BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

The Autumn weather gets into the groove for the last couple of weeks of October, with rain and gales followed by a chilly start to November.

October and November are traditionally a time of whirling leaves and chilly nights, with the clock change emphasising the shortening days and lengthening nights.

The 21st anniversary of the Great Storm last week passed unnoticed except by meteorologists, as much of the UK enjoyed light winds and sunny skies. However, the end of the week saw the first real Autumn gales arrive, with winds gusting to almost 70mph across parts of Scotland.

The weather looks set to stay in turbulent mode for the early part of the forecast.

Monday 20 October 2008 to Sunday 26 October 2008

“Gales and heavy rain for most areas.”

All the forecast models point towards a very blustery week of weather, with the threat of gales in many areas, and severe gales in the north of the UK.

Blustery showers will be blown along by the strong west to southwesterly winds and these showers will turn wintry over northern hills during Tuesday as colder air digs in for a time. A touch of overnight frost in southern areas is another likely consequence of this chilly air.

By Thursday, an active weather front will push more persistent rain southwards across all areas, accompanied by fairly widespread gales, possibly severe gales in northern and western areas.

Any respite from the rain and gales will probably be brief, as further Atlantic weather systems come sweeping in from the west during the weekend.

Monday 27 October 2008 to Sunday 02 November 2008

"Chilly nights for Trick and Treaters."

It looks as if the unsettled theme will continue across northern parts of the country, with further strong winds and outbreaks of rain. Pressure may build enough to bring some quieter weather to southern areas at times, feeling mild by day in the sunshine, but with a risk of frost under clear skies overnight around Halloween.

Monday 03 November 2008 to Sunday 16 November 2008

“Frosty Bonfire night.”

Southern areas could be in for some classic Bonfire night weather, with an increasing chance of clear and frosty nights as high pressure starts to dominate. Stronger winds are still likely in northern areas, but with less in the way of rain.

Into the twelfth month - any sign of snow? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Cold end to October may stretch to early November.

The month ahead will start on a rather wintry note for late October, with daytime temperatures more akin to what would be expected on a December day!

This early taste of winter isn't expected to last for too long, as normal service resumes in subsequent weeks. Wet and windy weather will be interspersed with quieter spells, along with the chance of night time frosts.

Temperatures will tend to be slightly below average over the next few weeks, which will be welcome news for Scottish ski resorts, as it will help to preserve the early season snow that falls.

Monday 27 October 2008 to Sunday 02 November 2008

“Cold snap set to affect all of the British Isles.”

The levels of certainty about the UK forecast are high in the short term. It's not long into the week, however, before the level of agreement between numerical models from across the world is disappointingly low.

A common theme is for the winds to turn to the north, ushering in the much-vaunted cold spell. It's the other facets of the weather that are the source of some disagreement.

Monday is but a prelude to the main event, with a north-westerly wind only giving a foretaste of things to come. Sunny spells and showers will be the order of the day, with a cooler feel.

During Tuesday, colder, Arctic air will flood across all parts to deliver extensive night frosts and the threat of wintry showers at low levels.

There may also be a significant snow event for the northeast of Scotland, particularly the Northern Isles, but this is one of the events on which opinion is split.

By midweek, a feature running from Iceland towards Northern Ireland, the west of Wales and southwest England is the main cause of concern. There could well be a spell of hill snow as the low pressure moves in.

The additional cloud and change of wind direction may help to lift temperatures slightly in western areas but the week will remain unusually cold further east.

Later in the week, north-easterly winds may provide showers to eastern areas with the best of the sunshine to be found in the west.

Monday 03 November 2008 to Sunday 09 November 2008

"Cold start replaced by something more seasonal - a return to wet and windy weather."

The cold north to north-westerly airstream is expected to be replaced by a more typical westerly weather type.

After a cold start to the week with widespread frosts and wintry showers in the north, conditions are expected to become more typical for early November with spells of wet and windy weather, interspersed by drier and brighter conditions.

The best of any fine and dry weather will be in the south. Rainfall is expected to be close to average in the period with temperatures eventually recovering to near or just below normal after a cold start.

Monday 10 November 2008 to Sunday 23 November 2008

“Southern areas set to see the bulk of the rain as pressures builds in the north.”

Generally westerly winds will continue through the month although pressure may rise across the north of the British Isles, bringing fine days and frosty nights.

This ridge of high pressure in the north may force low pressure areas to bring their wet and windy conditions further south.

Temperatures are expected to be near or below average, particularly in the north. Rainfall should be below average in the north and near average in the south.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Dull, cool and cloudy trend continues.

The month had a variable start, with lying snow at Lerwick and Gravesend seeing a temperature of 22.9C.

Snow then fell widely across England and Wales later on in the month, with some places seeing snowfall settling in October for the first time since 1934.

October concluded with east Devon experiencing flooding and heavy hail showers.

November tends to be more of an either/or sort of month. Still days marked by frost and fog can soon become a distant memory as rain-lashed streets enjoy brief intervals of brighter, chillier weather.

This November looks like it will follow its changeable reputation, with no particular kind of weather dominating.

Monday 03 November 2008 to Sunday 09 November 2008

“Dull, chilly regime set to continue across much of the British Isles.”

An area of low pressure over the Low Countries will dominate the weather for many in the first half of the week.

This will keep an east to north-easterly wind across much of England and Wales.

Northern Ireland and much of Scotland will lie under a weak ridge of high pressure at first, but as the low from the Netherlands recedes Atlantic weather systems will gradually encroach further into the west of the British Isles.

At the same time, some rain will work into eastern parts of Scotland and England.

The generally dull regime of the past few days across England and Wales looks set to continue with sunshine amounts well below the seasonal average.

Sunshine will be more plentiful in Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland until fronts arrive from the Atlantic or cross from the North Sea. Rainfall amounts will be above average in all eastern areas of the British Isles.

Temperatures will be on the low side by day but at least the Midlands and southeast England should achieve above average night temperatures.

By contrast, parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland will start the period with night frosts.

Monday 10 November 2008 to Sunday 16 November 2008

"Dull weather set to continue for much of England and Wales."

Low pressure will remain close to the north and west of the British Isles and the nearest high pressure will build across the near continent.

Temperatures will only be close to the seasonal norm in many areas but may turn out to be a little subdued in both southwest England and the east of Scotland.

Eastern Scotland will be one of the areas likely to see above average rainfall, together with Northern Ireland, the Midlands and some parts of southern England.

It will again be dull for much of England and Wales but a little closer to the average across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Monday 17 November 2008 to Sunday 30 November 2008

“Low pressure maintains an unsettled theme.”

Pressure will remain low to the north of Scotland, keeping many areas in a westerly, Atlantic pattern.

Despite the westerlies, daytime temperatures will be mostly below average.

One might expect above average rainfall in western parts of the British Isles, but western Scotland, Northern Ireland and northwest England may see rainfall totals below the seasonal average.

The north and east of Scotland may turn out to be the most favoured areas for sunshine.

What's in store in the run-up to the holiday season? Get the prospects for early December here.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A fairly stormy start to the period has the potential for damaging winds and some flooding.

This month the airstream is predominantly north-westerly. Consequently the temperatures by day should be at or below average, yet above average by night provided that the wind continues.

Low pressure areas will be the driving force of the north-westerlies. A particularly deep low at the start of the period brings the potential for damaging winds.

Further spells of rain are expected with the accumulating rainfall, bringing the risk of localised flooding. No doubt the number of leaves on the ground will affect how quickly the rain water runs away.

Monday 10 November 2008 to Sunday 16 November 2008

“Only one quiet day.”

There will be a fair covering on the Scottish hills, the Cheviots, Cumbrian Fells and areas above approximately 350m in the north of the UK.

Though this suggests it'll be cold, the wind chill will be the most notable cooling factor. Frost is only a brief visitor on Thursday morning.

The driving force for the weather is a large low pressure area centred at first over Scotland but transferring to Norway by Wednesday. The next depression centres over the Faroe Isles on Friday.

The whole week will be windy for most places, a south-westerly at first but a west to north-westerly wind from Tuesday.

Potentially damaging winds - steady gales with 50 to 70-mph gusts - are possible on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Wednesday should provide a comparatively gentle breeze.

Rain will be present every day except Wednesday and with recent events having saturated the ground in many places, temporary flooding this week seems possible.

Monday 17 November 2008 to Sunday 23 November 2008

"High pressure tries to return."

This week, the driver for the weather is at first low pressure to the east. Consequently we're in a cold and strong north north-westerly wind.

This will bring frequent showers to northern and western areas of the UK and snow on the hills.

From Thursday, a dome of high pressure builds from the Atlantic. This should provide calmer and milder daytime weather for the weekend in southern parts of the UK but overnight frost and fog may appear.

Monday 24 November 2008 to Sunday 07 December 2008

“Cold and showery.”

Showery north-westerly winds continue to dominate. Temperatures are expected to be below the seasonal average and may cause some snow on the hills.

It is possible there will be brief interludes of milder and generally wet weather.

As December looms, will we be doing our shopping in the snow? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Often unsettled with a predominance of westerly or north-westerly winds.

Confidence in the forecast for the coming month isn't 100%, but we could be looking at some cold spells form the end of November.

The rain will be concentrated in the northwest of the UK, were rainfall totals are likely to be higher than average.

The good news is it will be drier than expected in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and southern and eastern areas of England. The not so good news is it will remain largely overcast.

Monday 17 November 2008 to Sunday 23 November 2008

“A mild start and a sharply cold end.”

Monday morning saw sleet, snow and freezing rain in the Highlands.

In contrast south of Cumbria the country is under an area of relatively warm air which has made for a wet and windy start to the week.

By Tuesday the wind direction change to a north-westerly, a colder direction and the wind strengthens, bringing in more cloud.

Wednesday and Thursday sees a cold front moving south bringing rain and making it feel cold.

An arctic chill is the best on offer by Friday and Saturday as the proper cold sets in.

Monday 24 November 2008 to Sunday 30 November 2008

"North-westerly winds return for a time."

No let up the in cold theme with the weather coming from the north-west or north.

We are all likely to see rain as weather fronts push across the country.

Monday 01 December 2008 to Sunday 14 December 2008

“A cold spell in the east likely for the start of December.”

The cold winds from the north-west or north are because an area of high pressure will be centred west of the UK.

As the air around the high pressure flows in a clockwise direction, the air has been cool in the arctic before it pushed its ways from the north to us. This all means it will remain very cold.

Will December be wet and windy rather than cold and snowy? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Typically changeable weather will take us into December.

Snowmen and sledges made an appearance in some parts of the UK over the weekend, as Arctic air provided enough of a chill for some November snowfall.

Eastern areas saw most of it, with a covering reported in parts of Norfolk, Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. The 14cm that fell on Aberdeen was unusually heavy for this time of the year.

The weather is set to turn a little milder in the short term, but there are signs of colder conditions returning in time for the start of December.

Monday 24 November 2008 to Sunday 30 November 2008

“Milder for a time, but a chilly end to the week.”

A gradual change in wind direction will give a different feel to the weather by the middle of the week.

The feed of cold Arctic air will be cut off as a westerly winds develops, bringing a milder airmass from the Atlantic.

Many areas will become rather cloudy, but a few bright or sunny spells are likely, especially to the east of high ground.

Towards the end of the week a frontal system will begin to sink southwards, bringing a spell of rain to most places and allowing somewhat colder air to creep back in from the northwest.

Showers will turn increasingly wintry across northern and western areas and will be hastened through by strong to gale force winds.

Monday 01 December 2008 to Sunday 07 December 2008

"An unsettled start to December"

It looks like an unsettled, rather cold start to December, with weather systems moving south-eastwards across the country with a predominance of west to north-westerly winds.

Temperatures are likely to stay below average, meaning that snow is likely at times, especially across higher ground of northern Britain.

Rain will fall at lower levels, but there should be some good clearer spells between weather systems allowing for some good spells of bright winter sunshine but also some sharp frosts.

Monday 08 December 2008 to Sunday 21 December 2008

“Drier and a little milder.”

Westerly winds and a rise in pressure should produce a trend towards somewhat drier weather in most areas.

Although daytime temperatures should recover to nearer normal, light winds and clearer skies may increase the incidence of overnight frost and perhaps fog across southern areas.

Next week - a first peek at the Christmas week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

A cold spell, with lower than average December temperatures.

It was colder than average with freezing fog in Cumbria and central Scotland this weekend, with accompanying temperatures of -2 degrees.

In fact Glasgow has just had the coldest November day in 23 years.

Admittedly, last week a bit of a Fohn effect brought warmth to Aberdeen which saw temperatures reach 13C. Generally the UK had a bit of relief from the cold thanks to milder air coming from the Atlantic which lingered in southwest England for several days.

The current cause of the cold is a wind from the north. Last week ended with snow showers in Scotland and cold sunshine by day with frosty clear nights for much of the rest of the country. Areas of low pressure just to our south brought some cloud and rain into England.

Monday 01 December 2008 to Sunday 07 December 2008

“A cold start with some snow but mild at the end of the week.”

For the first half of the week, more light snow is likely in highland Scotland but very little elsewhere.

Cold rain started the week in eastern England. On Tuesday and Wednesday a spell of rain, preceded by snow, comes to all but highland Scotland.

The repeat process happens on Thursday, this time it will reach highland Scotland. After these two events, we return to drier weather.

Temperatures at first are much below average especially by day, but will return to normal or slightly above by the week's end. Consequently, frost and windchill will only be a problem for the first half of the week.

Wind becomes stronger for a time from midweek but with rising temperatures the chill will be of less significance.

Monday 08 December 2008 to Sunday 14 December 2008

"Cold northerly breeze."

There is moderate confidence this week of a predominance of north-westerly winds.

This suggests it will be relatively dry - any showers will frequent north-western UK - and relatively cold.

Sunshine should at least reach average amounts but southern England may well be cloudy at times.

Monday 15 December 2008 to Sunday 28 December 2008

“More westerly winds and wet conditions.”

In a traditional run-up to Christmas, the tendency is for the weather to come to us from the west.

There is moderate confidence that this will happen this year, and bring with it widespread rain.

It would also keep temperatures around average which would be too warm for snow in most places.

Next week - what will the forecast be for the New Year?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Is the cold theme coming to an end?

The first week of December has been characterised by cold days and frosty nights with occasional snow.

On the morning of the 3rd the temperature fell to -12.7C at Tulloch Bridge in Highland Scotland. The following day 15-20cm of snow fell over the high ground of northern Britain.

None of these events is particularly unusual, but it does seem a big shift from the average temperature in November.

Average maximum temperatures for early December are roughly 6-8C.

While the wind remains from a northerly point it will stay cold, but there may be an Atlantic influence at the end of the week to bring the very cold theme to an end.

Monday 08 December 2008 to Sunday 14 December 2008

“Staying cold at first. Milder, wetter and windier over the weekend.”

A band of rain will clear away to the south of England and Wales by the end of Monday.

A cold north-westerly wind follows to all areas with wintry showers and a patchy slight frost on Monday night.

The north-westerly airflow will be maintained on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Most places will be dry and sunny, with showers becoming confined to North Sea coasts.

With clear skies in many areas, frosts are expected again on Tuesday and Wednesday night.

On Wednesday night, light rain is forecast for Northern Ireland. This will then creep further east on Thursday with light snow over high ground on Thursday night.

The wedge of cold air should get pushed out of the way during Friday as a westerly wind starts to push rain in.

The weekend then looks generally milder with strong to gale-force Atlantic winds bringing rain, but still a risk of snow in the Scottish mountains.

Monday 15 December 2008 to Sunday 21 December 2008

"Wetter and windier in the north. Cold and drier in the south."

With areas of low pressure running close to Scotland at times, rainfall in the northern half of the UK will be around average.

Higher pressure further south should mean below average rainfall.

Although there is still a windy Atlantic theme, the UK is still on the cold side of the jet stream, so temperature will be near or just below average.

There is a signal for hard frosts at times in south-east England and East Anglia.

Monday 22 December 2008 to Sunday 04 January 2009

“Still a mixture of cold and wet weather - will there be any snow?”

Further areas of low pressure tracking close to Scotland will mean more unsettled and wetter weather for northern and western areas of the UK.

Temperatures are still expected to be close to or a little below average with the risk of overnight frosts.

Christmas is coming - will it be a white one? Watch this space

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Becoming unsettled and milder

Two weeks of cold, frosty and icy weather came to and end over the weekend. Strong Atlantic winds swept heavy rain cross from the west.

16mm of rain fell at Yeovilton (Somerset) in just one hour, so it was no surprise there were reports of flash floods in Somerset and Devon.

The change in weather type over the weekend marks the start of a generally milder spell of weather for the rest of the year.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be near the average of 6-8 Celsius (mid 50s Fahrenheit). Frosts are expected to be much less frequent than they have been.

Some colder days can be expected during this milder spell, but it remains to be seen if these will coincide with the Christmas period.

Monday 15 December 2008 to Sunday 21 December 2008

“Cold start but becoming unsettled and windy.”

Monday is expected to be cold in England and Wales with areas of persistent fog and low cloud, followed by a patchy frost on Monday night.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will turn windy and milder later on Monday with some rain on Tuesday.

The rain will then clear through England and Wales on Tuesday night with a risk of ice on Wednesday morning. Wednesday should then be a fine and sunny day for most places.

Mild, cloudy and windy weather returns on Thursday with rain spreading east. This should then clear away to leave colder day on Friday with heavy snow showers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The weekend sees much milder conditions pushing back in with heavy rain and gales.

Monday 22 December 2008 to Sunday 28 December 2008

"Often windy with bands of rain pushing across from the west."

The forecast for this week suggests near average temperatures but drier than average conditions in eastern Scotland and northeast England.

The possibility of high pressure in the south suggests drier and colder conditions, with the potential for frost over the festive season.

Monday 29 December 2008 to Sunday 11 January 2009

“Staying unsettled with westerly winds.”

It will be an average couple of weeks in terms of temperature, rainfall and sunshine.

Confidence in this forecast is not particularly high, with the unsettled nature of the weather bringing many uncertainties.

Will you be asking Santa to deliver a sledge? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Dry and colder holiday period, more unsettled next year.

As expected, the mild Atlantic air crept across the United Kingdom over the last week and daytime temperatures peaked at 12 Celsius (54F).

Even on the Winter Solstice (21st) the temperature reached 13 Celsius (55F) in Aberdeen, 6 Celsius above the December average.

The next few weeks look very different though. A large area of high pressure developing over Scandinavia will come to dominate the weather in the United Kingdom which will cause a cold easterly wind to cut off the Atlantic influence.

This will mean a lot of dry weather but also a cooling trend. Frosts are expected to be limited because of cloud cover.

The second week of January may see the high pressure retreat to allow a more unsettled west to north-west airflow to become established over the United Kingdom.

Monday 22 December 2008 to Sunday 28 December 2008

“Turning colder.”

It will be a mild start to the week with temperatures still reaching double figures.

There will be some drizzle though most places will be dry as the high pressure becomes established.

A weak front moving over Northern Ireland and Scotland later on Tuesday may temporarily introduce clearer skies. The clearer skies will lead to a touch of frost on Wednesday morning.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are expected to be dry and cloudy for most areas. No sledges will be required but it will be colder with daytime temperatures near the average of 7 Celsius (45F).

On Boxing Day the cloud in England and Wales is expected to break as a strong and much colder continental easterly wind develops.

Over the weekend the cloud is forecast to increase again and thicken to give wintry showers near English Channel and North Sea coasts, though no significant snow is expected.

Monday 29 December 2008 to Sunday 04 January 2009

"Dry and cold."

High pressure looks set to dominate, resulting in the settled and dry but cold weather continuing.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be 2-4 Celsius below the seasonal average for most areas.

At the moment it looks like it will be generally cloudy, but there is every chance of a few sunnier spells. Where the cloud breaks, particularly in the north, there is the risk of frost and fog.

Monday 05 January 2009 to Sunday 18 January 2009

“More unsettled.”

The high pressure is forecast to retreat to the south introducing more unsettled conditions and a cool west to north-west airflow.

Rainfall is expected to be near average and despite the rain and showers, sunshine amounts should be above the seasonal average.

How long will the cold weather last? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Dry and cold.

As expected, Christmas Day was cold and dull with no sign of snow unfortunately. From Boxing Day the forecast became more difficult as the cloud started to break allowing frosts to form.

Over the weekend, afternoon temperatures were no better than 3 Celsius (37F) in many areas. This is some way lower than the seasonal average of 7 Celsius (45F). A bitter easterly wind in southern England only accentuated the cold.

Over the next few weeks the cold theme is set to continue with frosts on most nights.

The cold air is trapped under a huge area of high pressure that dominates the weather across northwest Europe as well as here in the United Kingdom. The exact position of the high will have an impact on the wind direction, which in turn will influence the amount of cloud and frost.

Cold high pressure areas like this are notoriously difficult to budge. There are tentative signs the high pressure area will drift south in weeks 3 and 4 and allow more unsettled weather to break through across the north.

Monday 29 December 2008 to Sunday 04 January 2009

“Cold and mostly dry still.”

The cold weather is expected to continue with a frost on most nights.

At the start of the week a southeasterly breeze will push drier, continental air north across most places. This means that sunshine, and frost, will become more widespread. The risk of fog is also increased.

From midweek the position of the high pressure shifts to the north of Scotland, allowing an easterly breeze to return. This will result in more cloud being dragged in from the North Sea, particularly across eastern areas of the UK.

The weekend is likely to remain cloudy and cold. A stronger northeasterly wind will make it feel colder. The cloud in eastern areas may be thick enough to give a few light showers and these may turn wintry by the end of the weekend.

Monday 05 January 2009 to Sunday 11 January 2009

"Staying cold."

High pressure still dominates, so it will stay cold with night frosts. It will be particularly cold across Scotland and the southern half of England and Wales.

Sunnier skies and frosty conditions are most likely in the west. Eastern areas are expected to see more cloud, and as this thickens there is an increasing risk of wintry showers.

Monday 12 January 2009 to Sunday 25 January 2009

“Cold in the south. Less cold and wetter in the north.”

High pressure is forecast to sink to the south of the UK allowing a more mobile westerly pattern across the north. Northern areas therefore are less likely to have frosts and more likely to have rain at times. Southern parts though should remain cold and dry.

Is the cold weather set to come to an end?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Nick L]

Darren "There is absolutely no chance of snow this week" Bett has issued the latest update, ramping up the "mild" weather, Met Office don't seem to agree. I don't know if I can trust him anymore!

[Stuart]

A change to milder conditions around the middle of the month.

It was a cold start to the new year with temperatures well below average across the UK.

You would expect temperatures to be in the range of 5 or 6C in Northern Scotland to 8 or 9C in southwest England but most places have struggled to about 3 or 4C at best.

Some places have not even done that well, especially in lingering fog.

Cold continental air has been sitting over the UK under an area of high pressure. The cold theme is set to continue for a bit longer but it does look as if a change is on the way.

Westerly winds will eventually return bringing the milder influence of the Atlantic back to our shores.

Monday 05 January 2009 to Sunday 11 January 2009

“Staying cold.”

High pressure will dominate during this period. It will stay cold for most areas with overnight frosts and there will also be some lingering fog. The far north of the UK should see temperatures near normal.

The week started with icy roads and some snow across the southeast of England. It is another cold day on Monday with sunshine for most and a cold wind in the south.

Tuesday will see a breeze, rain, sleet and hill snow affecting Scotland and Northern Ireland. England and Wales will start frosty with some fog but it should be dry with some sunshine.

Frost and fog will be a feature through the middle and latter part of the week. Wednesday will be cloudy with a little rain in places with brighter skies on Thursday after any fog clears.

Friday should be dry for most with early frost and fog. It will be windy in the north of the UK with a little rain.

The weekend forecast is windy conditions in the north of the UK, with some cloud and rain while further south the cold, foggy but settled theme continues.

Monday 12 January 2009 to Sunday 18 January 2009

"Turning milder."

A change is expected as westerly winds are forecast to bring milder air and rain to the UK.

The rain-bearing fronts will affect the northwest of the UK in particular and that's where the heaviest of the rain and the strongest of the winds will be.

Rainfall is expected to be well above average in the north-west. The south-east of the UK can expect brighter skies and lighter winds, there will probably be some rain but no more than you might expect for the time of year.

Temperatures should be close to average for all, both by day and night although there will still be the risk of night-time frosts in places.

Monday 19 January 2009 to Sunday 01 February 2009

“Staying mild.”

West or south-westerly winds will bring a mild end to the month but also some rain. Most of the rain will be in the western half of the UK and it will be a little wetter than average in the far north-west.

Further east there will be less rainfall and more sunshine. Thanks to the south-westerly winds both maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above the seasonal norm.

How is the beginning of February shaping up? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Changeable. Mild, wet and windy spells and some cold interludes.

It was a very cold start to the New Year, with widespread and severe frosts for most parts of the UK. On Saturday 10th January London recorded its coldest day for 12 years with temperatures no better than -1C during the middle part of the day.

At the same time, change was already taking place further north and west. An Atlantic system was moving in bringing heavy rain and strong winds, those winds however will be bringing milder conditions in from the Atlantic. The mild air slowly moved down from the northwest to the southeast.

Average temperatures for the first week in this period range from about 6C in Aberdeen to 9C in Plymouth.

Monday 12 January 2009 to Sunday 18 January 2009

“Changeable.”

It is forecast to be a generally changeable week with low pressure in the Atlantic producing west or south-westerly winds which will bring rain to many areas, especially at the beginning and the end of the week.

During the middle of the week there will be a colder spell with night-time frosts returning.

Temperatures this week will start off slightly above average with many places seeing double figures but those values are unlikely to be seen again this week. Monday is forecast to be around 10C in Aberdeen and 11C in Plymouth.

Temperatures will slip back down to below average values for the middle and latter part of the week. On Thursday for example, it is predicted to be 5C in Glasgow and just 6C in London.

Most places will see some rain this week, some of it heavy at times but rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed the seasonal average.

There will be drier and brighter spells this week but England and Wales will probably not see as much sunshine, while Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably experience a little bit more than the seasonal average.

Monday 19 January 2009 to Sunday 25 January 2009

"Cool and wet."

There will be a brisk west to north-westerly wind blowing across the UK. With temperatures expected to be somewhat below average for all and accompanied by a noticeable wind, the combination will bring a cool feel to things to most areas.

It's also going to be quite wet. Rainfall amounts will probably exceed expectations over most of England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Rainfall in Scotland and the northeast of England is expected to be closer to the seasonal average.

Sunshine amounts are predicted to be generally close to average for the time of year.

Monday 26 January 2009 to Sunday 08 February 2009

“Staying cool and wet.”

Confidence in this part of the forecast is relatively low at this stage, however it does look as if westerly winds will dominate.

Temperatures will probably be on the low side for the southern half of the UK and nearer the seasonal average elsewhere.

There is expected to be quite a bit of rain as well. Most areas can expect more than their fair share although the south-west quadrant will probably be drier than usual.

What does the weather hold for Valentine's Day? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

winds. Unsettled.One of the few Winter storms of the season battered the United Kingdom over the weekend.

Severe gales swept bands of heavy rain across all areas on Saturday. Gusts of 106mph were measured in County Mayo in the afternoon.

As the full force of the storm marched across Northern Ireland several thousand homes were left without power as trees were uprooted and power lines blown down.

The storm was produced by a deep depression that formed in the Atlantic and then tracked to the northwest of Scotland.

Further areas of low pressure (hopefully less intense) will dominate the weather pattern over the next few weeks. This means there will be further bands of rain and possibly some snow.

Winds will be strong at times and come from a west to north-westerly direction. As a result it is likely to remain rather cold for the time of year. Average daytime temperatures are typically 5-7C (41-45F).

Monday 19 January 2009 to Sunday 25 January 2009

“Strong winds. Some rain and snow.”

During Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday areas of low pressure will track to the northwest of Scotland. It will stay rather cold with the risk of frost at night and icy patches.

There will be clear or sunny spells and occasional showers of hail, sleet or snow.

Most of the snow will be over high ground in the north but more organised showers in southern England on Tuesday night may bring a covering of snow over the Salisbury Plain and the Chilterns.

On Thursday, strong winds and rain will push east, preceded by snow for a while from the Midlands northwards.

The wet weather should clear by the end of the week. Friday and the weekend should see temperatures return to the seasonal average.

It looks like it will remain unsettled though with showers or longer spells of rain but fewer snow showers.

Monday 26 January 2009 to Sunday 01 February 2009

"Remaining chilly."

Pressure remains low to the north-west of Scotland suggesting a continuation of a cool north-westerly airflow. Temperatures are expected to be below the seasonal average during the day and overnight.

Winds will be strong at times, particularly in the north-west. Here rainfall will be near normal, but above the seasonal average elsewhere.

Monday 02 February 2009 to Sunday 15 February 2009

“Less windy but still unsettled.”

It is expected that it will be not quite as windy but some spells of cold northerly winds are possible.

Rainfall and sunshine are expected to be near normal in the south but drier and sunnier than average in the north.

Can we expect an early start to spring? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

The most common source of the month ahead's weather is likely to be the Atlantic with a hint of a cold southeast wind later on.

Whilst the coming month brings mainly westerly winds, snow should be a hill only event but later in this period, suggestions of a south-easterly wind may make one think otherwise. The best set-up for snow is a Siberian south-easterly undercutting an active Atlantic frontal system. This is because what falls from the sky starts as snow, then usually melts and hits us as rain, but if you stop it melting by blowing a sub-zero wind through it then it lands as snow.

Monday 26 January 2009 to Sunday 01 February 2009

“Atlantic depressions to the northeast: cool and strong west to northwest winds.”

The semi-permanent low pressure area southeast of Greenland encourages mid-Atlantic weather systems to develop and head our way. We catch two such warm-sector depressions this week. That suggests rain crossing the UK on Tuesday and Friday.

The progress of rain west to east doesn't look smooth. It'll hang around on Wednesday in England and probably last beyond Friday into Saturday. So a wet week with hill snow.

Monday should be bright and mostly dry, Wednesday mostly sunny and Thursday should start fine. Unfortunately, when it rains, the amount of rain is significant and with ground currently water-logged, some flooding seems likely.

Temperatures should be around average (6 to 8C by day, freezing, plus or minus 2C by night). Thursday's daytime temperatures may well approach double figures as the wind is a southerly.

As is usual when the weather is "mobile", the confidence in the forecast is only moderate for detail.

Monday 02 February 2009 to Sunday 08 February 2009

"A low pressure week but with centres sometimes over the UK."

Many would use the word "unsettled" to describe this situation, usually implying wet and windy weather, but if the centre of the depression is over the UK, then winds are light or non-existent.

This will be the case for at least some of this week, bringing the prospect of slow-moving rain bands.

Fog is also likely, possibly freezing and could potentially last all day in places as such types of fog are naturally stubborn to clear.

Sunshine amounts could be quite high, this seems most likely in the northern half of the UK.

Monday 09 February 2009 to Sunday 22 February 2009

“Cold airflow, south-west or south-east.”

Confidence for this week is low but suggestions are that precipitation will focus on eastern England and it'll be colder than average. Frost then sunshine is the likelihood in western UK.

Could there be more snow to come?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Very wintry start to February, with more snow and frost at times for most of the month.

The cold snap of a few weeks ago was dominated by high pressure, which meant that although temperatures were low, there was very little snow.

Now, the cold air is being dragged in by active weather systems which add in the moisture necessary for snow.

The week ahead looks set to bring some of the most disruptive weather thanks to snow across the UK in over 5 years and at the moment this winter as a whole (December through February) is in the running to be the coldest one in over a decade.

Monday 2 February 2009 to Sunday 8 February

“Cold with heavy snow.”

A cold week in prospect with widespread frosts, bitter winds and potentially some very disruptive snowfall.

We start the week in a raw easterly airstream, reaching us all the way from Arctic Russia. Through Monday this will progressively push snow showers to all but the most sheltered western fringes of the UK.

Eastern areas of the UK will be worst affected by the showers, with accumulations up to about 10 inches (25cm) possible in places. The wind will mean a risk of blizzards and drifting but also adds a significant wind chill.

Through the second half of Monday a weather system from northern France starts to extend into the UK and this then brings the potential of yet more heavy falls.

This system will spread right across the UK Monday and into Tuesday producing again the best part of foot of snow in some areas as it does so.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see the falling snow become focused across Scotland and Northern Ireland. England and Wales however are likely to still have lying snow and ice to contend with.

Thursday and Friday are the set to see the wind swing round to a northerly direction, bringing air straight from the Arctic, keeping us all cold and pushing the snow risk back into England and Wales.

Monday 9 February 2009 to Sunday 15 February 2009

"Remaining cold with risk of further snow."

This weeks weather looks set to be dominated by low pressure and winds from the east or northeast.

This factors combined will give cold and unsettled conditions. Eastern areas will face or sleet, maybe even turning to snow at times. Sheltered western areas will be comparatively much drier and brighter.

Day time highs will struggle and the nights promise very sharp frosts.

Monday 16 February 2009 to Sunday 01 March 2009

“Cold with wintry flurries.”

Not a lot of change is predicted in the synoptic set up across the UK for the second half of the month.

Conditions look set to remain cold courtesy of easterly winds and once again unsettled thanks to the continued influence of low pressure areas.

White out or bright out? How hard will winter continue to grip the UK

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[rctonka]

Bring on the trumpets

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've just seen that forecast- not like the BBC to overplay cold weather in a long-range forecast! Still, the general theme of cold with wintry spells does look likely to come off for a large portion of the month at least.

[Rob]

I've just seen that forecast- not like the BBC to overplay cold weather in a long-range forecast! Still, the general theme of cold with wintry spells does look likely to come off for a large portion of the month at least.

i'm so glad that BBC have gone to forecast a cold and snowy feb as its not a hidden thing that they tend to favor mild conditions. Nice to see a proper winter for a change!

[Albion Snowman]

Well, after Darren Bett did the January Monthly Outlook and getting pretty much every detail wrong,im dubious. I really hope it will play out like they are saying though. If it does, it will be a very interesting month and ANOTHER below average CET!

Heres hoping...

[Don]

I have a feeling that this coming Monday's update will be less inspiring than that forecast, but at least the next week looks like staying cold at the moment.

[keithlucky]

Well, after Darren Bett did the January Monthly Outlook and getting pretty much every detail wrong,im dubious. I really hope it will play out like they are saying though. If it does, it will be a very interesting month and ANOTHER below average CET!

Heres hoping...Say goodbye to winter if they say its going to be cold ,they wrong all the time with there monthly outlook!

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Staying cold and unsettled at first. Drier but still cold towards the beginning of March.

The last week was dominated by heavy snow in many parts of the UK.

The snow was the heaviest and most widespread since February 1991. Some places saw as much as 30cm (1ft) of snow with several inches falling elsewhere.

Icy roads were an additional hazard overnight and into the mornings, and transport networks were severely disrupted.

Temperatures were generally well below average, struggling to get more than a few degrees above freezing when normally you would expect them to be in the range of 6C in Aberdeen to 8C in Southampton.

Monday 09 February 2009 to Sunday 15 February 2009

“Cold and frosty.”

On Monday, in the southern half of the UK there will be a combination of strong winds and heavy rain moving in from the south.

The heavy rain and melting snow in southern counties of England will combine to produce a significant flood risk.

Later in the day the rain will turn to snow over the Bristol area, much of Wales and the Midlands and drifting snow is likely with those strong winds. There is the potential for further travel disruption in affected areas.

Elsewhere on Monday, after an icy start, it will be a largely dry but breezy day.

From Tuesday onwards it will be showery with a northerly wind. Most of the showers will be around the coasts, in places exposed to the wind.

With the northerly winds it will be a cold week with widespread and hard frosts likely on most nights.

Rainfall amounts for most will be close to average although it will be drier in western areas.

It will be sunnier in western Scotland than the rest of us could expect to see.

Monday 16 February 2009 to Sunday 22 February 2009

"Staying cold."

Pressure will rise from the west and as a consequence most of the showers will be further east. Some eastern counties could see quite a few showers which will be heavy and wintry at times.

It is forecast to be another cold week with well below average temperatures. Overnight frosts will be widespread and harsh.

It could be quite cloudy for many parts of the UK and as a result sunshine amounts will struggle to get close to normal, but in Scotland it should be that bit brighter.

Monday 23 February 2009 to Sunday 08 March 2009

“Still cold but more settled.”

Pressure will rise over most of the UK and as it does the weather will settle down with fewer showers.

Rainfall amounts are likely to be a bit below the seasonal average for most although the east coast could still be a focal point for the wettest of the weather.

There will be a lot of cloud around so many places will see a little bit less of the sun.

It will remain cold for all of us although temperatures in the southeast may rise a notch or two by the beginning of March.

Will it warm up in mid-March? Find out next week

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml

[Stuart]

Monthly Summary

Mild to begin with but turning colder again before long. The cold spell then looks set to last into the first half of March.

Following on from the heavy snowfall of the previous week, it was the thaw accompanied by heavy rainfall and consequent flooding which made the headlines last week.

In just over 24 hours at the start of the week, the majority of southern England received around 40mm (over an inch and a half) of rain, with the Isles of Scilly topping the table with 63mm.

This volume of water, along with melting snow, resulted in numerous flood warnings being issued and further disruption.

The week also brought us the coldest night of the winter. Aviemore in the Scottish Highlands recorded -18.4C (-1.1F).

Fortunately it looks as though we will have drier and milder conditions in the immediate future.

Monday 16 February 2009 to Sunday 22 February 2009

“A mild start to the week. ”

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday look like being the driest and mildest days of the week for many of us.

There will be variable amounts of cloud around with the best of the sunshine towards southwestern parts of the UK where temperatures are expected to reach as high as 12C.

This, combined with just a light breeze will make it feel pleasantly mild compared to the week just gone.

Night-time frosts will be few and far between. There will be some rainfall at times in Scotland, most of this being in the northwest.

Later on Wednesday, a band of rain will move into the northwest of the UK and move southeastwards overnight and into Thursday. This will be the first significant rainfall of the week to many parts.

The rainband will also bring a clearer and fresher, northwesterly airstream down across the UK. A colder and frostier night is then expected on Thursday.

By Friday, another Atlantic weather system will be preparing to move into the northwest bringing further outbreaks of perhaps heavier rain.

The weekend will then be marked by a change to these more unsettled conditions as low pressure becomes the dominant feature.

It will stay on the colder side with stronger winds and showers. There is an increasing risk of these showers turning to snow in northern areas.

Monday 23 February 2009 to Sunday 01 March 2009

"Staying cold and windy with night frosts."

The weather over this period looks set to stay cold with below average temperatures.

Low pressure centred over Europe and high pressure over the Atlantic will result in a cold north or northeasterly wind across the UK.

There will be showers at times, especially across the north and east, with the best of the sunshine across the west. It will be cold overnight with a risk of ground frost.

Monday 02 March 2009 to Sunday 15 March 2009

“High pressure returns but the chilly weather remains.”

The chilly weather looks set to continue with maximum and minimum temperatures likely to stay below average.

Higher pressure may affect the UK but there is still likely to be some rain or showers at times and fairly cloudy conditions will probably predominate.

The driest conditions look set to be towards the southwest of England. Sunshine amounts and rainfall totals are currently expected to be close to the seasonal average.

As we head towards Spring, check back next week to see if things are set to warm up

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/ukweather/monthly_outlook.shtml