BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

It is expected to turn somewhat milder and wetter over the coming month.

After a chilly and dry spell for the past couple of weeks the month ahead looks different with the weather turning more unsettled with spells of rain and an increase in temperature. The average temperatures for the end of December and early January are around 5 to 8C by day.

Monday 24 December 2007 to Sunday 30 December 2007

“Turning milder and wetter.”

After the recent dry spell things will turn much more unsettled this week with weather fronts crossing the country bringing spells of rain. The rain will be persistent over southern Scotland, northern England and Wales during Monday and Tuesday with drier conditions either side.

The southwesterly winds will also increase and bring milder conditions with the night frosts becoming much less widespread and temperatures by day above average at 7 to 11C.

Wednesday will start dry before another front brings rain into the west later. Again it will be breezy and quite mild.

Thursday and Friday and the weekend will mainly see the winds set to come in from the southwest. These stiff winds will continue to feed in mild air, meaning little night time frosts and above average temperatures by day. Low pressure systems moving to the north of the UK will send active weather fronts and spells of rain across all areas too.

Monday 31 December 2007 to Sunday 06 January 2008

“Staying mild with further rain chiefly in the north.”

Low pressure over, or to the north of, Scotland for most of the week. The winds will continue to be west or southwesterly so temperatures by day and night will be above average with no significant frost risk.

Southern parts of the UK will have some rain but the wettest weather is set to be to the north and west of the country.

Monday 07 January 2008 to Sunday 20 January 2008

“Remaining unsettled and fairly mild.”

The west or southwest winds look set to continue and so will the generally mild theme. Weather fronts will also continue to spread rain bands across the country through the middle of January.

Will there be any snow for the end of January?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A cold snap early in the new year. It will turn more unsettled mid-month.

Average daytime temperatures for early January are in the range of 5-8C. It’ll be colder than that for most parts in early January with some sleet and snow. As more unsettled conditions develop it’ll turn milder and wetter.

Monday 31 December 2007 to Sunday 06 January 2008

“Mild at first but soon turning cold.”

It’ll be a rather cloudy but mild end to 2007 with rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland and a little drizzle for England and Wales, with similar conditions to start the new year.

By Wednesday an easterly wind from the near continent will bring much lower temperatures and the risk of some sleet and snow for Eastern parts of the UK at first, a similar risk further west later. On Thursday it will be cold and windy everywhere with snow flurries in the northeast and later on in the south of the UK.

Through Friday and into Saturday we start to pick up the Atlantic influence with a deep low near Iceland spreading wind and rain across all parts for the first part of the weekend and it will begin to turn milder.

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Monday 07 January 2008 to Sunday 13 January 2008

“Unsettled, mild and wet.”

Monday 14 January 2008 to Sunday 27 January 2008

“Mild and unsettled.”

A mild southwesterly airstream is expected to dominate, although southeasterly winds may affect Southern England at times bringing the risk of overnight frosts.

Northwest Scotland looks set for quite a bit of rain, with Northern England and Northern Ireland also seeing more than their fair share.

How much snow will we see in early February?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[johnholmes]

I have to say, even as an ex member of UK Met, the monthly ouputs seem no more accurate than when first tried almost 30 years ago!

[Nick L]

Why is it whenever it gets even remotely cold, the monthly outlook forecaster is desperate to get the mild conditions back?! Half the time they are wrong so I don't really pay any attention to them!

[Stuart]

Unsettled and changeable.

With low pressure close to Iceland and high pressure over Iberia there will be a west or southwesterly flow across the UK. The winds will be strong at times and will bring a succession of weather systems our way.

Those weather systems will bring spells of rain to most parts of the UK with northern and western areas likely to see more rain than elsewhere.

Snow is forecast for many northern parts of the UK early in the period.

Temperatures (both max and min) are likely to rise above the average for the middle part of the forecast. Average temperatures are 5/6C in Scotland and Northern Ireland, 7to 9C in England and Wales.

Monday 7th January 2008 to Sunday 13th January 2008

“Very unsettled”

Low pressure to the north of the UK will be the dominant force. Strong to gale or even severe gale force winds will spread across the northern half of the UK into Monday morning bringing a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow. 2-5 cm of snow could well settle at low levels, with icy roads as well, the rush hour in northern Britain could be very tricky indeed.

The worst of it should be over by late morning and then it's a blustery day with some sunshine and some heavy showers, with temperatures around the average.

Tuesday sees another weather system coming in from the west; it'll be windy everywhere with rain spreading to all parts as the day develops. This system could also bring some significant snow to the northern hills of the UK.

Wednesday looks like the least eventful day of the week, breezy with sunny spells and just a few wintry showers in the far northwest.

The southwesterly winds will pick up once again for Thursday with rain for most although Scotland will probably stay dry with lighter winds than elsewhere. Another windy day on Friday with sunshine and blustery showers.

The winds will ease into the start of the weekend with showers for some western areas, turning wet and windy again by Sunday.

Monday 14th January 2008 to Sunday 20th January 2008

"Breezy and changeable"

West or southwesterly winds will continue, they will be quite strong at times. Those winds will bring plenty of cloud and rain to the northwest of the UK, parts of eastern England could also see a fair bit of rain.

The winds will also bring some relatively mild air with them so temperatures are expected to creep up above the average both by day and night so a widespread frost is unlikely. Sunshine amounts will be close to or a little bit above average.

Monday 21st January 2008 to Sunday 3rd February 2008

“Little change”

The general pattern remains the same with west or southwesterly winds across the UK, however the actual atmospheric pressure over the UK is expected to rise. As a consequence, rainfall amounts are likely to be near or below average.

The south of the UK could well see prolonged dry spells. Sunshine amounts and temperatures are expected to be around average.

How mild will it get mid-month? Find out more next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[acbrixton]

Why is it whenever it gets even remotely cold, the monthly outlook forecaster is desperate to get the mild conditions back?!

Has it not occurred to you (and a number of others) that the meteorologists of the UKMO do not have some wicked 'warmist' agenda and that their monthly forecasts are no more than their, admittedly imperfect but honest, attempts to interpret the available data?

regards

ACB

[stewfox]

Has it not occurred to you (and a number of others) that the meteorologists of the UKMO do not have some wicked 'warmist' agenda and that their monthly forecasts are no more than their, admittedly imperfect but honest, attempts to interpret the available data?

regards

ACB

Of course they have a warmest agenda !!

December 2007 was the 3rd coldest december this century , not mentioned anywhere

I remember loads of air frosts

ps is the fact correct ??

December 2007 in Northern Ireland

Mean temperatures around 1 deg C above average for December, leading to 2007 being the warmest year in the Northern Ireland areal series, which began in 1914.

[Shunter]

BBC monthly outlook updated. Mild & unsettled for the next four weeks with a possiblity of stronger winds for the first week in February. Not suprising really.....I can only remember a couple of cold forecasts from them in the past five years or so.

[jemtom]

BBC monthly outlook updated. Mild & unsettled for the next four weeks with a possiblity of stronger winds for the first week in February. Not suprising really.....I can only remember a couple of cold forecasts from them in the past five years or so.

Thats probably because it's only been cold a couple of times in the last 5 years....

[Aby]

BBC monthly outlook updated. Mild & unsettled for the next four weeks with a possiblity of stronger winds for the first week in February. Not suprising really.....I can only remember a couple of cold forecasts from them in the past five years or so.

gone is the easterly suggested yesterday by the met office 15 dayer though

Edited January 14, 2008 by Aby

[Stuart]

No change in weather as unsettled theme continues.

As forecast, the romantic notion of a widespread white Christmas failed to materialise and January has continued in a similar vein. Recent snowfall over the Scottish mountains offered the prospect of some decent, home-grown skiing but this has been curtailed by a moist, mild, southerly air stream.

The predominance of south or southwesterly winds kept temperatures at or above average in many parts in the early days of 2007. This theme looks set to continue for a greater part of the next month.

This comes on the back of recently released figures for 2007, which showed that on a global level 2007 was the seventh warmest on record since 1850.

Monday 14th January 2008 to Sunday 20th January 2008

“No settled spell in sight as low pressure dominates.”

The forecast for this period will cause concern for those living in low lying areas of Wales and the southwest of England. The ground is already saturated with a number of flood warnings in force at the time of writing.

The overall picture for the week is for low pressure systems to track across or close by to the British Isles, bringing spells of rain and strong winds on both Tuesday and Thursday.

The run of south to southwesterly winds looks set to dominate until Wednesday, keeping temperatures across much of England and Wales above or well above average.

As a low tracks into the North Sea, so a strong to gale force north to northeasterly will set in across Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing the prospect of snow for higher ground once more. A night frost is most likely from Wednesday into Thursday as skies clear and winds fall light.

Sunshine amounts will be only average or even a little below average in all parts throughout the week, no surprise given the above average rainfall expected across much of northern and western Britain.

Monday 21st January 2008 to Sunday 27th January 2008

"Dry spells at a premium as rain continues to fall."

No signs of high pressure bringing a prolonged spell of settled weather. Low pressures will continue to keep a mobile, unsettled theme to the weather pattern throughout the period.

Temperatures will stay well above average in all parts of the British Isles, but this is unlikely to be due to copious amounts of sunshine. The brightest spots are likely to be north and east Scotland.

Rainfall totals will be above average in Wales, Northern Ireland, western Scotland and most of England. They may well become well above average across the far northwest of Scotland. All other parts will be somewhat drier.

Monday 28th January 2008 to Sunday 10th February 2008

“Staying unsettled, potential for stronger winds.”

The early part of February may well be marked by strong winds and gales as low pressure continues to bring spells of wet and windy weather to many areas. Temperatures will again be at least above average if not well above average, both by day and night. Sunshine amounts, however, could well be disappointing for western parts of the British Isles.

Temperatures will again be at least above average if not well above average, both by day and night. Sunshine amounts, however, could well be disappointing for western parts of the British Isles.

Will mid-February bring change to the unsettled spell? Find out more next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

The unsettled theme continues.

Last week was a tale of two halves, we saw some of the best skiing conditions in Scotland for many a year and the warmest January night on record across much of southeast England.

Taking into account the temperature contrast it wasn't surprising to find a weather front parked across the middle of the UK and it was the relentless rain from that slow-moving front that left us with swollen rivers and flood warnings galore.

So, a period of high pressure and dry weather would be welcome, but there is not much sign of it.

Monday 21st January 2008 to Sunday 27th January 2008

“Rain, gales and even some snow.”

The week kicks-off with yet another depression bringing heavy rain and hill snow to northern parts of the UK, with a brief incursion of colder air increasing the risk of ice.

Tuesday and Wednesday sees a return to brisk westerly winds, throwing areas of cloud and outbreaks of rain across most areas, with the heaviest rain likely across western coasts and hills.

As the frontal zone sinks a little further southwards into the continent, we should see some brighter weather with some welcome sunshine, but also a scattering of heavy showers, falling as snow over hills.

The week ends with westerly gales blasting in from the Atlantic, but this time there's a definite northwards shift of the rain-bearing frontal band, so the risk of heaviest rain transfers to Scotland. At the same time, things start looking brighter further south.

Monday 28th January 2008 to Sunday 3rd February 2008

"Wet and windy in the north, drier and brighter for the south."

There is a good sign that a large area of high pressure will build across to the south of the UK, suggesting that much of England and Wales will become drier, with some sunshine.

Scotland and Northern Ireland are likely to see further outbreaks of rain with a threat of gales, perhaps severe at times across the northwest.

Predominant wind direction will be southwesterly, which means that it should stay relatively mild.

Monday 4th February 2008 to Sunday 17th February 2008

“The weather is in no mood to change.”

It looks like the pattern will stay much the same, with low pressure to the north of the UK and high pressure to the south, a fairly typical set-up for this time of year.

This should keep things fairly mild, with the strongest winds and heaviest rain in the north, driest weather in the south.

Will it turn colder as we head further into February? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Wet at times. Relatively cold at first then mostly mild.

The number of flood warnings issued recently has now decreased after high pressure in the south brought drier conditions. The milder air over the weekend meant it felt more like spring as crocuses made an appearance in some southern gardens.

The spring bulbs may go into hiding this week as pressure falls and it turns colder from the north. The cold transition may be only brief.

Frost will be limited and temperatures will soon recover to nearer normal but accompanied by spells of rain and strong winds.

Monday 28th January 2008 to Sunday 3rd February 2008

“More rain at times. Brief cold interludes.”

The week starts on a cloudy note. Most places will be dry; again any light rain is most likely in western Scotland. On Tuesday and Wednesday a band of rain creeps south over the UK.

Colder air will follow with wintry showers in northern areas by midweek. There is the risk of a slight frost on Tuesday night and Wednesday night after the rain clears.

On Thursday a vigorous depression is expected to run to the north of Scotland bringing widespread gales and rain to many areas, which is expected to be heaviest in the west.

Colder, strong northwesterly winds are expected to follow on Friday and Saturday with showers, perhaps wintry in the north. Later in the weekend the threat of snow decreases as temperatures take an upward turn.

Monday 4th February 2008 to Sunday 10th February 2008

"Wet and mild with little frost."

There is a stronger indication of wetter and milder weather towards northwestern parts of the UK. Temperatures will be near or above normal elsewhere with little frost.

It may be drier than normal in many eastern counties of England with more sunshine than average.

Monday 11th February 2008 to Sunday 24th February 2008

“Mild and unsettled.”

Outbreaks of rain or showers are expected. Wetter than normal in many areas away from the southeast.

Limited frost. Very mild in southwest England.

Will more rain mean more flood warnings? Or will Winter have a sting in its tail? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Mostly mild. Drier and chillier for a time mid-month.

Provisional statistics show January 2008 was very mild but not as mild as January 2007.

The mild regime was only briefly punctuated by cold conditions. Across most of the UK the rainfall was above average with some areas having well over double the 1961-190 average.

February is the month when gardens start to show some life and the evenings continue to get lighter. Although February can sometimes be the snowiest month of the year.

For more snow to arrive this month, there needs to be an intrusion of Arctic air, and the weather charts are showing no signs of that.

Monday 4th February 2008 to Sunday 10th February 2008

“Milder with rain at times. Drier in the south.”

An unsettled but generally mild start to the period will be marked by depressions running over the northern half of Britain bringing spells of rain and strong winds.

A ridge on Wednesday will be followed by more Atlantic winds and any rain will become confined to the north by the end of the period as pressure rises in the south.

Monday will see a mix of sunshine and scattered showers. More rain and strong winds are expected overnight which should clear to sunshine and blustery, heavy showers on Tuesday.

Wednesday brings a pronounced but transient ridge which will keep most places dry but still rather windy.

Atlantic winds will dominate through the rest of the week but rain-bearing fronts will get pushed up to Northern Ireland and Scotland as England and Wales become dry with lighter winds. Remaining mild with only a small chance of night frosts.

Monday 11th February 2008 to Sunday 17th February 2008

"Dry and turning chillier in the east."

High pressure is expected to build from the east. This will ensure a dry spell of weather in most places.Mild southerly winds will gradually be replaced by easterlies, drawing in colder air from the near-Continent, with overnight frosts.

However, the far northwest of the UK may be affected by rain-bearing Atlantic fronts and milder southerly winds.

Monday 18th February 2008 to Sunday 2nd March 2008

“Unsettled in all areas.”

High pressure is expected to ease away. This will allow a more unsettled southwesterly air-stream to predominate.

Temperatures are expected to be above average for the time of year and the far northwest may be wetter than normal.

How will spring weather affect your gardens? Find out more next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Dry and cold to start but turning milder and more unsettled in the second half of February.

A large high pressure centred over central Europe will be the dominant force in the first part of the period, keeping a mostly dry southeasterly or easterly airflow across the UK.

After some recent spring-like sunshine there will be more cloud around, for England and Wales, from midweek onwards, bringing a marked drop in temperature.

The risk of night-time frost and fog will be fairly widespread at first, the risk decreasing as more cloud moves in.

Early in the second half of the month the high over the near continent will drift east allowing a fresh, mild, rain bearing southwesterly to develop.

Monday 11 February 2008 to Sunday 17 February 2008

“Turning cloudier and colder.”

High pressure over the near continent will dominate. The resulting east or southeasterly airflow will continue to bring some fine and sunny weather through Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday the breeze will be dragging in a lot of cloud. Night-time frost and fog will be an issue, from midweek onwards, as cloud amount increase; the emphasis will shift from England and Wales to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Very little rainfall is expected, there could be a little drizzle later in the week as cloud thickens up but generally rainfall amounts will be well below average.

Temperatures will show large daily variations, especially early in the period with daytime maxima initially above average. As cloud amount increase over England and Wales temperatures will drop back markedly with cooler conditions spreading into Scotland and Northern Ireland too. Initially there will be plenty of sunshine but the increase in cloud will blot that out later in the week.

Monday 18 February 2008 to Sunday 24 February 2008

“Turning more unsettled.”

The airflow over the UK will switch to a fresh to strong but mild southwesterly, allowing fronts to come back in from the Atlantic.

Those Atlantic fronts will spread rain to most parts of the UK. Above average amounts are expected in Northern Ireland, Wales and southwest England while the southeast of England will probably see below average amounts. Rainfall amounts elsewhere probably close to average.

Sunshine will come and go but most will see average amounts although some western areas are likely to see a lot of cloud.

Day and night temperatures are set to be a little bit above average

Monday 25 February 2008 to Sunday 09 March 2008

“Unsettled.”

A mild west or southwesterly airflow will cover the UK, bringing bands of rain from the Atlantic. Most of the UK can expect rainfall amounts to be close to or above average with well above average rainfall likely in the Northwest. There should be some decent spells of sunshine, most seeing average amounts with daytime temperatures a bit above what you might expect and some mild nights too.

Will you have to dig out your umbrella?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Atlantic air will bring milder conditions and outbreaks of rain.

High pressure has dominated over the last week or so bringing a lot of sunshine but also widespread frosts.

Pressure will soon fall and the centre of the high will drift back into the near continent, allowing the Atlantic influence to return to our shores.

Both day and night time temperatures are expected to rise as milder conditions develop, although there will still be a risk of night time frosts. The chance of rain increases.

Monday 18th February 2008 to Sunday 24th February 2008

“Cold start, mild end.”

Throughout Monday and Tuesday, high pressure continues to dominate. For most of the UK this means cold and frosty nights with winter sunshine by day but some thicker cloud in the west of Scotland. By Wednesday we start to see some changes.

West or southwesterly winds will develop, cloud amounts will increase and rain is likely in the west and south of the UK which means a milder day across the UK.

The risk of frost decreases into Thursday as the westerly winds increase and rain spreads to many northern and western areas. It will be milder on Thursday with most places seeing temperatures heading into double figures.

The mild theme continues into the weekend with westerly winds, which may be strong at times, bringing changeable and unsettled conditions.

Monday 25th February 2008 to Sunday 2nd March 2008

"Mild, breezy and wet."

Pressure continues to fall with a strong west or southwesterly airflow across the UK. Temperatures will generally be around or above average, implying that frost will be less frequent than usual for this time of the year.

There is likely to be more rainfall, Northern Ireland and western Scotland will probably be the wettest. Sunshine amounts will be greatest in sheltered eastern areas but no better than average for the time of year.

Monday 3rd March 2008 to Sunday 16th March 2008

“Remaining unsettled.”

Low pressure will continue to dominate right across the northwest of Europe, the overall flow is relatively slack but strong winds will affect southern areas of the UK at times. In Scotland, fog problems may hinder the rise in daytime temperatures, elsewhere, daytime maxima are likely to be slightly above the average.

Night-time minima are likely to be lower than the norm with frost returning. Showers are likely in many parts, although frontal rain will affect many southern areas. Generally speaking, rainfall amounts will be close to or above average. With broken cloud and showers for many, there should be a little bit more sunshine too.

How mild will the weather get during the second half of March? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Windy and cold.

The month ahead will be dominated by low pressure systems in the North Atlantic and high pressure centred over the Azores. The airflow across the UK will vary a bit but will always have a westerly component to it, mostly west or northwesterly.

The wind will bring a series of weather fronts out of the Atlantic and those in turn will spread rain to many.

Monday 25 February 2008 to Sunday 02 March 2008

“Very windy conditions easing”

A deepening low will be the driving force of our weather over the first part of the week. Monday will be a wet and windy day in Scotland and Northern Ireland the wind and rain spreading to England and Wales later in the day. Tuesday sees the winds over the north of the UK picking up even further, severe gales are likely, gusts of 70mph could cause some problems. There will also be some heavy rain to go with the very strong winds. Elsewhere on Tuesday, windy with some sunshine.

As the main low moves away to Scandinavia on Wednesday it leaves behind a bright and breezy day with just the odd shower in places exposed to the northwesterly wind. Thursday will be wet and windy in both the northwest and the southwest.

By Friday the next Atlantic low will be heading our way keeping bring more unsettled weather for the weekend.

The northern half of the UK, it will feel cold with higher than average rainfall expected.

Monday 03 March 2008 to Sunday 09 March 2008

"More rain"

Low pressure still dominating with a west or northwesterly airflow continuing to bring systems in from the Atlantic. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above average.

Feeling cool or cold with temperatures lower than you might expect, overnight frosts will come and go. In-spite of the expected rainfall there should be some decent spells of sunshine.

Monday 10 March 2008 to Sunday 23 March 2008

“Cool and changeable”

The west or northwesterly airflow continues. Temperatures are expected to be near or below average for most with night-time frosts still an issue. Western Scotland could well be that bit drier than usual while elsewhere rainfall should be close to the norm.

Sunshine amounts near or below average but the southwest of England looks a favoured spot for plenty of sunshine and consequently it should be a little bit warmer.

Will the weather make Mother's Day?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A wintry start to March, but the rest of the month looks fairly mild.

Severe gales brought problems to many parts of the UK last week, but those winds were still blowing in relatively mild air to encourage the spring flowers.

However, with a haze of green showing in the hedgerows and the magnolias coming into bloom, its inevitable that winter will decide to have another go. So, still some hope for the snow enthusiasts, but don't get too excited because it won't last.

Monday 3rd March 2008 to Sunday 9th March 2008

“Wintry showers for most areas at first, then back to mild and windy weather.”

A polar low which spun off the southern tip of Greenland tracks across the southwest of the UK during Monday, with wintry showers widespread for a time. Strong March sunshine makes it more difficult for snow to settle, but hilly areas are prime candidates.

Tuesday sees the snow showers die away, but the cold air stays with us so despite sunny spells it feels cold with a widespread overnight frost.

The weather pattern starts to change by midweek. High pressure builds to the southwest of the UK, feeding in a more Atlantic influence and somewhat milder air.

Low pressure systems are steered to the north of Scotland, bringing a risk of gales here during Wednesday and some rain for a time. The rest of the UK should be largely dry, but rather cloudy and breezy.

Monday 10th March 2008 to Sunday 16th March 2008

"Unsettled in the north, drier in the south."

High pressure will extend from the Azores, forcing low pressure systems to run north over Iceland. This brings a west to northwesterly airflow to the UK, strong at times across the north.

Temperatures should be close to the mid-March average in most areas, perhaps a little above in the north. Rain and sunshine amounts are also likely to be close to normal. So sunny spells alternated with occasional outbreaks of rain are expected.

Monday 17th March 2008 to Sunday 30th March 2008

“Atlantic depressions come a little further south.”

As the Azores high weakens a little, the Atlantic depressions take a more southerly track across Scotland at times.

So northern areas will be unsettled, with strong winds and rain at times, while southern areas stay drier. Temperatures should stay close to average.

Will April bring us warm spring sunshine? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

March is supposed to come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, and there are signs that April will start on a dry and mild note.

Early spring is the time of maximum contrast between a warming mid-Atlantic and the still-frozen Arctic. Weather systems thrive on that temperature contrast, which can produce some of the most powerful storms of the year.

The track of those storms is crucial to the weather experienced across the UK, and it looks as if the jet stream will be steering the depressions our way during the first part of the forecast period, with things settling down gradually from mid-month.

Monday 10th March 2008 to Sunday 16th March 2008

“Stormy at times, with outbreaks of rain and hill snow.”

The week starts with one of the deepest depressions to cross the UK for some 18 years, bringing severe gales, flooding, heavy rain and hill snow.

Things should quieten down a little on Tuesday, but another stormy depression will race in from the Atlantic during Tuesday night, threatening severe gales and perhaps again some coastal flooding as the winds coincide with high spring tides.

The mobile westerly pattern is expected to continue from midweek onwards, with brisk winds and occasional outbreaks of rain and hill snow, but also some drier and brighter spells. Southern areas are likely to see some more prolonged spells of rain later in the week, while northern areas have a mix of sunny spells and showers.

It will feel on the chilly side, especially in the north, with some overnight frost where winds ease and skies clear overnight.

Monday 17th March 2008 to Sunday 23rd March 2008

"North to northwesterly winds keep a chill in the air."

Winds are expected to settle in the north or northwest during the first part of the week, bringing a mix of bright spells and scattered showers, which will be wintry over hills. Some overnight frost is likely.

There is a suggestion that things may become more changeable later in the week, with some rain and a gradual rise in temperature, but confidence in this change is fairly low.

Monday 24th March 2008 to Sunday 6th April 2008

“Spring may get into its stride, as temperatures start to rise.”

Southwesterly winds start to predominate, bringing milder air across the UK so temperatures are expected to rise, becoming well above average at times.

Low pressure systems are likely to bring occasional spells of rain, but there should be some pleasant spring sunshine at times too.

April showers or spring sunshine? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Feeling more like winter!

Easter is calculated as the first Sunday after the first full moon following the Spring Equinox. If Easter is early, as it is this year, there is a good chance that some parts of the country will get snow. You may be surprised to hear that it is more likely to snow at Easter than at Christmas.

Easter 1-3rd April 1983 was the snowiest Easter, with Scotland, the Midlands and Kent getting 10cm of snow.

The Easter period this year is going to be characterised by a cold Arctic wind which could bring snow to rival 1983. Once the cold airflow arrives the computer models suggest the cold air could linger well into April.

Monday 17th March 2008 to Sunday 23rd March 2008

“Blasts of cold air and some snow later.”

The start of the week shows high pressure centred to the west or northwest of the United Kingdom, establishing a cold northerly airflow over all areas. Apart from a few showers near northern and eastern coasts, wintry at times, it will be dry with some sunshine.

Following the heavy rain over the weekend, this should allow the river levels to fall. It will be cold by day though with night frosts in many areas.

On Wednesday night and Thursday a depression will run to the northeast of Scotland as the high pressure area declines. Strengthening winds will sweep rain southwards, though the rain may not be too significant.

The strong cold northerly airflow that follows on Good Friday and continues through the rest of Easter will be more significant. Bands of showers will affect many areas and the showers are expected to turn more and more to snow and not just over northern hills!

Monday 24th March 2008 to Sunday 30th March 2008

"Remaining cold."

High pressure over the Azores and depressions passing over or to the north of Scotland will maintain the north to northwesterly airflow.

Temperatures will be below average with the risk of overnight frosts. Bands of rain will cross the country at times with the risk of further snow. The driest and brightest weather is expected to be in the southwest.

Monday 31st March 2008 to Sunday 13th April 2008

“Cool but less windy.”

Winds will generally favour a north to northwesterly bringing cool conditions with the risk of frost. Temperatures below average, well below in Scotland. Wettest conditions may be in the southeast.

Will the temperatures spring upwards?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A cold start to the period and remaining unsettled with a wintry flavour.

The relatively mild start to the year has come to an abrupt halt with the recent cold spell. Temperatures and snow amounts have by no means been unusual for the time of year but snowfall, particularly in the south-eastern counties of England, was always bound to catch the eye.

Snow at Easter has happened on a number of occasions in recent years. Easter is something of a moveable feast in the calendar but the Easters of 1990 and 1983 are but two of the more recent years which were marked by significant snowfall.

As the headline suggests, the outlook for the month ahead dashes hopes of a prolonged, settled spell of weather. Whatever climate change may be throwing at us, March hasn't lost some of its age-old characteristics.

Monday 24th March 2008 to Sunday 30th March 2008

“Cold start to a changeable week.”

Eastern areas will maintain the cold, northerly airstream with the prospect of further wintry showers across northern and eastern Scotland. Away from exposed eastern coasts, inland areas of Scotland and England will enjoy some pleasant sunshine.

Further to the west, milder air will try to edge in from the Atlantic but the transition will be a slow one.

By midweek, milder air behind an occluded front, will begin to swing across much of southern Britain and then gradually work its way further north. Temperatures in the north will still be below the seasonal norm, both by day and by night. Gardeners take note!

By the latter part of the week, wet and windy conditions will be widespread as a major area of low pressure approaches the west of the British Isles. At least by this stage, temperatures will have returned to double figures across southern Britain.

Monday 31st March 2008 to Sunday 6th April 2008

"Staying unsettled."

South-easterlies will be the prevailing airstream across the British Isles. A showery regime over the North Sea will be driven into eastern areas of the British Isles, producing above average rainfall in these parts, particularly the east of Scotland.

The south-easterlies will have the effect of boosting sunshine amounts in both south-west Scotland and Northern Ireland. Eastern coastal areas may struggle for prolonged sunny spells and temperatures may also suffer in these parts.

Monday 7th April 2008 to Sunday 20th April 2008

“Marginally more settled”

Prospects remain mixed for the period with no signs of a prolonged, settled spell. Temperatures may well remain rather depressed in the east but some western areas may be a little above average.

Rainfall amounts may also be a little above average - bad news for those hoping for longer, sunnier evenings after the gloom of winter.

Planning a spring break? Let the next monthly forecast guide you towards the sun.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Milder weather arrives for the start of British Summer Time, but it won't last for the whole of April.

After the sunniest February on record across many parts of the UK, the trend has certainly not continued during March. In fact, temperatures reached in mid-February have not yet been exceeded in March, very unusual when you consider that the days are now longer and the sunshine is becoming stronger all the time.

This has been due to a number of outbreaks of cold northerly winds, which may have pleased the Scottish ski centres, but frustrated gardeners trying to get their growing season underway.

The month will end on a milder note, but colder weather is set to move in during the first week of April.

Monday 31st March 2008 to Sunday 6th April 2008

“An area of low pressure takes charge”

The first part of the week will see areas of low pressure running in from the Atlantic and passing to the north of Scotland. This will bring mild west to southwesterly winds across all parts of the UK, with the chance of gales for a time in the north.

Most places will see some rain, although amounts will be small in the south.

Temperatures will be above average by day, generally between 12 and 15C, with overnight frost unlikely. Winds will become much lighter during the second half of the week, especially across England and Wales, helping with the milder feel to the weather. However, sunshine is likely to be rather limited.

Over the weekend, an area of low pressure will track across the North Sea into Scandinavia, allowing a cold northerly air stream to establish itself over the UK, with a risk of gales in the northeast. It will turn much colder everywhere by Sunday, although the effect will be less marked in the southwest.

Monday 7th April 2008 to Sunday 13th April 2008

"Spring is put on hold again."

Cold northerly winds will continue to blow in across all parts of the UK, keeping temperatures below average.

Showers will be wintry at times, especially in the north where snow is likely to accumulate over the hills. Widespread overnight frosts can be expected.

The cold winds should start to ease by the middle of the week, as a ridge of high pressure begins to build across from the Azores. Daytime temperatures should start to recover, but nights will still be cold.

Monday 14th April 2008 to Sunday 27th April 2008

“Hopes of something warmer as April draws to a close.”

Milder west to southwesterly winds should bring some welcome warmth as temperatures climb back above average and the risk of frost recedes.

There is some suggestion that the driest and brightest weather will be across western areas, with cloudier skies and a greater chance of rain in the east.

Moving into May, can we expect any signs of summer? More next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Cold and unsettled at first but recovering to near normal temperatures from mid-month onwards. Unsettled in the south later.

The average temperature in London for early April is about 12C. On Thursday 3rd and Friday 4th April many places in the UK saw temperatures around 18C. Through the weekend cold northerly winds developed bringing a massive drop in temperature and some snow.

On Sunday the 6th, after a significant snow event, by late afternoon the temperature at London weather centre had risen to just 5.7C. It was a cold day right across the UK with well below average temperatures. The wintry and cold weather looks set to continue, gradually becoming less cold later in the week.

Monday 7th April 2008 to Sunday 13th April 2008

“Cold and unsettled”

Low pressure over the North Sea will keep a cold north to northwesterly airflow across the UK. Further wintry showers are forecast for many with more persistent rain, sleet and hill snow in the northwest. From Wednesday into Thursday we should begin to lose the cold northerly airstream and replace it with a west to southwesterly as a low develops to the west of Ireland.

As that low develops temperatures will rise a touch but will generally remain well below average with overnight frosts. Rainfall amounts will probably be greater than average for most of the UK especially in the northeast of Scotland.

In spite of the wintry weather, sunshine amounts should be at least average, if not, better than.

Monday 14th April 2008 to Sunday 20th April 2008

"Temperatures closer to normal"

A weak ridge of high pressure will bring light westerly winds to the UK. Temperatures should recover into the normal to above normal category, however, more eastern parts of the UK are still looking at some colder than average nights.

The southeast of England could well see more than its fair share of rain, while most other areas will be close to expectations, except maybe in the northwest of Scotland where it could be quite dry. Most places will see normal amounts of sunshine for this time of year.

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Monday 21st April 2008 to Sunday 4th May 2008

“Turning more unsettled”

The general pattern looks slightly cyclonic which means there is a bias towards more unsettled weather. England and Wales will probably see temperatures close to or just below the norm with above average rainfall.

Northern Ireland will probably be wetter and warmer than average while in Scotland it could well be much warmer and drier.

Will it feel more like spring as we head further into May? Find out next week.

[Stuart]

Seasonal trend set to continue.

History doesn't relate quite when the phrase April showers was first coined. It has certainly been given plenty of airings by my broadcasting colleagues in the past week. This particular run of weather looks as though it is coming to an end. What will remain, however, is the generally unsettled look to the weather across the British Isles in the next month.

As is often the case, the bulk of the unsettled weather will affect the northwest of the British Isles as Atlantic lows track close by. Any prolonged spells of drier and warmer weather will develop as ridges of high pressure extend from the Azores high.

Average temperatures have rarely been exceeded for any length of time in the past month and there is little hope of a change in the next four weeks for northern and western Britain. Daytime maxima at this time of year should touch double figures in all areas, with 14C the average mark in the south.

Monday 14th April 2008 to Sunday 20th April 2008

“Cool and unsettled”

The recent showery pattern continues into the early part of the week. Any drier weather will be short-lived as another band of rain, with snow on higher ground, tracks from Scotland towards East Anglia early in the period.

Showers will develop across northern Britain, some of these again turning wintry on high ground. A ridge will settle conditions by midweek before Atlantic fronts slide into southern and western areas by Thursday.

Temperatures will be below the seasonal norm for much of the week. The cool, northwesterly will suppress them at first. Clear skies and night frost midweek are forecast and then a brisk easterly across a relatively cold North Sea in the second half of the week will keep daytime highs to around 10-11C.

Sun seekers will have to dodge the showers in the first part of the week. Wednesday's high will brighten skies away from the east coast but sunshine will be limited to sheltered western areas come Thursday as the easterly sets in.

Monday 21st April 2008 to Sunday 27th April 2008

"More rain and showers bring unsettled April to a close"

As low pressure systems track close to the northwest of the British Isles, so associated fronts will bring spells of wet and windy weather to most areas. As is often the case, showery conditions will follow on. Any drier and brighter weather will be found across East Anglia and the southeast of England.

Temperatures will again struggle to reach the average mark with only brighter spots in the southeast likely to be warm for any length of time. Sunshine amounts are also likely to be disappointing, given that rainfall amounts will be average or slightly above average.

Monday 28th April 2008 to Sunday 11th May 2008

“Turning more unsettled”

High pressure may build across southern England and Wales to provide some signs of drier and warmer weather. The high will force lows and associated fronts north to bring more unsettled weather to Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England.

Spot the first signs of decent weather here as the forecast pushes towards June.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

A drier warmer spell of weather into next weekend before the unsettled spell returns.

April has so far lived up to its reputation of being a showery month, the recent showers were driven by a succession of low pressures. Last week also saw the onset of an easterly wind - as folk lore says - "A wind from the east is no good to man nor beast". How true, it was a nagging wind which seemed to blow straight through you.

Recently I've heard reference to April 2007 many times, which if you don't remember saw record breaking warmth and sunshine. A perfect example of our fickle British weather.

Monday 21st April 2008 to Sunday 27th April 2008

“Becoming warmer in time for the weekend”

High pressure will start the week across Northern Britain with low pressure to the south. However, by Friday the opposite will be true with high pressure settling in the south and low pressure returning to the north.

This will clearly be a week of changing weather. The east wind will persist on Monday with most of the rain falling in southern parts of England and Wales. After some morning mist northern areas will see the best of the sunshine.

Tuesday looks like a quiet day with very little rain and bright or sunny spells developing. Then rain will spread east into Wednesday, it will be a slow moving band of rain and is likely to be significant in parts. April showers will follow into the afternoon and these will persist into Thursday for many areas.

From Friday onwards the high pressure brings drier, sunnier weather to southern parts but only briefly with a risk of a breakdown during the weekend. The northwest however may stay rather showery.

Temperatures by night will remain above freezing and will creep up by day. Monday is likely to begin with average temperatures, which, at this time of year are around 10C in northern Scotland to 14C on the south coast of England.

Midweek will see temperatures a few degrees above these, so it will feel warmer. Then for Friday and for the weekend it is expected to become warmer still in the southeast, where some places may reach 20C.

Monday 28th April 2008 to Sunday 4th May 2008

"Cool unsettled weather makes a return"

After the warmth of the weekend, the arrival of thundery showers are likely to bring the fine spell in southern Britain to an abrupt end. Instead the cooler showery weather tied in with low pressure further northwest across the UK will flood southwards to start the new week.

That will set the trend until the following weekend, with sunshine between the showers of course but these showers look set to continue into the start of May.

At the same time the winds will become more north or northwesterly once again, bringing a chilly feel similar to conditions felt during mid-April. Therefore, temperatures will drop significantly back to near normal or even below. Gardeners beware, frost may well return at night, especially in the north.

Monday 5th May 2008 to Sunday 18th May 2008

“Still no sign of any prolonged warm and dry weather”

With low pressure likely well into the middle of May, the showery theme will continue. Rainfall will therefore be around average for May as will sunshine amounts. Temperatures may well recover a little with less likelihood of night time frosts. At times with light winds near the centre of the low and sunshine it will probably feel quite warm outside the showers.

That will set the trend until the following weekend, with sunshine between the showers of course but these showers look set to continue into the start of May.

Will the end of May Bank Holiday bring a change in conditions, find out more next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml