BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Peter H]

Some interesting thoughts on that weekly forecast video.

[Stuart]

Monday 14 January Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold conditions set to stick?

Through the past week we've seen a transition from the mild weather that dominated the first part of January to much colder conditions, as easterly winds swept continental air across the country.

Cold air looks likely to remain in place over the next few weeks, although with milder air of Atlanic origin trying to make inroads from the west.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 20 January

A wintry week

This week will be cold with frosty conditions by night and the risk of ice at times.

The week starts with a band of rain, sleet and snow crossing the country, but quickly the set-up shifts to easterly winds bringing snow showers from the North Sea, mainly acoss eastern areas.

For the second half of the week, many areas will be cold but largely dry with sunny spells and just the risk of some wintry showers. However, we may see fronts intruding into some western areas, bringing with them milder air but also a risk of rain, sleet and snow as the fronts push up against the colder air already in place.

Monday 21 January—Sunday 27 January

A tricky balance

This week we will continue to watch the battle between the cold air in place across the country and milder, Atlantic air trying to encroach from the west.

It looks most likely that much of the UK will be cold and settled, leading to largely dry and frosty conditions, but with the risk of some wintry showers continuing in central and eastern areas at times. There will also be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also form during the cold and clearer nights, which may be slow to clear by day.

The fronts pushing into western areas may bring some milder conditions but also spells of persistent rain and hill snow; however, confidence on this detail remains low.

Monday 28 January—Sunday 10 February

Staying cold?

There is more than average uncertainty as we head into the beginning of February, with no strong signal for any particular weather type to dominate. However, it does look as though colder conditions are more favoured rather than the milder weather we have seen recently.

Therefore spells of rain, sleet and snow look likely at times with a continued risk of frost and ice. In addition we may well see freezing fog forming during quiter periods, which may be very slow to clear during the day.

Next week

Just how long will the cold last?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 21 January Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

It's still cold! How long will it last?

The past week has been very cold with spells of snow across much of the country, leading to some significant accumulations building up in places. This has been the case because high pressure developed to the northeast of the UK, causing easterly winds to bring cold continental air across the country. At the same time, weather systems from the Atlantic brought moisture into the frame. The bulk of the snowfall occurred in areas where the moisture met with the cold air.

As we head through this week, the cold feel will continue to grip the UK. Will there be any further significant snowfall and is there any end in sight to this cold spell. Read on to find out more........

Monday 21 January—Sunday 27 January

Cold and icy again, with further snow for some.

The week gets under way with another spell of very wintry weather, with a good deal of snowfall for northern areas of the UK. Several centimetres of snow are anticipated for for northeast England and central and eastern parts of Scotland during Monday. Another weather front is expected to move across southern parts of the UK during Monday afternoon, which could also bring a little snow to southern counties of England and parts of Wales. Away from the snow areas, expect a good deal of cloud with many places struggling to get above freezing throughout the day.

Tuesday's forecast brings very little change, with further snowfall anticipated for northern and some eastern parts of the UK, and another snow-bearing front bringing some brief spells of snowfall to southern counties. Once again, cloudy and bitterly cold conditions will prevail elsewhere.

Through the course of Wednesday and Thursday, things tend to settle down as high pressure starts to dominate the weather ste up again. Although most places will be dry, bar the odd snow flurry, the onset of high pressure willl drag in more cold continental air from the east. So expect further bitterly cold weather, with frosty nights and even the chance of some freezing fog patches.

As we head towards the end of the week and into the weekend, it does look increasingly likely that we will begin to see a slow transition from the cold easterly airstream, back to a less cold westerly flow. This potential change will likely be triggered by a weather front slowly sinking in from the northwest, bringing some spells of rain, sleet and snow to many places, and some very strong winds for all.

Monday 28 January—Sunday 3 February

Wet, windy and less cold for many.

By the start of the week, it looks increasingly likely that we'll see a return to a westerly air flow that is expected to bring successive Atlantic weather systems across many parts of the UK. This will mean spells of wet and windy weather for most. At the moment it's a little bit difficult to pinpoint the exact details of the forecast through this period, but it does look as if temperatures will recover slightly. That doesn't mean any significantly milder weather is envisaged though, as it's likely that we will still see temperatures struggling to reach average values. For this reason, it will still feel pretty chilly at times as we move into the start of February.

Monday 4 February—Sunday 17 February

Still pretty cold, with a further chance of snow.

Even for a long term forecast, the uncertainties in weather details for this period are greater than usual. What we can say is that the start of February is probably going to be rather wet and windy at times, with temperatures around about average or just a touch below. There are also signs that some colder conditions are heading our way by the time we get to the middle of February. There are also hints that northern areas of the UK will be drier than would be normally expected during February, with the majority of the wet weather being affecting southern parts. With the suggestion of colder weather, it's not that surprising that some further snowfall is anticipated torwards the end of the period.

Next week

Can we expect the rurn of some cold weather for the middle of February?.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Finally, the cold spell ends!

After a lengthy spell of cold weather which brought icy conditions and some periods of significant snowfall, finally milder Atlantic weather has moved in from the west.

For much of January, high pressure extended from eastern Europe bringing predominantly easterly winds across the UK. The longevity of this set up was largely attributed to the specific configuration of the jet stream, which resulted in a 'blocking high'. The milder, moister air that usually flows from west to east across the UK was kept at bay by the high pressure. As a result, the UK was in a battle ground between the milder Atlantic air and the cold continental air. Much of the snowfall occurred where the two regimes met.

So how long can we expect this period of mobile and milder weather to last? Read on to find out more.....

Monday 28 January—Sunday 3 February

Windy and mild for much of the week.

The working week will get off to a dry, but very windy start for most places. It won't take long for rain to sweep in from the west though, so by Monday afternoon wet and windy conditions will prevail, with storm force winds for northwestern coastal stretches for a time. In addition to the rainfall, river systems are also contending with the recent snow melt, so flooding is expected across many prone areas of the UK.

After an interlude of drier weather on Monday night, Tuesday will bring another spell of very wet and windy weather for all, with the further possibility of severe gales or even storm force winds for northwestern parts of the UK. Mild and moist air moving in from the Atlantic will be the source of the rainfall. Indeed this air will be so mild that we could see temperatures peaking at 12 or even 13 degrees across the south. It's worth noting that overnight into Wednesday, we could see some exceptionally strong winds across northern areas for a time.

By Wednesday, the weather will tend to calm down a little for the majority of places, with just a scattering of showers, but it will remain on the breezy side. Temperatures, although not as high as on Tuesday, will still be around average or just above. A similar scenario is also anticipated for Thursday.

As we head towards the end of the week high pressure is expected to start building across the mid-Atlantic. This process will result in winds veering northerly through Friday, introducing some colder air for a time. Further spells of wet and windy weather are envisaged for next weekend, with temperatures becoming mild in the wetter periods, but with chilly intervals in between the rain bands.

Monday 4 February—Sunday 10 February

Staying wet and windy.

The first full week of February looks to be shaping up in a similar fashion to the last part of January. At the moment it's likely that we'll see the return of a succession of weather systems crossing the UK from the west. As is often the case in a mobile westerly weather scenario, western areas are expected to receive the highest amount of rainfall. Gales and severe gales are also expected to accompany the spells of rain. The strongest winds will be mostly, but not exclusively, centred over northwestern parts of the UK. In between the mild, wet and windy periods, we can expect cooler spells with heavy and thundery showers that could well turn wintry over high ground in the north. The cooler spells will also present the risk of overnight frosts.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February

Will wintry weather return?.

At this stage, it looks as if things will start to turn colder again as we move further into the middle of February. There's a high degree of uncertainty about the details in the forecast, but there are increasing suggestions that northern areas will be on the drier side, with the most precipitation anticipated for southwestern areas of the UK. As always, we will continue to monitor the combination of real time atmospheric observations and computer model forecasts over the coming days and weeks with a view to honing the detail of the forecast for this period.

Next week

A cold and wintry end to February perhaps?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 4 February Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Cold weather bites back!

Last week brought a brief spell of milder weather to the UK with moist and mild air was drawn in from the tropics on southwesterly winds. The highest temperature recorded across the UK on Tuesday 29th January was 14.5 Celsius at Hawarden, Flintshire, a clear 6 or 7 degrees above the regional average for late January!. Both weekend days brought contrasting weather conditions, with Saturday being the predominantly sunnier day, but bitterly cold with a biting northwesterly wind. Sunday brought a good deal of cloud for most and some patchy rain for some, but it was milder.

Sunday's milder airstream has already started to give way to colder air sinking in from the north, and as the week progresses there'll be an increasingly cold theme, with some very unsettled weather to come, particularly early in the week.

What are the details of this ensuing period of wintry weather, and can we expect the cold snap to last?. Read on to find out more.............

Monday 4 February—Sunday 10 February

A cold week ahead with very strong winds at times

The working week gets underway with a strong and cold northwesterly airstream pushing into all parts of the UK. A deep low pressure system will pass to the north of Scotland, introducing gales to many areas. Indeed storm force winds could affect the northwestern extremities of Scotland. Accompanying the gales will be a rash of heavy and squally showers that will turn increasingly wintry through the day. Localised snow accumulations of a few centimetres are anticipated for low level sites, with blizzards bringing considerably more snow across hills. Central and southern areas will stay largely dry though, with some sunny spells, although it will feel bitterly cold in the blustery winds.

By Tuesday the cold air will have spread south to all parts of the UK, with blustery and wintry showers affecting all areas. Some significant but localised snow accumulations can be expected, with the largest totals over hills. The cold northwesterly wind will ease a little, but it will still be a very windy day with further gales west and southwestern areas.

Through Wednesday, the area of low pressure will slowly side in a southeasterly direction down the eastern coasts of the UK and into mainland Europe. This will result in further rainfall, with the rain tending to turn to sleet and snow over the hills.

By Thursday the low pressure system will pass into Europe, leaving a bitterly cold northerly airstream in its wake. This will result in a mix of wintry showers, sunny spells and strong winds for eastern parts of the UK through the rest of the week. High pressure will move into western areas through the end of the week, bringing a good deal of dry and bright, but cold weather.

By next weekend, milder air will edge into western parts of the UK bring some cloud, rain and hill snow. Further to the east, a colder and showery regime is likely to persist.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

More wet and windy weather to come.

As we head into the middle of February, it looks like the UK weather will exhibit a largely unsettled theme. Early in the week a rather weak weather front is expected to cross the UK from west to east, bringing some patchy rain and perhaps some localised hill snow. This front is then expected to clear east, leaving a period of northwesterly winds and scattered showers, with temperatures perhaps dropping a little below average for a time. As the week progresses though, it looks highly probable that we will see the return of a mobile westerly airstream. This scenario will likely draw in numerous weather systems from the Atlantic, bringing periods of rainfall, the risk of some hill snow and some accompanying strong to gale force winds. Towards the end of the week temperatures are expected to be around about, or perhaps just a touch below, what is usually expected in mid-February.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

A cold end to the meteorological winter.

March 1st heralds the beginning of the meteorological spring. There are rather large uncertainties in forecast details with regard to weather details as we head through the end of winter though. It does look likely that the temperatures will slowly fall through this period, with a colder than average spell of weather anticipated, and a chance of some typically wintry weather for all parts fo the UK. A varierty of different forecasting models do offer firm suggestions that there will be an increased risk of overnight frosts heading into March, so at the moment a cold start to the meteorological spring is expected.

Next week

It looks as if we'll have a cold start to spring. Are there any indications of warmer weather heading our way through March? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

A cold and wintry start, becoming less cold later

The working week will get off to a cold start with temperatures widely around or just below freezing. Overnight localised snowfall across southeastern, central and northern areas will quickly abate, but in its wake there will be widespread ice. The remainder of Monday will be a cold and largely cloudy day for many, with the risk of the odd light sleet or snow flurry from time to time. The cloud will tend to break across northern England, Scotland and also southwest England though, affording these areas some winter sunshine.

Another frosty start is anticipated for Tuesday, and conditions will stay cold for the rest of the day. Most places will be dry and cloudy, but there could be a few flurries of sleet and snow and some patchy light rain for some parts of Northern Ireland, Wales and western England through the day.

Through the course of Wednesday, an Atlantic weather system will slowly cross the UK from west to east, bringing a strong southwesterly wind and some significant rainfall for all. Indeed the rain is likely to readily turn to snow across the Pennines and hills of Scotland. Lower lying areas in northeast England and eastern Scotland may also see some significant snowfall later on Wednesday.

By Thursday, the Atlantic weather system is expected to clear into the North Sea, with a showery northwesterly airstream pushing in across all parts that will introduce some slightly milder air, and some sunny spells for many. Friday looks like being a very similar day to Thursday, but with less of a shower risk.

The weekend will get off to a fairly settled start, but a weather system is expected to gradually encroach on the UK from the northwest through the rest of Saturday and Sunday, bringing some cloudy and wet conditions for all.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

Drying up for most, but gradually turning chillier

The wet weather of the weekend should clear away to the southeast by the start of the period. From thereon in, high pressure looks set to build across the UK, introducing a spell of prolonged dry weather for most. There will always be a risk of Atlantic weather systems clipping the northwestern reaches of Northern Ireland and Scotland, but by and large the weather should be dry with some breaks in the cloud allowing a few brighter spells by day. As is often the case though, a winter high pressure system brings the increased risk of some harsh overnight frosts, lingering fog and mist patches, and lower daytime maxima. As a result of the anticipated pressure rise, temperatures are expected to be a little lower than we'd usually expect for the end of February.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

No sign of any milder weather

As is usually the case, confidence in the forecast detail for the longer term period is not particularly high. The latest forecast suggests that the meteorological spring will get off to a fairly chilly start, with temperatures below the average for the time of the year. Expect some frosty nights, and even the possibility of some further sleet and snowfall.

Next week

As we move into the middle of March, are there any signs of some spring-like weather to come?.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 18 February Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Winter ends, but no spring-like weather in sight.

The end of the meteorological winter is upon us, but as of yet there is very little sign of any warmer weather to come.

Last week saw a variety of weather types affect the UK. The varying configurations ranged from Atlantic weather systems that gave a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, to a transient ridge of high pressure that brought slightly milder air to many areas later on in the week.

Through the weekend pressure continued to build across Scandinavia. Indeed the resulting anticyclone will slowly drift into northern Europe as the coming week unfolds. This set-up will establish a progressively colder flow of air across the UK, with many places staying dry throughout the week, as Atlantic weather systems are kept at bay.

Looking further ahead into March and the start of the meteorological spring, there is little sign of any significant change in the weather, with colder air taking hold of the UK for much of the outlook period. There is just a hint that some warmer weather may start to head our way by the middle of March.

Read on for the details.............

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

A quiet week of weather ahead, but turning colder.

The settled weather that we saw through the weekend across all parts of the UK will continue as we head into next week. An anticyclone will remain firmly anchored over Scandinavia and the North Sea.This configuration will result in a mainly easterly airstream crossing the UK through the week.

It will be a chilly start to Monday, with some patchy frost and fog for some. Any fog patches should gradually lift through the morning, and for much of the day conditions will be dry with partly cloudy skies and some spells of sunshine for all, though more prevalent across western areas. Monday night will be another cold night with some patchy frost. There will also be a risk that fog will form quite widely across central and eastern England, and also across parts of Scotland.

Tuesday will get off to a cold and murky start for many, but conditions should brighten up through the morning, with the best of any sunshine will be reserved for western parts. Later in the day a weak weather front will start to gradually drift in from the east, thickening cloud across the majority of the UK, with even a few spots of drizzle possible for eastern areas.

By the middle of the week temperatures will start to fall away a little, with a rather cold and cloudy feel anticipated for all parts. Where cloud is thick enough, there could even be a few patches of sleety drizzle over any higher ground, particularly to the east. There will always be a better chance of brightness in the west though.

Gradually, through the course of Thursday and Friday, even colder air will slowly filter in from the east, bringing further cloudy skies, and daytime maxima that will struggle to get above 3 or 4 degrees Celsius in many areas. There will also be an increasing risk of a few sleet and snow showers to southeastern parts of England.

The decidedly wintry feel will continue well into the weekend with frosty nights, and cold, cloudy days and the further risk of the odd light snow flurry.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 3 March

A cold end to the winter.

An area of high pressure will be anchored to the east of the UK for the start of this period. As a result, the last week of February (and also the last week of the meteorological winter) looks as if it will get off to a cold and predominantly dry and cloudy start. The best of any brighter weather is expected to be across northwestern areas, particularly the west coast of Scotland and the northern reaches of Northern Ireland. Further to the south and east, conditions are expected to be rather dull much of the time, with the cloud thick enough to produce the odd wintry flurry here and there. Frosty nights are also anticipated, despite the extent of the cloud cover.

Later in the week, it looks possible that a weak weather front will slowly traverse from the southwest to the northeast of the UK, but the front is likely to decay as it moves north, so very little precipitation is anticipated.

Heading towards the end of the week and the start of the meteorological spring, high pressure is expected to remain anchored over the UK, bringing cold and dry conditions to all areas, with further overnight frosts and chilly days. Across the far northwest though, there will always be a risk of some windier and damper conditions.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 17 March

Finally some milder weather on the horizon.

March should start on a chilly but dry note with high pressure still expected to dominate the UK weather. At this stage it does look like things will quickly turn a little more unsettled again though, with weather fronts moving in from the Atlantic. There are also increasing indications from a variety of computer models that suggest temperatures will start to turn milder towards the end of the period.

Next week

Will the middle of March bring some truly spring-like weather? Find out next week........

http://www.bbc.co.uk...2635167#outlook

Edited February 18, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 25 February Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Grey end to the month - but what next?

February looks like finishing on a grey not for many of us. There are some subtle hints at brighter times ahead in March, but if you're looking for a bright and sunny spring you may just need to hang on a little longer yet.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 3 March

Difficult to get excited by the weather this week

Cloudy, grey and leaden are all words that you're likely to hear describing the skies this week. In fact, much of the UK is likely to be covered in cloud through the week. To start the week, the best of any cloud breaks are likely to be in the west, by the end of the week the breaks are likely to be in the east.

Throughout the week the temperature is likely to slowly creep up, ending the week near average for the time of year.

Generally speaking we should all remain dry for the week. At times though the cloud will be just about thick enough to squeeze out the odd light drizzly shower.

By the end of the week we are likely to see a weakening weather front approaching from the north which might bring with it a little more rain across Scotland. However, as this band of rain works its way southwards, so it will fizzle out ending up as not much more than a band of cloud.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 10 March

Still cool, still cloudy

In the north of the UK, behind that weather front, things will turn a little unsettled and showery. Though it looks a little warmer than of late, some of these showers could still be a little wintry at times.

Further south, generally things are looking fine and dry but plenty of cloud around for many - perhaps the best of any breaks will be in the south and east.

As far as temperature goes, things should be near or a little below average for the time of year.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 24 March

Has spring sprung yet?

It looks like we haven't quite seen the back of frosty nights yet, with the second half of March trending towards being slightly colder than average.

Early indications are that it may be slightly drier than average in the northern half of the UK and perhaps a little wetter than average in the south.

However, this signal is not particularly strong so could change. It would certainly be worth checking back here next week if your plans involve being outside through late March.

Next week

As we move towards Easter, many will be looking for signs of growing weather. Next week's outlook should give an early indication of how the weather's looking for the gardeners

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 4 March Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Big changes on the way, as the settled spell ends

The month of March has, in recent years, brought the UK some unseasonably warm and sunny weather. However, this March doesn't look like living up to that billing.

After a cool, dry February, and an overall average winter across the UK, the meteorological spring will start on a spring-like note, with some mild and sunny if rather breezy weather. However, it won't be long before we see more typical UK weather, as much more unsettled conditions return to our shores. The temperatures will start to edge down a little too as we head through March.

Monday 4 March—Sunday 10 March

A spring-like start, but a rather soggy end

The start of the week looks like being a rather spring-like one, with some pleasantly warm sunshine developing for many places. However, there will be a noticeable southeasterly breeze, which will take the edge off the temperatures, especially along eastern coasts where the wind will be coming in off a cold North Sea. For most of us though, temperatures into double figures by day will provide welcome relief from the endless cold, grey days many of us have suffered in recent weeks. Nights may still be on the chilly side, perhaps with some fog, especially where skies stay clear and winds ease.

The fine start isn't going to last. We're going to see a change in the weather pattern across the UK, as the large area of high pressure that's been sitting over us for the last couple of weeks slips away eastwards into the continent, allowing lower pressure and active fronts to move in from the Atlantic, something which hasn't happened for quite some time. The change starts from around mid-week, with bands of rain moving in from the southwest to affect eventually all parts of the UK. The rain will be accompanied by a stiff east to southeasterly breeze, but away from the east coast it will still be reasonably mild, with temperatures for many still creeping into double figures by day, and staying above freezing by night.

The weekend looks like staying unsettled, so if you're out and about for Mother's Day on Sunday, you may need to take the waterproofs and a brolly.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

Staying unsettled, and gradually turning colder

The unsettled theme looks like continuing as we head towards the middle of March, and it looks like it's going to become colder.

Some heavy rain is likely at times, more especially towards the south of the UK, because low pressure is likely to remain centred just to the south or southwest of the UK during this period. Rain will tend to fall increasingly as sleet and snow though, initially on high ground but eventually to low levels as we head into the second half of the month. The best of any drier, brighter weather in this period will probably be found towards more northwestern parts of the UK.

Strong winds will accompany the precipitation, with gales possible at times in the far northeast and southwest of the UK, and this will accentuate the increasingly chilly feel to things.

After a reasonably mild start, it looks like temperatures will fall away, dropping back well down into single figures by day again, as winds gradually back more northeasterly. There will also be an increasing risk of overnight frost and ice as the increasingly cold air sets in.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 31 March

A return to more spring-like conditions?

Although there is a lot of uncertainty in the details this far out, it looks like a generally unsettled theme will be maintained, but with a gradual warming, as temperatures recover back towards the seasonal average.

Low pressure will probably stay in charge of our weather, but with the lows tending to become centred more to the west of the UK rather than the south. This should enable the cold east to northeasterly flow that looks like becoming briefly established by mid-month to be replaced by a milder southwesterly flow.

Most of the rain would therefore be found in more western parts of the UK, with the drier conditions tending to be found towards the east or northeast. It will probably be rather windy but at least temperatures should start to recover, with double figure daytime highs likely, and frost becoming increasingly less frequent.

There is still a chance though that the colder conditions hang on for a while, at least until the equinox, before relinquishing their grip.

Next week

Just as we think spring has arrived, it looks like winter's going to make another return. Will winter finally relinquish its grip on the UK by the equinox though?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 11 March Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Winter's back, but for how long?

Last week some places enjoyed spring-like warmth, but we were looking at a gradual cooling for this coming week. However, things have cooled off rather more quickly than initially expected, so much so that we have already been plunged back into mid-winter type conditions. Temperatures are now barely above freezing, and snow is affecting many places, accompanied by a bitter northeasterly wind. The cold is set in for a while, although it should hopefully become a little less bitter by the end of this week.

Monday 11 March—Sunday 17 March

A cold and wintry week to come

This coming week will feel more like mid-January than mid-March. Snow is likely to affect many of us at first, although most of the snow will tend to be in eastern and southern parts of the UK. Frost and ice will also affect most if not all parts, and the cold will be accentuated by a bitter northeasterly wind. As the week progresses, the winds will ease as they back northerly then westerly or southwesterly, which will at least make it feel less cold.

We should all see some brightness or sunshine at times this week, and as the winds back we should see fewer in the way of snow showers. However, we are likely to see cloud increase towards northwestern parts of the UK later in the week, which will bring some showers or more persistent rain, this no doubt preceded by some snow over parts of Scotland and England.

Temperatures will be several degrees below the mid-March average. Initially, daytime highs will be barely above freezing, but by the end of the week we should see some recovery in temperatures, although overnight frost and ice is still expected towards the southeast.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 24 March

Rather unsettled and less cold

As we head through the equinox, it looks like the weather will stay on the cool and unsettled side, with further spells of rain and wind at times. Rain is likely to be preceded by some snow, more especially in northern and eastern parts of the UK. There will be some sunshine too, and out of the wind it will feel quite pleasant.

Although it will be a less cold week, temperatures by day and by night will remain below average, with single figure highs generally expected. Nights will still be rather cold, with frost and ice likely at times.

Monday 25 March—Sunday 7 April

Cool and unsettled conditions to continue

A new month approaches, but there doesn't look like being too much change in the weather. Spring still looks like being put on hold. Most areas are likely to be a little colder than average during the remainder of March and start of April. It will probably be rather unsettled for much of the time, especially towards the south and west, with low pressure generally dominating the weather across the UK but centred just to the west or south of the UK.

Next week

Winter has renewed its grip on the UK, but can spring fight back after the equinox?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 18 March Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Spring refuses to spring

This coming Tuesday sees the spring equinox, and on Sunday 31st March we will all be springing forward our clocks by one hour and lamenting a lost hour of sleep.

However, the lighter evenings will be welcomed by many as thoughts turn to longer, warmer days.

Perhaps a pity, then, that the weather seems resolutely stuck in winter?

Monday 18 March—Sunday 24 March

Spring arrives, winter won't budge

The week begins with low pressure dominating and looks set to end in a similar vein. A cyclonic easterly to south-easterly means it will be mostly unsettled and rather cold. Ice and frost will be night-time hazards, but we'll also be talking about snow on most days as well.

The air across the UK will be cold enough such that any precipitation may fall as snow at times, and this will be the case on Monday and Tuesday in north-eastern parts of the country. The snow will fall over the hills at first, drifting in strong easterly winds, but across the east of Scotland the snow soon be falling at lower levels too. On Tuesday the zone of wintry weather will shift southward, increasing the risk of settling snow across inland parts of northern England and especially higher ground exposed to the brisk easterly wind.

Further south on Monday and Tuesday there will be a mix of sunshine and scattered showers, some of these heavy with a risk of hail and thunder and perhaps some sleet or wet snow in the heaviest ones.

From around midweek a ridge of high pressure starts to nudge southwards, which will help to cut off the strong easterly flow across the north. Wednesday and Thursday will see fewer showers, and overnight there will be fog patches and a widespread frost, locally severe over any lying snow.

On Friday, as an Atlantic low tries to encroach on the UK, a strong southeasterly wind establishes itself. As weather fronts try to push in against the colder air across the north and east of the country, hill snow is likely in the west, with some heavy rain in southwest England. The most noticeable feature on Friday, however, will be the increasingly significant wind chill.

At the weekend, as the battleground between mild and cold sets up over the UK, there is a risk of significant snowfall and even blizzards over central and northern parts of the country.

Monday 25 March—Sunday 31 March

Only the clocks will spring forward

A new month approaches, as does British Summer Time, but it doesn't look as though there'll be much change in the weather. Spring still looks like being put on hold, with a cold easterly likely to persist for much of the time in the north. This will lead to northern and many central areas seeing below of well below average temperatures, with overnight frosts.

Southern parts may see temperatures recovering a little closer to normal, but with low pressure tending to dominate the south and west of the country this isn't likely to be accompanied by much in the way of spring sunshine.

Monday 1 April—Sunday 14 April

New month, same old weather?

As April begins, the pressure pattern looks like becoming easterly for northern parts and more unsettled with west- to south-westerly winds for southern and central parts of the UK.

This will therefore continue the cold theme across northern and eastern parts of the country, with night frosts possible. However, with milder weather arriving on those Atlantic winds, south Wales and southern and central parts of England could see temperatures close to or even a little above the early April average.

Unsettled of course means precipitation, and as a result sunshine will still be lacking despite the trend towards something less cold in the south and southwest.

Next week

Will the milder air make greater inroads across the UK, or will winter bite back again?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 25 March Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Spring arrives, but still no sign of mild weather!

The weather system that brought such disruptive conditions across the UK through the back end of last week and into Saturday finally petered out during Sunday, leaving a largely dry end to the weekend. However, conditions remained bitingly cold in the brisk easterly wind.

For those in search of some spring-like weather, the coming week's forecast is unlikely to install any great sense of joyous anticipation, with yet further wintry conditions envisaged for the UK in its entirety. The strong easterly winds will continue to drag in very cold air from the near continent and Scandinavia through the week.

There isn't a great deal of optimism as we move through the Easter weekend and into April either. Milder Atlantic air will start to gradually move into southern and central areas from the Atlantic. There's still a fair amount of uncertainty as to how quickly this milder air will advance though, and how far north it will eventually reach, but in the region where this milder air meets the cold, we're likely to see yet more snow.

Keep hanging in there though, with the sun's power increasing day on day as we head further into spring, sooner or later, the warmer air will win out!

Read on to find out the details................

Monday 25 March—Sunday 31 March

Staying bitterly cold.

The week will get underway with a widespread, penetrating frost and the same bitingly cold easterly wind that plagued the UK through the previous weekend. Conditions should be largely dry though, with just a few light snow showers peppering northern and eastern areas. Daytime highs will be so low that the weekend's snow will struggle to melt at all. The snow showers aren't expected to bring any significant accumulations. There could also be some reasonably bright spells. A very cold night will follow with another severe frost and some icy patches.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be similarly cold days, with the best of any brightness to be found across western parts, and a few snow showers, again chiefly focussed around northern and eastern areas. Nights will again be frosty. By Thursday the strong easterly wind will start to ease, but the cold feel will prevail, again with snow showers across northeastern parts.

Later on Thursday and through Friday, a weather system will start to encroach on the UK from the southwest. At the moment there's quite a lot of uncertainty as to how quickly the system will move north-eastwards. It does look likely that southwestern areas will see a good deal of rain as we head towards the end of the week, preceded by some snow over the moors and tors. As this area of rain moves further northeast and pushes against the cold air, there's an increasing risk of some significant snowfall across southern and central areas of the UK towards the weekend. Northern areas will probably hang on to the bitterly cold theme though, with mainly dry weather and the odd snow shower.

There's still quite a bit to play for in terms of the overall theme for the Easter Weekend, but at this stage, the most likely scenario is cold, bright and mainly dry in the north and east, a wintry spell of weather for central areas, and slightly less cold but with heavy rain for the south. Stay in touch with the forecast to keep abreast of the details!

Monday 1 April—Sunday 7 April

March not really going out like a lamb!

So, it looks likely there'll be a prevailing cold feel to the Easter weekend and the end of March, with only the far northeast having any serious chance of avoiding the unsettled weather. Through the first week of April it does look as if weather conditions across the UK will settle down a little though, with the rain and snow envisaged for southern and central areas easing off, and northern parts staying on the drier side, but with further wintry showers. As the week progresses, it's even possible that sunny spells will become more prevalent for most areas. Temperatures will remain on the low side though, with most parts of the UK struggling to reach seasonal average values.

Monday 8 April—Sunday 21 April

Milder into mid-April?

As we move into the middle of April, although there is still a significant level of uncertainty surrounding the details of the forecast, there are signs that the milder Atlantic air will start to make inroads into southern areas. As a result it looks as if southern parts of England and Wales will see a spell of wet and windy weather early in the period, with temperatures rising close to, if not just a touch below, average.

Further north, the start of this period still looks rather wintry with very low temperatures, although with a reasonable amount of dry and bright weather. A few snow showers can't be ruled out from time to time though, particularly over higher ground.

Towards the end of the period there is a chance that milder air will finally start to win out, returning the UK to temperatures that are closer to the seasonal average, accompanied by some further spells of wet and windy weather.

Next week

Can we finally look forward to some warmer weather!? Find out next week.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 1 April Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

The cold weather drags on!

The Easter weekend marked the end of what has turned out to be an exceptionally cold March. At the time of writing, provisional statistics suggested that the March of 2013 stands to be the coldest March since 1962 in terms of overall mean temperature, with average daytime maximum temperature values threatening the all-time lowest values (since records began in 1910). We'll have to wait for absolute confirmation of these records around the middle of the week when all the relevant information has been collated, but even the preliminary calculations indicate just how exceptionally cold the weather has been.

So what can we expect through the course of April? The cold easterly winds persist through the coming week as high pressure remains anchored to the northeast for the UK. There are some indications though, that as we head towards the middle of the month, milder Atlantic air will start to make inroads across the UK. As we're well past the vernal equinox now, the sun's effect on warming our atmosphere is increasing day on day, so there is plenty to be positive about, despite the persistence of this recent cold spell!

Read on to find out more.........................

Monday 1 April—Sunday 7 April

More of the same......

It's fairly safe to say that the patience of a large section of the British public is starting to wear a bit thin with regards to the recent cold weather. Unfortunately, this week will bring a continuation of the bitter conditions. High pressure centred just to the northeast of Scotland will maintain a cold and mainly easterly feed of air across the UK. The origins of the air that will push over the UK include Scandinavia, western Russia and northern Europe, which goes some way to explaining the extremities of recent weeks.

Bank Holiday Monday will get off to a cold and frosty start, with a significant chance that one or two places in the north that have some residual snow cover could see temperatures dip down to minus 10 to minus 12 Celsius first thing. The daytime period will bring plenty of dry and bright weather, with some good sunny spells around, particularly to the west. It won't be a completely dry picture though with any thicker areas of cloud bringing the potential for the odd snow flurry, chiefly for the eastern counties of England. Nevertheless, despite the cold feel (exacerbated across southern parts by a strong wind), at least conditions will be bright and largely dry.

Another very cold and frosty night is anticipated into Tuesday, with the further potential for some very low temperatures again, particularly in the north where the wind will always be lighter.

For the remainder of the week, the story stays pretty much unchanged with temperatures remaining well below average by both day and night. On the upside though, save for a few isolated snow flurries, there should be some spells of sunshine by day, particularly in the west. Perhaps the most significant factor of this week's weather will be the strong easterly wind that is envisaged for the southern half of the UK at times, which will give a particularly bitter feel to the weather, particularly for coastal areas of East Anglia and southeast England.

Monday 8 April—Sunday 14 April

Cold again, but..........................

As we move into the second week of April, by now you probably won't be at all surprised to read that the forecast suggests a high likelihood of the prevalence of a cold east to northeasterly wind. Initially it will likely be a further story of harsh overnight frosts, followed by cold and mainly dry days with a few sunny spells and the risk of some snow showers in the east.

However as we approach the middle of the period, the chance of a few subtle, yet notable changes does start to arise. At this stage it looks like the cold easterly wind will start to slowly back around to come from a northerly direction. Although this will make little material difference to conditions as a whole (save for the snow shower activity shifting from eastern areas to places exposed to a northerly wind), it does start to open the door to the possibilty that the wind will eventually back all the way around to the west, thereby opening the door for some midler Atlantic air.

Indeed, the lastest medium range forecast does suggest that as we approach the middle of April, a westerly feed of mild Atlantic air will gradually introduce some warmer, but more unsettled conditions to the UK. This means that temperatures should start to recover to nearer average values for April. Don't be surprised if this temperature recovery is accompanied by a spell of rather wet and windy weather though!

Monday 15 April—Sunday 28 April

Finally! A sign of some milder, but wetter weather

The latest forecast for the latter half of April lends itself to the idea that there will continue to be a gradual transition to temperatures more fitting of an average April, as was the case towards the end of the previous period. In terms of precipitation though, the current story is a little different. Various computer model forecasts are indicating that April will be fairly average in terms of rainfall. In view of the fact that the first two weeks of April are set to be largely dry, this would imply that the bulk of April's rainfall will fall in the last two weeks. So we can infer that as the end of April approaches, we're likely to welcome the return of average temperatures, but we can also expect some wet and windy weather, at least for a time anyway.

Next week

If March was cold, and April looks like being the transition month, can we say with any degree of certainty that May will be fine?. Find out more next week...............

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 8 April Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A big change on the way - eventually!

After a lengthy spell of mainly settled albeit mostly cold weather, it looks like things are about to change across the United Kingdom over the coming week. Low pressure will become the dominant force as we move through the next few days, bringing a change to much more unsettled weather for all of us. The change will be a gradual one, and temperatures in southern parts of the UK should start to recover to close to average, but cold air will linger in the north, with snow over hills. Beyond next week, things may settle down a bit and warm up further, although unsettled conditions will probably never be too far away.

Monday 8 April—Sunday 14 April

Low pressure revisits our shores

It looks like we are finally going to say goodbye to the persistent, cold but dry easterly airflow that has plagued us for so long. In its place, low pressure will be making a concerted effort to establish itself across the UK, bringing much more unsettled conditions for us all. It will often be windy, and some substantial rain is likely, especially in more southern parts of the UK.

The return of southwesterly winds in southern parts of the UK will introduce milder conditions, with temperatures widely rising into double figures by day, which is closer to where they should be at this time of the year. Frost and ice are unlikely, which will be a welcome relief to gardeners.

In northern parts of the UK, the weather will actually cool off compared to recent days, as a cold, raw east to northeasterly flow becomes established. Rain and hill snow will eventually make its way up here during the second half of this coming week, so after a dry and bright start something more akin to winter will return here. The rain will be welcome in western parts of Scotland, where it has been very dry of late, and this should help to extinguish the forest fires there.

By next weekend, there are signs of pressure building across the UK, as the low pressure slips away into the North Sea. This would mean a return to chilly and possibly frosty nights, but pleasant days with some decent spells of sunshine.

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April

Settling down and warming up for a time

There are signs that the second half of April will be rather more seasonal than the first half. High pressure may build in from the west or southwest for a time and produce some more settled conditions across most parts, and given the warmer source, this should mean temperatures around or even a little above average for many parts, especially towards the south and east, although nights will still be rather chilly. The weather may become more unsettled towards the northwest later in this period though, but with a southwesterly flow developing for most places, this should mean some reasonable temperatures continuing.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 5 May

A seasonal mix of sunny spells and some rain

Current indications suggest conditions during the latter part of April and early May being fairly typical for the time of year. This would leave temperatures often nearer average, though given colder than average seas, coastal areas may be quite chilly whenever sea breezes occur. Meanwhile, during any settled spells the risk of overnight ground frost is, perhaps, slightly greater than average. Unsettled, changeable conditions will probably still affect some northern and western parts early in this forecast period. Otherwise, in the absence of any strong signals for trends in precipitation for late April into early May, nearer average rainfall amounts are considered most likely.

Next week

It looks like we'll be saying goodbye to winter this week, so can we now finally say a proper hello to spring, or will there be another twist?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 15 April Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook Summary

Finally some warm weather! But will it last?

Atlantic weather systems, with their associated milder air, finally made inroads across the UK through the course of the weekend, marking an end to the exceptionally lengthy spell of cold weather. Indeed, those in the east of England could have been forgiven for thinking the weather had missed spring altogether and skipped straight to summer on Sunday. Temperatures exceeded the 20 degrees Celsius-mark across the region, making it the hottest day of the year so far.

Although not as warm as that, this week is nevertheless getting off to a pleasant start, with temperatures on Monday rising into the mid-teens again. As the week continues, conditions will turn a little more unsettled, with plenty of wet and windy weather anticipated for most parts.

However, temperatures more typical of April are expected and some southern parts of the UK may even become a little warmer during any drier and brighter interludes.

But by the end of the week we could see a return of the night-time frosts...

Monday 15 April—Sunday 21 April Often windy, sometimes wet

The front that brought rain and strong winds to the west and north of the UK over the weekend has cleared away eastwards introducing a cooler, showery air-mass for Monday. However, it will still be mild for most with some sunshine between the showers.

Much of the rest of the week will be warmer than it has been for some time but also unsettled with processions of weather systems crossing the country now that the blocking area of high pressure has moved away.

Two Atlantic low pressure systems will bring good doses of rain to much of the country on Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some spots could pick up an inch of rain from each spell.

On Thursday, a showery air-mass follows behind the second low, leading to some heavy showers. Severe gales may threaten the northeast; in fact the wind will also be a feature of the week thanks to those Atlantic lows.

By Friday, pressure will be building across the UK, settling things down. The showers will fade although not before they turn to snow over the tops of the Scottish mountains. A frost will follow overnight, but that will lead into the weekend on a settled note.

Weather systems won't be far away over the weekend but may tend to push across more western and northern areas, whilst pressure remains higher towards the south and east.

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April A northwest/southeast split continues?

The latest information suggests that as we head into the last week of April the UK weather will continue to be largely influenced by Atlantic weather systems, keeping any colder continental air at bay.

It does look increasingly likely that much of the weather activity will tend to be more focussed across northwestern areas of the UK, with fairly regular spells of wet and windy weather. Conversely, to the southeast current indications suggest that southern and eastern parts of the UK stand a greater chance of seeing more prolonged spells of dry and bright weather.

It looks as if temperatures will settle at values that are typical for this time of year although some inland areas in the southeast that experience lengthy dry spells may become a little warmer than average at times. It's worth noting, that in view of the fact that the seas surrounding the UK are particularly cold at present, coastal areas that experience an onshore wind will be on the chilly side. Overnight frosts are expected to be few and far between during this period but will still be possible in prone spots under calm winds and clear skies.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 12 May April showers to bring forth May flowers?

At time of writing, the longer term outlook for early May suggests fairly typical weather for the time of year, meaning that temperatures could average out at fairly close to normal.

This of course could mask the potential for some warm days inland, whilst coastal areas that have an onshore breeze will be kept cooler thanks to sea temperatures that are a few degrees below average for the time of year. Patchy overnight frosts could still be a threat to spring blooms under settled conditions.

There is some suggestion that the northwest-southeast split will continue into the early part of May with unsettled and changeable conditions affecting more northern and western parts whilst higher pressure holds on elsewhere. However, no strong signal for precipitation thereafter suggests that nearer average rainfall amounts are more likely during this period.

Next week

In 2012 a new May maximum temperature record was set for Scotland on the 25th, whilst plentiful rain earlier in the month meant drought orders parts of in England were lifted. What will the remainder of this May bring?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 22 April Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

Spring has sprung, but will May be mild!?

The start of April finally brought a transition from the persistent and bitterly cold easterly winds that made for a rather unpleasant March. Indeed, so far this month, large areas of the country have enjoyed at least some decent spring weather, with temperatures peaking at 22 Celsius across parts of East Anglia and southeast England on Sunday 14th April. Despite this spell of significantly milder weather though, average temperatures are still running just a touch below what we'd expect for April. Aside from southern coastal areas of England and central parts of Scotland, most other parts of the UK have so far also been a lot drier than we would normally expect at this time of year.

So what does the rest of April hold in store, and will we see further spells of pleasant spring weather as we move into the first half of May?.

This week will bring some spells of rather unsettled weather, chiefly, but not exclusively, to northwestern parts of the UK. There's a good chance of some warmer weather across southeastern areas at times, but as the week draws to a close, chillier north to northwesterly winds will start to change the complexion of the UK weather again, heralding a changeable start to May.

Read on to find out the details..........

 

Monday 22 April—Sunday 28 April Turning cloudier and mild, then showery and chilly

Most parts of the UK had a fine start to the weekend with unbroken sunshine for much of England and Wales on Saturday. A weather front slowly crept across the UK from the northwest through the rest of the weekend though, bringing some cloud and rain for many places and opening the door to more showery and blustery westerly winds.

Much of that showery activity eased off during the early part of Monday, and the working week is expected to get off to a largely dry start, with some good spells of brightness for the east. Further west though, a weak weather front will be swept in by strengthening westerly winds, and the cloud and outbreaks of showery rain affecting Northern Ireland and western Scotland from the off will gradually spread east to all parts through the day.

During Tuesday and Wednesday, it's anticipated that a milder feed of southwesterly winds will bring a fair amount of cloud to UK skies, meaning frost-free nights. Eastern parts are likely to see some breaks in the cloud at times though, and by day this could potentially lead to temperatures peaking in the high teens or low twenties for some eastern counties of England. Southwestern areas will probably see more in the way of cloud and coastal fog though as the mild air pulls in over the cold spring seas. Northern and western parts of the UK will be affected by weather fronts that will bring plenty of rain and some fresh to strong winds.

Through Thursday and Friday the milder air of mid-week will slowly migrate away to the southeast, giving way to a much cooler north to northwesterly airstream. By the end of the week, heavy and occasionally thundery showers will affect most places at times, and these showers might even turn a little wintry over northern hills. Expect the cooler and showery conditions to persist into next weekend, along with some frosty nights.

 

 

Monday 29 April—Sunday 5 May A chilly start to May

April is set to end on a rather cool note, with a north to northwesterly airstream persisting into the first week of May. Showers, that will often form into bands, are expected to sweep southeastwards across most parts of the UK at times, although the main areas under threat will always be western and northern districts. The showers are likely to turn fairly heavy at times, with thunder and hail always a possibility. There's also a risk of some sleet and snow for the higher ground of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern parts of England through the course of the week, indicating just how much chillier the air will feel over northern areas. Overnight frosts will also be a distinct possibility. Strong winds are also envisaged for northern parts of the UK at times.

 

Monday 6 May—Sunday 19 May Cooler in the east, warmer in the west.

As May unfolds, it's looking increasingly likely that the unsettled northwesterly wind will slowly veer around to an easterly drift, bringing a spell of more settled and generally dry weather. After a long winter, during which there were several phases of cold easterly winds, the North Sea is now unusually cold, with sea surface temperatures currently well below values usually expected during spring. The combination of these cold sea surface temperatures and the easterly wind will mean that areas close to the eastern coastlines of the UK will likely stay on the chilly and rather cloudy side into the middle of May. However, central and western parts are expected to have clearer skies, with any spring sunshine resulting in daytime highs that will be warmer than average.

Next week

With summer approaching, is there any sign of warm weather to come?........

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited April 22, 2013 by Stuart

[NeilN]

Typical May fare really. Damn you jetstream.

[Stuart]

Monday 29 April Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

N'er cast a clout 'til May be out

The first few days of April featured a biting easterly wind which brought cold and dry weather to the UK. Thereafter we saw conditions returning to more typical April fare with some warm and dry days as well spells of rain and of course not forgetting our April showers.

May looks as though it could bring some spells of pleasant spring weather with high pressure building at times. However it won’t all be plain sailing, with periods of rain expected especially during the first part of the month and also towards the end. Additionally gardeners will want to bear in mind the continued risk of overnight frosts.

Monday 29 April—Sunday 5 May A mixed May bag

This week starts with a cool, unstable north-westerly flow leading to sunny spells and a scattering of showers. As pressure builds these showers die away and much of the UK will see some sunshine through the middle of the week although rain will affect northern areas at times and the far southeast may get some showers. Frost will be a threat overnight.

 

By Friday, a low in the northwest will bring some heavy rain and strong winds to northern areas with cloudier, wetter weather moving southeastwards across the country.

The confidence in the detail for the bank holiday weekend is lower than average but current indications are for an unsettled couple of days.

Saturday may start with a band of rain in the southeast which should clear to leave sunny spells and showers across the country.

The heaviest showers and strongest winds are likely to be in the northwest and especially on Saturday, with thunder and hail a possibility. There is also a risk of some more persistent rain for a time in southern areas. Temperatures will be on the cool side, particularly in the northwest where the strength of the wind will add to the chilly feel.

 

Monday 6 May—Sunday 12 May A glimpse of high pressure

For the May Bank Holiday and the start of the working week, high pressure will gradually build across Scandinavia. Northern parts of the UK should start to see more settled conditions developing during the first part of the week although easterly winds travelling across the cold North Sea may make lead to suppressed temperatures in eastern fringes while the northwest should be more favoured for higher temperatures.

The second half of the week may bring another area of low pressure into the northwest leading to a spell of wet and windy weather here.

Southern areas may start rather unsettled with some showers or more persistent rain initially. Gradually conditions should improve with more dry, bright weather developing for the second half of the week.

Temperatures will start on the cool side but it should become warmer through the week. Overnight frosts will continue to be a risk in many areas at times.

By the end of the week there are indications that the high will slowly start to erode.

 

Monday 13 May—Sunday 26 May West is best

By the middle of May our weather models indicate that the weakening high may slip westwards, allowing a more north or northeasterly flow to start to become established.

This would lead to lower than average temperatures, both by day and night with frost continuing to be an issue at times.

However, there may be a fair amount of dry, bright weather and it will feel pleasantly warm in any sunshine although spells of rain are also anticipated, especially towards the end of the month. The brightest and driest conditions will most likely be in the west.

Next week

Any sign of the sunshine for for the Spring Bank Holiday?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

Edited April 29, 2013 by Stuart

[049balt]

A really mixed outlook, at best.

[Stuart]

Monday 6 May Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

April showers returning for those May flowers

After a mostly fine Bank Holiday, the weather will rapidly go downhill this week, with a spell of wet and windy weather for us all. We will then see a return of sunshine and showers, most of these in the north and west. A northwest - southeast split looks like developing and persisting for quite a while, with the northwest seeing most of the cool, wet and occasionally windy weather whilst the southeast sees the best of the drier, sunnier and warmer weather.

 

Monday 6 May—Sunday 12 May Fine at first, but rapidly downhill

This coming week starts off on a largely fine and warm note, rather unusually for the early May Bank Holiday! Most parts of the United Kingdom will enjoy some warm late spring sunshine, which will see temperatures in some places soaring to their highest values of the year so far. The current warmest day of 2013 so far with a high of 23C could be challenged if not beaten on Monday. Northern and western Scotland look like missing out on this warmth though, as here it is expected to be cool and cloudy with some rain.

Make the most of this latest brief taste of summery conditions, because they aren't going to last. Many eastern parts of the UK will have another fine and warm day on Tuesday, but cloud and rain will work its way into western parts, and this will spread east overnight into Wednesday. Some heavy rain is likely, and some strong winds will accompany the rain. The rain will clear to sunshine and showers during Wednesday, most of the showers being in the north and west. It'll also become cooler and fresher for us all.

Another spell of wet and very windy weather will affect us all on Thursday. The wettest and windiest weather is expected to be across northern and western England and Wales, with coastal gales likely. This will clear to sunshine and showers again for Friday and the weekend, although another band of rain will sweep eastwards during Friday afternoon and evening.

 

Monday 13 May—Sunday 19 May A cool and showery mix for us all

As we head through the middle of May, it looks like the weather across the UK is going to be more akin to April.

Early indications are that the winds will gradually become more northwesterly through this period, which will mean cool and unsettled weather for most of us.

The wettest weather will tend to be towards the northwest of the UK, but showers or longer spells of rain are possible anywhere. The best of the drier, brighter weather on offer will tend to be found towards the southeast, and here temperatures will probably mostly be close to the mid-May average, which is the mid-to-high teens Celsius, although in any wetter weather it will feel cool. It'll be distinctly chilly towards the northwest of the UK though, and in any drier spells here, there is an increasing risk of ground frost.

 

Monday 20 May—Sunday 2 June A new month looms, but little change is expected

It looks like the weather for the remainder of May and the start of June will continue in a similar vein.

A mainly westerly or northwesterly flow is expected, which will maintain the mainly cool and rather unsettled conditions, particularly in the northwestern half of the UK, with the best of any drier, brighter weather remaining towards the southeast. A continued risk of ground frost remains in any clearer spells overnight, more especially in the north.

There is, though, a chance things may settle down a little as we head towards June, and if this happens then we would see slightly warmer weather.

Given its strength at this time of the year, it will feel pleasantly warm in the sun, and towards the southeast temperatures will be close to the seasonal average at times during this period, which means high-teens Celsius by day.

Next week

Summer's just around the corner, but will the weather play ball or will we continue to see more spring-like conditions?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited May 6, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 13 May Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Will summer ever arrive?

 

The weather continues to keep a spring-like feel with sunshine and showers the name of the game in most areas. However, an area of high pressure looks set to build over Scandinavia towards the end of May. This will allow easterly winds to develop and force temperatures over the UK to take a tumble. This looks likely to continue into early June with rain bands threatening the south and the east of the UK while the north and west fair better.

 

Monday 13 May—Sunday 19 May Is April set to make a return?

Unfortunately, the warm spring sunshine we saw at the start of last week looks like it has left the UK for the coming week at least with temperatures expected to be feeling below average for this time of year. This will bring the risk of ground frosts in northern rural locations. The coming week looks like it will remain unfriendly with rain for most and temperatures feeling chilly for this time of year. Showers look set to continue over much of the country with the best of the drier and brighter spells in the north and west. From time to time showery rain may turn more persistent bringing wetter spells, especially over south east England where things could turn a little thundery.

 

Monday 20 May—Sunday 26 May Showers continuing for most

It looks like the remainder of May will probably continue in the same vein. The April-like showery spell will be with us to start the week, but it will slowly lose its grip as high pressure builds over Scandinavia to provide a gradual improvement in some areas. Showers will continue to plague the UK for most of the period progressively become less frequent. There is also the possibility of more persistent bands of rain moving into the east and south of the UK later in the period as the high pressure continues to build over Scandinavia. Temperatures initially will be feeling near to average for this time of year giving highs in the mid to high teens so feeling pleasant in drier spells.

 

Monday 27 May—Sunday 9 June June is arriving; is summer arriving too?

Drier and brighter conditions look set for the start of June though there will be some cloud and rain around. Unfortunately temperatures look like they will be little disappointing hovering slightly below average for this time of year especially in the south where it could be described as distinctly cool. However, there is a chance things could warm up later in the period. Sheltered western parts of Scotland look like they could be seeing the best of the weather during this period with plenty of sunshine and largely dry.

Next week

With June quickly approaching will we ever loose the April-like showers?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited May 13, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 20 May Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Cool start but with signs of summer on the horizon

 

A rather cool and mainly unsettled picture looks like dominating the United Kingdom over the next couple of weeks.

 

It won't be all doom and gloom though, as there will be some drier and warmer weather at times, especially as we head into June.

 

Monday 20 May—Sunday 26 May Turning cooler

 

This week high pressure sits to the west of the UK with low pressure developing in the North Sea. The ‘squeeze’ between the two will cause winds to funnel down from a

 

northerly direction, causing the reasonably warm conditions at the beginning of the week to turn increasingly cool, with temperatures falling below the late May average. It's

 

possible for a time later in the week that we may see sufficiently cold air being dragged down from the north for snow over the Scottish mountains, and nights may be cold

enough for a touch of ground frost.

 

At the same time the low pressure in the North Sea will mean windy, showery conditions will often affect eastern areas during the second half of the week. Central and western locations will be more likely to experience dry and bright weather.

 

This east-west split is likely to remain in place into the Bank Holiday weekend with the brightest weather in the west, and the more unsettled conditions occurring further east and southeast. The continuing northerly winds will keep temperatures on the low side.

 

Monday 27 May—Sunday 2 June An unsettled end to spring

 

As a new month and new season loom, there's not a great deal of change to the unsettled theme, however temperatures may eventually start to recover.

It looks like the cool northerly flow and unsettled picture will continue to the end of May, with further showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the east. This includes Bank Holiday Monday.

 

Again, there will be some drier, sunnier weather to enjoy, and in the sun it will feel pleasantly warm, given how high and strong the sun is at this time of the year. Perhaps the best of the drier weather will once again be found towards more western and southwestern parts of the UK.

However, as we move into June, the winds may start to swing to westerlies. Should this happen it would allow temperatures to return to more typical values for the time of year.

 

Monday 3 June—Sunday 16 June Signs of a promosing start to summer?

Heading into the first part of June there are signs that the Azores high may build across the country from the southwest. This would allow the weather to settle, with drier than

 

normal conditions for many areas, especially the north and west.

 

With temperatures around average for June, it would feel warm in any sunshine but cooler around the coasts where sea breezes develop by day.

 

Variable amounts of cloud are likely to drift across the country but some decent sunshine would also be expected. The south and east would be most likely to see some showers breaking out from time to time.

 

Next week

 

It doesn't look like the late May Bank Holiday will be as nice as the one in early May, but can June provide us with some more seasonal weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Edited May 20, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook

 

Summary

 

Unsettled weather set to continue.

 

With many parts of England and Wales being treated to some lovely sunshine over the bank holiday weekend the question on many peoples lips will be whether it looks set to last. Unfortunately, the signs of summer's arrival continue to look distant with unsettled weather looking like the main player in the UK weather forecast ahead. However, there are a few sunnier interludes on the horizon and, given the time of year, it should feel pleasantly warm at times.

 

  Monday 27 May—Sunday 2 June

 

Sunshine set to last?

 

Sadly, it doesn't look like the summer sunshine from the Bank Holiday weekend is set to stay. This coming week looks like it is going to be fairly unsettled with both scattered showers and longer spells of rain affecting the UK at times. Temperatures are likely to be feeling cool for this time of year bringing the risk of a rural ground frost overnight in prone locations. There should be some sunnier spells intertwined through this week though, and, in the sunshine it will feel pleasantly warm.

 

  Monday 3 June—Sunday 9 June

 

A change in northern and western parts.

 

Despite June's arrival there looks unlikely we will see any change in the extremely disappointing temperatures of late. A north west, south east split looks set to develop into the first week of June with the coolest and wettest of conditions through the south and east. However, northern and western parts will see the best of drier and brighter weather though showers are possible at times and some of these could be heavy with hail and thunder. Temperatures will continue to feel disappointing in the south and east - below what we would expect for this time of year. But in the drier and brighter weather of the north and west it should feel pleasantly warm in the sun.

 

  Monday 10 June—Sunday 23 June

 

Are we about to see summer's arrival?

 

At this early stage it is looking like high pressure stays close to the UK which would continue to bring a cool flow over the UK with further spells of unsettled weather.

Temperatures should continue to feel cooler than average for June, with parts of the east feeling extremely disappointing. But it will still feel pleasant in sunnier interludes given how strong and high the sun is at this time of year.

 

Next week

 

Looking ahead to August will summer finally start to show its hand?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited May 27, 2013 by Gavin.

[weather_it_will]

Monday 10 June—Sunday 23 June  

 

Will the weather ever settle down?

During the second half of June, we are all likely to see a mixture of showers or longer spells of rain, and drier, brighter interludes, as no one particular weather pattern dominates. The north and west of the United Kingdom is perhaps still likely to see the best of any brightness though. It will be cool in the rain but will feel warm in the sun, although on the whole temperatures are likely to remain below average for June

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

 

 

.

Edited May 30, 2013 by Hot Wet Windy Cold No Snow

[johnholmes]

you really do seem to enjoy posting a negative slant on bits you pick up from other posters.

Is there any chance of a post with your views with charts to illustrate them please?