BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

A predominantly settled and dry spell with temperatures above average, gradually turning more unsettled for the second half of the month.

High pressure continues to dominate the weather across the United Kingdom for the first couple of weeks of April, keeping the often quoted "April showers" at bay.

The centre of the anticyclone will drift from day to day introducing variation in cloud amounts from one day to the next, but overall the picture is one of below average rainfall and above average temperatures.

The weather will turn more unsettled during the second half of the month. Increased amounts of cloud and outbreaks of rain will return temperatures to nearer the seasonal average. The average daytime high for April is 12 or 13 Celsius, with overnight lows typically dipping to 4 or 5C.

Rainfall totals are in the 50mm range (around 2 inches), falling over 13 or 14 days. These conditions may well be 'average' but I still think they may come as a shock to the system after such a buoyant start to Spring.

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th April 2007

“Very settled. Dry with sunny spells and rather warm.”

There is little shift forecast in the synoptic pattern across the UK for the week ahead - high pressure is with us and it's here to stay.

During the early part of the week weather fronts will run into the northern fringe of the high and bring increased amounts of cloud to Northern Ireland and Scotland, but rainfall will be sparse. The second half of the week looks brighter and clearer in the north. Temperatures will be above average, peaking in high teens in eastern Scotland.

England and Wales will continue dry with plenty of sunshine, although patchy mist and fog will form by night to give murky starts for some.

The coasts of northwest England, Wales and southern England may be affected by low cloud drifting in from sea at times, turning coastal areas rather cool and gloomy.

Daytime temperatures will be well above average, reaching the high teens or even low twenties in the best of the sunshine. Gardeners beware by night however - patchy ground frosts are still possible.

Monday 16th April to Sunday 22nd April 2007

“Staying settled for many. ”

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather across the United Kingdom for the majority of the week, so for most people the weather will tend to be settled. Some of the sunniest weather and perhaps the warmest is expected to be in the southeast.

As the anticyclone drifts south-westwards towards the end of the week, the weather may turn a little more unsettled for western Scotland with rain at times, but eastern parts of Scotland will be sunnier and drier in comparison.

Monday 23rd April to Sunday 6th May

“Turning more unsettled and a little cooler. ”

The weather is likely to become much more unsettled to end the month as an unsettled south-westerly airflow become established and temperatures are likely to return to the seasonal average compared with the mild spell of late.

It will be rather cloudy at times with spells of rain, especially for southwest England, Wales, Northern Ireland and western Scotland. Eastern parts of the UK will also see some rain at times.

Will we get another fair Bank Holiday? Take a look a the May Day prospects next week…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Turning cooler and more unsettled for a time - warm again as we head into May.

What a week - and what a weekend! Temperatures really have been exceptional for April with highs running into the mid-twenties recently. Even during July and August, temperatures range from 18 to 20 Celsius across the UK, so seeing highs of 25 or 26 degrees really is quite unusual.

In April 1949, temperatures soared to 29.4 Celsius at Camden Square in London, which is the highest known April temperature across the UK.

Of course 2003 gave us our highest UK temperatures ever and the April of that year was exceptionally warm. On the 16th April, Wolverhampton in the West Midlands recorded 27.3 Celsius, Wisley in Surrey reached 27.1 Celsius and the Cardiff Met Office recorded temperatures of 26.9 Celsius! It also reached 26.7 degrees in the Scottish Borders, some 17 degrees above the monthly average of 9.3 degrees!

With weekend temperatures as high as they have been, this has certainly been a very warm April indeed, and although it's looking a little cooler this week, the temperatures will still be considerably above the norm for the time being.

Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd April 2007

“Turning cooler but still largely dry.”

A cold front completes its passage southwards on Monday, displacing the unusually warm air. Further fronts will bring increasingly cool air from the north later in the week - but little rain is expected, especially in the south.

Tuesday promises to be another dry day apart from a few showers in the north of Scotland. Although the weather will not be as warm as it has been recently, it will still be quite pleasant.

Midweek sees more fine weather for the south of the UK but it will turn wet and windy for a time across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

On Thursday, the wet and windy conditions will spread south across England and Wales. Much of the rain will die out, but the front will bring particularly chilly air to the north. Indeed, showers across Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn quite wintry.

As the week comes to an end the showers will largely die out. High pressure means much of the UK will have a fine weekend. Pleasant by day, with highs of 12 to 16 Celsius, but gardeners should watch out for some frosty nights.

By Sunday, low pressure and fronts from the Atlantic will herald a change in the weather.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th April 2007

“Low pressure returns - turning wetter.”

The week brings a more unsettled feel to the weather and the risk of rain increases as pressure falls through the week. Temperatures are likely to be average for most areas, although perhaps Scotland will experience below average conditions.

We can expect a fair amount of rain across the board (at long last) during this week, which will help to replenish the ground and reservoirs.

Monday 30th April to Sunday 13th May

“More settled, feeling warmer.”

The unsettled spell will be rather short lived. As May approaches and the high pressure comes in from the Azores, things will settle down. Temperatures will again be far higher than the average. The rise in temperature may well spark off some heavy showers or thunderstorms, so there is still the local risk of high rainfall in some areas.

It has felt like summer for many and it is barely spring, will temperatures heat up even more? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

Edited April 16, 2007 by Stuart H

[Stuart]

Turning cooler and more unsettled for a time, but warm again into May.

It has been another warm week which, I am sure, was most certainly felt on Sunday for those taking part in the London Marathon. A rather close feel added to the discomfort for many battling the gruelling course - and it was NOT the ideal weather to take part wearing a costume!

So if you are left wondering whether we should expect wet or warm weather over the next few weeks, read on to find out more…

Monday 23rd to Sunday 29th April 2007

“Becoming more unsettled with spells of rain. ”

A front works its way eastwards on Monday, bringing some significant rainfall for many - but not in the southeast. It will be an increasingly windy day too, especially so in the northwest.

Tuesday promises to be a fairly quiet day for eastern areas, there will be patchy rain in places, but much of eastern England will remain dry.

More cloud and rain arrives on Wednesday for all areas - and the wind picks up again.

By Thursday, the high pressure begins to build again from the Atlantic, bringing sunshine to much of northern Britain and slowly pushing the rain into southern England and Wales. This weather system then pushes northwards again so the rain will largely die out in eastern areas by Friday.

Into the weekend, we can expect a fair amount of cloud with rain likely for most areas - especially towards the southwest. The best of the sunshine will be in the north.

Temperatures throughout the week remain on the warm side, especially in those areas which escape the rain.

Monday 29th April to Sunday 6th May 2007

“Low pressure returns - rain for most.”

The week brings a more unsettled feel to the weather and the risk of rain increases as pressure falls. Temperatures are likely to be above average for most areas largely due to the southwesterly wind feeding in mild, moist air from the Atlantic.

We can expect a generous amount of rain across the UK during this week, although things should start to settle down towards the weekend.

Monday 6th April to Sunday 20th May

“More settled, feeling warmer.”

It appears that the unsettled spell will be rather short lived. As May approaches, so the high pressure will begin to build in from the Azores and things will settle down again, with temperatures becoming far higher than the average. This heat may well spark off some heavy showers or thunderstorms, so there is still the local risk of some high rainfall amounts - but some areas may not see much at all.

It's been so dry in England and Wales - will we see any more rain in these areas?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

settled month ahead. April 2007 was the warmest April ever - based on the Central England Temperature (CET) records, a series of observations dating back to 1659. Folklore suggests that at this time of year we often get 'April showers', but yet this April has been remarkably dry as well.

For the month of May, it looks like pressure will tend to be high. Below average rainfall quantities are likely to continue, whilst temperatures and sunshine amounts are likely to feel above normal for the time of year.

The dry, sunny and warm weather of April looks set to continue well into May.

Monday 30th April to Sunday 6th May 2007

“Windy at first - dry and sunny ”

The week starts with a rather bracing easterly wind, which will make it feel a lot cooler. However, temperatures will still remain several degrees above average. A few showers will grace Devon and Cornwall and perhaps Pembrokeshire too on Monday, but after that, rain looks set to stay away for the rest of the week.

As the week progresses, daytime temperatures will hold fairly steady at around the 20 Celsius mark and as the winds will ease off it will feel warmer than at the beginning of the week.

Areas from northeast England up into eastern Scotland are likely to become foggy by night - on the east coast it could stay rather grey and dank. Elsewhere across the UK there will be a lot of sunshine.

Although one or two showers may arrive over the weekend in northern Britain, it's going to be a warm, dry and sunny week just about everywhere (although it will still be chillly overnight in many areas).

Monday 7th May to Sunday 13th May 2007

“Temperatures above seasonal average”

The Azores High is expected to build across western Europe bringing continued, generally settled weather to the United Kingdom. Rainfall amount may be a little below average with spells of dry weather for many parts.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above the seasonal average for many places, but perhaps a little closer to average values with cloudy conditions in northwest Scotland. Winds will be mostly light and variable.

Monday 14th May to Sunday 27th May

“Settled weather continues.”

The Azores high is likely to remain a strong influence on the weather across the United Kingdom for this period. There will be spells of dry and sunny weather with temperatures well above the seasonal norms for much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Rainfall is likely to be below average for May.

Will the sunshine last? Find out next week!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Nick H]

Monday 7th May to Sunday 13th May 2007

“Temperatures above seasonal averageâ€

The Azores High is expected to build across western Europe bringing continued, generally settled weather to the United Kingdom. Rainfall amount may be a little below average with spells of dry weather for many parts.

Temperatures are expected to remain well above the seasonal average for many places, but perhaps a little closer to average values with cloudy conditions in northwest Scotland. Winds will be mostly light and variable.

Well, a bum forecast if ever there was one. I see Mr Fox has gone off to AlJazeera but the replacement has not fared much better. There were signs of this unsettled pattern developing even last Monday, I've no idea why Ms Lacey went for this one.

Edited May 7, 2007 by Nick H

[Stuart]

A settled month ahead.

It appears as though the extended dry spell has finally come to an end. April was statistically the warmest month on record with many areas receiving almost no rainfall during the whole month. For more information see our Year in Review.

Although the Easter weekend was an exception, it seems there is nothing else more likely to bring rain than a bank holiday weekend, with the arrival of rain for many areas on Sunday.

The week ahead looks rather unsettled and I am hoping the much needed rain will be welcomed by many - especially the gardeners who have watched the grass and plants turn brown and crispy recently. But how long will the unsettled spell last?

Monday 07th May 2007 to Sunday 13th May 2007

“Windy with rain at times.”

Low pressure to the north of the UK will ensure a broadly westerly wind - allowing the more typical spring time pattern of sunshine, showers and some longer spells of rain. It remains mild for most, although temperatures are likely to stay low across Scotland and Northern Ireland towards the end of the week.

The bank holiday started on a cloudy and wet note for much of southern Britain, with scattered showers elsewhere. Light sunshine followed for most to end the day.

Further heavy and thundery showers arrived in the west early on Tuesday morning, these move eastwards fairly swiftly. The afternoon looks quieter but still with showers although these will mostly be across Scotland. Southern Britain will be largely dry and sunny by the afternoon, and it stays mild.

Rain arrives later during the day on Wednesday accompanied by a strong wind. The rain should clear on Thursday, leaving sunny spells with showers in the south, with more prolonged rain further north; a north-easterly wind will also make it rather cool in the northwest.

Monday 14th May to Sunday 20th May 2007

“Warm sunshine returns”

The Azores high is expected to move closer to the UK bringing generally settled weather. Temperatures will creep up again and it could become rather warm in sheltered southern and eastern areas.

There will still be some rain at times, especially at the beginning of the week when it will be more unsettled before the high begins to build in and hold back the showers. Sunshine should increase quite markedly as the pressure rises.

Monday 21st May 2007 to Sunday 3rd June 2007

“Warm and sunny end to May”

The Azores high is likely to keep a strong influence over the UK weather for the remainder of the month. Although the wind will remain fairly calm for the most part, it will originate from the mid-Atlantic and so the temperatures will certainly be mild, and may become very warm once again.

High pressure will also keep rain to a minimum and so it is likely that many parts of the UK will remain dry until low pressure can make a come-back.

Will June bring more sunshine, or much needed rain? Find out next week!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

More wet weather at first. Turning drier and brighter next week. Some warm sunshine by early June.

There seems to be no stopping the wet weather at the moment - more rain fell during the first couple of weeks of May than throughout the whole of April. For more information on April's weather, see our Year in Review.

If my back garden is anything to go by, the rain has sent plant growth into overdrive. I am sure the farmers will be happy if it keeps on raining, but many of us could do with some drier, warmer weather - you can't please all the people all the time!

However, it is only a matter of time before the pattern changes again.

Monday 14th May 2007 to Sunday 20th May 2007

“Breezy and showery”

The wet weekend has overflowed into the new week. No sooner does one low pressure clear away than another one takes its place. So while Monday sees rain gradually clearing southeast England, more damp weather arrives across Scotland and Northern Ireland later in the day.

There follows a succession of weather fronts from the northwest - meaning cool, breezy and unsettled weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland; with Wednesday looking particularly damp - and more rain expected by the weekend. The winds will make it feel colder, and some snow could arrive over the mountain-tops.

Further south, these fronts will weaken as they stagger across England and Wales. A damp start to the week will gradually be replaced by drier conditions. Fewer showers and increasing amounts of sunshine look likely by the weekend as high pressure tries to make a foothold across the south. The stiff breeze will keep it cool, with temperatures likely to remain in the teens.

Monday 21st May to Sunday 27th May 2007

“Warm sunshine returns”

High pressure will gradually extend its influence, bringing brighter and warmer weather for many. The winds will feel lighter and temperatures will begin to venture into the low 20's Celsius.

Furthest from the high pressure, the north and west of Scotland will still be affected by weather fronts, so the prospect of cooler and damper weather will remain.

Monday 28th May 2007 to Sunday 10th June 2007

“Summer sunshine”

High pressure brings a brighter and warmer start to June. Again the far northwest may be cloudier with a little rain. As humidity rises further south, there is the chance of a few summer thunderstorms to interrupt the dry weather

Will the weather become more settled for the Whitsun Holiday?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Becoming warmer and more settled.

More showers are expected this week. However, these will definitely become fewer and further between as the Azores high starts to build in - bringing us our typical summer weather conditions. So a settled weather pattern is set to return very soon.

Temperatures of late have been typical of May, around 13 - 16 Celsius on average across the UK, perhaps even on the warm side for late spring in some areas. But increased levels of humidity could threaten a few thunderstorms, so read on to see if you could be on the receiving end of one of those!

Monday 21st May 2007 to Sunday 27th May 2007

“Showery start, becoming warmer”

For the last full week of spring (the Met Office take the 1st June to be the start of the summer forecasting season) it looks as though the typical mix of sunshine and showers will continue. For southern England on Monday - clouds and some rain will arrive from northern France.

Elsewhere, it should be dry with sunny spells, becoming pleasantly warm after a chilly morning. Strong winds and rain will creep into the far northwest of Scotland by the end of the day.

By Tuesday, England and Wales will be dry and sunny. Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a damp start to the day but the afternoon will be drier and brighter.

Scotland and Northern Ireland stay unsettled on Wednesday with some cloud and patchy light rain. Pressure continues to rise over England and Wales, giving another dry, sunny and warm day.

More cloud and some rain is forecast in the northwest on Thursday and Friday. But southern areas will be mostly sunny and very warm - as temperatures creep up to the 25 Celsius level, thunderstorms are increasingly likely, especially on Friday.

Over the weekend it looks as though the thunder in the south extends its influence, which will mean a rather unsettled few days with further showers and also some brighter or sunny interludes. However, it will remain windy, so it won't feel as warm as you might expect - of course, with a Bank Holiday coming on the Monday, you can probably lay your bets now for what sort of weather we can expect…

Monday 28th May to Sunday 3rd June 2007

“High pressure builds”

It will be an unsettled, pretty windy start to the week, with further showers but by midweek onwards, the Azores High extends a ridge of high pressure across the UK. This will bring more settled conditions with much lighter winds.

The driest weather will be in southern Britain, closest to the high pressure. On the whole we can all expect to see more sunshine than we would usually for early June. Many places will stay dry for the rest of the week and temperatures across the UK will also climb - it will become a warm week everywhere, with temperatures well above the June average of 18 degrees in the south and west.

With the Epsom Derby taking place on the Saturday, it seems that the racing weather could be very warm with lots of sunshine.

Monday 4th to Sunday 17th June 2007

“Staying settled”

The high pressure looks set to hang around, keeping things generally settled with light winds. Perhaps the pressure won't be quite as high as the previous week and temperatures will be closer to average, but it should be a pleasant and bright few weeks nonetheless. However, if your garden starts to get parched, it doesn't look as though there will be much rain to bring it into bloom.

Mind you, with the tennis taking place at Queen's from the 11th to the 17th, perhaps the dry weather will make for some very fast ball speeds and no interruptions to play!

Will the weather stay settled for the final weeks of June? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Weather-history]

Monday 28th May to Sunday 3rd June 2007

“High pressure builds”

It will be an unsettled, pretty windy start to the week, with further showers but by midweek onwards, the Azores High extends a ridge of high pressure across the UK. This will bring more settled conditions with much lighter winds.

The driest weather will be in southern Britain, closest to the high pressure. On the whole we can all expect to see more sunshine than we would usually for early June. Many places will stay dry for the rest of the week and temperatures across the UK will also climb - it will become a warm week everywhere, with temperatures well above the June average of 18 degrees in the south and west.

With the Epsom Derby taking place on the Saturday, it seems that the racing weather could be very warm with lots of sunshine.

Compare that to the latest by the Met Office for that same period

A combination of Atlantic frontal systems and warm air pushing north over France is expected to lead to a very unsettled, possibly windy, period of weather early in the period. Despite a few bright or sunny spells most places will see rain or showers and some of this could well be heavy and thundery, more especially in the south and east. Following a temporary respite further cloud and rain or showers, interspersed with brighter drier intervals, is likely to spread from the west by mid week continuing the unsettled theme. Temperatures may start off warmer and humid in the SE but quickly fall to become generally near normal and rather cool in places. Temperatures may recover to slightly above normal in S and E late in period.

Not exactly the same. So why the difference if they both work for the same organisation?

My theory is that those BBC forecasts were written last Friday based on what the models were hinting then. It explains Everton's cock-up last October when his forecast was out of date even before it was published.

[Stuart]

Generally unsettled, but becoming warmer

After an exceptionally warm April and with above average temperatures for much of May, the Whitsun weekend certainly turned very chilly for many.

The temperature values for June should range from 15 Celsius in Scotland to nearly 19 Celsius in southern England. Although the weather looks set to become warmer, it won't necessarily be a sunny month ahead - read on to find out more.

Monday 28th May 2007 to Sunday 3rd June 2007

“Cold and wet at first - then sunshine and showers”

Cast not a clout 'til May be out - very true for the start of this particular week! Monday began on a very wet, cold and windy note for much of England and on Tuesday, the rain becomes confined to Scotland, with sunny spells and scattered showers elsewhere. Although the temperatures lift by a few degrees, it will still feel colder than average.

There could be a touch of frost on Wednesday morning for some and rain returns to much of Scotland and also for south west Britain.

Thursday and Friday look generally unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain, with daytime temperatures returning to the seasonal norm.

The weekend sees a greater chance of sunny spells in the southeast where it should become warmer too, but not without the risk of occasional showers. Other areas of the UK keep the more unsettled theme with further spells of rain and temperatures staying around the average for early June.

Monday 4th to Sunday 10th June 2007

“Warming up, especially in the west”

The Azores high begins to weakly build, bringing more settled and much warmer conditions to the southwest in particular.

A weak northwesterly flow over much of Britain will continue to feed in showers to northwestern areas, although eastern parts could see more persistent rain at times.

On the whole perhaps a fair amount of rain for some, but also becoming rather warm, especially in the southwest where it's likely to remain driest and sunniest.

Monday 11th to Sunday 24th June 2007

“Temperatures back to the seasonal norm”

The Azores High will strengthen but showers will still feed in from the north Atlantic for many areas. Once again, temperatures will be rather warm in the southwest, but closer to the norm elsewhere.

The best of any sunshine will be for sheltered eastern counties, whereas most of the showers are likely to affect northwest England and the Midlands.

A dry May and a rainy June puts the farmer's pipe in tune… Is there more rain on the way for June? Find out next week!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Mostly warm at first, then an unsettled spell mid-month.

For most people, June marks the beginning of summer. The days become increasingly longer, leading up to the longest day of the year on 21st June. It is generally the sunniest month of the year in England and Wales and the sun is also very strong.

However, the energy from the sun can sometimes translate into huge thunderstorms with hail and lightning. Average central England temperatures in June are around 19C with average rainfall amounts varying between 54mm in the southeast to 74mm in the northwest of the UK.

Daily sunshine amounts average about six-and-a-half hours. Although very rare, it is not unheard of for snow to fall in June - proving that the weather can keep us on our toes at any time of the year!

Monday 4th to Sunday 10th June 2007

“A largely dry and warm week”

High pressure to the north and west of the UK means a largely easterly flow will continue. The winds will be lighter in the north but quite brisk at times in the south.

It will become warm in many areas, perhaps even into the hot category in the south. Windward coasts will see nearer normal temperatures.

Much of the week will stay dry although with an increased risk of some showers before the weekend, which will then extend northwards.

Sunshine amounts will generally be above average except in the southwest where they are expected to remain around the seasonal norm.

Monday 11th to Sunday 17th June 2007

“A little cooler with a greater chance of rain”

A cooler northeasterly flow looks set to develop this week bringing temperatures down slightly. There is a greater chance of rainfall with southern parts expected to see slightly higher than average levels.

As a consequence, sunshine amounts are likely to be a little lower than average in the south but slightly above average further north.

Monday 18th to Sunday 1st July 2007

“Becoming warmer again”

The Azores high looks set to build again extending a ridge of high pressure across the UK. Temperatures are expected to be on the warm side especially in northern parts.

