BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Monday 23 July Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Summer, but for how long?

After three and a half months of miserable weather that has seen weather records tumble as quickly as the rain has been falling, summer has finally bothered to put in an appearance this week for some... but how long will it last?

Monday 23 July—Sunday 29 July

Rain in the north, hot and sunny in the south

A hot and sunny start to the week for most of England and Wales, however a slow moving weather front will bring cloud and rain to Scotland and Northern Ireland. This weather front will gradually sink southwards through the week with the rain gradually dying out as it moves into central parts of the British Isles midweek.

The hot sunshine meanwhile will last most of the week in southeast Wales and southern England. Scotland and Northern Ireland will gradually brighten up from Wednesday with the best of the sunshine in eastern parts.

By the end of the week the weather is likely to turn increasingly unsettled with a threat of showers or thunderstorms breaking out.

Monday 30 July—Sunday 5 August

A more unsettled week, especially to the northwest

The weather looks like starting on an unsettled note with rain or showers affecting many areas. The northwest of the British Isles will then continue with an unsettled pattern with the winds from the west or northwest. It won't be particularly warm for the time of year.

In the south, there may be an improvement later in the week with fewer showers. Warm air is never too far away, so there will probably be some warmer, drier spells.

Monday 6 August—Sunday 19 August

Changeable weather expected

It is most likely that the weather will remain changeable. The south is most likely to see the best of any dry, bright, and at times warm weather, particularly at first. Some rain is likely in places but overall, conditions are unlikely to be as bad as we've seen so far this summer. A lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather across the whole country currently looks unlikely.

Next week

It is likely that we will continue to see a north-south split with the weather with southern parts having the best of any drier sunnier spells, the northwest more prown to showers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook

Summary

The Olympics are here, but so are the showers

High pressure dominated the weather last week. The jet stream finally pushed north and many of us had the summer sunshine we had been hoping for. It was dry and sunny for many and very warm, especially in the south. We had the highest temperature of the year so far - 30.7C at St James's Park.

We kept a close eye on Friday’s weather, with the headache of showers in the London areas and a small risk of rain at the Olympic Park for the opening ceremony. In the build up there was a small shower but the ceremony was thankfully dry.

This week high pressure will push back south allowing frontal systems to move across the UK.

Monday 30 July—Sunday 5 August

Low pressure returns with cooler, wetter weather

It will be a cool end to the month as frontal systems bring wet weather back to most areas.

Generally it will be an unsettled start to the week with sunshine and showers. During the middle of the week, low pressure will approach from the west bringing cloudy skies and outbreaks of rain to all. Rain will be heavy in the west with gusty winds.

The low pressure will sit to the west for the end of the week bringing a mix of sunny spells and showers to all areas, possibly merging into persistent rain across the north and west. The best of any sunny spells will be in the east. It will be windy at times with temperatures close to or just below average, especially in any rain.

Monday 6 August—Sunday 12 August

Still sunshine and showers

High pressure will linger close to the south and lower pressure will sit close to the north. The remainder of the period will see further sunshine and showers, again merging into longer spells of rain in places, particularly towards the far north.

It will continue to be rather cool but temperatures may recover in any sunnier spells towards the south and east. By the end of the period, some longer spells of drier weather may develop across southern parts with temperatures recovering closer to average.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 26 August

No heat wave

A lengthy spell of hot, sunny weather across the whole country currently looks unlikely towards the end of August. It is most likely that the weather will remain changeable with southern areas having the best of any dry, bright and at times warm weather. Some rain is likely in places, which may be heavy at times, most likely further north.

Next week

Will August bring us some summer sunshine?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 6 August Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Prepare for another fleeting taste of summer

August, in meteorological terms, presents the last chance for the summer of 2012 to redeem itself. If that is, you haven't already given up on it. The year thus far has disappointed. The odd week in both March and May provided an all too brief taste of spring warmth. The third week of July also flattered to deceive after a cloudy, cool and wet first half of the month.

Initial prospects in the forecast period aren't that enthralling. No signs of a significant high to raise pressure or spirits at first. Given the nature of 2012, perhaps we should look for smaller crumbs of comfort? Having thus managed your expectations, I can offer the hope of a few days of settled weather over northern areas from midweek onwards. Good news at last for haymakers and the general populous.

Monday 6 August—Sunday 12 August

Low pressure gives way to brighten prospects

Low pressure will sit close to the east of the British Isles in the first part of the week but pressure will build with time from midweek. The respite will be just that, as another low may come to dominate as early as Sunday.

Monday looks to be another day of sunny spells and showers, some heavy and thundery, with the potential for some localised flooding and travel disruption. Tuesday will bring Atlantic fronts to Wales and southern England, offering the prospect of overcast skies and rain. Much of northern Britain will be brighter with a scattering of showers, especially in Scotland. Rain and low cloud may linger on into Wednesday but northern areas will begin to dry out.

By Wednesday night, the developing high will bring dry conditions across much of the British Isles. Whilst not producing wall to wall sunshine, temperatures across the south of England will be above the norm until the weekend.

No significant change is expected until Saturday when some south-western areas may see showers. A transition to more unsettled weather is expected to follow to all other parts by Sunday.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August

Westerlies are the winds of change

Mention may well be made of the Azores high in the forecasts for the week but it looks unlikely that it will dominate in all areas. High pressure will lie to the south of the British Isles, generating a west to south-westerly airstream. This will introduce showers or longer spells of rain to many areas away from southern England, which may just benefit from the high's influence.

Sunshine amounts and temperatures will lie close to or just below the seasonal norm, especially in some western areas where more rain or showers are expected.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 2 September

Summer concludes with a whimper

The Azores high will continue to lie to the southwest with little signs of a desire to extend itself across all parts. The west to south-westerly airstream looks set to continue, offering a further period of unsettled weather to conclude summer 2012.

There is moderate confidence in the overall trend of this period's weather but the expectation is that northern and western parts may see the bulk of the wet conditions on offer. The best of what sunshine and heat there is to be had should be found in the south and east.

Next week

Off to the Paralympics? Check your weather prospects here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 13 August Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

As the Olympics ends, the rain returns

Considering the summer weather we have had so far, the Olympics got away rather lightly. Not everywhere was quite so lucky though with heavy showers and even flooding reported in other parts of the UK. Now the celebrations have ended, the rain has returned and this time just about everywhere is in for a wet spell.

Monday 13 August—Sunday 19 August

The jet stream shifts southwards

For much of last week the notorious weather-maker, the jet stream, was tracking north of the UK with high pressure at the surface allowing warm and sunny weather to dominate for a few days. This week it slips south once more - returning to a position which has been more typical of this summer, bringing unsettled weather.

Windier and wetter conditions are on the cards this week with a particularly unsettled spell around midweek as a deep low brings strong winds and heavy rain. Notably, although temperatures by day will be fairly typical for the time of year, by night it will often feel rather warm and muggy.

By the weekend low pressure will be sitting to the west of the UK. This will feed around it some warm air from the continent which may lead to a brief warm spell in eastern areas to start the weekend. However any warmth will be short-lived as frontal systems spiral around the vortex, bringing spells of rain.

Monday 20 August—Sunday 26 August

The unsettled picture continues

Meteorologically as we move towards the end of August, summer will be heading to a close. Although the Azores high makes an attempt to extend towards the UK, it doesn't look likely to make much progress.

As such, this week continues the unsettled theme with showers and longer spells of rain on the cards for much of the UK. Fronts will approach from the southwest, marching across the country, bringing spells of wind and rain.

There may be some brief ridging appearing, allowing some short-lived drier spells. The southeast will probably be the region most likely to see these drier, and indeed warmer, interludes. Conversely this may have the effect of bringing some colder nights, most probably towards the end of the week.

Monday 27 August—Sunday 9 September

A changable start to September?

The Olympic weather - especially on some of the last few days - may have been podium-worthy, but hopes of seeing something similar for the Paralympics might be dashed.

At this stage it is very difficult to pick out a clear signal for the beginning of September. However we look more likely to experience the changeable weather we saw during the first part of August rather than a return to warm, dry and sunny conditions.

Next week

Is autumn knocking on the door or will we get another taste of summer?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 20 August Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Another typical Bank holiday on the way?

After the recent warm and very humid weather that affected much of the south of the UK, this week will see a return to temperatures closer to the average with a generally fresher feel for all.

On the whole, most places will see a mixture of sunshine and showers this week, with the chance that things will take a bit of a turn towards rather unsettled weather as we head into the Bank holiday weekend. It looks like the Paralympics may well see its fair share of weather too. Read on to find out more...

Sunday 19 August—Saturday 25 August

A northwest/southeast split

Sunday proved to be a tale of three stories. Warm and sultry weather affected the southeast, with a few isolated thunderstorms. For Wales and also western, central and northern parts of England there was plenty of rain with thunderstorms also in the Midlands. Scotland and Northern Ireland saw a mixture of sunshine and showers.

At the start of this week, we'll see a more showery and less humid regime spread from northwestern areas of the UK to the rest of the UK.

Indeed throughout Monday through to Thursday, showers will tend to be heavier and more frequent across northwestern areas, whereas southeastern parts of the UK will tend to fair a lot better, with just a scattering of mainly light showers and some prolonged spells of bright or even sunny weather. Temperatures will beinto the low to mid twenties, so it will fell quite pleasant for most of us at times outside any showers.

Heading into the Bank holiday weekend there are increasing signs that an Atlantic weather system may well bring some rather wet and windy weather to many parts of the UK, more especially the western fringes.

Sunday 26 August—Saturday 1 September

Summer draws to a close

Meteorologically speaking, the last week of August marks the end of summer. This year of course, the week also heralds the start of the Paralympics.

In a fashion that broadly represents of the majority of summer 2012, the final week of summer is expected to be a rather unsettled affair, with a good deal of showery weather affecting many parts of the UK, with more prolonged spells of rain anticipated. Temperatures are also expected to be a little below average.

Unfortunately it's looking unlikely that there will be any lengthy spells of medal winning weather for the Paralympics.

Sunday 2 September—Sunday 16 September

A changable start to September?

Changeable weather is likley to prevail through the start of September, though it won't be all doom and gloom with some decent spells of wether too.

Temperatures overall look more likely to be on the low side of the average for September, whilst total rainfall during the period is more likely to be above average than below. It also looks like being quite a dull start to September, with below average sunshine forecast.

Next week

Any sign of an Indian summer?.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 27 August Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

To Autumn

Meteorological summer is nearly at an end with the approach of September, and the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness will soon be upon us. So what can we expect the new month to bring us weather-wise? There are signs that high pressure may start to set in across southern parts of the country, whilst Atlantic depressions continue to steer across the north.

Monday 27 August—Sunday 2 September

Wet and windy at first, a drier end in the south

To start the week, Monday is looking pretty autumnal with a deep low turning our weather wet and windy from the west. The rain will be heavy and persistent and places, especially over western hills, and gales are likely around exposed coasts. Aside from a few morning showers, southeast England may remain dry until evening.

Showers will follow from the west for northern parts on Tuesday; these should be light in the main although accompanied by a bit of a breeze. In the south, under a transient ridge of high pressure, there will be fewer showers and lighter winds. There should be plenty of sunny periods to be had in all areas of the UK.

Wednesday sees the weather switch to back a cyclonic, showery picture with gusty winds driving in some showers, turning heavier and more persistent in the north.

Further showers follow on a chilly northerly breeze on Thursday, but with some sunshine in-between and gradually the showers will become confined to eastern parts as the day progresses. A chilly night follows as another transient ridge crosses the UK.

This ridge tries to hang on in the far south on Friday, bringing some warmer weather here, but further wet and windy weather will cross northern Britain.

This tale of two halves sets us up for the first full week of September, during which the north-south split is expected to continue, thanks to a predominantly westerly flow.

Monday 3 September—Sunday 9 September

Some dry and warm weather, mainly in the south

Further rain is likely at times in the north as we head into the first full week of September, otherwise a good deal of fine and dry weather is expected with some decent sunny spells developing.

As we head towards the end of the week a trend to more unsettled conditions across the whole UK is possible.

Temperatures will generally be close to the September average, which ranges between around 16 and 17 Celsius in the north to about 19 or 20 Celsius in the south, although with ridged conditions tending to favour southern and southeastern Britain, here it will occasionally turn warm.

However, some chilly nights are also likely, mainly in rural areas at first.

Monday 10 September—Sunday 23 September

A changeable type

There is no particularly strong signal for any one weather type to dominate through September, although it seems likely that lower pressure will tend to remain across the north with higher pressure to the south.

This would therefore keep the flow across the UK a predominantly westerly one, similar to September 2011 during which a changeable westerly type brought the warmest September since 2006.

A westerly flow tends to bring spells of rain or showers at times too, mainly to northern and western areas, but even here there should be some fine, dry interludes.

Similar to last year, temperatures this September are on balance more likely to be a little above average than below, and rainfall more likely to be a little below average than above.

Next week

Despite signs of similarities between this September and last, it's still far too early to know whether we'll see a repeat of the hot end to the month that we saw in 2011! But it's possible

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 3 September Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Autumn beckons

After enduring the wettest summer in a hundred years September begins with plenty of dry weather, particularly for the southern half of the United Kingdom, but gets more changeable as the month goes on.

Monday 3 September—Sunday 9 September

Some warm sunshine, especially in the south

To start the week, Monday will deliver some pleasant warmth to most parts of the United Kingdom with temperatures as high as 26C in east and southeast England.

It's not all plain sailing though because remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk, currently out in the Atlantic, will get absorbed into an area of low pressure that will bring rain to northern Scotland later on Monday with strengthening winds that will peak on Tuesday with gusts of 60mph or so for Shetland.

On Tuesday a trailing cold front from that area of low pressure will bring a weakening band of cloud and patchy rain southwards across England and Wales to give a cloudier, slightly cooler and for some damper day.

From Wednesday onwards high pressure re-establishes itself across England and Wales offering fine, warm days with sunny spells and misty nights.

At the same time, Atlantic weather fronts will threaten northern and western Scotland and the north of Northern Ireland with occasional rain and windier conditions at times too.

Monday 10 September—Sunday 16 September

Typical early autumn weather

With low pressure sitting to the north of the United Kingdom and high pressure to the south, there is a predominantly westerly flow across the country and that means typically changeable weather for early autumn.

We should expect some rain at times but also drier spells and with a westerly flow it may well be that eastern parts of Scotland and England receive relatively less rainfall than the west.

Temperatures look set to remain close to average in all areas both by day and night.

Monday 17 September—Sunday 30 September

Cooler and wetter

High pressure is likely to become positioned to the west of the United Kingdom for a time, allowing a colder northerly flow to develop. As a result the weather will probably be most unsettled towards the north and east with rain at times.

It will also turn cooler with temperatures dropping below average for many parts although south Wales and southern England may hang on to something close to what's typical for late September.

Next week

The start of October 2011 was a scorcher but surely it can't happen two years running

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 10 September Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Autumn is on its way

After a fine, summery start to September, autumn will resume its normal course, as it becomes much more unsettled and cooler for a time, with some very wet and windy weather, especially in the north. The weather may improve for us all late in the month, especially in the south, before more changeable conditions return as we move into October.

Monday 10 September—Sunday 16 September

Wind and rain for all parts

After a fine and warm, even hot, weekend for most parts of the UK, the weather this week will be much more mobile and considerably cooler and fresher, as deep areas of low pressure sweep eastwards to the north of the UK, bringing some very wet and very windy weather to most places.

The worst of the weather will be across the northern half of the UK, where gales or severe gales are possible. Conditions will be less wild in the south, but even here it will be windy with some rain at times. There will also be some brighter interludes for all of us as well, but these will be rather short-lived.

For the most part, temperatures will be around the seasonal average of 17C to 19C across England and Wales, 14C to 16C for Scotland and Northern Ireland, though occasionally warmer in the south.

Monday 17 September—Sunday 23 September

Rather unsettled, especially in the north and west

The mainly unsettled theme is likely to continue through this period. Northern and western parts of the UK are expected to see the wettest and windiest of the weather, with a risk of gales or severe gales at times in the far north.

On the whole, pressure looks like it will remain higher in the south, so the best of any drier and brighter conditions are likely here. Some rain is also expected here though, especially early in this period. However, there will be an increasing risk of mist and fog overnight, especially where winds fall light.

Temperatures will probably be around average for most, but at times will be above average in the south.

Monday 24 September—Sunday 7 October

More settled at first, but changeable later

September currently looks like it will end on a more settled note, with pressure building across much of the UK. This will bring some fine, quieter weather, with pleasant sunny days but chilly and possibly misty or foggy nights.

As we head into October though, it looks like the weather will become more changeable once again. Northern and western parts of the UK could see some spells of wind and rain, whereas southern and eastern parts stand the best chance of holding on to the drier, brighter conditions.

Temperatures on the whole are likely to be close to average, although southern and eastern parts are likely to see some above average temperatures during the settled spells, although this may be coupled with some rather chilly nights.

Next week

As we head towards the equinox, what will the rest of autumn bring us?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 17 September Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Autumn has definitely arrived

Autumnal weather has arrived and appears reluctant to change.

Monday 17 September—Sunday 23 September

A cooler feel to the week

There'll be a distinctly different feel to the weather this week as autumn decides to show its hand, particularly for the northern half of the UK.

Blustery showers will be the order of the day for many northern and western parts, while southern and eastern areas may see a little more in the way of sunshine.

The common feature for all though will be a cooler feel to the weather - particularly overnight. While daytime temperatures should be just about average, overnight temperatures could be just a little more chilly than normal.

By the middle of the week rural spots the length and breadth of the country could even dip towards low single figure temperatures on Wednesday morning.

Monday 24 September—Sunday 30 September

Blustery showers are never far away

The theme of slightly unsettled, typically autumnal weather looks set to continue through until the end of the month.

Blustery showers and cool, northwesterly breezes are likely to continue to affect the north while, again, the south will be a little more settled. As with the previous week, daytime temperatures should be around normal for the time of year but overnight lows will be, if anything, a little below average.

Monday 1 October—Sunday 14 October

More of the same?

And so it continues… Early indications are for little change from our autumnal pattern. Northern and western parts of the UK will be bright but with showers at times, while the south will be predominantly dry, though not completely immune from the odd shower.

Temperatures look to around about average for the time of year but still with the occasional chilly night just to remind us that we are leaving summer behind.

Next week

Any sign of a break in the pattern? The weather often has a habit of trying to surprise us so we'll certainly be keeping an eye out for changes.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 24 September Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Fairly typical for Autumn

Much of September has been relatively quiet across England and Wales with temperatures even reaching 29C in Cambridge on the 9th of the month. Scotland and Northern Ireland were more unsettled - in contrast to recent months - with low pressure systems moving through.

The last week of September will bring the month's quota of rainfall for some areas in a short space of time as well as gales force winds in places. This wet and windy weather comes courtesy of a deep area of low pressure which developed west of Iberia and brought tropical air with it. An injection of warmth and energy can often lead to difficult forecasting scenarios, and this depression has been no exception.

Thereafter the general signal is for a mobile westerly set-up to bring largely unsettled conditions although with pressure trying to build in the south, we see a better chance of some drier and brighter weather here.

Monday 24 September—Sunday 30 September

Settling down - for a time

The first part of this week will be extremely unsettled with gales for parts of the country as well as a good deal of heavy rain. The low bringing these poor conditions will eventually pull away towards the continent, allowing conditions to improve to an extent for the second half of the week with winds becoming lighter and showers becoming fewer and less heavy.

By Saturday some bright weather is likely although with showers affecting the northwest. Southern and eastern areas getting the best of the dry weather where it should also feel reasonably warm in any sunshine.

However low pressure looks set to reassert itself, bringing rain and strengthening winds piling in to the northwest and spreading across the country during Sunday.

Monday 1 October—Sunday 7 October

A northwest/southeast split?

This week looks likely to bring a transition to a westerly or southwesterly flow, although there is a hint in some of the models that the pressure will build for a time in the south. If this happens it could be a signal that a northwest/southeast split is on the cards.

This would mean the north and west would see the bulk of the unsettled conditions with wet and windy weather in store. The south and east would see more in the way of bright and dry conditions but also cold nights with mist or fog at times. Alternatively if the pressure fails to build, the whole country would experience a mobile set-up bringing spells of wind and rain.

Monday 8 October—Sunday 21 October

Business as usual?

By the middle of October we look likely to see the type of weather that might described as typically autumnal. Although there will be some drier, brighter spells these will probably be punctuated by showers and longer spells of rain.

Once again the north and west looks most likely to see the majority of the wind and rain with the southeast more favoured for something drier and brighter. Temperatures will probably be fairly typical for the time of year with some cold nights likely, with mist and fog at times as well as the chance of wintry showers in parts of Scotland.

Next week

Will pressure build in the south or will it be unsettled for all?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 1 October Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

October brings a tricky forecast

The first half of September was relatively quiet across England and Wales with temperatures even reaching 29C in Cambridge on the 9th of the month. Scotland and Northern Ireland were more unsettled - in contrast to recent months - with low pressure systems often taking charge.

The second half of the month was more unsettled and notably cooler. However there were a few days towards the end of September which are most likely to stick in our minds. We saw a deep area of low pressure - the most intense September storm in 30 years - which brought heavy rain and flooding to many parts of the country with Ravensworth in North Yorkshire recording 130mm over the course of three days.

October starts unsettled. However, the various forecasting models start to adopt a variety of solutions which makes the weather for much of the month more difficult than usual to predict.

Monday 1 October—Sunday 7 October

Two possible paths

The majority of the week looks set to be unsettled with blustery showers often on the cards. However by Friday the models are diverging between two possible paths.

The first scenario develops high pressure to the southwest of the country, bringing cooler, northwesterly winds and showery conditions at first. This high pressure continues to build into the weekend but with inherently cold air in place across the UK. This would lead to dry, bright and cool weather by day and cold, frosty nights.

The other, less likely, scenario features a deep area of low pressure running across the southern half of the country, bringing some heavy rainfall through Thursday night or Friday. Thereafter the signal is also for the pressure to build but centred further to the east, bringing southerly air from the continent, leading to a dry, settled, warmer spell.

Monday 8 October—Sunday 14 October

More uncertainty than usual

Whether the forecast follows scenario one or two, the start of the week looks likely to be mainly dry and bright across the country with high pressure still dominating. Whether it will be warm or cool with frost night remains to be seen, although cool looks far more likely at this stage.

Thereafter the models become increasingly divergent, making the outlook more uncertain than normal. However it does looks likely that the high pressure will lose it's grip and we will see the signal for rain increasing. Although confidence is low, the south and west of the country may see the wettest conditions.

Monday 15 October—Sunday 28 October

A reversal of climatology?

Predictability remains low as we head into the end of October and we may find ourselves experiencing some fairly mixed autumnal weather across the country. Much of the UK will see some dry and bright spells but these will be sprinkled with showers and longer spells of rain. Climatologically, we would expect the northwest to see the wettest conditions although there are some model signals that the south of the UK may pick up the highest rainfall totals with the northwest experiencing more dry weather than they typically would at this time of year. Chilly nights are likely at times and some wintry showers are probable across upland parts of Scotland.

Next week

Will the models fall into line? And what will the beginning of November bring?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 8 October Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A typically autumnal flavour

High pressure valiantly holds on across parts of the country at first, however low pressure looks increasingly likely to dominate as we head through October.

Monday 8 October—Sunday 14 October

High pressure gives way to low

The first half of the week features a battle between high pressure in the northeast and weather fronts to the southwest.

The high pressure will bring rather bright days but cold, frosty nights with fog forming and lingering in places through the mornings. The weather systems in the southwest will bring cloudier, wet conditions but prevent night time frosts.

Through the week the weather will tend to become more mobile as the weather systems sweep across the country. This will lead to an unsettled weekend although the detail is difficult to pinpoint at this stage. However it looks as though we will see rain - which may be heavy at times - mixed in with some drier spells and brisk winds which will make average temperatures feel chilly.

Monday 15 October—Sunday 21 October

Unsettled signal

Heading in to the second half of October the weather looks set to be a typically autumnal mix with the majority of our weather models signalling a cyclonic dominance. Some models hint at a ridge of high pressure building, however, this looks more unlikely at this stage.

So the most probable outlook is for showers and longer spells of rain with strong wind at times. Western upslopes would be likely to see the heaviest rainfall and the southeast would probably get away with drier conditions. If the ridging conditions do materialise, we could see a period of more settled weather with bright daytime conditions but frost and fog returning by night.

Monday 22 October—Saturday 3 November

Unsettled theme continues

Our typically autumnal pattern looks likely to continue as we head into the beginning of November. Although there will be some drier slots, the overall theme will probably feature a messy mix of showers, spells of rain and strong winds.

Although you would generally anticipate the temperatures dropping through this period, there are signals that, by the end of October, the figures will fall below what we might typically expect at this time of year. This would bring an increasing focus for frosty nights and wintry showers in northern upland areas.

Next week

Will November bring a change?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 15 October Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A few weeks dominated by low pressure and rain.

Mists and mellow fruitfulness go out the window this week as deep depressions swing across the UK bringing heavy rain and strong winds. With the ground already saturated in some areas, any more rain will bring the threat of flooding.

Monday 15 October—Sunday 21 October

Turning wetter, windier but less cold.

Sunday night looks like being the coldest of the week with a frost in many rural areas and patchy fog too. After very few showers on Monday, a band of rain will sweep across all but northern Scotland on Monday night. Heaviest rain is expected over Northern Ireland, northern England and southern Scotland. Gradually drying up on Tuesday and the strong winds will ease.

It is only a brief respite though. From Tuesday night a succession of depressions are forecast to swing up from the southwest. Winds will be strong to gale force and temperatures should be higher. Rain is the biggest concern, heavy at times, there may be flooding for areas such as southwest England and Wales again. In a highly developmental set up like this it is difficult to accurately predict the timing of the rain bands.

The weekend sees low pressure to the north feeding in showers; together with the strong winds it may feel cooler.

Monday 22 October—Sunday 28 October

High confidence for unsettled weather.

Low pressure systems tracking over the UK will maintain the unsettled theme. It's western areas that are likely to see the heaviest rain, with an attendant flood risk. On the whole there should be limited frost. There is a signal for higher pressure near the southeast which would mean drier and sunnier spells here.

Sunday 28 October—Saturday 10 November

Less certain but no prolonged dry weather.

Rather mixed as we go into a new month. Wet and windy spells will be punctuated by periods of drier and more settled conditions. The best of the drier and brighter weather is expected over southern and eastern areas. Some overnight frosts are likely.

Next week

Any fireworks in the forecast?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 22 October Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

An early taste of winter on the cards?

After a very unsettled spell of weather across the whole of the United Kingdom, this coming week looks like being somewhat more settled, although still with some rain and drizzle. Although mild at first, the end of the week looks like turning very much colder as an arctic blast of air plunges south to affect our shores. Chilly and unsettled weather looks like dominating as we head into November.

Monday 22 October—Sunday 28 October

A week of contrasts

This coming week starts off on a rather grey but mild note. Despite high pressure covering the UK, there will be some mainly light rain and drizzle across much of England and Wales, whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland will see some sunshine.

Some brighter conditions may develop across parts of England and Wales later in the week, whilst the northern half of the UK becomes cloudier with some rain. This rain will slip south across all parts by the end of the week, and behind it the weather will turn brighter but very much colder, with some wintry showers possible, especially towards the northern and eastern coasts of Scotland and England. Night time frosts will become a feature, especially in the north, despite a rather stiff north to northeasterly breeze.

Sunday 28 October—Saturday 3 November

Tricky weather for trick-or-treaters

High pressure will influence the weather for many parts of the UK at first, bringing plenty of fine but chilly weather. However, this will slip away to the southwest as we end October, with conditions turning much more unsettled for all parts of the UK. With the winds tending to be predominantly northwesterly, it will stay on the cool side.

Sunday 4 November—Saturday 17 November

Changeable weather, but still on the cool side

Although there are inevitable uncertainties for this period, there is a signal for temperatures to remain below the November average across much of the UK, although Scotland may see near normal temperatures. There will be some rain or showers, with some wintry showers possible for upland parts of Scotland. There will also be some dry, clear spells, which will lead to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

Next week

What will the weather hold for bonfire night?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 29 October Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled weather arrives

A spell of wet and windy weather is on the cards for us all at times during November.

Monday 29 October—Sunday 4 November

Trick or treat? Well neither, really.

For Halloween this year the weather doesn’t look to have many tricks in store. There are precious few treats either, with the last few days of October likely to peter out in an uninspiring, grey way.

November, however, has different ideas, announcing its arrival not so much with fireworks, but certainly with a bit of a blast. By the middle of the week areas of low pressure will bring wet and windy weather to the UK, with coastal gales at times for western parts.

On the plus side, the wind, rain and cloud associated with these areas of low pressure will help temperatures return to average for the time of year.

Monday 5 November—Sunday 11 November

Sparking off a change?

From the 5th of November the weather is scheming and plotting though not with the same imagination or ingenuity as Guy Fawkes.

This means that the unsettled theme continues through the week with cool, showery and at times, breezy conditions for many of us. There are signs that the south of the UK may just escape with slightly drier and more settled conditions, but generally speaking there’s little change in store.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 25 November

Very few signs of change

To take us towards the middle of November it looks like we’re sticking with the tried and tested weather that will have been with us through the first half of the month. Cool, showery and blustery weather is once again, the order of the day.

There are hints that the southeastern corner of the UK could fare slightly better than areas further north and west but is unlikely to completely escape the occasional wet and windy spell.

Next week

Any sign of change as we move towards winter? The weather normally has a curious way of throwing in a few surprises...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Turning milder, rather cloudy

It's been a chilly spell of weather with a lot of heavy showers with hail and thunder, even some snow over parts of southwest England too.

This week, however, we swap the cold Artic air for milder Atlantic air from Tuesday onwards. Allowing skies to become rather cloudy with patchy rain.

Monday 5 November—Sunday 11 November

Becoming less cold but also less sunshine

The week starts off on a mostly dry note with plenty of crisp autumn sunshine and staying cold. Showers will affect northern Scotland and coastal areas further south. A change to cloudier conditions will push southwards across the country on Tuesday. There will be some patchy light rain during the rest of the week, especially in the north and west. The most noticeable feature from Tuesday onwards will be that temperatures will return to near normal for early November. Overnight temperatures will be on the mild side with many places becoming frost-free. A heavier band of rain will then move eastwards during Friday, accompanied by strong southerly winds.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November

Changeable autumn weather continuing

The changable spell of weather will continue with low pressure to the northwest of the British Isles. This will bring spells of rain across the country with the most persistent and heaviest rain to be found over Western Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will also be windy at times with gales, especially in the Northwest.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 2 December

Still unsettled and turning a little colder

It does look like the changeable theme will continue for the rest of November and even into the start of December. There will be further showers or even some longer spells of rain crossing the country. Winds will be northwesterly at times which will turn showers wintry over hills in the north. Drier, clearer interludes between the showers will lead to a touch of frost at nights.

Next week

As we head into December, what will winter bring?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 12 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Staying mainly unsettled, but slowly cooling off.

The weather in recent days has been fairly typical for this time of the year, with low pressure mainly dominating the UK weather. With winds mostly coming in from the Atlantic, it has at least been reasonably mild. This pattern looks like continuing for the rest of this month, but there are hints that something drier and colder may affect the UK, in particular the south, as we head into December.

Monday 12 November—Sunday 18 November

Some rain for all, and mild for most.

After a cold and frosty start to the new working week, the weather will quickly go downhill from the west, as some wet and windy but mild weather spreads in to affect all parts during Monday.

For the rest of the week, we end up with a three-way split across the UK.

A slow-moving band of locally heavy rain will lie across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. There could be some localised flooding issues in southwestern Scotland, with as much as 50 to 70mm of rain falling over the high ground here. To the north of this rain, it will be cool with sunny spells and a few showers, the odd one perhaps heavy with a risk of hail and thunder. Showers will probably be wintry over the highest ground too. To the south, it will be mostly dry if rather cloudy, but very much on the mild side. It will also be rather windy everywhere, especially in the northwest where there will be a risk of gales.

Winds will tend to ease later in the week for all of us, and this could allow some fog to form overnight under any cloud breaks, which will be slow to clear during the day.

Monday 19 November—Sunday 25 November

Staying unsettled, but becoming a little cooler.

It looks like low pressure will generally dominate the weather over the United Kingdom, with showers or longer spells of rain for all of us. It will often be windy too. There will of course be some drier, brighter interludes, but the emphasis is on unsettled conditions.

Temperatures look like slipping back a couple of degrees to around or a little below normal for the time of year, so we could be seeing daytime highs down into single figures. Overnight frost and icy patches are possible in northwestern parts and hill snow is also possible in the north. It may turn a little milder by the end of this period though, more particularly in the south.

Monday 26 November—Sunday 9 December

Drier and colder conditions to start December?

November looks like ending on a rather unsettled note, with temperatures remaining around or perhaps a little below average.

However, a new month may bring about a change in the weather pattern.

Although there is inevitably a lot of uncertainty, the start of December may see drier and colder conditions affecting the United Kingdom, with pressure possibly building out to the east. If this happens, things may turn drier and brighter, but considerably cooler than of late for many of us, particularly in the south.

Next week

The unsettled theme looks like continuing for a while yet, but a new month may bring about a marked change to our weather. Could winter be on its way?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 19 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Watching and waiting for winter

With the start of climatological winter fast approaching, speculation is once again mounting about what it will hold weather-wise for the UK.

It is far too soon to know what the entire season will bring, but December is now less than a fortnight away so it is possible to take a tentative look at how this winter will begin.

The signs are still hinting at the possibility of a colder-than-average start to the season, but will it be from a northerly or easterly type?

Monday 19 November—Sunday 25 November

Generally mild although unsettled and rather windy

Last week had a bit of everything; rain, wind, mild, foggy, cold and frosty, even snow over the Scottish mountains. This coming week looks to bring us somewhat less of the cold, and instead more of the mild and windy.

The week has started on a chilly note in central and eastern parts, but wet and windy weather has already set in to the north and west. This will make its way to all parts of the country through the rest of the day, albeit turning light and patchy by the time it reaches the southeast.

The middle part of the week then remains unsettled and often very windy, with showers or further spells of rain. This rain will be heavy at times, especially in the west where fronts may tend to become slow-moving as pressure starts to build to the east of the UK. It will also be relatively mild through midweek, with frosts limited. The various forecast models are in disagreement over the evolution of front-bearing weather systems however, leading to considerable uncertainly in the exact location of the heaviest rain.

As the working week draws to a close, high pressure looks as though it will try to build from the southwest. This may bring colder air in to replace the mild theme and allowing the risk of night-time frosts to return for the weekend. There are some models suggesting however that the unsettled theme will continue into the start of next week.

Monday 26 November—Sunday 2 December

December beckons, settled weather coming?

Picking up with the unsettled theme at the start of the week, it begins with showers or longer spells of rain possible for the UK, with temperatures returning close to or a touch above average.

As the week progresses, there is a trend towards some parts of the country turning a little more settled, with temperatures falling to allow an increased risk of frost and icy patches. Any further rain or showers could then turn wintry over higher ground at times.

Monday 3 December—Sunday 16 December

Winter's here, and on balance it does looks cold

Even at this long timescale there is greater than average uncertainty for the first full fortnight of December. However, the balance of probability does point to this period being colder than average, which would lead to an increased risk of frost and fog.

However there still could be some rain at times, although this presently looks most like to occur over northwestern parts of the UK. This could, coupled with the colder-than-normal theme, lead to a risk of snow, mainly but not exclusively over high ground.

Next week

Christmas is looming, will it stay on the cold side or will it turn milder for the last-minute shoppers?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

Monday 26 November Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Rain at first, then turning drier... and colder

This issue begins with the good news that the coming week will see a drying trend in many of the areas hit hard recently by flooding. Instead of persistent rain, a change in weather type will bring showers, especially to windward coasts in the east of the country. However the change will also bring colder air across the country, helping to turn some of those showers wintry over hills. This is the change to a cold type we have been talking about for several weeks now, but as always there are some uncertainties about what the change will bring in terms of precipitation distribution and type. There is enough certainty now to high confidence in the cold start to December and climatological winter.

Monday 26 November—Sunday 2 December

Generally mild although unsettled and rather windy

The showers moving eastwards across southern counties on Monday will be of rain but heavy at times with a risk of thunder. There is a threat of some more persistent rain across southwest England for a time too, not as much as during the weekend but falling onto saturated, if not already flooded, ground. Of greater concern is the persistent and at times heavy rain across northern England and north Wales. This has the potential to bring localised flooding to these parts and the Met Office has weather warnings in force.

This rain gradually clears through Monday night and at first on Tuesday to leave a windy day with showers. From this point forward the temperatures will be on a downward trend through the rest of the week as the winds turn more northerly, with increasingly widespread frost, some icy patches, and showers wintry over hills. The showers though will become largely confined to the east, mainly along windward coasts.

This means the best of the weather will be in the west, with plenty of dry and at times sunny weather, although even here a few showers could skip by the coasts in the far west. However the more settled picture will be welcomed in areas drying out after the recent flooding.

As December arrives, further wintry showers are expected but perhaps falling to increasingly lower levels, with accumulations over high ground possible in the north and east of the country.

As a front tries to come in to the west of the UK, there is also a risk of some more persistent rain, especially towards the southwest. As the rain meets the cold air, this could turn sleety with the possibility of some hill snow. However this does rely on the front making progress inland from the west, and currently the signal is for the frontal rain to stay offshore to the west.

Monday 3 December—Sunday 9 December

December beckons, settled weather coming?

Picking up with the unsettled theme at the start of the week, it begins with showers or longer spells of rain possible for the UK, with temperatures returning close to or a touch above average.

As the week progresses, there is a trend towards some parts of the country turning a little more settled, with temperatures falling to allow an increased risk of frost and icy patches. Any further rain or showers could then turn wintry over higher ground at times.

Monday 10 December—Sunday 16 December

Winter's here, and on balance it does looks cold

Even at this long timescale there is greater than average uncertainty for the first full fortnight of December. However, the balance of probability does point to this period being colder than average, which would lead to an increased risk of frost and fog. However there still could be some rain at times, although this presently looks most like to occur over northwestern parts of the UK. This could, coupled with the colder-than-normal theme, lead to a risk of snow, mainly but not exclusively over high ground.

Next week

Christmas is looming, will it stay on the cold side or will it turn milder for the last-minute shoppers?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 3 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

December gets off to a cold start. Will it last?

After the recent flooding that occurred across large parts of the UK, thankfully, drier conditions returned towards the middle of last week.

Even though parts of southwest England, the Midlands and northeast England saw almost twice as much rain as would usually be in expected in November, on the whole, for most other parts of the UK, the weather wasn't particularly out of the ordinary for the time of year.

So what does December hold in store for us? We are in for a cold start to the month with some spells of sleet and snow at times. Will that trend continue as we approach the festive season?

Read on to find out more.

Monday 3 December—Sunday 9 December

A bitingly cold start to the month

It will be a pretty cold, grey and dank start to the working week for many central, northern and eastern areas of the UK, as a weather front that brought snow to parts of Scotland and northern England slowly clears east into the North Sea. As Monday wears on, though, it will brighten for most, with some showers pushing in across western parts. A cold night will follow into Tuesday with a widespread frost and some icy patches.

A theme of sunshine and showers is anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday, with blustery winds for the southwest at times. The showers could turn to snow again, particularly on Wednesday. It will be fairly cold again by day and night. Wednesday night is likely to be the coldest night of the week, with a hard frost for all as winds become light.

Thursday should provide an sunny interlude for most, but another weather system will cross the UK through the latter part of Thursday and into Friday, potentially bringing further snow for some higher ground in the north.

Going into the weekend, it looks as if there will be a very cold and frosty start just about everywhere, but with plenty of sunshine around. Through the course of Saturday, another weather system is expected to move in from the northwest, bringing some wet and windy weather for most, and potentially bringing some spells of snowfall for higher ground across Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. Through Sunday the system should gradually clear away into the North Sea.

Monday 10 December—Sunday 16 December

Cold again, but perhaps with a milder interlude

Starting off next week, it looks as if the unsettled weather that crossed northern areas on previous days will clear away to the east, leaving a drier but colder picture. It's likely that high pressure will build close to the UK for a time, resulting in a cold east to northeasterly wind, with some wintry showers for eastern areas, but with central and western parts staying largely dry and experiencing some bright or even sunny days. There will be an increased risk of frosty nights with patchy freezing fog too. As we head into the weekend, there are suggestions that the high pressure will tend to drift away into Central Europe, allowing some milder and wetter weather to encroach on the UK from the southwest.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Staying cold, but mainly dry

As we head into the second half of December, there is a fairly high degree of confidence that the UK will mainly be in a colder than average spell, with plenty of frosty nights accompanied by freezing fog patches, and chilly days to follow with temperatures struggling to get much above freezing. However, with regard to rainfall, even for a longer-term forecast the level of uncertainty is rather high. On balance, at this stage, it looks as if things will stay mainly dry as we move towards the end of the year. As it is expected to be on the cold side, any precipitation that does fall is likely to be snow.

Next week

Will it stay cold for the Christmas celebrations?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 10 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

Another cold snap, but turning milder again

The start of December also heralded the start of the meteorological winter and in addition the first snowfall of the winter for many parts of the UK.

A bitterly cold week for most saw bands of rain that readily turned to snow cross the UK at various points through the week.

The outlook for next week maintains the bitterly cold theme, but how long will this last, and will it bring any further snowfall? Read on to find out more of the details.

Monday 10 December—Sunday 16 December

Mainly cold and settled, but with a late twist

After the brief spell of slightly milder weather that affected most parts of the UK on Sunday, Monday will bring a swift return to much colder, drier and brighter conditions that will last well into the week.

There will be a sharp frost for most places as the working week gets under way, and the frost will take a while to lift, with temperatures staying rather low. Most places will stay dry with plenty of sunshine accompanied by light winds, but northeastern coasts will be under threat of a few wintry showers that will turn to snow at times.

Through Tuesday and Wednesday there will be little change in conditions, with high pressure continuing to dictate the weather theme. Frosty mornings will be followed by bright and dry but cold days. There could also be a few patches of freezing fog that form during the overnight periods which could well persist well into the daytime for some areas, though most likely in the west. Wintry showers will continue to affect eastern counties of England and Scotland, with the risk of some localised snowfall, particularly over higher ground.

By Thursday the situation will be largely unchanged across most parts of the UK, but Northern Ireland and parts of southwest England are likely to see the start of some milder weather pushing in from the southwest, possibly preceded by a little rain or sleet.

Friday looks set to bring a big change in through the weekend, with weather fronts crossing the UK from the southwest to bring wet, windy and milder conditions to all areas. As the transition takes place though, there could be a transitory period of snow, most likely for the higher ground of Scotland and northern England.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Much milder for the middle of the month

Following on from the previous weekend's transition to wetter, windier and milder weather, we are likely to see the general theme of brisk and milder westerly winds maintained through most of the week. Weather systems are expected to sweep in from the Atlantic and cross the UK on a fairly frequent basis, but in between these events showery interludes with brighter spells can be anticipated. In terms of temperature, we should see daytime maxima return to around about average, although there are fairly strong indications that the south will see some milder than average weather at times.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 8 December

Will cold weather return as we start the New Year?

Even for a medium range weather outlook, uncertainties in the forecast do present significant barriers in giving a clear indication of what we can expect through the festive period and into the New Year. There is a reasonable degree of confidence in suggestions that temperatures will drop a little below the December average for a time, before picking up again as we head into the New Year.

The biggest uncertainties are in regard of the actual weather type that can be expected to affect the UK through this period. Current forecasts suggest that rainfall and snowfall amounts will be around average for this time of year, but the manner in which this precipitation will fall is very difficult to determine at this stage.

Next week

As this year draws to a close, will we see just one last really cold spell?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Monday 17 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A breezy and showery lead up to Christmas

The second week of December saw a transition from bitterly cold to rather mild and unsettled.

As we move ever nearer to the festive break, it looks most likely the unsettled theme will dominate the forecast. Read on for more details.

Monday 17 December—Sunday 23 December

Rain at times with a brisk breeze.

After a showery start to the week with a touch of frost and a risk of a little ice in the north, the middle to the week will see things turning wet and windy from the west once again.

On Tuesday, many places will have fine and dry weather after early fog patches clear away. Daytime temperatures will be around average but overnight, a widespread frost will form.

By Wednesday, rain will accompany a freshening southerly wind as a weather front spreads in from the Atlantic and gradually pushes eastwards across all parts. There is a chance of a little snow on the hills in the north, before the precipitation turns back to rain. Winds will be strong all day, with a risk of gales.

Through Thursday and Friday, things remain generally unsettled, with further showers or longer spells of rain. Breezy conditions are set to continue, especially in the north at first. Temperatures will be generally near-normal.

The week is likely to end will a mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

A 'wet' rather than 'white' Christmas most likely

There is a reasonable degree of agreement from various computer models that the unsettled theme will continue through the festive period. Rain, heavy at times, will be blown in by strong winds with a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to be on the mild side, especially overnight, but perhaps turning a bit colder between Christmas and New Year.

This forecast is however still subject to change, and there is the possibility of some rather colder and more wintry weather at times.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 13 January

An unsettled start to 2013

The changeable weather is likely to persist into the start of January, with low pressure often dominating the forecast. Rainfall amounts are likely to be typical across the north of the UK, whilst the south may be rather wet for the time of year. Temperatures will probably be near-normal, perhaps on the cold side at times in the north. Uncertainty then increases significantly into the final week of the period, with no clear weather type favoured, perhaps indicating a shift to less unsettled conditions.

Next week

As 2013 gets underway, will we see a return to the wintry chill?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Summer Sun]

No change to wet and windy weather as 2013 begins

As we head through Christmas the generally unsettled theme will continue to affect all parts of the UK. There is very little sign of any change in the story either as 2013 begins, with the most likely weather scenario involving a persistent pattern of weather systems encroaching on the UK from the Atlantic. Read on to find out more.

Monday 24 December—Sunday 30 December

Further spells of rain and windy at times

After the deluge of heavy rain and stormy winds that affected many parts of the UK through the course of the weekend, Christmas week gets under way with yet another spell of wet weather for everyone, although winds will be significantly lighter, and parts of Northern Ireland could see some afternoon sunshine.

Christmas Day itself will see temperatures reach about the average for this time of year, with bands of showers feeding in from the west, and they are likely to be particularly prevalent across Wales and southwest England. One or two of the showers might just turn a little wintry over the higher ground of Scotland, Northern England and Northern Ireland later on Christmas Day, but a white Christmas doesn't look likely this year for most places.

As we head into Boxing Day and Thursday, the wet and windy weather is set to continue with further bands of showers for most, and the possibility of a little hill snow for some areas of Northern Scotland. Through Friday yet more rain and some southwesterly gales will sweep across the UK, with the strong likelihood of further spells of wet and windy, but essenrtially mild weather into the last weekend of 2012.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 6 January

No end in sight!

The story just doesn't change as we start the new year, with more bands of rain and swathes of strong winds looking set to sweep in from the Atlantic. At this stage it looks as if southwestern parts of the UK will again bear the brunt of the rainfall, with northeastern parts looking most likely to receive some wintry showers from time to time. Temperatures are expected to be about average for the time of year, or perhaps even a touch below for central and northern parts. To the south, though, there are some fairly strong indications that the weather could be a little milder as January gets under way.

Saturday 7 December—Sunday 20 January

Will we finally see some change?

For the second week of January it looks as if yet more Atlantic low pressure systems will be heading towards the UK with bands of blustery showers or more prolonged spells of rain on the way. Temperatures also look to be around average, if not just a touch above. There is still quite a lot of uncertainty in the forecast as we look further ahead into the second half of January, but there is just a sign that there could be some colder and more settled weather on the cards.

Next week

Can we expect some colder weather for the end of January?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

[Stuart]

Monday 31 December Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A wet and windy end to a rainy year

We can now confirm that 2012 will go down as the wettest year on record across England. It will be a few days yet until we can say just how wet 2012 has been for the UK in its entirety, but 2012 will certainly go down as one of the wettest years on record, if not actually the wettest.

Suitably then, the last day of 2012 looks set to be a wet and windy affair across all parts of the UK before we finally see a spell of drier weather. How long will this slightly drier interlude last? Read on to find out more.

Monday 31 December—Sunday 6 January

Finally some spells of drier weather

As 2012 draws to a close, there will be a strong southwesterly wind bringing gales or even severe gales to many parts of the UK and yet more rain sweeping across most areas. However, as many of us head out to see in the New Year the winds will ease, and it looks like being a largely dry but cold affair for the celebrations, though there could be just a few wintry showers for northwestern parts, and perhaps just a little residual rain for the southeast of Enland.

The New Year will get off to largely bright and breezy start, with a few showers across western areas, but many places will stay dry.

As the week draws on, pressure will start to build in the south, with plenty of dry and reasonably bright weather by day and with temperatures hovering around average. Further north there will always be an increased chance of some spells of rain from time to time, but even here any rainfall is expected to be far less intense than of late.

It's worth noting that we are likely to see some patchy frost on most nights through the week, particularly across central and northern parts, with Tuesday and Wednesday nights looking the coldest.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 13 January

Mainly dry as high pressure clings on

High pressure is expected to dominate weather patterns across central and southern areas of the UK, at least for the start of the period. It does look as if skies will stay rather cloudy through the second week of January, with the cloud possibly being thick enough for a few occasional spots of rain and drizzle in the west, and maybe some more prolonged spells of rain for northern and western Scotland at times.

The best of any brighter weather looks set to be across eastern areas to the lee of high ground. In the main, temperatures are expected to be about average, or maybe even just a touch above. Night time periods look like staying frost-free. Towards the end of the week, there are indications that a weak weather front might traverse southeastwards across the UK, perhaps introducing a little rain, bringing slightly lower temperatures in its wake.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 27 January

Turning colder towards the end of the month?

Even for a long range forecast, the degree of uncertainty in the weather forecast for the second half of January is relatively high. That said, present indications do suggest that southern and eastern areas of the UK will stay relatively dry and mild, with the more wet and windy conditions largely confined to northwestern areas. There are also some indications that we could see a return to much colder weather as January draws to a close.

Next week

Will we see a spell of cold weather early in February?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

[Stuart]

Sunday 6 January Published at 10:00

Monthly Outlook

Summary

A cold January?

After a week of particularly mild conditions, this week may begin a transition to some colder weather. The rest of January looks as though it may continue to bring colder than average temperatures with an increased risk of some snowfall.

Monday 7 January—Sunday 13 January

Turning chilly

This week starts with high pressure to the south of the country, allowing southwesterly winds to bring mild, moist air from the Atlantic. By Tuesday a cold front brings brighter but cold conditions with frost by night. The end of the working week looks likely to bring unwelcome rainfall to the southwest at times.

By the weekend the forecast become trickier. Some computer models want to build high pressure to the north of the UK which would lead to northeasterly winds bringing much colder air feeding across the country. This would mean the likelihood of some wintry showers. Alternatively some models suggest that the winds will come from the southwest, bringing Atlantic weather systems and a return to milder conditions.

At the moment the first scenario is perhaps the most likely but the development of these scenarios will be closely monitored throughout this week.

Monday 14 January—Sunday 20 January

Rather cold perhaps?

As we head into the second half of January, the uncertainty in the forecast is greater than normal. At the moment it looks most likely that high pressure to the north of the country will dominate, with easterly winds continuing to feed cold air across the UK.

This set up would probably bring bright but colder than average conditions with overnight frosts. Further wintry showers would also develop, especailly in the north and east. Milder, wetter conditions might affect the south and west at times.

Monday 21 January—Sunday 3 February

Staying cold?

The uncertainties in the forecast continue through to the end of January although the colder trend still looks the most probable scenario. This could continue to bring temperatures lower than would typically be expected at this time of year, with a higher than average chance of some wintry weather.

Next week

Will the cold weather materalise and for how long will it stick around?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook