South Wales and Southern England but it will stay warm in the sunshine between the showers.

Northwestern parts of the UK may see the driest and sunniest of the weather, particularly the northwest of Scotland where May and June often brings the best of the summer weather.

Onwards through the longest day - will summer get into its stride?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

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Edited May 19, 2008 by Stuart

[Stuart]

High pressure could bring a taste of summer.

Bank Holiday weather rarely generates a great deal of optimism. Those that spent the late spring bank holiday in the southern half of Britain will just have been supplied with more ammunition for their cause.

The Met Office issued a number of weather warnings for the intensity of rainfall through the weekend, in the expectation that some spots may achieve a month's worth of rain in just a couple of days.

What a contrast across the northern half of the British Isles. Some parts of Scotland have barely recorded a millimetre of rain in the whole month.

Monday 26 May 2008 to Sunday 1 June 2008

“Rain across the country until ridge offers a drier prospect.”

The Bank Holiday pattern of low pressure to the south and high to the north of Scotland seems set to continue through the first half of the week. Active weather fronts will bring significant rainfall to southern England and Wales early in the week before transferring their rainfall further north and west to Scotland, Northern Ireland and the far west of England and Wales by midweek.

From there on, a weak weather front will work its way into Northern Ireland and western Scotland whilst a ridge will build in from the Azores high to dominate southwest England and Wales. Much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland will lie under a very slack airflow.

The recent dip in temperatures in the rain affected areas will be rectified by midweek when humid conditions spread from the Near Continent. 23C is distinctly possible in East Anglia on Wednesday. 16-20C should cover it elsewhere.

Sunshine amounts will be disappointing away from western Scotland but cloud should break in England and Wales later in the week to redress the balance. Northern Ireland and Scotland will be cloudier by this stage.

Monday 2 June 2008 to Sunday 08 June 2008

"Another north-south divide."

High pressure will extend across southern England and south Wales, producing a west to southwesterly airflow and a boost to temperatures.

Sunshine amounts should be at their highest across the south and east of England but further north the picture is less rosy.

Low pressure will extend from Newfoundland to Norway allow associated fronts to drift into the northwest of Scotland, where rainfall amounts will be at least close to the seasonal average. Temperatures and sunshine amounts will be close to average values.

Monday 09 June 2008 to Sunday 22 June 2008

“Little change in overall pattern brings a taste of summer.”

High pressure to the south and low pressure close to the north of Scotland will keep a settled look to proceedings through the period.

Temperatures away from some exposed, western coasts should be above average. Sunshine amounts will be at their highest in the south and east and it should be drier than average except in the northwest of Scotland.

Heading to Wimbledon this year? Find out what the weather will be serving up, next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Change of month brings changeable weather.

Whilst expectations of fine and settled weather may rise as we move from May to June, the statistics don't support such hopes. For some parts of the British Isles, May 2008 would be hard to beat no matter how good the following June turns out to be.

Eskdalemuir in southern Scotland saw its third warmest and fourth driest may since records began whilst the Northern Isles achieved their fourth driest and fourth sunniest May.

All the statistics are yet to be finalised, but Northern Ireland seems to have recorded its warmest May, beating a record set back in 1960. For the UK as a whole, England and Wales just failed to pip the warmth of 1992.

A selective choice of Scotland would suggest that May was a dry month with just 29% of the monthly average recorded. The Bank Holiday washout in southern Britain contributed to rainfall some 147% of the average for southeast and central England.

Monday 02 June 2008 to Sunday 08 June 2008

“Low pressure brings yet more wet weather.”

Low pressure will be close to the British Isles throughout the period with only a temporary break from the wet spell of weather midweek. As is often the case at this time of year, low pressure systems are not that deep and winds will be predominantly light to moderate.

After the recent spell of particularly wet weather in Wales and southwest of England, news that many western parts of the British Isles will be wetter than average will not be welcome.

The first part of the week will be marked by yet more heavy and potentially thundery downpours, particularly in Wales, England and Northern Ireland.

Despite the amount of rainfall, sunshine amounts will be close to average. Temperatures should also not disappoint. It will feel pleasantly warm where the sun manages to shine for any length of time.

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Monday 09 June 2008 to Sunday 15 June 2008

"Low pressure retreats, allowing more settled conditions to develop."

Low pressure should retreat towards the northwest of the British Isles, allowing high pressure to build towards the southern half of Britain. As a result of this, rainfall may be well above average in the northwest of Scotland but at or below average across the south of the British Isles.

Temperatures will generally be above the seasonal norms with the possibility of some very warm weather in northern and eastern parts. However, fine weather may not mean exceptional sunshine amounts, even in southern England.

Monday 16 June 2008 to Sunday 29 June 2008

“High pressure retreat makes for an unsettled picture.”

Just when you might have been getting used to any settled weather, it looks as though the high pressure may retreat for a time, allowing showers or longer spells of rain.

Eastern Britain may well remain warm through the period but wetter areas, especially in the north and west can only expect average or below average temperatures

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Tempting taste of summer sure not to last through June.

Temperatures are exceeding 26C as this article is written. The sun is shining from almost gin-clear skies across the greater part of England and Wales.

The pollen count is high and the exam season is in full swing. Surely summer has arrived. We all understand that all good things must come to an end, but after two days? Whatever one's forecasting tool of preference, there seems widespread agreement that a high pressure to the west of the British Isles in midweek will feed a cooler, northerly wind across all areas. 26C will be but a distant memory by week's end.

This is not a forecast for the onset of the next Ice Age. Temperatures will dip from their recent highs but the northerly will only bring temperatures closer to the seasonal norms. Scotland should range from 12 to 16C in mid-June; Northern Ireland 16C; northern and western England and Wales, 16 to 18C and south-eastern England 18-20C.

Monday 09 June 2008 to Sunday 15 June 2008

“Fine, warm start gives way to cooler, showery theme.”

The recent influence of the Azores high has been a welcome visitor. Its grip, particularly over England and Wales, will only last for a couple of days.

High pressure will reform to the west of Ireland by midweek, but in combination with low pressure over Scandinavia, will produce a cool and showery northwesterly airstream.

A succession of weak weather fronts will drift southwards to steadily drop temperatures across all areas by Wednesday. Little rain is expected from these, but there could be a few showers. The wind is likely to pick up along the east coast for a time, making it feel a little cooler.

Sunshine amounts will be above average in the south and west early in the week but fall to average later. Much of the north and east will be disappointingly cloudy.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens across all parts, after southern areas of England and Wales have enjoyed their brief flirtation with the mid twenties celsius.

Monday 16 June 2008 to Sunday 22 June 2008

"West is best as summer is put on hold."

Low pressure over Scandinavia will continue to dominate conditions across the eastern side of the British Isles with any settled conditions likely to be confined to the far southwest of England.

Showers or longer spells of rain will be pushed across the east of England and Scotland on a brisk, north to northwesterly wind.

Drier, brighter and warmer weather will be found in western areas, particularly so in western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures should be at or just above the seasonal norm but sunshine amounts, even in the west, will continue to disappoint.

Monday 23 June 2008 to Sunday 06 July 2008

“Sunny spells and showers take over as low retreats.”

Low pressure will gradually retreat eastwards, although there are no signs of the Azores high returning. The south may turn a bit more settled. A westerly wind will bring sunny spells and showers for many areas.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Disappointing start to an unsettled period.

Current trends suggest that the summer of '08 will be no threat to some of the records posted in the summer of '76.

In June of that year, Mayflower Park, Southampton, recorded England's highest June temperature of 35.6C whilst St Helier, Jersey, set the record for the Channel Islands at 32.9C. Knockarevan in Northern Ireland chipped in with 30.8C. For the sake of completeness, I should probably add that Scotland's June record was set as far back as 1893 at Ochtertyre whilst one only has to look back as far as 2000 to find Wales' record of 33.7C in Machynlleth.

If I tell you that June and early July averages range from the mid to upper teens across Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England, to the low 20s through east Anglia, the Midlands and the southeast of England, one gets a sense of just how exceptional the June records are.

The past week has brought temperatures at 27-28C across parts of southern England, giving a teasing taste of '76. Just as a singular swallow is no fabricator of a great summer, nor are two overly warm days.

Sunday 15 June 2008 to Saturday 21 June 2008

“Low pressure postpones onset of summer.”

Although the start of the period continues the sunny spells and showers theme of recent days, a significant area of low pressure will bring a radical change around midweek. An active weather front will first show its hand in the northwest of the British Isles during Tuesday but it will be into Wednesday before a weather front reaches southeast England.

Once the front has cleared, brighter, more showery conditions will return from the west. By the end of the week, a ridge of high pressure will begin to build across southern areas of the British Isles, whilst the low begins to loosen its grip on northern parts as it heads towards Scandinavia.

Winds will start and end the week coming from a northerly point, with only a brief interlude of milder southwesterlies. These milder airs, disappointingly, will coincide with the arrival of the front, tempering any real uplift in temperatures. Temperatures throughout the week will be slightly below average, recovering closer to the seasonal norm towards the weekend in the south.

Heavy showers and the arrival of a weather front midweek will combine to give above average rainfall totals. These weather features will help to suppress sunshine totals, which will also be slightly below the norm for June.

Sunday 22 June 2008 to Saturday 28 June 2008

"Brisk westerly winds to finish the month."

A weak area of high pressure is expected over the south of the country whilst low pressure moves away towards Scandinavia. This will leave the British Isles in a brisk west to northwesterly airstream across the south with lighter winds in the north.

Temperatures will again tend to disappoint, reaching average values in the south of both England and Wales but remaining low further north.

Rainfall totals are expected to be above average, with a consequent reduction in sunshine totals for some. It, however, isn't all bad news Some eastern and northern parts could see a little more sunshine than usual.

Sunday 29 June 2008 to Saturday 12 July 2008

“Ridge persists in the south but it will be cool.”

Still no significant heatwaves or prolonged spells of settled weather are anticipated. Higher pressure will try to hold on across the south of the British Isles but west to northwesterly winds will continue to dominate. Rainfall totals could well be above or even well above average.

Catch the first signs of summer on the monthly outlook!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled start to an unexceptional period of weather.

Last week's article started with a review of where June 2008 stood with regard to its temperatures by comparison to previous record breaking years, particularly 1976.

Despite a brief spike in temperatures, the first two weeks of June 2008 the mean temperature for the period looks to be only slightly above the 1961-1990 average.

If we dissect June a little further, the running rainfall totals seem to range from well below average across most western parts of the British Isles to well above the average across Oxfordshire and Berkshire, where a couple of reporting stations are already well above the overall June average.

The lack of rain in the west has also had an impact on sunshine amounts in the first half of the month. Here, sunshine amounts are well above seasonal average whereas the east is slightly under par.

Monday 23 June 2008 to Sunday 29 June 2008

“Fleeting glimpses of summer as weather pattern remains mobile.”

The last week of June starts with a weather pattern more akin to early spring or autumn. An unusually deep low has tracked across the British Isles, bringing gales to the north of the British Isles and gusts in excess of 60mph. A period of heavy rain accompanied the low, but will have cleared all parts as the low tracks towards Scandinavia.

A transient ridge will offer a quieter spell of weather to southern Britain early in the period but further lows will maintain an unsettled look to the weather across northern Britain and Northern Ireland.

Scattered showers in Northern Scotland and Northern Ireland on Monday may well be the extent of the rainfall for the day. Thereafter, rain will move into western areas of the British Isles on Tuesday to become confined to Scotland by Wednesday. Another area of rain will move into Scotland and Northern Ireland on Thursday before showers take over on the lead-in to the weekend.

Temperatures will peak in the low 20s Celsius in southern England, close to the seasonal average. Temperatures in the north will be closer to the mid-teens, also near par for late June.

Monday 30 June 2008 to Sunday 06 July 2008

"Change of month brings no change in weather fortunes."

The Azores high pressure will try to extend a ridge north-eastwards across much of England and Wales with low pressure to the north.

This is not an unusual set-up for the United Kingdom and induces mainly south-west to westerly winds. Temperatures and sunshine amounts are expected to be around the seasonal norm, but this average may well include warmer and cooler spells.

Rainfall amounts are expected to be a little above the average in many parts and could even be well above the norm in northern parts of the British Isles.

Monday 07 July 2008 to Sunday 20 July 2008

“Typically mixed offering for July.”

There appears to be little change in the overall surface pressure pattern with the Azores high still trying to ridge towards southern parts of England and Wales.

Rainfall may again be just above the seasonal average with temperature and sunshine amounts only average for early to mid-July.

Planning outdoor events? Get a feel for your weather on the monthly outlook.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

More rain at times. Perhaps better from mid July.

The British Summer is often described as 'two fine days and a thunderstorm'. The previous summer, and indeed this current one, hasn't really demonstrated this trait.

This looks about to change early this week as very warm and humid air, drawn up from France, should trigger some significant storms.

The humid air won't last long though as the weather pattern reverts to the changeable westerly type we've been used to for so long.

So once again many people will be wondering when the Summer is about to start. My answer (at the moment at least) is - 'wait until mid July'. This is when the weather looks like settling down and it could be a much better second half to July.

Monday 30 June 2008 to Sunday 06 July 2008

“Early thundery plume then sunshine and showers.”

Warmer and sunnier on Monday in many areas. Stronger southerly winds will introduce rain to western Scotland and Northern Ireland later.

The band of rain will edge east on Tuesday. As the temperature and humidity rises in England there is the likelihood of torrential thundery downpours by evening and the threat of flooding.

The heavy rain will edge east overnight with further downpours in eastern England and especially eastern Scotland on Wednesday.

Fresher air will push across all areas from the west by the end of Wednesday and push the heavy rain into the North Sea.

The rest of the week and the weekend sees temperatures falling to nearer normal with a southwesterly airflow bringing sunshine and showers.

There is the possibility that heavy rain in the North Sea could brush eastern coastal areas by the end of the week, then there is a signal for higher pressure in the south for a while over the weekend.

Monday 07 July 2008 to Sunday 13 July 2008

"Same airflow - same sunshine and showers."

Low pressure to the northwest of Scotland will fill and drift north, allowing a ridge to build across the southwest by the end of the week.

Temperature levels and sunshine amounts are expected to be near normal. Rainfall is expected to be above average or well above average.

Monday 14 July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008

“Drier and sunnier in the south.”

A ridge may persist over southern areas. Temperatures will be near normal but rainfall is expected to be well below average in the southwest.

A more cyclonic pattern over Scotland with rain at times. Temperatures over the northern half of the UK should be above average.

Rain or shine for the start of the school holidays?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Early July saw the hottest day of the year so far at just over 28C, 82F. It looks like we will have to wait until the end of the month to see something approaching this value again.

June ended on a fine and warm note and the first day or two of July held plenty of promise. However low pressure took over and culminated in some rather unseasonable weather.

Low pressure not only brought heavy rain but also unusually strong winds to some sea areas over the weekend. That same low pressure will take us into the start of the new week.

In fact the weather set up for at least the first two weeks of this period look set to be dominated by low pressure, but the computer models are hinting at a build of pressure calming things down towards the end of the month.

Average temperatures for this time of year lie between 12C in northern Isles of Scotland to 23C in southeast England.

Monday 07 July 2008 to Sunday 13 July 2008

“Showery and often cool.”

The week looks set to start and end on a showery note. For England and Wales heavy, slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will give some decent amounts of rainfall - across northern England, following the weekends rain there could be some localised flooding.

Southeast England will again have a brisk wind. Northern Ireland may have fewer showers, but it will be a rather cloudy day and Scotland will have more showers than we saw over the weekend.

Tuesday will bring little respite from the heavy slow moving showers, at least not across the eastern half of the UK. However western areas will have a quieter, drier day with a bit more brightness and sunshine.

By Wednesday morning however a new area of low pressure will arrive on the scene to bring more rain into Northern Ireland, Wales and western England. This will spread to all but northern Scotland during daylight, accompanied by brisk winds, especially in the south. The rain looks very heavy in southern areas.

As the rain clear on Thursday the pattern reverts back to sunny spells and showers, there will always be the risk that these will turn heavy and thundery given the energy in the July sunshine. The showery theme will then continue through Friday and the weekend when the heaviest showers are most likely over England and Wales.

As a result of the showers rainfall is expected to be around average but probably above in England and Wales.

With light winds and in the sunshine it will feel like July and temperatures should at least reach around average, but it will often feel cool in the rain.

Monday 14 July 2008 to Sunday 20 July 2008

"Sunshine but also more showers at first."

The week will pick up where the last ended with low pressure and showers. Even though the showers will at times be heavy and thundery, there will be sunny spells in between.

As is often the case in a showery scenario, some places will escape them altogether and stay dry.

By mid week the weather charts are even hinting at some slightly more settled conditions especially in southern Britain with lighter and fewer showers. The north may well keep rather more unsettled weather.

Temperatures are expected to be around average for mid July but one consolation, despite the showers is that sunshine should reach or exceed the seasonal average in southern areas.

Monday 21 July 2008 to Sunday 03 August 2008

“More hope of prolonged summer sunshine.”

The Azores High pressure, which is often responsible for settled weather over the UK during the summer months, looks set to make a return this week. As it drifts up from the mid Atlantic, it does mean the southern half of the UK will feel it's influence first.

Therefore drier, sunnier weather is expected for many. However it's influence tapers off as we move north, with Scotland looking set to stay rather wet.

The sunshine in the south will bring higher than average temperatures, but clearly with more unsettled weather further north, here we will see average at best.

Will summer arrive for August?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled at first, gradually settling down as pressure rises.

July has been quite unremarkable so far with some sunshine, but nothing like high summer. On Wednesday 9th some parts of southwest of England saw nearly a month's worth of rain in 24 hours.

The big picture over the next few weeks sees low pressure to the north of the UK and high pressure to the southwest bringing an unsettled westerly airflow across the UK at first.

Towards the end of the month and into the early part of next month there is a gradual trend towards more settled conditions as atmospheric pressure rises with the high to the southwest becoming more dominant.

Average temperatures are normally in the range of 14 or 15C in the Northern Isles to 23C or so in the London Area. Temperatures will fluctuate around those sorts of values over the coming days.

Monday 14 July 2008 to Sunday 20 July 2008

“Generally unsettled and cooling down.”

After some warmth in the south and east at first, a cold front will slip south across the UK introducing cooler conditions.

From mid-week onwards a cyclonic west or north-westerly airflow will bring a scattering of showers. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above average for the time of year in the north and west, where it will also be very windy at first.

Sheltered eastern parts of the UK will see normal amounts of rain for the time of year and the best of any brightness. Elsewhere can expect more cloud than sunshine but there will be some sunny spells in between the showers.

Temperatures may get as high as 25C in the southeast at first but by the end of the week this will drop to a a slightly below average 20C for the time of year.

Confidence in the forecast is high for the generally unsettled theme, not so for the detail on cloud amounts and rainfall.

Monday 21 July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008

"Cool and wet."

Another unsettled week with rainfall amounts across the whole of the UK expected to be somewhat more than the seasonal average.

With a good deal of rainfall there will be quite a lot of cloud and consequently sunshine will be quite limited.

With this sort of set-up temperatures are expected to be below average just about everywhere for the time of year.

We have moderate confidence in the forecast for this period.

Monday 28 July 2008 to Sunday 10 August 2008

“Pressure rising, conditions settling down.”

Temperatures across the UK will start off close to or below the norm but should rise to about what might be expected at this time of year.

Sunshine and rainfall amounts are expected to be close to the seasonal average.

Confidence in the forecast is moderate for this period.

What can we expect for the remainder of the summer holidays? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Settling down and warming up for a time, more changeable thereafter.

July hasn't really delivered what you might expect; just ask any of the golfers at The Open who really struggled in low temperatures, rain and strong, gusty winds.

The low pressure system responsible for that is now moving away towards Scandinavia allowing pressure to rise across the UK. As conditions settle down, temperatures will rise.

Average temperatures for the time of year are in the range of 16C in Stornoway to 23C in London, temperatures will be higher than this during the middle of this week.

Monday 21 July 2008 to Sunday 27 July 2008

“Warming up.”

Apart from a little rain in the northwest of the UK early in the period most places will be fine and dry.

Atmospheric pressure will rise steadily day by day, peaking midweek and then falling back. As pressure rises, the winds will ease, continental air will drift across the country and there will be some lengthy spells of sunshine. With these conditions it will feel quite warm.

Thursday looks like the warmest day of this spell, with 17C in Stornoway, a warm 22C in Glasgow and a very warm 26C in London. However, by early Friday conditions will break down as some thundery rain begins to spread in from the west.

As the weekend develops we'll lose the continental air and as westerly winds pick up, the Atlantic influence will return.

Monday 28 July 2008 to Sunday 03 August 2008

"Generally unsettled."

Despite a weak ridge of high pressure building in from the southwest conditions generally look unsettled.

Rainfall amounts are likely to above the seasonal average and with the associated cloud, sunshine amounts will be a little bit below average for the time of year.

Monday 04 August 2008 to Sunday 17 August 2008

“Changeable.”

A mobile, westerly airstream will cover the UK. There will be more rain than what might be expected for the time of year and consequently sunshine amounts and temperatures will be somewhat lower than the seasonal average.

How long will the warm spell last?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Westerly airflow likely to keep an unsettled theme to the weather.

30.2C was recorded at the London Weather Centre on Sunday 27th July, marking a new high for temperatures this year.

England's highest July temperature was recorded at the Royal Horticultural Society gardens at Wisley, southwest of London in 2006. 36.5C was the mark on that day.

Jersey holds the record for the Channel Islands with a sparkling 34.8C recorded in 1952, closely followed by Gogerddan in Wales where 34.6C was reached in 2006.

This year marks the centenary of Scotland's warmest July day. Dumfries was the place to be on 2nd July 1808 as the mercury tipped 32.8C. Belfast's 30.8C in 1983 marks the peak of Northern Ireland's July temperatures.

Some of course find extreme heat very trying. For you, relief is in sight!

Monday 28 July 2008 to Sunday 3 August 2008

“Thunderstorms bring an end to the July hot spell.”

A complex low, centred to the west of the British Isles looks set to be the dominant feature of this week's weather.

A succession of fronts will bring an initial, thundery breakdown in the recent hot spell, with other frontal systems maintaining an unsettled look to the period.

As a westerly airflow becomes established, so showers or longer spells of rain will affect northern and western areas, with the best of any drier and brighter spells to be found in the south and east.

There will be high temperatures this week across the Midlands. East Anglia and the southeast of England could reach 30C but there will be a general decline in all areas, most marked in Northern Ireland.

Monday 4 August 2008 to Sunday 10 August 2008

"Cooler and more showery as low pressure dominates."

Low pressure will migrate to the east of Scotland, introducing a west to northwesterly flow.

Rainfall totals are expected to be well above the seasonal average, although, as much of the rainfall will come in the form of showers, large local variations are expected.

Given the wind direction, temperatures are expected to be below or even well below average. The Midlands and southeast England may be a little warmer due to cloud cover holding up night minima. Sunshine amounts may disappoint, especially in western areas.

Monday 11 August 2008 to Sunday 24 August 2008

“Brighter prospects in the south as pressure builds.”

Low pressure will remain close to northern parts of the British Isles, keeping rainfall amounts above average for the time year whilst temperatures will remain below.

A ridge may develop in the south, particularly the southwest, allowing the prospect of drier, sunnier and warmer weather here.

What does the weather hold for the August Bank Holiday? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Quite wet at first but gradually settling down.

August got off to a very wet start for most parts of the UK. A weather system moved through bringing around 50mm of rain to some parts.

It also brought a fresher feel to things after a very muggy end to July. Low pressure dominated the weather in the first few days of the month, bringing a disappointing weekend to many.

Looking out into the Atlantic, further systems are heading our way and there's plenty more rain to come.

Monday 04 August 2008 to Sunday 10 August 2008

“Cool and wet.”

As one low moves away towards Scandinavia the next low is gaining momentum in the Atlantic.

Monday looks like a reasonable day of sunny spells and scattered, mainly light, showers with a north-westerly breeze. Later in the day the next Atlantic low will bring wind, rain, hill and coastal fog to the southwest of England.

These conditions will spread across the rest of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and later southern Scotland during the day on Tuesday, with humid conditions in the south. The low is still with us on Wednesday, which will bring further rain or showers for many parts of the UK.

Thursday sees the low moving off the northeast coast of Scotland, bringing a windy day for all. Northerly winds will bring a cool feel to things with persistent rain in northern Scotland. Elsewhere, there will be sunny spells and blustery showers.

As the low continues to pull away a transient ridge of high pressure will bring a brief respite for Friday but developing systems in the Atlantic will probably bring more rain for the coming weekend.

Monday 11 August 2008 to Sunday 17 August 2008

"A wet week."

A low pressure system centred in the northern North Sea with higher pressure in the south of the UK will maintain cyclonic conditions.

The resultant north-westerly winds will bring a cool feel to things and also some rain. A wet week is expected for all areas, but the wettest conditions are likely in more eastern parts of the UK.

With pressure continuing to rise in the south, a drier and brighter end to the week is expected. Sunshine amounts and temperatures are likely to be at best average for the time of year. Rainfall is expected to exceed the seasonal average.

Monday 18 August 2008 to Sunday 31 August 2008

“Settling down.”

The Azores high continues to build from the south, settling things down. Some rain is still likely, but only what might be expected for the time of year.

Temperatures and sunshine amounts will also be near the seasonal average but there could be some relatively cool nights in the south.

Will warm weather return for the end of August? Check here next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[weathermandan]

Quite wet at first but gradually settling down.

August got off to a very wet start for most parts of the UK. A weather system moved through bringing around 50mm of rain to some parts.

It also brought a fresher feel to things after a very muggy end to July. Low pressure dominated the weather in the first few days of the month, bringing a disappointing weekend to many.

Looking out into the Atlantic, further systems are heading our way and there's plenty more rain to come.

Monday 04 August 2008 to Sunday 10 August 2008

"Cool and wet."

As one low moves away towards Scandinavia the next low is gaining momentum in the Atlantic.

Monday looks like a reasonable day of sunny spells and scattered, mainly light, showers with a north-westerly breeze. Later in the day the next Atlantic low will bring wind, rain, hill and coastal fog to the southwest of England.

These conditions will spread across the rest of England, Wales, Northern Ireland and later southern Scotland during the day on Tuesday, with humid conditions in the south. The low is still with us on Wednesday, which will bring further rain or showers for many parts of the UK.

Thursday sees the low moving off the northeast coast of Scotland, bringing a windy day for all. Northerly winds will bring a cool feel to things with persistent rain in northern Scotland. Elsewhere, there will be sunny spells and blustery showers.

As the low continues to pull away a transient ridge of high pressure will bring a brief respite for Friday but developing systems in the Atlantic will probably bring more rain for the coming weekend.

Monday 11 August 2008 to Sunday 17 August 2008

"A wet week."

A low pressure system centred in the northern North Sea with higher pressure in the south of the UK will maintain cyclonic conditions.

The resultant north-westerly winds will bring a cool feel to things and also some rain. A wet week is expected for all areas, but the wettest conditions are likely in more eastern parts of the UK.

With pressure continuing to rise in the south, a drier and brighter end to the week is expected. Sunshine amounts and temperatures are likely to be at best average for the time of year. Rainfall is expected to exceed the seasonal average.

Monday 18 August 2008 to Sunday 31 August 2008

"Settling down."

The Azores high continues to build from the south, settling things down. Some rain is still likely, but only what might be expected for the time of year.

Temperatures and sunshine amounts will also be near the seasonal average but there could be some relatively cool nights in the south.

Will warm weather return for the end of August? Check here next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

When is the BBC monthly outlook every right? LOL

[Stuart]

We're only in the second week in August and yet I have already heard some using the 'A' word - A for autumn that is.

There is a widespread air of despair about the place. Summer has, by popular concensus, been something of a washout. Do the statistics support this belief?

If we look at UK rainfall figures for June and July. These show that the period experienced 132% of the 1971-2000 average for the period.

The recent floods in both southern Scotland and Lincolnshire would surely purport this.

However, when we look at the sunshine totals for the same period, these show that, at 105% of the seasonal average, we're ahead of the game.

Temperatures are not so wide of the seasonal mark and July finished off with a few days where 27-30C was commonplace.

So, what do the weeks ahead have in store?

Monday 11 August 2008 to Sunday 17 August 2008

“Low pressure dominates to maintain the unsettled theme.”

Showers or longer spells of rain will dominate all parts as an area of low pressure drifts from west of Ireland to the northern North Sea.

By the second half of the week, the feature's central pressure will be below 987mb, reasonably deep for the time of year. Fronts and troughs in its circulation will only add to the unsettled feel.

After a breezy start to the week, the wind will become a significant part of the weather story, with strong to gale force winds across Northern Ireland, Wales and England through Wednesday.

Temperatures will start the week close to the seasonal norm but will lean towards the cool end of the spectrum as sunshine amounts disappoint and the wind will veer north-west later in the week.

On the subject of rainfall, it looks as though all areas will get more than their fair share and further localised flooding cannot be ruled out.

Monday 18 August 2008 to Sunday 24 August 2008

"Remaining unsettled with further wet weather."

Those who have given up on the summer will only have their thoughts reinforced by another unsettled week.

Rainfall is likely to be close to or just above the seasonal average but it could be particularly wet in the north of the British Isles. Any development of high pressure is likely to be very temporary.

Temperatures will be no better than the average for the time of year with the south of England even struggling to make this mark.

At this point in the year, temperatures should be somewhere in the low 20's. As with the temperatures, sunshine amounts will at best be only the seasonal average.

Monday 25 August 2008 to Sunday 07 September 2008

“Signs of a slight improvement.”

Confidence is only rated as moderate at this range but there is a thought that things may begin to improve as we head to September.

Temperatures may even breech the average with slightly above average sunshine amounts possible for the time of year.

Rainfall amounts may be slightly below the seasonal average as a weak ridge builds in from the southwest.

Will the weather brighten up in September? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Little sign of summer in the short term as jetstream keeps the low pressures coming.

Following the recent floods in Fife, the images from Northern Ireland will only add to the perception that August 2008 is shaping up to be a record-breaking poor month.

Parts of eastern Scotland recorded over 160% of their August average rainfall on 5-6th August, only to see up to another 50mm of rain falling on 9th. Add in up to 30mm in Fife on 12-13th and you begin to see that perception has some basis.

Spectacular rainfall totals in recent days - anything up to 75mm in some areas, have already seen August rainfall records broken by 17th.

162mm of rainfall so far this month at Aldergrove, near Belfast, has broken the August record. The total is so exceptional that, even at this stage of the month, the running total puts August at number five in the list of wettest months stretching back to 1927!

As if all of the above wasn't enough, Aldergrove has recorded only 31 hours of sunshine this month, some 55 hours shy of the seasonal average.

Given the prospects over the forthcoming month, there seems little prospect of making up the lost ground.

Monday 18 August 2008 to Sunday 24 August 2008

“Low pressure dominates to keep the wet theme going.”

A deep area of low pressure to the southwest of Ireland will slowly track north-eastwards to lie over southwest Norway by Wednesday. From Thursday onwards, the likelihood is that another, shallower feature will take its place to keep the unsettled theme going.

Fronts associated with the initial low will provide something of a double whammy of rainfall across many parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Given the saturated ground in some areas, localised flooding cannot be ruled out. Winds will also be a feature of the weather early in the period, particularly in southwest England where gales are possible.

Rain will tend to give way to showers during the middle of the week. Wednesday offers the prospect of fewer showers with some spots managing to stay dry all day. Showers will, however, return on Thursday.

Temperatures through the period are only likely to be close to or slightly below the seasonal average, especially in the wetter spots. Sunshine amounts will also be disappointing.

Monday 25 August 2008 to Sunday 31 August 2008

"Weak ridge in the south offers some hope of a drier spell."

Low pressure systems continue to dominate the northern half of the British Isles whilst the Azores high tries to extend a weak ridge in to southern parts.

The combination of pressure systems will maintain a westerly airflow, bringing the prospect of spells of rain or showers from the Atlantic.

Rainfall should be close to the seasonal average apart from in the east of Scotland and in southeast England, where these sheltered spots may see slightly drier conditions. Temperatures may also begin to pick up by this stage.

Monday 01 September 2008 to Sunday 14 September 2008

“Little change in the overall pattern. Time is running out for summer!”

There will be little change in the pattern from the previous period. The southeast of England looks most favoured for any prolonged drier spell.

Elsewhere, conditions should be close to the average for the time of year. The one brighter prospect is for temperatures to continue to improve, perhaps even reaching well above seasonal average values in Scotland.

What will the end of summer bring? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Signs of some late summer warmth for the end of August, but don't expect it to last.

To return to last week's theme for a moment, a number of sites in central Scotland set new August rainfall records.

At Salburgh for example, midway between Edinburgh and Glasgow, a total of 229.2mm had fallen by 10am on 22nd August. This in well in excess of the previous record of 189.1mm for the whole of August set in 1992.

Can the UK expect more settled weather? The medium range charts suggest that high pressure will build in briefly to bring warmer south-westerly winds, but there is a hint of something more autumnal as we move into September.

Monday 25 August 2008 to Sunday 31 August 2008

“A warmer feel to the weather by the end of the week.”

Starting the week with a Bank Holiday is not a great way to guarantee dry weather, but actually for southern parts of the UK it looks as if the influence of an area of high pressure over the near continent will be enough to prevent anything but the most slightest rainfall.

Sunshine is likely to be in short supply, but despite this and a fairly brisk south-westerly breeze it should feel warm.

Further north, the difficult bit will be tracking the movement of a weather front as it waves back and forth bringing occasional spells of rain.

Western Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northwest England are the areas most likely to see any significant rain but even here we're unlikely to see a repeat of the torrential downpours of recent weeks.

The weather looks much more settled for the end of the week with a south-westerly airstream bringing a rise in temperature as sunshine breaks through, especially across eastern areas.

Monday 01 September 2008 to Sunday 07 September 2008

"Warmer weather unlikely to continue."

Low pressure systems are likely to resume their relentless march in from the Atlantic, so expect a return to much more unsettled weather.

Warm, humid air will gradually give way to cooler conditions as winds freshen from the west and the breakdown may be accompanied by some heavy and thundery outbreaks of rain.

Further rain is likely at times later in the week, especially in western areas.

Monday 08 September 2008 to Sunday 21 September 2008

“An autumnal feel to September.”

There's little sign of any quiet weather as September goes on, with everything pointing towards further showers or longer spells of rain, brisk winds and below-average temperatures for the time of year.

A few sunny spells are likely in between the showers, but that's likely to be the only bright spot in the forecast.

Will the season of mellow fruitfulness bring us mists, or more rain? Find out next week..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled with cool and wet conditions at first, may be some improvements in the south later on.

August was quite disappointing for many parts of the UK with plenty of rain and not much sunshine.

Indeed, Northern Ireland had its wettest August on record and many parts of the UK are likely to have had the dullest August since the areal series began in 1929.

There was some good news, Shetland has seen far more sunshine than usual.

As August ended on a wet note for many, the weather looks like it will be dominated by low pressure and its associated wind and rain for the start of September.

Monday 01 September 2008 to Sunday 07 September 2008

“Cool and changeable.”

Low pressure dominates the week. Monday sees wind and some heavy rain sweeping across the southern half of the UK.

With sunny spells and scattered heavy showers further north, eastern Scotland will see some more persistent rain. There will be a much fresher feel to things everywhere.

Tuesday sees the winds easing down except maybe in the southwest of England.

A day of sunny spells and showers across the UK, with the best of the sunny spells in the east and the heaviest showers in the west.

Wednesday sees cool north-westerly winds developing as the main driving low eases away towards Scandinavia.

It will be quite a windy day with rain in Scotland and elsewhere there will be sunny spells and showers.

Thursday will bring something of a respite as we are in-between systems, with lighter winds and just a few showers.

By Friday the next deep Atlantic low moves, in with gales likely around southern and western coasts.

Heavy rain will accompany the strong winds, spreading from west to east during the day. The same Atlantic low takes us into an unsettled weekend.

Monday 08 September 2008 to Sunday 14 September 2008

"Staying cool and wet."

Low pressure anchored over the north and west of Scotland will keep things unsettled through the week.

We can all expect some rain, more than your fair share in the Midlands and eastern England.

There will be a cool feel to things everywhere, with daytime temperatures well below the seasonal average in southern parts of the UK.

In spite of all that there should be some good sunny spells.

Monday 15 September 2008 to Sunday 28 September 2008

“Pressure tries to rise across the south.”

There are signs that pressure will start to rise over the southern half of the UK bringing a better chance of drier conditions and some sunshine.

At the same time, while pressure remains low over the northern half of the UK the unsettled theme continues here, and it will remain cool.

Wondering what early October has in store for us? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the beginning of October with the best hope of any drier brighter weather in the south and east.

August was an average month in only one respect, temperatures hovered around the seasonal average.

It was a very wet month for most of us with widespread flooding in Northern Ireland and parts of eastern Scotland. Northern Ireland had its wettest August since records began back in 1914.

No surprise either that it was also an exceptionally dull month with only the far north of Scotland recording above average sunshine for the time of year.

August brought to a close the summer months (for statistical purposes the Met Office uses June, July and August as the summer months). So what about our summer as a whole?

Despite August's poor showing, the three months averaged 92% of the expected summer sunshine.

Rainfall was well above average too, although not quite as wet as 2007 (except in Northern Ireland). It was the 5th wettest on record.

Temperatures differed little from normal for the time of year but interestingly it has been a very windy summer - one of the windiest for 40 years.

The reason for the above average wind and rain is down to the southerly position of our jet stream. These are strong winds in the upper atmosphere, which act like a road steering low pressure systems across the Atlantic to our shores.

During the summer months this windy highway transfers north pushing a lot of the Atlantic depressions north of the UK.

Unfortunately because it's been such a wet summer, (many areas having nearly one and a half times their expected rainfall) when the recent Autumn low struck the ground was too saturated to absorb much more water and resulted in severe flooding in Wales and north-east England.

Monday 08 September 2008 to Sunday 14 September 2008

“A brief ridge of high pressure will give a fine start to the week and in light winds it will feel pleasantly warm compared with of late.”

A brief ridge of high pressure will give a fine start to the week and in light winds it will feel pleasantly warm compared with of late.

Tuesday will bring more rain and brisk winds, potentially stalling over Northern Ireland, Western Scotland, Northwest England and Wales. As much as 20mm of rain will give a renewed risk of flood problems before clearing later.

Eastern areas will start fine before the heavy rain arrives by the end of the day.

On Wednesday the rain is expected to clear quickly to leave another window of drier brighter weather. However by the end of the day more rain will be threatening the western side of the UK.

Thursday and Friday will see more rain and strong to gale force winds crossing the UK as another deep autumnal low pressure runs east.

More significant rain is expected for all parts and the weather front may stall across eastern areas into the weekend.

Drier weather will follow later on Friday to western and central areas and may well last through Saturday but will result in some chilly nights.

However more rain is expected to sweep in off the Atlantic on Sunday.

Monday 15 September 2008 to Sunday 21 September 2008

"More rain for many, but some respite."

Southern Britain could well become drier for the first half of this week, so rainfall here should stay below the seasonal average.

However by midweek the low pressure systems bringing rain or showers to the northern half of the UK will gradually extend their influence further south.

By the weekend all parts will have showers or longer spells of rain.

Temperatures will at best hover around the seasonal average but will for most be a little below with all the cloud around.

With the brief ridges of high pressure in southern areas we are hopeful for some more sunshine and a warmer feel.

Monday 22 September 2008 to Sunday 05 October 2008

“Wettest in the north, driest in the south.”

Areas of low pressure are expected to track over the north of Scotland with passing ridges of high pressure further south.

Therefore southern areas have a better chance of seeing some sunnier weather during the ridges of high pressure and as a result temperatures will at exceed the seasonal average.

More northern areas in the UK with low pressure close by will more likely see further rain or showers and above average rainfall.

Temperatures will at best be around average and it will feel cool when the wind picks up.

Is it too late for an Indian summer? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A much drier look to the weather for the second half of September, although it may not last into October.

The autumn months can bring us misty nights followed by golden days, or gales roaring in from the Atlantic.

The storms are often fuelled by the remnants of hurricanes, steered eastwards by strong jet streams, while the increased likelihood of fog is due to the longer nights allowing the atmosphere to cool down to a level where the moisture condenses out into fog.

Despite recent storminess on the other side of the Atlantic, it looks as if it's the quieter variety of autumn weather which will predominate during the early part of the forecast.

Monday 15 September 2008 to Sunday 21 September 2008

“Rain in the west at first, but a trend to drier weather as the week goes on.”

High pressure is well established across Scandinavia, acting as a block to weather systems from the Atlantic.

Unfortunately, the high pressure system brought the last set of weather fronts to a halt right across the western side of the UK.

These fronts will continue to bring outbreaks of rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland during the first half of the week, with occasional incursions into Wales, Northern and Southwest England.

Further east though, the influence of the high will be enough to keep most of the Midlands and Eastern England dry with occasional spells of sunshine.

Later in the week the Scandinavian high will link up with its partner in the Azores establishing a belt of dry, settled weather across much of England and Wales.

However that still leaves Scotland and Northern Ireland open to occasional spells of wind and rain from the northwest.

Monday 22 September 2008 to Sunday 28 September 2008

"Best chance of dry weather in the south."

The pattern looks likely to hold into the last week of September, with the dry spell likely to continue across southern parts of the UK, especially the southeast where there may be some cooler nights under clear skies.

North-western areas are more likely to see breezy conditions bringing occasional periods of rain, although there will be brighter spells in between the rain which is not expected to be unusually heavy.

Monday 22 September 2008 to Sunday 05 October 2008

“Hazy signal for the start of October.”

There is no clear signal of what we can expect for the start of October, but the mostly likely outcome seems to be a gradual move southwards of Atlantic weather systems, bringing changeable weather across most parts of the UK and keeping temperatures near average.

Are we in for a stormy October? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Mostly fine and dry at first but turning increasingly unsettled.

As the autumn equinox approached we finally got a lovely sunny weekend for most parts of the UK.

With plenty of sunshine and light winds most places saw above average temperatures, into the low 20's in Celsius, the low 70's in Fahrenheit.

All of that was very welcome after a very gloomy August and more generally a very disappointing summer.

Monday 22 September 2008 to Sunday 28 September 2008

“Mostly fine and dry.”

High pressure will be the dominant force this week. The centre of the high will drift from the west of Ireland, across Scotland and out towards Scandinavia.

This will generate an easterly airflow over the UK. There will be some rain, but most places will remain fine and dry.

Monday starts quite cold in Scotland and Northern Ireland with a slight grass frost, but it should be a fine day with some sunshine. England and Wales will start quite cloudy.

Patchy rain and showers will spread from the northeast of England into the Midlands and the southeast during the day. It will feel cooler than the weekend and that will persist all week.

A similar sort of day on Tuesday and Wednesday although by midweek any rain is really confined to the east coast of England. Light winds and low temperatures in the northwest of the UK will lead to early mist and fog patches here.

Rainfall amounts this week are generally well below average. Thursday and Friday look dry virtually everywhere although there will still be some early mist and fog, especially in the northwest. However there should be some sunshine once that clears.

Elsewhere will be rather cloudy but by Friday we should see sunny spells developing more widely. High pressure continues to dominate into the weekend.

Monday 29 September 2008 to Sunday 05 October 2008

"Slowly turning unsettled."

High pressure will retreat southwards allowing westerly winds and more unsettled conditions to become established.

There will be scattered showers across the country so rainfall amounts will be quite variable. However most areas will probably see lower than normal amounts of rain.

Sunshine amounts are likely to be near to or just below average with a similar story for the temperatures.

This breakdown is likely but the timing remains a little uncertain.

Monday 06 October 2008 to Sunday 19 October 2008

“Generally unsettled.”

Low pressure to the north of the UK with higher pressure to the south, the resultant westerly winds will bring rain at times but also some dry and bright periods.

Rainfall amounts likely to be near average for many areas with temperatures and sunshine amounts probably near to below normal.

Will it turn drier for the end of October? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Unsettled for the next couple of weeks, but relatively mild as winds blow in from the southwest.

The start of October saw the first autumn frosts in many areas and the first of the winter snows across the tops of the Scottish mountains, thanks to a brief incursion of polar air from the north.

October can be a rather stormy month, with Atlantic weather systems able to pick up energy from the still relatively warm waters to the west of the UK, but it can also bring the typical "Indian summer" weather if warm winds blow in from the south.

It looks as if we can expect a little taste of both during the next week or two.

Monday 06 October 2008 to Sunday 12 October 2008

“Some spells of wet and windy weather, but quieter midweek.”

Low pressure will dominate across the central Atlantic during the week, pushing a succession of weather fronts eastwards across the British Isles.

After a wet and windy spell on Tuesday, a weak ridge of high pressure should settle things down for a time on Wednesday with most places enjoying some sunshine for a time.

The ridge holds on into Thursday across southeastern parts of the UK, where it will feel pleasantly warm. Southwesterly gales and heavy rain will sweep in across northwestern areas, gradually edging southwards during Friday with a risk of severe gales in some areas.

The weekend looks like staying rather unsettled with brisk winds and showers or longer spells of rain in most places.

Monday 13 October 2008 to Sunday 19 October 2008

"Unsettled, autumnal theme continues."

The unsettled, autumnal theme is set to continue for the rest of the period, although southern and eastern areas are likely to fare best with more in the way of dry and bright weather.

Temperatures will be generally near to above normal throughout the period, with frost unlikely at night. For southern and eastern areas, it may occasionally feel quite warm on any brighter days.

Monday 20 October 2008 to Sunday 02 November 2008

“No clear signal, but perhaps a little drier.”

There's little sign of agreement between the various forecast models for any definite trend during this period, so confidence is low.

Low pressure may loosen its grip, allowing some drier spells, but there is also a suggestion that temperatures may edge a little lower at the same time.

Will the long November nights bring frost and fog?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Atlantic influence with rain or showers.

The last week saw temperatures regularly reaching as high 20 Celsius (68F), coupled with warm sunshine. This led many people to think of an Indian Summer, but where does the term originate?

The term 'Indian Summer' has nothing to do with South Asia but instead is thought to originate from North America. It is believed to be a warm, sunny, hazy spell of weather (often following a cold snap) that coincided with the main hunting season of native Americans.

Will it be happy hunting over the next few weeks though? There is a strong signal that we are all in for a change to a cooler westerly regime with rain at times.

Monday 13 October 2008 to Sunday 19 October 2008

“Some spells of wet and windy weather, but quieter midweek.”

We start the week with a southwesterly flow bringing mild but cloudy conditions. Depressions are queuing up in the Atlantic for Tuesday and Wednesday. The first low is shallow and brings lighter rain, the second on Wednesday is deeper with stronger winds and heavy rain.

Strong westerly winds dominate for the rest of the period, ushering in a cooler feel. Sunshine and showers on Thursday but Friday and the weekend look more unsettled with rain at times, heaviest in the northwest.

There may be a ground frost in northern Britain on Monday night but otherwise there is no strong signal for frosty conditions.

Monday 20 October 2008 to Sunday 26 October 2008

"Autumn mixture."

A westerly airflow predominates with temperatures again near or just below normal. Some brief colder interludes are possible as depressions transfer to Scandinavia pulling down northerly winds.

Rainfall is generally near average, as is sunshine, so a showery regime is implied.

Monday 27 October 2008 to Sunday 09 November 2008

“Wet in the northwest.”

No fireworks; but a cyclonic southwesterly type is signalled, with well above average rainfall in the northwest. Brief ridging in the southeast at times implies some fog formation.

Temperatures should recover, with some rather warm conditions at times in the south.

Is there a cold blast in store?

Is the first big cold snap looming? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml