BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Summary

A stormy start but a settled end

It looks more like October for the next week or two: Deep depressions with strong winds and much rain. The expected anticyclonic, cold, fog and damp of November is more likely just before the month is out.

Monday 8 November 2010 to Sunday 14 November 2010

Stormy large depressions

Hill snow - several centimetres in the Grampian Mountains. Severe gales - 70+mph gusts in the Western Isles. Heavy rain - 30mm in Cumbria. These are conditions more reminiscent of the end of the hurricane season when we get obviously violent conditions.

Apart from ex-hurricane Tomas, whose various parts might be included in the end of the week's low, there is no tropical air in these babies.

There is also a visit to the cold easterlies on Tuesday as a precursor to what in January or February would be the coldest of weather. Even now it's raw.

Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 21 November 2010

Less stormy, less large depressions

You'll still hear he word "unsettled" in the broadcasts and it'll be more often windy than still and frosty.

There is an indication of further snow on northern hills and conversely warming weather in southern Britain. This might be explained by smaller depressions running across the north of the UK whilst dragging a southwesterly airflow across the south.

The week will probably end with the thought of frost and fog.

Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010

Colder and clearer

Early rain in the south is indicated, then the weather dries up. This time it's probably a spell of high pressure building in cold air. This is pointed to by the trend in computer models to below average temperatures, thus night frosts and below average rainfall from the end of week 3.

During week 4, below average sunshine is suggested in southern UK. This is a possible indication of anticyclonic gloom again. Most likely cloud from the North Sea trapped under the high pressure dome. Typical of November but this is now December!

Next week

So far the year has not followed the average - why should December?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

From no wind to a cold, strong, nagging wind

The analysis of the pressure pattern on Remembrance Sunday showed four centres of low pressure within one large area. And one isobar. In other words no wind but lots of potential for showers.

The strong signal from models of the virtual earth over the next three weeks is high pressure over Scandinavia becoming dominant, leaving us in a cold and persistent easterly wind.

Monday 15 November 2010 to Sunday 21 November 2010

One of little lows grows up

The start of the week with oft clear skies and long nights will be both frosty and foggy.

Midweek should see the deepening of a low pressure centre somewhere to our west, eventually resulting in a strong southerly quarter wind (i.e. wind from between the southwest and the southeast) and slow moving rainbands.

The rain may never reach the east of the UK as the Scandinavian anticyclone builds to prevent such progress.

Looks like a cold week, at first due to lingering fog and early frost, later through strengthening winds. On a positive note, Northern Ireland and Scotland are forecast to have more sunshine than normal and a drier than average week.

Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010

Depression in France, the opposite in Sweden

With moderate confidence, this forecast generates a continuous easterly wind because of the mountain of air over Scandinavia and the hole in the atmosphere over western Europe.

That is, of course, a simplification but the top of the atmosphere really would look like that if you could see it and the wind really is that air trying to fall from the mountain to the valley and being diverted by the spin of the earth.

The result is a cold week with windchill although the wind is not strong and night frosts will form: Showers in the east, drier and sunnier than average in the west.

Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010

The Swedish mountain moves

The anticyclonic mountain of air looks likely to drift a little further west. The wind remains an easterly as a result but isn't indicated as too strong.

Again night frost and fog, especially in western UK, are possible. Temperatures are likely to be below average along with deficient rainfall, except maybe along North Sea coasts.

Again the positive is in the likely very sunny weather to the west of high ground, unless you are stuck in the fog.

Next week

Well as it will be well into Christmas shopping time, it's bound to be cold, sometimes wet and possibly windy

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Weather roadblock

Weather patterns that affect the British Isles tend to fall into one of two broad groups, known to meteorologists as mobile westerly or blocked.

When the jet stream is screaming across the Atlantic, hurling depressions our way from the eastern seaboard of America, that's a mobile westerly. It's characterised by windy, wet but relatively mild autumn weather.

When the jet stream starts to meander, the weather becomes more lethargic. High pressure builds to the west of the UK, acting as a barrier to Atlantic storms and hence the term "blocked". This normally leads to winds turning to the north or east, bringing cold weather our way.

That's the pattern that will dominate our weather during at least the early part of this outlook. Once a block is in place, it often proves difficult to shift.

Monday 22 November 2010 to Sunday 28 November 2010

Cold and colder

As winds back round from east to north, so the feed of air becomes colder, originating in the Arctic.

Widespread sharp frost develops under clear skies overnight, as temperatures fall well below freezing.

The snow risk gradually increases as the colder air moves southwards. Areas exposed to the north to northeasterly winds are most likely to see significant falls of snow, especially over higher ground.

Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010

Wintry spell continues

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the first week of December, with widespread overnight frost and the risk of icy surfaces and further snowfall, particularly in eastern parts.

There is then a chance that southern and southwestern areas may turn a little less cold but also more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow tries to push up from the south, but the extent and speed of this encroachment will be open to doubt.

Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010

Confidence is high that temperatures stay low

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, sheltered western areas may be drier than normal.

There is a continuing signal for below or well below average temperatures, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Next week

Will the block give way, or will wintry weather prevail? Find out next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Mole]

Excellent forecast their

[Stuart]

Summary

Winter arrives, but when will it leave?

Last week's prediction of a classic cold snap certainly came true, with snow piling up across the northeastern parts of the UK and new November lowest temperature records being set in Wales and Northern Ireland.

The only real question for this outlook is how long the wintry weather can hold out against milder air moving in from the west. Unfortunately, that's the most difficult question to answer.

Monday 29 November 2010 to Sunday 5 December 2010

Snow becomes more widespread

Snow cover is likely to be more widespread by the end of the week. This means that once the biting easterly winds die down by the weekend, overnight temperatures are likely to fall to exceptionally low levels once again under clearing skies.

Still, the more settled weather over the weekend should mean plenty of opportunity to play in the snow, and for the road and rail crews to catch up.

Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010

A wintry mix looks likely

Into the new week, it will remain very cold for many with further snow showers likely, especially around some coastal areas, and widespread overnight frosts.

There is a chance that more persistent rain, sleet and snow may try to spread into the southern half of the UK for a time, making it slightly less cold here.

Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010

Through to Christmas

Confidence becomes much lower as we look further ahead into the Christmas week.

There is a signal that the severity of the cold spell will ease, although with temperatures still a little below normal. This suggests there is still scope for some snow and frost, but it may be more marginal.

Next week

This cold weather is likely to keep us guessing, especially in the run-up to Christmas, so come back for an update next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Cold theme set to continue until 2011

The current cold spell may already have obliterated the memory of how varibale conditions were as recently as November. It finished as December has begun, but it showed many other faces too.

November started with high temperatures. 19C was recorded at St James's Park in central London on 4th whilst at the other end of the month and at the other end of the temperature scale, minus 18C was recorded as a night minimum at Llysdinam, Breconshire on 27-28th.

The flooding of central and southern Cornwall in mid-month made headlines in what, overall was an averagely wet month for England and Wales. Northern Ireland recorded some 125% of its November average with Scotland close to par.

The end of the month saw snow and ice making an early appearance across some parts of the British Isles. The persistence of northeasterly winds fully exposed the northeast of both England and Wales to the disruptive effects of many centimetres of snow. Other areas succumbed as the wintry conditions spread. The word is already out that there are few signs of relief from the below average temperatures.

Monday 6 December 2010 to Sunday 12 December 2010

More fog, frost and snow problems

A front will cross northern parts of the British Isles in the first part of the week, producing significant snowfall for Northern Ireland, Scotland ad the north of England.

By midweek, the same front may give further snowfall across the southern half of Britain, but this shouldn't amount to more than a few centimetres.

As winds hover between north and northwesterly, so snow showers may continue to pepper the coasts of northern Britain and Northern Ireland.

The first half of the week will be every bit as cold as recent days and nights. Overnight fog may linger in some parts well on into the morning.

The latter part of the week should be less cold as a developing high produces a maritime-based, northwesterly wind. This may feed patchy rain into western parts during Thursady and Friday. Eastern areas should be dry.

Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010

Cold again across all parts of the British Isles

High pressure remains dominant to the west of the British Isles at first but moves towards Greenland, introducing a north to northeasterly airflow across all parts.

Patchy rain and drizzle will affect western areas at first, but the change of wind direction will encourage showers, increasingly wintry across northern and eastern areas of Scotland and England.

Temperatures are set to drop to well below average in the latter part of the week after an all too brief spell of slightly less cold airs.

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011

More cold weather

High pressure will again be dominant, but will only continue to feed in air with more than a hint of northerly about it.

Rainfall should be about average, but given that temperatures will be below or well below average, snowfall could be expected quite widely.

Next week

Check out the prospects for travel in the run-up to Christmas!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

A visit from the North Pole...

...without any reindeer and well before the 24th. By the end of the first week a harsh northerly wind will have dropped temperatures to freezing and left a layer of snow for many. From that point on, there is no indication of a significant thaw or warming trend so hard night frosts, possibly lasting throughout the day again, are back. Snow seems likely to fall - not for all but for many. Sunshine will be above average for some parts of the UK, changing depending on the exact wind direction.

You'd be surprised how few people have asked about a "White Christmas". Even though the betting odds have dropped, at the time of writing they are still 4/1 for London

Monday 13 December 2010 to Sunday 19 December 2010

Cold then colder

The week starts already colder than the weekend started. Fog in the Welsh Marches, Vale of York and one or two other places characteristic of this pressure pattern - i.e. anticyclonic. Night frosts are widespread but not hard, but ice is a problem as the banked up snow in Scotland and eastern England thaws by day. A significant change happens on Thursday as a spell of significant rain on a cold front moves north to south during the day. he rapid invasion of Arctic air behind means a significant black ice risk on Thursday night. Confidence is rising that on Thursday night significant snow will fall in eastern England and during Friday significant snow is possible in Northern Ireland Wales and western England. If confidence lowers then please unread the last paragraph.

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010

More of the same

The pressure pattern remains the same: High pressure to our north; low pressure to our south with a resultant northeasterly airflow. So still cold. With frost by night, severe where snow lies and lasting all day for large parts of the UK. Quite a few snow showers are indicated this week leaving a few centimetres wherever they fall. Models suggest at least average (rainfall equivalent) snowfall wherever you live but I think the wind direction will determine where significant falls occur. Sunshine should be above expectations in western Britain so you can assume that snowfall will be rare in the same areas.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 9 January 2011

Still cold

Confidence remains high that temperatures will be below average but low with regard to where showers may fall and where the sun will shine. This is not a surprise as in a situation where showers provide the precipitation then the direction of the wind is paramount: A change of a few degrees is the diference between a deluge, (or snow drift) and sunshine.

Next week

It's already 2011 but there may well be no significant change in the weather. Like the current European economic position, the pressure pattern remains static.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

An Arctic end to the year

Despite differences in forecast model output, sometimes contradictory, the majority opinion keeps us in Arctic air with further snow and severe frost until next the start of 2011.

The New Year should bring Atlantic weather to our shores helping to raise temperatures, causing a thaw and allowing sunsine that actually feels warmer!

Monday 20 December 2010 to Sunday 26 December 2010

A pretty landscape?

Even though English Channel coasts have a brush with "warmer" weather, the ground is cold everywhere and coastal rain here will freeze overnight.

Night time temperatures may well breach record lows, currently standing at -25 to -27 depending on the area described. Daytime maxima will, for many places with snow on the ground, fail to reach zero Celsius.

At the end of the week, as a discrete low pressure centre forms over central Europe, we pick up an increasing easterly wind which brings snow for most of eastern and central Britain, in blizzard form and to disruptive depth again.

Northern Ireland and western Britain should enjoy cold sunshine.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011

Finally an end to it?

Further snow, widespread ice, severe overnight frosts and some freezing fog are likely in most parts of the UK at first. More of the same then.

Eventually this blocked weather pattern will shift and it is at the end of this week that it is forecast to happen. The transition itself will cause thaw by both rising temperature and falling rain. This sustained release of frozen and falling water may cause its own problems.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011

Settled in to unsettled

This looks more like our usual winter - mild, windy and sometimes wet. There is a nice signal for longer dry periods and sunny intervals.

Next week

Once the block of cold weather has been shifted and not returned within the week, it's likely to stay gone for a while. Wintry wet and windy weather could well be the order of the day.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[yamkin]

Until Stuart returns here's the BBC Weather Monthly Outlook:

Summary

It's a breakthrough, but not for long. http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/w00t.gif

At 7am on Boxing Day morning the temperature at Castlederg in Northern Ireland crept above freezing, for the first time since the 17th of December.

Milder air was at last breaking through from the Atlantic, but as usual the transition was a messy one. After such a prolonged cold spell, a dangerous mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice spread erratically eastwards across the UK.

The signs are that milder weather will be relatively short-lived as the blocking weather pattern reasserts itself.

Without any change of airmass, any input of warmth from the feeble winter sun is more than offset by cooling during the long nights. The net effect is that temperatures continue to fall. As a result, January 2011 looks set to be another cold month.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011

Quiet start to the New Year

Once the milder Atlantic air is in place there will be a slow but steady thaw of the lying snow right across the UK.

Frost-free nights will be a novelty, but the combination of mild, moist air sitting over cold ground always leads to disappointingly grey, dank weather.

A brief spell of easterly winds later in the week gives a hint of what's in store for the New Year weekend, as temperatures begin to ease downwards once again. However, there's little sign of any disruptive weather for New Year revellers or travellers.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011

Chilly but dry

High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the weather across the UK.

Temperatures will once again fall below average during the first full week of the New Year. Largely dry but cold conditions then look set to persist until the end of the period, but with occasional rain or snow showers affecting some northeastern parts at times.

Frost and icy stretches remain a risk across all parts.

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011

Cold and colder :cold:

The cold weather looks set to continue across the UK, with particularly low temperatures likely across central parts. This gives a continuing risk of widespread sharp frosts overnight for most regions, with daytime temperatures only a little above freezing.

Sunshine and precipitation amounts look set to be around average for mid-January, but given the continuing low temperatures, it is likely that some places will see further snow.

Next week

Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Edited December 27, 2010 by yamkin

[yamkin]

Until Stuart returns here's the BBC Weather Monthly Outlook:

Published at 10:00, 27 December

(Next update at 10:00, 3 January 2011)

Written by Peter Gibbs

Summary

It's a breakthrough, but not for long.

At 7am on Boxing Day morning the temperature at Castlederg in Northern Ireland crept above freezing, for the first time since the 17th of December.

Milder air was at last breaking through from the Atlantic, but as usual the transition was a messy one. After such a prolonged cold spell, a dangerous mix of rain, sleet, snow and ice spread erratically eastwards across the UK.

The signs are that milder weather will be relatively short-lived as the blocking weather pattern reasserts itself.

Without any change of airmass, any input of warmth from the feeble winter sun is more than offset by cooling during the long nights. The net effect is that temperatures continue to fall. As a result, January 2011 looks set to be another cold month.

Monday 27 December 2010 to Sunday 2 January 2011

Quiet start to the New Year

Once the milder Atlantic air is in place there will be a slow but steady thaw of the lying snow right across the UK.

Frost-free nights will be a novelty, but the combination of mild, moist air sitting over cold ground always leads to disappointingly grey, dank weather.

A brief spell of easterly winds later in the week gives a hint of what's in store for the New Year weekend, as temperatures begin to ease downwards once again. However, there's little sign of any disruptive weather for New Year revellers or travellers.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011

Chilly but dry

High pressure is expected to continue to dominate the weather across the UK.

Temperatures will once again fall below average during the first full week of the New Year. Largely dry but cold conditions then look set to persist until the end of the period, but with occasional rain or snow showers affecting some northeastern parts at times.

Frost and icy stretches remain a risk across all parts.

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011

Cold and colder

The cold weather looks set to continue across the UK, with particularly low temperatures likely across central parts. This gives a continuing risk of widespread sharp frosts overnight for most regions, with daytime temperatures only a little above freezing.

Sunshine and precipitation amounts look set to be around average for mid-January, but given the continuing low temperatures, it is likely that some places will see further snow.

Next week

Is there no end to the cold snap? Find out next week.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Edited December 28, 2010 by yamkin

[Stuart]

Summary

No return of the block - normal winter resumes

The deep cold and snow was caused by a big weather pattern staying in one place. Normally we have a series of highs and lows moves slowly from west to east so we never stick to one weather type for more than three days or so. The weather will see normal variation over the month.

Monday 3 January 2011 to Sunday 9 January 2011

Arctic to Atlantic and back to Arctic

The start of the week, though cold, is also cloudy so the freeze of a true Arctic airmass is mitigated somewhat. We get a slight frost and not much sun.

Monday and Tuesday sees the weather switch to Atlantic, bringing rain. Some hill snow and road ice is likely. Midweek brings heavy rain to middle Britain and the week's end a swing back to an Arctic northerly with snow showers for Scotland and sun for the rest.

Temperatures both by day and night will remain below average with Thursday and Friday nights increasingly frosty. But then both days should be sunny for the majority.

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011

Cold but not extreme

With a mainly northwesterly airflow, northwestern parts of the UK are expected to be windy in the first part of the week, with wintry showers and an associated risk of ice.

Later in the week, there are indications that winds will become generally more southwesterly, leading to an increased chance of wet and breezy conditions for most areas.

The consequences on temperature are obvious - a cold start but a rise to near or even above normal levels with the incoming southwesterly wind.

Fog is an early week potential, except for northern UK but so is plenty of sunshine.

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011

Grinding to a halt but only temporarily

The indications for the end of the month are for a split across the UK of weather type: Northeast versus southwest.

The northeast looks colder than average, duller than average and wetter than average. That could mean some snow.

Conversely, the southwest, should be "warmer" or about average, sunshine about average and rainfall about average.

Next week

If the last week is an indicator then the pattern is blocking again which will bring us either deep cold and snow again.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

A mild incursion then maybe cold again

"Wet and windy" is a phrase not used much this winter but I think will be employed for the next week or so.

Confidence is very high for the change to this mild, wet and windy weather but by the first week of February, when colder weather is again suggested, the confidence has dropped to "low".

Monday 10 January 2011 to Sunday 16 January 2011

This feels normal for a British winter

There will be ice and fresh Highland snow to start the week and the ground in Northern Ireland and Scotland remains very cold and at least in Scotland, partly snow covered.

Scotland and Northern Ireland stay cold until Wednesday, then join the rest of the UK.

England and Wales turn wet, windy and mild during Monday, briefly reverts to cold and sunny on Tuesday then is determinedly wet, windy and mild, i.e 12C from Wednesday.

Expect flood warnings and gale warnings.

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011

So it should get colder again

Which, with medium to high confidence, it does. The wind should swing from southwest to northwest and then stay west or north of west.

No more double digit temperatures this week.

The rainfall indications are interesting when combined with sunshine predictions: It all suggests to me streams of showers across the Irish Sea onto and beyond the Irish Sea coasts in for example, north Wales, the Midlands and northern England.

Sunshine looks better than average in south Wales, southwest England and surprisingly northwest Scotland.

Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 6 February 2011

More of the same - probably

The northwest quarter wind prevails but surprisingly rainfall is above average for England and Wales and well above in eastern Scotland.

Temperatures are well below average in Scotland and Northern Ireland whilst sunshine is well above average for northern Scotland but below in the Midlands and northeast England.

As I like to try and fit pressure patterns to these indications, I suggest a slow-moving depression in the North Sea.

Next week

A possibility of another mild incursion but the signal for this isn't strong.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Cold comes back

Did you enjoy the milder interlude?

For many, the Atlantic winds brought a welcome change from the bitter weather of December. Yet it's arguable whether wind and rain is preferable to sunshine and frost. Indeed some of us have had far too much rain in the last week or so.

Like it or not, the warmer, wetter westerlies have already run out of steam. We must again look to the north and east for our weather. Frozen Britain - part 2?

Monday 17 January 2011 to Sunday 23 January 2011

Crisp and dry

With high pressure sitting over the UK, clear skies and light winds prevail for many through this week.

Around the edges of the high, rain will affect the south at first and the far north later. However, in between, it will stay largely dry and bright by day. Frost will be widespread at night, with a few lingering fog patches expected.

Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011

Cold block holds sway

The Atlantic winds look like being held at bay by the cold, dense block of air sitting over us. Just the far north of the UK may at times feel these milder, damper conditions.

Otherwise, high pressure will ensure plenty of dry weather, with some more crisp winter sunshine by day for most of us.

However we will always need to keep one eye on the frozen Continent. Any hint of an easterly wind coming over the North Sea brings the chance of generating some snow showers to eastern areas.

Monday 31 January 2011 to Sunday 13 February 2011

Change of month but the weather may stay 'stuck'

'Blocked' weather patterns often take a very long time to break down. Indeed, computer models are sometimes too quick to signal a return of westerlies, particularly at this time of year.

So despite the longer days and stronger sunshine of February, it may be that the cold block of high pressure persists, and temperatures remain below the nomal with widespread frost.

Details of snowfall will remain ellusive until nearer the time. However relatively high pressure should ensure a lot of dry weather.

Next week

Looking to the east, or will the warmer westerlies win?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

The cold hangs on for a little longer

What a relief this last week has been. It’s been a long time since we have managed a week without any weather warnings being issued for snow, rain or wind across the UK. The quieter theme looks like it will continue for a little while longer but the milder air from the Atlantic is always trying to re-establish itself, and as we head into February it may begin to win the battle.

Monday 24 January 2011 to Sunday 30 January 2011

Cold and cloudy

A mainly settled week as high pressure remains near the UK. Saying that though it will remain rather cloudy with a few bands of rain spreading south at the beginning of the week. Overnight frosts will remain a risk during the week and more so by the end of the week when the winds start coming off the cool continent, giving perhaps the odd snowflake for some of us in the east.

Monday 31 January 2011 to Sunday 6 February 2011

Change of the month, change in the weather?

The high pressure looks set to finally move east towards the continent during the week allowing the milder southwesterlies to begin to make an appearance again. This though will also bring back the wind and rain especially in the south west, where despite the milder air it may still feel rather cool. The transition can be a slow process though as we found out last month so it may take a few days before the milder air reaches all parts of the UK.

Monday 7 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011

The westerlies stay in charge

The Atlantic seems set to stay in charge of our weather as we enter mid February keeping the weather fairly unsettled. Rainfall amounts and temperatures look set to be close too or just above average for the time of year, which will help keep the nightime frost at bay. However with the cold dense air never to far away in the continent we can't put away our winter coats just yet.

Next week

Will the southwesterlies dominate or will the colder air stay put?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

A change in the month, a change in the weather.

The second half of January has been fairly quiet across the UK, giving most of us some welcome respite from the wind, rain and snow. Things are set to change though as we enter the new month; with unsettled conditions spreading in from the Atlantic giving spells of rain, strong winds and even snow for some of us.

Monday 31 January 2011 to Sunday 6 February 2011

Turning unsettled from the northwest

The high pressure will finally lose its grip on the UK during the first half of the week, allowing bands of rain and strong winds to slowly spread in from the northwest. Scotland and Northern Ireland will see this on Monday but the far southeast may hang on to the cooler and settled conditions until late on Tuesday. Although the temperatures will slowly climb this week, some colder air will move back in at times; especially on Thursday when it will be cold enough for some snow in the north.

Monday 7 February 2011 to Sunday 13 February 2011

Staying changeable

As we head towards mid February the weather seems set to stay fairly changeable. Further spells of wet weather will come in from the Atlantic, with again the risk of these turning wintry over the high ground in the north. There will though be some brighter and drier interludes in between, and where they occur temperatures will become rather mild.

Monday 14 February 2011 to Sunday 27 February 2011

High pressure makes a comeback

The Atlantic systems look set to lose the battle again as we approach the end of February, allowing the high pressure over the continent to build across the UK once more. This will give a much quieter and drier end to the month, with temperatures remaining near average for the time of year.

Next week

Will March roar in like a Lion, or will it come in like a lamb?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Unsettled at first but change is on the way

After quite a wet and windy week for much of the UK last week, the weather is set for another change as we head into the middle half of February. The settled weather look like they are heading back to our shores with drier and colder conditions.

Monday 7 February 2011 to Sunday 13 February 2011

The wind and rain hangs on

Much of the week will bring spells of wet and windy weather across the UK, with western parts seeing the worse of the conditions. However, temperatures will remain near or just above normal for this time of the year. There will be some drier interludes at times, especially on Tuesday when most areas will see some good spells of sunshine. The weekend though heralds a change as high pressure tries to build in from the east. This will allow much cooler conditions to spread into the east with perhaps some wintry showers developing in the north.

Monday 14 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011

Turning more settled in the east but cold

During the week, high pressure will continue to build across the UK keeping the Atlantic systems mainly at bay to the west of the country. However they will manage to spread into western parts from time to time which will give spells of wet and windy weather for some. Meanwhile, further east will be mostly dry except for some wintry showers moving in from the continent. Temperatures will become rather cold for this time of year with nightime frosts developing, however western parts will be less cold at times as the wind and rain spread in.

Monday 21 February 2011 to Sunday 6 March 2011

A mostly settled end to the month

Despite remaining strong over the south, the high pressure will loose its grip over the north on occasions allowing the return of some wet and windy conditions at times. Temperatures are set to remain cold throughout the south with frost and fog remaining a problem. Further north though will be much milder as the Atlantic air influences the region.

Next week

Will March have a spring in its step?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Taste of winter still to come for some

A pleasant February can go a long way to give the impression that the winter has been alright. With the early onset of widespread snow in November, the case for winter of 2010 was never going to be an easy one to make.

What will not help is that January and the first part of February have been so unseasonably gloomy, especially across parts of the south of England. Some areas have had 30-40% less than the average sunshine for this time of year.

The next few days will do little to alleviate matters. Is it any help if I remind you that in February 2008 a number of spots across the south of Britain set February records for sunshine? No, I thought not.

Monday 14 February 2011 to Sunday 20 February 2011

A highly changeable week

Low pressure over Northern Ireland at the start of the week sets the pattern, joined on Tuesday by another just a little further to the west. The initial feature throws rain, snow and showers across Northern Ireland and much of Scotland, whilst Tuesday's low will encourage a band of rain, sleet and snow to move northwards across all parts of the British Isles.

Wednesday will be quieter day with some sunny spells and a few showers; some of these wintry in the north. Thursday will be a similar day with a scattering of showers across southern England, southeast Wales, and the coasts of Scotland.

The battle between cold air in the east and milder, moister air to the west is on Friday, as a front brings wet and windy weather to all western parts.

Temperatures this week will be at or just below average throughout the British Isles.

Monday 21 February 2011 to Sunday 27 February 2011

Cold and mild weather battle for UK dominance

High pressure will dominate across Scandinavia at first, slowing the eastward progress of Atlantic fronts across the British Isles.

The period will start cold across the northeast of Britain, but mild and wet weather will sit across the south and west.

Weather fronts will try to move northeastwards, but until they arrive there is an increasing risk of snow falling on the higher ground of the Scottish mountains. During the following weekend, the mild but rather wet weather will win out with many areas turning milder.

Monday 28 February 2011 to Sunday 13 March 2011

Touch of spring as high pressure tries to dominate

High pressure from the Azores is expected to extend towards the south of the British Isles, whilst northern parts will stay mild, wet and windy. Temperatures will often be above the average. After a wet start in the north, rainfall will decrease as the ridge of high pressure becomes more established. It will however remain breezy in the northwest and there will be an increasing risk of night frosts.

Next week

Will the weather realise we've slipped 'officially' into Spring? Check the prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

More settled conditions on the way after this week

The recent cold weather will be forced out of the way by a series of Atlantic weather systems this week, bringing wind and rain for all.

However, high pressure will take hold in week 2, bringing much more settled conditions.

As we head into week 3 the south of the UK will hold onto that high pressure but more wind and rain is expected for the north.

Monday 21 February 2011 to Sunday 27 February 2011

Mild but wet and windy

This week looks set to bring a much more unsettled picture to all parts of the UK. A cold blocking high pressure across Scandinavia will finally be forced out of the way, allowing repeated low pressure systems to move through, bringing wet and windy weather for all.

The northwest of the UK in particular can expect gales at times throughout the week, but winds will be noticeable for everyone.

On top of that, most regions will have above average rainfall as successive bands of rain push steadily through. Although there will be little sunshine, the good news is it will be generally milder, with temperatures squeezing up to 12 or 13 degrees at times.

Monday 28 February 2011 to Sunday 6 March 2011

Dry, bright and mild

A noticeable change takes place as much more settled conditions start to take hold. High pressure extending up from the Azores will see a switch to drier and brighter weather for all.

Southwesterly winds will persist and continue to feed in mild air. The high pressure will mean winds become much lighter too, making it feel really quite pleasant.

Monday 7 March 2011 to Sunday 20 March 2011

High pressure struggling to hold on

The high pressure will do its best to stay in charge, but will gradually start to weaken in the north.

Where the high pressure loses its grip we will see more wind and rain battling its way in, particularly for Scotland.

Elsewhere it will be mostly dry with temperatures around or just above average.

Next week

Will Spring have sprung?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Generally changeable weather on the horizon

High pressure looks set to dominate during the first part of March and is set to make a return by the end of the month, bringing plenty of dry and settled weather.

Atlantic weather systems are likely to move across all parts of the UK during the month, with the wettest of the weather in the north.

Monday 28 February 2011 to Sunday 6 March 2011

Mainly dry, but rather cloudy for many

High pressure will build across the UK during this week, keeping conditions mostly dry.

West or southwesterly winds will continue to feed into Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing relatively mild conditions. However, northeasterly winds will begin to set in, especially across southern England. Conditions will feel cold here as the breeze drags continental air towards our shores. There may also be a few light showers, possibly wintry in nature over high ground, although accumulations are not expected.

Where skies clear overnight, some frost and fog patches will form.

Monday 7 March 2011 to Sunday 13 March 2011

High pressure does its best to hang on

High pressure will do its best to remain in charge of the United Kingdom's weather this week. Many areas will be generally dry, with a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Any clear spells overnight will continue to bring the risk of frost and fog.

Towards the end of this week, more unsettled conditions are likely to affect the northwest of the UK, with spells of rain moving in.

Many areas will be starting off rather cool for the second week of March, but it should become a little milder towards the northwest.

Monday 14 March 2011 to Sunday 27 March 2011

Rather unsettled at first, but turning quieter...

Periods of rain are likely to affect much of the UK at first, leading to quite a wet spell at the beginning of the week. Some rain is likely further south, however there will also be some brighter interludes.

As we move towards the end of the month, high pressure looks set to build once more, allowing conditions to dry up. There should also be plenty of sunshine, with temperatures around the seasonal average.

Next week

Spring is in the air, but will it last?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Turning a little milder, with a lot of dry weather

High pressure will relinquish its grip for the first couple of weeks, allowing for some more unsettled conditions to move in off the Atlantic. But high pressure should again return by the end of the month.

Overall, sunshine amounts will be above average with only small amounts of rain across more southern parts of the United Kingdom. Temperatures should eventually increase a little, making it feel more like early Spring.

Monday 7 March 2011 to Sunday 13 March 2011

Becoming unsettled and remaining rather cool.

This week will see a change from the quiet, settled conditions of the previous few days to more unsettled weather moving in off the Atlantic.

This will be most noticeable across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, where there will be spells of rain, with some sleet and snow over the hills. A few showers are also expected across southern parts of the United Kingdom and it will be fairly breezy everywhere.

Temperatures will start off rather cold, with some significant frost under clear skies in the south, but increasing cloud and wind will see frost becoming less of a problem as the week progresses.

Monday 14 March 2011 to Sunday 20 March 2011

Changeable across the country, still rather cool.

A fairly changeable spell of weather is likely for the whole of the United Kingdom.

Most parts of the country should see some rain or showers, with the wettest conditions likely to be in the north and northwest.

Despite losing the northeasterly airflow, temperatures are still expected be generally below the seasonal average, although when the sun shines it should feel pleasantly mild.

Monday 21 March 2011 to Sunday 3 April 2011

Generally dry once again for the south.

The weather looks as if it will settle down for many areas by the end of March, especially across the southern half of the United Kingdom, as high pressure takes up residence over the near continent.

England and Wales should see well below average rainfall, but occasional bands of rain will continue to run into Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

Temperatures should rise to above normal across eastern Scotland and northeast England, with nearer normal temperatures expected elsewhere.

Next week

Much of the UK saw a fairly dry winter overall, but how is April going to shape up?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Changeable March theme spills into April

Just a few days or just a few miles can make all the difference to the look

and feel of the weather in March. Both Scotland and Northern Ireland have

experienced such phenomena in recent days. Close to freezing and snow a plenty

seperated from sunny spells and several degrees of relative warmth by just a few

miles.

The coming weeks of late March and early April may not offer such a taste of

winter as some have seen in the past week, but early Spring's famed variability

will be much in evidence nonetheless. There's more warmth in the late March sun

but sea temperatures are close to their annual low. Wind direction and a little

sunshine can make all the difference to the feel of the day.

Monday 14 March 2011 to Sunday 20 March 2011

Winter's grip released over Scotland

The weekend's snowfall over Scotland should soon become but a memory as

milder air is imported from the Atlantic. The snow-bearing weather front will

weaken in the early part of the week but sunshine may be in short supply.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will be briefly wet again by Tuesday whilst

England and Wales will have enjoyed a quiet, relatively dry start to the week.

Tuesday, indeed, could be warm in the south with highs of 14C. Wednesday too

will be quiet, if dull, as the British Isles lie betwixt weather systems.

Thursday will see wet weather across northern and western parts of the

British Isles, with the southeast likely to see this rain overnight. Friday will

be marked by a cooler, fresher feel in all areas and copious showers across

Northern Ireland and western Britian.

Monday 21 March 2011 to Sunday 27 March 2011

North-South divide alive and well

Southern and eastern parts of the British Isles should be mainly dry with

some sunshine, although it may be rather cloudy to start with some light rain.

By contrast, the rest of the British Isles will be unsettled with outbreaks of

rain, some of which will be heavy, and may turn to snow on high ground in the

north.

Temperatures will be around average, although there will be a risk of night

frosts later in the week as temperatures by day and night fall away.

Monday 28 March 2011 to Sunday 10 April 2011

Change of month but little change in the weather

It's likely to remain settled in the south of both England and Wales but with

some variability in the temperatures. Sunshine will be limited as there could be

a good deal of cloud. Scotland and Northern Ireland will se further spells of

rain and showers which, again, will turn wintry on northern hills. Night frosts

could catch unwary gardeners.

Next week

Thoughts turning to the garden? Check the weather prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

Edited March 14, 2011 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

Dry spell continues for southern Britain

An Atlantic high will bring yet more dry weather to the south of the British

Isles. I do remember that last week ended on a wet note quite widely across

southern areas of both England and Wales, but the fact that I remembered that

particular episode only serves to illustrate how exceptional the rain was.

However it has been, and will continue to be a different story across

Scotland and Northern Ireland. This week's high will mirror that of recent weeks

in that its influence will be insufficient to keep Atlantic fronts at bay. The

first part of the week may also be windy in this region, another difference to

southern parts.

Monday 21 March 2011 to Sunday 27 March 2011

Fine but rather cloudy and later more unsettled

High pressure will lie across southern Britain in the early part of the week,

producing a lot of dry weather but also delivering disappointing amounts of

sunshine. Later in the week when the high migrates northward to be centred to

the northwest of Scotland, incoming fronts will bring cloud and rain into these

southern areas.

Fronts will drift across northern Scotland early in the week before making

inroads further south later on. Increased cloud in the region will do little for

sunshine totals but breaks to the east of high ground will allow temperatures to

climb well above the seasonal norm, with 16C possible. More certain breaks

across England and Wales under the high pressure may lead to some night time

frosts.

Monday 28 March 2011 to Sunday 3 April 2011

High pressure declines

With little to stop the progression of weather fronts from the Atlantic, the

weather across all parts of the British Isles will have a less settled look to

it. As a consequence, sunshine amounts will only be around average, with sub-

par totals probable for southern Wales and southwest England.

Rainfall amounts will fluctuate between close to the norm in southern parts

of Britain to above average in both western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Daytime temperatures will be unremarkable but increased cloud amounts and the

advance of the season should help to reduce the possibility of night

frosts.

Monday 4 April 2011 to Sunday 17 April 2011

Suitable Spring variations for early April

There will be little signs of a prolonged, settled spell of weather in any

part of the British Isles with an Atlantic flow bringing spells of wet weather

to all parts.

At this range, it looks as though the wettest weather could be found across

southwest Scotland and East Anglia. As a consequence, temperatures and sunshine

amounts in these regions will suffer but few areas will top their seasonal

norms.

Next week

Just a matter of April showers? Check out how the season is progressing

here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Suitably changeable April follows dry March

High pressure was dominant across much of the British Isles during the month of March. Little surprise, therefore, that rainfall totals in some areas have been well below average. The last part of the month will make up some of the deficit but records will be broken.

The recent warm spell enjoyed by many areas has also come to an end; an abrupt one at that across eastern areas. The highest temperature of the period, 19.6C, was recorded at both Chivenor and Charlwood on Friday. This is several degrees above the seasonal norm but well short of the March record of 25C, recorded in Norfolk in 1968.

Monday 28 March 2011 to Sunday 3 April 2011

Calm March comes to an end

Monday and Tuesday will be the last days of the recent settled spell for many parts of the British Isles. High pressure will provide more dry weather until Atlantic fronts start to make inroads in the west late on Tuesday.

Through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the first significant rain for some time will fall across all parts as a weather front sweeps towards the North Sea. Temperatures will take a dip towards the average levels for March, but at least the threat of night frosts will recede for a time.

Thursday and Friday look to be no less settled. There's uncertainty about the weekend but it too may see another vigorous low pressure bringing wet and windy conditions to the north and west. One plus is that temperatures may rise as southerly winds set in.

Monday 4 April 2011 to Sunday 10 April 2011

Only southern Britain set for settled spell

The unsettled theme to the weather looks set to continue through the week. Northern and western areas of the British Isles will see the greater part of the rain. In some spots the rain will be heavy and persistent. Winds will also be strong to gale force at times in this region.

Further south, across southeast England particularly, the weather will be drier and somewhat brighter. In brighter spells temperatures will climb above the seasonal norm, with only a low risk of some night frosts.

Monday 11 April 2011 to Sunday 24 April 2011

April showers arrive on cue

Given that this is the heart of April, the forecast should come as no surprise. High pressure rarely dominates for any length of time at this time of year and mid-April will see no exception.

Sunny spells and showers, some of them heavy and prolonged, will be the theme. Southern areas, however, may see a somewhat longer dry spell with a consequent rise in temperatures. Later in the period, temperatures will fall closer to the seasonal norm and night frosts may make a brief return. Rainfall totals are expected to be close to the average.

Next week

Going to the Grand National or going for the Grand National? Check the prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Fine, settled and warm at first but cooler later

Provisional figures suggest that March 2011 could be the driest across the UK since 1953. Averaged across the whole of the British Isles, around 41% of the expected rainfall fell but, as ever, this average covers a wide range of statistics. Cambridge saw no rain up to the 30th, whilst parts of Wester Ross exceeded 180mm.

Dry weather doesn't always equate to copious amounts of sunshine but 2011 scored well here too. England and Wales enjoyed sufficient sunshine to rank this March in the top 15 of the past century. Northern Ireland wasn't far behind whilst Scotland managed to beat the average.

March can be such a fickle month. One only has to check the records for 2010 to observe that snow, gales and heavy rain affected Scotland and Northern Ireland. March 2007, by contrast, formed part of a 60 day period across southeast England which was the driest since 1938.

Monday 4 April 2011 to Sunday 10 April 2011

Rain to start the week but drier and warmer later

The first half of the week will be marked by spells of wet and often windy weather, sweeping in off the Atlantic. Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England will bear the brunt of these conditions, with parts of southeast England and East Anglia remaining dry throughout. Rainfall totals in parts of northwest Scotland could reach 100mm by Wednesday, whilst the east of Scotland could struggle to reach 10mm.

The second half of the week will see high pressure develop from the near continent. This will have the effect of settling the weather over the north of the British Isles and boosting temperatures quite widely. Isolated spots may achieve 20C in the latter part of the week, with the upper teens widespread.

Monday 11 April 2011 to Sunday 17 April 2011

Fine for the south but unsettled in the north

High pressure will tend to lose its grip on southern Britain as it gradually slips away southwestwards but not before it has provided more fine weather. As the high declines, so a more unsettled, southwesterly airstream will come to dominate the weather. This will allow weather fronts to move across northwest Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland.

Temperatures will remain well above the seasonal average, both by day and night. Gardeners and growers need have little fear of frosts this week. After the dry March, more dry weather can be expected across the south of England and Wales, whilst April's rain and showers will be found further north.

Monday 18 April 2011 to Sunday 1 May 2011

Westerlies set to bring seasonably showery weather

With little prospect of a dominant high, the period will be marked by a westerly airstream. Showers or longer spells of rain will be the order of the day.

Temperatures will fall back to lie closer to those expected in the latter part of April. Sunshine and rainfall totals should also avoid making the headlines.

Next week

London Marathon or Badminton Horse Trials? Whatever your sporting interest, check the weather prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Temperatures fall but some dry weather to come

March was notable for its lack of rain in many parts of the British Isles, and for some that trend has continued. To that trend we can now add a bit of spring warmth. Although the April record (29.4C at Camden Sq in London 1949) has yet to be threatened, temperatures have reached 22-23C quite widely across Britain.

Almost anything goes in April. High temperatures, heavy downpours and snow at Easter are all possible and only serve to indicate that the strength of the sun is increasing with the advent of spring. It's this atmospheric change that also boosts the development of showers through April and May. change is the watchword of the season so don't be caught out. Let's hope we're not!

Monday 11 April 2011 to Sunday 17 April 2011

Heat is tempered by cloudier and cooler weather

Only southeast Britain will enjoy the last of the recent warm weather as a cold front brings, cloud, rain and a drop in temperatures to all parts early in the period. Temperatures will fall by several degrees, especially in those inland areas that have topped 20C in recent days.

Tuesday will be a bright, fresh day with showers for Scotland and Northern Ireland in particular. Wednesday will be marked by the first significant rain in many areas as an area of low pressure swings its fronts southeastwards. The rain won't reach the far southeast until late afternoon.

Thursday and Friday will be cloudy affairs with the odd patch of rain as weak fronts follow on Wednesday's weather systems. At this point the weekend looks set to start on a promising note.

Monday 18 April 2011 to Sunday 24 April 2011

Seasonably unsettled through the week

The week will be marked by a good deal of variation in weather types across the British Isles. As one might expect at this time of year, there will be spells of unsettled weather, especially across the north and west of the British Isles, where occasional periods of heavy rain or showers will be accompanied by strong winds.

Further to the south and east, it will be often cloudy with the odd spell of rain but some decent dry interludes. These will tend to keep temperatures at or above the average, typically 11-14C across England and Wales, whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland will struggle to reach their marks (9-12C). The weekend may be marked by unsettled weather in the northwest of Scotland.

Monday 25 April 2011 to Sunday 8 May 2011

Dry trend set to continue in southern Britain

The period looks as though it will continue with a north-west - south-east split across the British Isles, with much of Scotland and Northern Ireland seeing rather unsettled weather. Temperatures will be below average for mid-spring whilst rainfall amounts wil be close to par.

England and Wales should have a lot of fine and dry weather with prolonged spells of sunshine. There will be showery spells of weather, even in the south, but, overall, many places will be drier than average for the time of year. Temperatures will be close to or even above the mid-spring average.

Next week

Badminton Horse Trials, the 1000 and 2000 Guineas or the FA Cup final? Check the prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209