Rainfall amounts will probably be around the seasonal average, although it could be slightly drier than normal in the southeast. Average amounts of sunshine are expected.

As festival season draws near, will the wellies be a much needed item?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A change to more unsettled weather with rain or showers for all.

It is not uncommon to see a heat-wave during the month of June. Many people will remember the summer of 1976 when temperatures reached up to 36C (97F). However, there are also many instances of severe weather and heavy rain as well. The sun reaches its highest point this month and therefore packs a real punch.

All that energy coming from the sun can sometimes translate into some hefty thunderstorms - often following a spell of very hot and humid weather. In this outlook for the next four weeks, it doesn't look as though we will see too much of either.

The trend is for slightly cooler weather than of late, although in eastern coastal areas the opposite is true. However, for all of us, things will be rather unsettled with all areas set to see a fair amount of cloud and some rain.

Monday 11th to Sunday 17th June 2007

“More unsettled conditions ”

This week starts with mostly dry, fairly warm and humid weather. Persistent low cloud and mist in eastern areas will continue through Monday and Tuesday with some scattered heavy and possibly thundery showers thrown into the mix.

We start to see a more significant change in the weather on Wednesday across northern Britain as a weather front brings rain down in to Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England followed by a northerly breeze and subsequent drop in temperatures.

By Thursday, the rest of the UK will also start to see a drop in temperatures as an Atlantic low pressure system brings plenty of rain northwards across most parts along with a fresher breeze.

The weather will remain changeable through Friday and the weekend, with further spells of rain or showers likely in most parts and temperatures close to the seasonal average.

Monday 18th to Sunday 24th June 2007

“Warming up in the east”

After a spell of cooler weather in eastern coastal areas, winds will arrive from the west or southwest so the highest temperatures will be in the sheltered east. Areas of low pressure are expected over the north of Scotland at times bringing some rain or showers.

On the whole, southern parts of Britain will stay drier. However, many parts of the UK can expect to see at least some rain at times with the greatest amounts across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. Sunshine amounts are expected to be near average.

Monday 25th to Sunday 8th July 2007

“Becoming drier”

Pressure is expected to rise slightly across the UK which should mean drier conditions for all. Low pressure will remain close to Scotland and Northern Ireland giving some occasional rainfall with temperatures close to or just slightly above the average.

Once again, the warmest weather will be in the east. Rainfall amounts away from the northwest are likely to be around average but there will be parts of East Anglia and the southeast that see below average rainfall.

No major heatwave in sight at the moment, but what will happen in mid-July, find out more next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Unsettled and cool at first, gradually becoming drier and temperatures recovering.

After a week in which heavy rain has caused major disruption across parts of the UK the prospect of further wet weather in the coming week is certainly not a welcome one. However, heavy downpours do seem inevitable across all parts of the UK at some stage in the coming days. Hopefully though they will not be as persistent - resulting in lower cumulative totals and fewer problems.

One of the worst affected areas was the Midlands - many parts recording between 40 and 50mm of rain on Friday. This is the typical total here for the whole of the month of June!

Due to the rain temperatures also struggled. June on average gives us daytime highs of 19C. Overnight lows are typically between 8 and 10C.

June 21st, of course is the Summer solstice and the longest day so we expect our greatest amounts of sunshine too - averaging six hours daily.

Monday 18 June 2007 to Sunday 24 June 2007

“Remaining unsettled with the possibility of some further heavy downpours”

Low pressure will be the driving force for the UK's weather throughout the week ahead - keeping us on distinctly unsettled footing.

England and Wales stand in line for further heavy and thundery rain almost daily. The best chance of a fine day is Friday! The air will remain humid, so when the sun comes out temperatures will climb quickly and reach the low twenties Celsius. However, in the showers they will fall sharply and with blustery winds it may even feel a little chilly.

Scotland and Northern Ireland should escape the worst of the rain Monday - but the remainder of the week looks very wet here with bands of rain and showers sweeping through from the south. Friday may bring something a little drier. Temperatures will be around average - reaching the mid to high teens.

After a couple of frosty nights for northern Scotland last week temperatures will barely fall below double figures overnight for any area of the UK in coming week.

Monday 25 June 2007 to Sunday 01 July 2007

“Rather unsettled and showery, particularly in the west.”

As the Azores high builds to the southwest of the UK we will pick up a westerly influence to our weather. This will make for a rather unsettled regime with scattered showers - particularly in the west.

In the showers temperatures and sunshine amounts will be slightly depressed. Elsewhere values will be around average.

Monday 02 July 2007 to Sunday 15 July 2007

“Becoming more settled”

The Azores high looks set to try to continue pushing northwards across the UK during this period bringing it's settling influence with it. For southern parts this should make for increasingly fine and dry conditions, northern areas may remain with slightly more mixed fortunes .

Soggy strawberry's or slapping on the sunscreen? Will it be a scorcher or a wash out for Wimbledon fortnight?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

Thinking about the weather over the last four or five days, and looking back at this 'Monthly Forecast' a few weeks ago, it really does beg the question - why do they bother?

[Crepuscular Ray]

Thinking about the weather over the last four or five days, and looking back at this 'Monthly Forecast' a few weeks ago, it really does beg the question - why do they bother?

Maybe it's why they won't even put the Countryfile/Landward forecast online: they're too worried that on Friday we might look back on how accurate the forecast for the week was.

[Stuart]

Plenty more rain to come but temperatures should slowly recover.

What unsettled weather we're having! As if heavy rain and flooding wasn't bad enough - now gales have arrived too. Indeed with temperatures more reminiscent of October, it seems that autumn has jumped the queue.

So with the days now getting shorter - should we write off the summer completely? Well it may be too late for a repeat of last year, but there's still plenty of time for drier and warmer weather to make an appearance.

For the weather pattern to change - the low pressure needs to be replaced by high pressure to save the summer.

Monday 25th to Sunday 1st July 2007

“Turning drier but chilly in the wind.”

The low pressure which recently brought mayhem to parts of the UK is clearing away eastwards taking its heavy rain with it. However, there's not much sign of high pressure replacing it.

So although the week looks drier than of late there will still be some showers from time to time.

With the wind still coming from a chilly northwesterly direction, temperatures will be slow to recover. So typically we can expect no more than the mid-teens for much of the week - still a few degrees below normal for the time of year.

As the winds fall light overnight there is a real risk of ground frost later in the week - hard to believe as we approach July.

The month may end with a brief lull - but by Sunday another low pressure system threatens more rain from the west.

Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th July 2007

“New month - same old weather”

Low pressure will make the UK its home again for much of the week, bringing further rain at times for all of us.

This will eventually move to the east of the UK - which means western areas may become drier and brighter by day. However, the nights to be distinctly chilly.

Monday 9th to Sunday 22nd July 2007

“More rain to come”

There is little sign of high pressure making any more than a fleeting visit to our shores. So any dry spells look like being quite short-lived.

Frequent bouts of low pressure will ensure plenty more rain but temperatures should recover for a time at least - we might even reach the mid-twenties at times!

Will the summer finally get started or will Wimbledon 2007 run into its third week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Time is running out for the summer, but the sunshine remains elusive.

After one of the wettest Junes on record and with many areas still struggling to clear the floodwaters, is it too much to hope that July will finally see the arrival of the British summer?

Unfortunately, the weather charts don't paint a pretty picture. The jet stream is a zone of high level winds that rush across the Atlantic, steering the surface weather systems.

At this time of year, the jet stream would normally be blowing to the north of the British Isles, pushing the low pressure areas with their rain towards Iceland or Northern Scandinavia.

Throughout June the jet stream has been much further south, putting the UK in the firing line for the Atlantic depressions. That pattern looks set to continue at least during the first half of July, with just a hint of something more settled later in the month, maybe just in time for the start of the main school holiday season.

Monday 2nd to Sunday 8th July 2007

“The covers will be on and off at Wimbledon.”

Low pressure will be centred to the north of Scotland, but close enough to exert its influence across the whole of the UK.

There is potential for further depressions to be steered in from the Atlantic as the week goes on, so although the forecast is mostly for sunshine and showers in varying degrees, there could be a spell of more persistent rain.

The showers will be quite widespread during the early part of the week, heavy and thundery at times. Some more persistent rain may affect southern areas during Tuesday. A showery Wednesday gives way to a brief drier spell on Thursday.

There is a threat of more widespread wet weather for the end of the week with signs of a more organised area of low pressure cutting a swathe across the middle of the UK. A return to a showery northwesterly then looks likely over the weekend.

It will stay fairly breezy across England and Wales, with the possibility of strong or even gale force winds for a time on Thursday night if the depression arrives as expected.

Temperatures will be mostly a degree or two below the early July average, but it should feel warm in any decent spells of sunshine, especially in the east.

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th July 2007

“More showers - but maybe a little warmer.”

A west to northwesterly airstream will continue to feed in scattered showers, which could still give some very heavy downpours in places, although a weak ridge of high pressure may make showers lighter and more isolated across southern England at times.

There is a hint that temperatures may start to recover across Scotland and Northern Ireland and perhaps even edge above the seasonal average, while staying nearer normal over England and Wales.

Monday 16th to Sunday 29th July 2007

“Could this be the start of summer?”

It is saying something when a return to average figures is reason for celebration, but that's the latest signal for the latter part of July.

Not a heatwave, not completely dry, but some pleasant sunshine at times in most areas so maybe you can drag the barbecue out before it rusts away!

Got a UK holiday booked for late July? Find out next week if you need to pack the wellies

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

There is still time for summer to arrive - but not much sign of it on the horizon.

The reason for the wet weather has been the Jet Stream. This conveyor belt of strong winds, way up in the atmosphere, has steered a series of low pressure systems unusually far-south for this time of year. So instead of hitting Iceland as it would normally, they have cruised across the UK, depositing plenty of rain.

As a result, the 'Azores High', which often visits our shores at this time of year bringing pleasant summer sunshine, has been kept at bay.

So unless the Jet Stream buckles and heads back north again - we may have to get used to more of the same.

Monday 9th to Sunday 15th July 2007

“More rain from the west.”

Cool northwesterly winds will bring further widespread showers at the start of the week - although some sunshine is also expected.

Temperatures will struggle to reach respectability - staying in the mid-to-high teens for most of us, which is a couple of degrees below normal for this time in July. Watch out for some chilly nights too.

Around midweek the next low pressure system will arrive from the Atlantic, bringing more prolonged wet and windy weather across the UK - more frustration if you need to mow that lawn.

Towards the weekend there is a chance that southerly winds will bring warmer weather. However, the heat will bring humidity and with low pressure never far away, any fine weather may not last long. It looks thunder will arrive by Sunday - St Swithin's Day.

Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd July 2007

“Warmer spells - more rain”

Low pressure once again resumes across the UK. So any brighter and warmer spells look like being short-lived. There will be plenty more rain for all of us.

With winds mostly coming from the west or northwest - it looks like staying on the cool side too.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 5th August 2007

“Some sunshine in the south”

The Azores High may at last begin to assert itself in our direction and some southern areas of the UK can expect the weather to be a little drier and warmer - northern areas will be the last to see any improvement, if at all.

Will the weather play ball for the golfers at the British Open?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

There's a relentless look to this wet summer weather. July already looks a write-off, but there's a hint that August will buck the trend.

The mercury hit 26 Celsius on Sunday afternoon in southeast England - a rare event this summer. However, that heat merely served to spark off some heavy thunderstorms, and things soon cooled down again.

Now we're back to square one. It's cool and it's showery. Indeed, not only has the first half of July been wetter than normal, but temperatures across the UK have been around 1 Celsius below the long-term average.

High pressure seems resolutely reluctant to hold sway. Instead, a stream of low pressure systems looks like frustrating the nation's holiday-makers for some time to come. Good news for umbrella salesmen, though.

Monday 16 July to Sunday 22 July 2007

“Yet more showers.”

Low pressure will wander across the UK before settling just to the east of us for much of the week. Clumps of showers will circulate around the low, drifting down across the UK on a cool northwesterly wind.

As the week progresses, the showers will become more focussed across England and Wales, with possibility of some more prolonged rain for a times. Meanwhile Scotland and Northern Ireland can look forward to a drier end to the week, with some welcome sunshine.

Temperatures will remain quite depressed, however, reaching only the high teens by day, and readily falling into single figures when the skies clear overnight.

So it's a cool prospect for the British Open, with still enough of a testing breeze on the Carnoustie Links to challenge golfers.

Monday 23 July to Sunday 29 July 2007

“More rain spreading from the west.”

Any brief ridges of high pressure will be swept away by the further Atlantic low pressure systems, steaming in from the west.

It looks being quite a windy spell of weather too. Indeed some unseasonal gales are not out of the question. However the rain will be interspersed by some bright and breezy weather too. In the sunshine and out of the wind, it might feel quite pleasant, but it will hardly fee like high summer.

Monday 30 July to Sunday 12 August 2007

“High pressure tries to 'nose in' from the Azores.”

There's a danger of promising a false dawn. However it looks like the 'Azores High' will have another attempt at heading our way.

If successful, then southern parts of the UK will be first to benefit from some drier and warmer conditions. However further north, across Scotland and Northern Ireland, any improvement may be slow and relatively short-lived.

Will this huge dark summer cloud finally prove to have a silver lining?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Little sign of an end to the unsettled weather for the next couple of weeks - but August may bring us some summer sunshine.

The weather has certainly dominated the headlines in the past week. Extensive flooding has brought parts of the UK to a standstill and the threat of disruption continues with riverbanks swelling and bursting in some parts.

Parts of the Midlands recorded over a 140mm of rain on Friday - nearly five times the July monthly average of 35mm.

Temperatures have been suppressed in the recent wet spell. The average daytime temperature for July ranges from 18 or 19 degrees across Scotland and Northern Ireland, to the low to mid-twenties for England and Wales.

Monday 23rd to Sunday 19th July 2007

“Remaining unsettled.”

The week is set to start with the worst of the wet weather across southern England, courtesy of low pressure pushing across Biscay into France. Up to 25mm (1 inch) of rain may fall across southeast England.

Low pressure continues to dominate throughout the week ahead. Tuesday should bring less unsettled conditions when a weak ridge will build and allow a brief quieter spell - making it the brightest and driest day this week, with the chance of some isolated showers in eastern areas.

Another low pressure will take hold from the Atlantic bringing a spell of persistent rain on Wednesday, leaving us in a breezy and showery westerly air-stream for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures should still reach around average values but the rain will make it feel cooler.

Monday 30th July to Sunday 5th August 2007

“Further showers”

This week offers little sign of improvement in our weather - a westerly flow keeps its hold across the country. This means more showers - not good news!

There may be some sunny periods between the showers - which could bring an increase in temperatures but generally they will remain around average.

Monday 6th to Sunday 19th August 2007

“Sign of settled spells”

Finally it looks likes the bearer of summer weather for the UK, the Azores high, may be heading our way. The high is expected to gradually edge northwards during this period bringing the potential for much anticipated drier and warmer conditions.

Tears or cheers? Will the expected settled spell continue beyond mid-August?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[shuggee]

So that's the fourth week in a row that the monthly forecast has been promising that the Azores High will head our way. I suppose if you keep saying the same thing week in, week out, it might come true eventually http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Improved conditions have appeared in southern Britain, all parts of the UK will get a taste of summer during August.

Rainfall figures across England and Wales have set new records in recent months. The data series stretches back to 1766 and yet it's the period from May to 23rd July that has seen the old record from 1789 smashed. The old figure was 349.1mm, now 387.6mm stands as a provisional total with a few days left to add into the equation.

Many regions have experienced in excess of 200% of their May-July average. Central England has seen 226% of its average with 348.3mm, beating the previous record of 296.9mm set in1879. For those who say that they've never seen anything like it, the figures prove them right.

The eye-catching total within all of these figures is the 120.8mm that fell on 20th July at Pershore College in Worcestershire, sparking the extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales.

Monday 30th July to Sunday 5th August 2007

“Signs of summer in the south.”

High pressure will build across southern parts of the British Isles, giving a chance of consecutive dry and sunny days; something that hasn't been experienced for some time.

Northern Britain will see further fronts moving in from the Atlantic during Tuesday to bring another spell of wet and windy weather. Further fronts will follow on Friday.

Temperatures will push above the seasonal averages in parts of England and Wales. For the first time in several weeks, 23C is possible and it should feel warmer than of late, given that there will be little breeze. Northern Britain will still struggle to make average temperatures with further wet and windy spells.

Rainfall for the flood affected areas in the south of England will, thankfully, be below average as the ridge builds in. Further north, totals may be above average, particularly in the north and west of Scotland.

Welcome sunshine will accompany the drier conditions in the south but amounts will be below average as fronts dominate further north.

Monday 6th July to Sunday 12th August 2007

“High pressure dominates all parts to give a greater chance of drier weather”

High pressure should dominate most areas, pushing across the British Isles from the southwest. This should mean more good news for the flood-affected areas as these areas will see rainfall fall below the seasonal average for the first time in many weeks.

Temperatures may be above the average in Northern Ireland but pretty much average in most other areas. Sunshine should be plentiful too, particularly in East Anglia.

Monday 13th to Sunday 26th August 2007

“High pressure continues to dominate”

Temperatures should be at least average in all areas, with western Scotland and Northern Ireland doing very well. Sunshine will particularly plentiful in Northern Ireland, southwest Scotland, northwest England and north Wales. It could well be another fortnight without exceptional rainfall events!

Will this new improved version of summer continue? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[johnholmes]

re this

Monday 6th July to Sunday 12th August 2007

a VERY VERY long week !

where oh where is the Met O quality control these days.

Its not the first mistake on the Met web site, I've stopped e mailing them about them.

Where or where is their quality control these days.

Edited July 30, 2007 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

sorry I am a bit late with this

Unsettled with spells of rain but also some dry and brighter interludes.

The hot air from the continent that made the first weekend of August the warmest so far this year will seem like a distant memory as low pressure and an Atlantic flow prevail for the next few weeks across Britain.

The Atlantic flow will keep daytime highs close to the seasonal average (19-22C) over the coming month especially when areas of low pressure move through.

The ridge of high pressure that brought much of Britain fine weather last week has now moved into Eastern Europe and a broad area of low pressure has now settled in across Britain.

This upper-low will cause approaching weather systems to drag their heels as they move across the British Isles for the next week or so. There will be spells of dry and bright weather in between the weather systems.

Monday 6th August to Sunday 12th August 2007

“A cooler and more showery week.”

An area of low pressure spiralling across northern Britain will make it a wet start to the week across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

There will be a band of persistent rain that will form around the back of the area of low pressure and this band of rain across Scotland and Northern Ireland will weaken as the low eases into the North sea by mid-week.

The rest of the UK will be cooler with a few showers for the first half of the week. It should be mainly dry across Britain from Wednesday as a ridge of high pressure builds from the south.

Another area of low pressure will spread across Britain on Thursday. This will bring wet weather to western parts of the UK on Thursday and most parts of Friday. This same low could linger into the weekend. The weekend forecast could be showery with a few bright spells.

Temperatures for the week will start of cooler than normal between 16-21C (61-70F) but will slowly recover to near normal (17-22C/ 63-72F) as winds become more westerly by the end of the week.

Monday 13th August to Sunday 19th August 2007

“Unsettled but still dry and bright at times.”

An area of low pressure will again be the dominant feature for the weather across the UK during the week. The close proximity of the low will allow weather systems to move across the British Isles and bring spells of rain and showers at times.

There will also be dry and bright spells. Temperatures for the week will be between 17 and 22C.

Monday 20th August to Sunday 2nd September 2007

“Wet at times but also good dry spells.”

High pressure over the Azores will try from time to time to build back across the UK but the area of Low pressure to the north will still maintain a firm grip on our weather as the month draws to a close. This will into turn bring us quite a selection of weather systems that will visit the UK with wet weather.

We will also have good spells in between these systems of dry and bright weather and temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year.

Will the Azores high build back again and bring us a warm end to Summer? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Some warm sunshine is on the way but it's too late to save this miserable summer.

It may come as some surprise, but last August was also pretty disappointing. The difference was that it was a minor blip in an otherwise sizzling summer of record-breaking temperatures.

This year our best weather was arguably back in April. Since then we have become accustomed to leaden skies, too much rain and too little warmth.

Time is running out but I am clinging to the hope that high pressure will, albeit briefly, cheer us up before we give up on this summer.

Monday 20th August to Sunday 26th August 2007

“Unseasonably wet and windy.”

Low pressure straddles the UK to begin the week. Gradually it will be displaced eastwards, allowing high pressure to drift in from the Atlantic.

From Monday through to Wednesday the low pressure and rain will focus across eastern counties of England. A stiff northerly wind will add to the misery, with temperatures held in the mid-teens.

Elsewhere it will become dry, with the best of any sunshine across western Scotland and Northern Ireland. The brisk wind will slowly ease, but temperatures will struggle to reach above 20 Celsius.

Heading towards the weekend, high pressure will briefly take control. Lighter winds and sunshine should at least bring a warmer feel to most places, although the nights will still be quite cool.

Over the weekend, temperatures may reach the mid-20s Celsius across the south of the UK, with some more sunshine. Atlantic weather fronts further north will keep it breezier and cooler with the risk of rain, especially for northern Scotland.

Monday 27th August to Sunday 2nd September 2007

“Some holiday weather at last.”

High pressure looks like staying in control across much of the UK. This will ensure plenty of dry and pleasantly warm weather, with fairly light winds.

The greatest risk of rain will be furthest from the centre of the high pressure - most likely across the far north of Scotland.

Monday 3rd to Sunday 16th September 2007

“Summer is over - here comes Autumn.”

Gradually the high pressure will loosen its grip, and as children return to school, so the rain-clouds will start to gather again.

The high pressure will be last to retreat from southern areas, so some September warmth may hang on across southern England. However by mid-month, it will be mostly breezy and unsettled again.

Any sign of an 'Indian Summer'? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml