BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Summer Sun]

Summary

 

Has summer arrived?

 

The 1st of June heralded the start of the summer, at least from a meteorological point of view. And so far summer seems to have read the script, deciding to play along; warmth and sunshine from the off.

It looks like we may make it through the first week in a similar vein too. However, when the curtain falls on June, will we be calling for an encore?

 

Monday 3 June—Sunday 9 June Well it's a good start...

 

We start the month with good news; high pressure looks set to be in charge of our weather through the first part of June, bringing warm, dry and bright conditions for most.

This area of high pressure may not bring us wall to wall sunshine but it is coming hot on the heels of the coldest spring in over 50 years. It will at least be a relief to welcome back some warmer conditions. Indeed, by the end of the first working week of the month we could even see temperatures into the low twenties across parts of the UK.

It's not a tale of sunshine for all of us though, with northeastern coasts likely to see a little more in the way of cloud and cooler conditions at times.

However, with some sunshine and light winds, it will still be a welcome change to recent months.

 

Monday 10 June—Sunday 16 June ...and back to normal.

 

So is this the start of long spell of sunny weather? Perhaps not. All the signs point to the high pressure being pushed out of the way by a low pressure system. The only detail up for debate is whether this push comes from the south or the southwest. Either way, this break down would signal a return to cooler and breezier conditions with perhaps some wet and windy weather in the northwest of the UK later in the week.

 

Monday 17 June—Sunday 30 June Is the dream over?

 

As we move into the second half of June things start to look even more uncertain. There isn't a particularly strong signal for any one pattern of weather to dominate though if anything, unsettled conditions look most likely to continue. By any other name we may call this a traditional summer! In terms of temperatures, again, no stand-out signal but we're most likely to be at or just below the average for the time of year. So here's hoping that the warm start to the month wasn't just a blip and that summer doesn't take its lead from Spring.

 

Next week

 

Will July be the kind of summer we dream of, or more like the kind of summer that we have come to expect? Come back next week to see get a first look.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited June 3, 2013 by Summer Sun

[NeilN]

Am I the only one who takes this with a pinch of salt?

[Stuart]

Monday 10 June Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A warm start to june, but how long will it last?

 

We can now officially confirm that the spring of 2013 was indeed the coldest spring season since 1962. Temperatures were well below average across all parts of the UK, but particularly across England and Wales.

Thankfully, the first week of June, which also marks the transition to the meteorological summer, brought some fine, dry and warm weather for all areas at times. Indeed one or two locations in the west of Northern Ireland, western Scotland and southern England saw temperatures peak into the mid-twenties through the week, giving the highest temperatures recorded so far in

 

2013. Some eastern counties did end the week on a rather dull and chilly note though.

 

So, all in all, most places saw a decent start to the summer in June. Of course though, the big question is; how long will the warm and dry weather last?. Read on to find out more....

Monday 10 June—Sunday 16 June Turning Unsettled, Rain at Times

You would certainly be forgiven for allowing this week's headline to dent any optimistic hopes you might hold for any prolonged summer-like weather. Indeed, this coming week will herald some big changes in the weather, particularly for northern and western parts. But all is not lost for the south, which could well have some reasonable weather heading towards next weekend.

 

Monday will get off to a familiarly cloudy start. The cloud will slowly retreat back towards the coasts though, giving some dry and bright conditions for all areas with temperatures heading into the high teens and low twenties. Even eastern coastal counties should see some brighter and warmer weather than of late.

As we progress through Monday evening and overnight into Tuesday, weather fronts that have been lingering out in the Atlantic for some time, will slowly encroach into western areas, bringing outbreaks of mainly light rain, and some fresher southwesterly winds.

 

Tuesday will see a reversal in the weather fortunes of the both the eastern and western parts of the UK. Western areas will be cloudy and damp, with fresh southwesterly winds, whereas eastern areas are likley to hang on to one more day of warm and sunny weather.

By the middle of the week, the transition to a brisk southwesterly wind with spells of rain will be complete across all areas, with some particularly wet weather anticipated for the northwest, and possibly a brief spell of heavy rain for the far southeast on Thursday.

By Friday though, there are increasing signs that high pressure will build across the southern half of the UK, which may well allow for some fine, dry and warm weather for the south, with wet and windy conditions becoming confined to the northwest. Indeed, this set up looks likely to last into the weekend.

 

Monday 17 June—Sunday 23 June A northwest/southeast divide?

It looks like the wet and windy weather affecting northwestern areas of the UK through the previous weekend will rapidly sink south and east, putting an abrupt in end to the drier and warmer weather in the south of the UK.

As the week unfolds though, we are likely to see a return to a southeast/northwest divide, with bands of heavier showers and rain pushed in by stronger winds and a prevailing cooler feel for northwestern parts of the UK, whereas southern and eastern areas should stay drier and brighter with a temperatures peaking just above the average for June. That's not to say that the south will completely avoid any showery activity though, with some spells of wet weather anticipated at times.

 

Monday 24 June—Sunday 7 July Any sign of summer weather in July?

At the moment there isn't much of a sign of any return to warmer and prolonged spells of settled weather, even as we head towards the end of June and into early July. Early indications suggest that winds will continue to prevail from the west, sweeping Atlantic weather systems across the UK to bring spells of wet and windy weather from time to time. That said, there should be some drier interludes between such events, with the best of any drier weather looking most probable across southeastern areas again. Temperatures look like they will be around average for the time of year across southeastern parts, but perhaps a little on the cooler towards the west and north, where showery activity will likely be more prevalent.

Next week

 

Can we look forward to any drier and warmer weather in July?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

 

Edited June 10, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Where has summer gone?

 

After a promising start to the meteorological summer, the weather has decided to turn much more changeable. The first week of June brought dry and warm weather to many parts of the UK. However, the second week has seen a quite a change with spells of wet and windy weather crossing the country. The heaviest rain was over Northern Ireland with Ballypatrick in County Antrim recording 55mm in the 24 hours up to 6pm on Saturday.

There is better news for the coming week, but as always there will be some exceptions.

 

Monday 17 June—Sunday 23 June Dry, bright, warm weather for some but not all...

Looking at the week as a whole, there will be a lot of dry weather with some sunshine. That's certainly the case on Monday although scattered showers will develop across Scotland. Patchy light rain will affect parts of southwest England with heavier showers in the afternoon. Also a few sharp showers will break out along the south coast.

Tuesday will again be dry in many places with sunny spells. Light showers will affect western Scotland and a few heavy showers will break out over southern England. It will feel much warmer in the south on Tuesday with a muggy feel to the day.

 

On Wednesday and Thursday, southern England will be at risk from heavy and possibly thundery showers. Given some sunshine though, temperatures could shoot up into the mid-20s Celsius. Further north, it will stay mainly dry with sunny spells but showers will affect western Scotland on Wednesday. Temperatures generally on the warm side but turning cooler over western Scotland thanks to a freshening southwesterly wind.

The mainly dry, settled theme will continue across much of the country on Friday with sunshine and just a few light showers. Then we see a change as we head into the weekend, rain spreading from the west to most parts along with strengthening southwesterly winds.

 

Monday 24 June—Sunday 30 June Will the weather play ball...?

 

The Wimbledon fortnight is notorious for its weather interruptions over the years. So how is the weather looking for Wimbledon and all the other events like the Glastonbury festival and the British Grand Prix taking place on the last week of June?

Well, the changeable weather will continue across the UK. There will be spells of wet and windy weather across Scotland and Northern Ireland. Elsewhere there will be drier, brighter conditions but bands of light rain will cross all parts from time to time.

Monday 1 July—Sunday 14 July Could do better...

 

As usual, the weather at this time of year is never quite as good as we would like it to be. This is very much the case for the early part of July.

At this stage it looks like rather changeable weather for the first half of the month. Bands of rain will push in from the Atlantic with drier and brighter interludes in between. Rain will be heavy at times over western Scotland and Northern Ireland but the rain generally lighter and patchy as it makes its way southeastwards. So the south and east of England and also Wales will enjoy more in the way of drier and brighter weather. Here temperatures will be close to normal for early July, but on the cool side for northwestern parts of the UK where it will be breezy at times.

Next week

 

Any signs of prolonged settled and even warmer weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited June 17, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook

 

Summary

 

New balls please or running for the covers?

 

Last week saw the warmest day of the year so far. 26.4 Celsius was recorded at Herstmonceux in Sussex. Since then a cooler and wetter airstream has followed. Festival season and major sporting events abound over the weeks ahead. The Wimbledon fortnight is notorious for its weather interruptions over the years. The British Grand Prix has seen wet tracks and muddy car parks! And the Ashes series is just around the corner, but will the Aussies feel more at home in our weather?

 

Monday 24 June—Sunday 30 June Better than the weekend!

 

The low pressure area that brought rain and strong winds over the weekend is heading to Scandinavia. As pressure rises the week ahead looks more settled but not without some nuisance rain. Monday sees lighter winds and fewer and more feeble showers. Many places will be dry but sunshine will be limited. Tuesday could start cold, below 5 Celsius in rural areas. A weak weather front will bring a band of Atlantic showers across northern areas but it should stay dry again at Wimbledon. Southeast England and East Anglia may be the only places to catch a shower on Wednesday. Although temperatures should be near normal by midweek, Thursday and Friday could be rather cloudy with enough depth of cloud for a little light rain or drizzle. The weekend could see a little more rain in the north but drier in the south. So Glastonbury may get away with fine weather and there should be little disruption at Wimbledon or Silverstone.

 

Monday 1 July—Sunday 7 July Azores high tantalizingly close.

 

Something strange is happening. The Azores High is expected to continue to influence our weather in the second week. This produces a more 'normal' Summer pattern, but one that has been lacking over the last few years. Basically as the high extends across the south of the UK it should be mainly dry here with a little sunshine. However for northern areas there will be more mobility as Atlantic lows run round the top of the Azores High to give spells of rain. As we have predominately westerly winds don't expect a heatwave. So, broadly we are developing a north-south split.

 

Monday 8 July—Sunday 21 July Is it going to warm up?

 

The more settled weather in the south may extend further north but this is not guaranteed. All areas will have some rain at times but again southern areas will have very little. It will feel warm in the sunshine but temperatures still no better than slightly above average.

 

Next week

 

The Azores High has a central pressure of 1038mb. Will it get any closer? Or will we be disappointed or delighted with average weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited June 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Terminal Moraine]

The monthly outlook beyond July 1st is a complete contradiction of the latest 'Further outlook' forecast; one of them must be wrong.

[Stuart]

Monday 1 July Published at 10:00

 

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

Dust off the dictionary. There's a word that could describe this month's weather and you might not have used it in a while.

 

I'll give you a clue. It begins with an 'S' and rhymes with drummer...

So will it be good news with the Ashes just around the corner and the Open Championship towards the end of the month?

 

Monday 1 July—Sunday 7 July Things are looking up

 

This coming week looks like a reasonable start, a bit of a slide mid-week and then positive signs for the end.

The week starts with a fresh feel and a few showers affecting areas from the Midlands northwards.

During the middle of the week a couple of weather fronts will work their way across the UK bringing brief spells of wet weather to all at various points through Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. As the rain comes through it will turn windy for a time across Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland too.

However, by the tail end of the working week things are looking altogether more positive with an area of high pressure building from the south, perhaps to be with us for a while.

 

Monday 8 July—Sunday 14 July Still high pressure?

 

There are signs that this area of high pressure will continue to dominate our weather for the rest of the week.

The biggest question for the week is whether the high will be strong enough to repel all attempts by weather systems coming in from the west.

At the moment it looks as though the answer is 'not quite'. This would mean that the northwest of Scotland and western parts of Northern Ireland may be dealt a glancing blow by any bands of cloud and rain coming across the Atlantic. So here it may be a little cloudier, wetter and breezier at times than elsewhere.

For the rest of the UK though it would appear that summer has decided to put in an appearance. Temperatures should steadily build through the week, with the sun strong enough to burn off any early morning mist and murk leaving warm and bright days for most.

If it stays this way then it'll be looking good for the start of the Ashes with the first test at Trent Bridge on the 10th of July.

 

Monday 15 July—Sunday 28 July Possibly more good news to come?

 

And it seems like summer isn't done with us yet.

Indications are that the high pressure will be sticking around for a while yet. Obviously this far in the future things can change, but at the moment it looks like higher than average temperatures, higher than average sunshine amounts and lower than average rainfall across the country.

There are those who would call that summer!

 

This will be of particular interest to fans of golf with Muirfield playing host to the 142nd Open Championship from the 18th of July.

Next week

 

Will the promising signs of summer continue? Come back next week for the latest thoughts on the great British summer.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited July 1, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Summer finally arrives, but how long will it last?

 

This weekend saw the warmest day of the year so far for many parts of the UK. An area of high pressure brought sunny skies and light winds to England and Wales, with temperatures widely in the high twenties across parts of England and Wales. Although the skies were a little cloudier for Northern Ireland and Scotland, there was still some pleasant weather to be had at times. It's actually the first time that warm anticyclonic conditions have persisted for any substantial period during the month of July since 2006!.

So how long is this fine weather expected to last?. Read on to find out more.......

 

Monday 8 July—Sunday 14 July Dry, warm and sunny for most...but not all

 

The anticyclone that has dominated the weather conditions for the last few days will still be in firm control of proceedings at the start of the week. As the week unfolds though, there will be a few subtle changes to weather, mainly for eastern coastal regions.

On Monday the vast majority of the UK will again experience lengthy spells of sunshine and temperatures that register into the mid to high twenties. However a slight shift in wind direction to a gentle northeasterly will introduce the risk of some cooler and potentially murkier conditions for some eastern coastal areas at times, particularly eastern Scotland and northeast England. Patchy low cloud and sea mist may also threaten western Scottish coasts and some Irish Sea coasts.

Tuesday will be a very similar day to Monday, but there will be a slightly increased risk of the odd heavy shower, particularly over hills across northern areas of the UK. That aside, conditions will still be gloriously warm for most, with the highest temperatures to be found across central and southwestern parts. Again, some eastern coastal areas will be threatened by sea fog at times.

 

By the middle of the week, slightly cooler and cloudier North Sea air will start to gradually creep into eastern areas and central parts, with temperatures taking a slight dip, particularly along eastern coasts. Further west though, warm and bright conditions will persist. There could again just be the odd heavy shower over high ground in places.

Towards the end of the week and into next weekend northwest Scotland will be cloudy with patchy rain. Elsewhere should be fine and dry with plenty of sunshine and rising temperatures.

 

Monday 15 July—Sunday 21 July Warm and dry again at first, but signs of a change

 

Confidence is high for the settled spell of weather to continue for the first part of this week and persist in the south. Northwest Scotand remains cloudy with rain at times and by

 

midweek the rain may become heavier.

As the week goes on there are increasing indications that the anticyclone (responsible for the settled and warm weather) will slowly retreat away to the southwest. In its place a predominantly west to northwesterly airstream is expected to form, bringing spells of wet and windy weather to northern areas of the UK. Southern parts of the UK may well hang on to the fine weather for longer though.

 

Monday 22 July—Sunday 4 August Touch and go for the start of August?

 

Early indications suggest that as July comes to a close, settled and warm conditions will persist across southeastern areas of the UK, with spells of wetter and windier weather anticipated for northern parts. As we move into early August though, there is evidence from some long range forecsting tools that suggest a return to periods of changeable weather across the bulk of the UK.

Next week

Will August be any match for the heat the UK has experienced so far in July?. Find out next week....

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Edited July 8, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Summer rolls on!

 

Through the course of the weekend, many parts of Central and southern UK saw their warmest day of the year so far, with temperatures widely rising above 30 degrees across southern counties. Further to the north weather conditions were still largely fine and pleasantly warm, but temperatures were nearer to the seasonal average with a little more in the way of cloud.

 

As this week gets underway, the anticyclone that has been responsible for the largely fine and dry weather will remain in firm control of proceedings. As the week progresses though, there will be a few subtle changes in the weather, but the warm and dry theme will persist for most.

Will we hold on to the summery conditions as we move into August? Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 15 July—Sunday 21 July Warm and sunny for most once again!

 

The Azores High that has been influencing UK weather for the past few weeks will bring further lengthy spells of warm, dry and sunny weather to vast majority of England and Wales. The only real exception to this rule is that some coastal parts (particularly the western fringes), are likely to see a little patchy low cloud and sea mist from time to time. Temperatures will widely reach the high twenties by day, with warm and sultry nights to follow and the risk of patchy dawn mist and fog. As the week unfolds, the chance of afternoon thundery showers will increase, but it should be noted that such storms will be very isolated, with most places remaining dry.

There will be a generally different feel to the weather across Northern Ireland and Scotland. Weak Atlantic weather fronts will tend to brush across northern and western parts, which will have the effect of introducing some slightly cooler air and bringing cloudier skies and the risk of some light rain and drizzle at times. Southeastern parts of both Northern Ireland and Scotland should still see some pleasant weather from time to time though.

Towards the end of the week, pressure will tend to build over northern areas of the UK, which will have the effect of introducing a very light northeasterly wind across all parts of the UK. As a result, eastern coastal areas will be increasingly at risk some occasional spells of cloudy and murky weather, but there should still be plenty of fine weather too. For the bulk of the UK, the light northeasterly breeze will have little impact on overall conditions, with dry and bright the norm for most, but temperatures will probably peak a little lower by day, with maxima registering around the mid-twenties.

 

Monday 22 July—Sunday 28 July Will the high pressure persist?

At this stage all the signs suggest that high pressure will continue to influence the UK weather heading into to the end July. This will mean that we're likely to see more in the way of dry, fine and warm weather for central and southern swathes of the UK, but there are further suggestions that Atlantic fronts will flaunt with northern regions, bringing cloudier skies and the threat of some occasional light rain.

 

Monday 29 July—Sunday 11 August A change on the cards for early August.

Although there is still a significant degree of uncertainty in the longer term forecast, at present the computer models are indicating that a change in weather conditions is likely to gradually come into play early in August. The high pressure system that dominated July's weather looks as if it will start to retract away to the southwest slightly, opening the door to some cooler and more unsettled weather to northern areas of the UK that will eventually transfer to central and some southern parts. However, there's still a reasonable chance that the fine and dry weather will at least persist for a while longer in the far south.

Next week

Any sign of more warm weather for the middle of August? Find out more next week.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

 

Edited July 15, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

The end of the heat and humidity is in sight.

 

After a very summery July so far, it looks like the weather is finally going to break down during this coming week, just in time for the start of the school holidays in England and Wales. There will be an increasing threat of thunderstorms and eventually a cooling down and reduction in the humidity. The weather will generally become much more unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain for all of us. August looks like continuing in this cooler and more unsettled theme, although there will still be some spells of warm sunshine.

 

Monday 22 July—Sunday 28 July A thundery breakdown looms

 

This coming week will be characterised by a gradual breakdown in the hot and sunny weather that has covered our shores over the last few weeks. The week will start off hot and increasingly humid, but already there will be some isolated thunderstorms over southwest England and southwest Wales. Some northeastern coasts will be plagued by low cloud and mist, and will be rather cool as a result. As we head towards the middle of the week, low pressure will become more dominant, increasing the likelihood of some heavy and thundery downpours. Given the very dry ground, these could lead to some localised flooding. Temperatures will gradually drop off and eventually the humidity too. The end of this week and the weekend look quite unsettled, with showers or longer spells of rain for all of us, and only limited amounts of sunshine. Temperatures will fall back down to average, which by day is the high teens Celsius in the north and low twenties Celsius in the south. It should therefore become much more comfortable for all of us.

 

Monday 29 July—Sunday 4 August A typical summery mixed bag

 

The end of July and start of August looks like being rather unsettled, especially towards the north and west of the UK, closest to areas of low pressure. All parts are likely to see showers or longer spells of rain at times, occasionally heavy with a risk of thunder. The best of any drier, brighter and warmer weather will tend to be found towards the south and east of the UK. Temperatures for the most part will be close to the average for the time of year, which of course is considerably lower than they have been recently, although it will be warm in any prolonged sunnier spells, especially in the southeast.

 

Monday 5 August—Sunday 18 August Remaining changeable

 

There is a good deal of uncertainty during this period. Currently there are some indications that northern parts of the UK will most likely be unsettled with outbreaks of rain, but with some drier and brighter interludes at times. Meanwhile, southern areas seem rather more likely on balance to have spells of fine, settled and occasionally warm weather, although with the chance of occasional heavy, perhaps thundery, rain and cooler conditions.

 

Next week

 

With the heat, humidity and fine weather gone, will we see any return of summery conditions in August, or has autumn come early?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited July 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

A new summer month, but no new summer heatwave

 

This July has been characterised by very warm, settled, summery weather, and in fact it has been one of the most significant summer heatwaves for seven years. 33.5°C was recorded at Heathrow and Northolt on Monday 22nd July, the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the UK since July 2006.

The heat has now broken with spells of thundery weather arriving just in time for the start of the school holidays in England and Wales. There will continue to be a threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms this week, albeit with warm sunshine in between, but by and large the heat and humidity has gone... for now. There will be chances for it to make a return into at least the south and east of the country, but by and large the outlook is for changeable conditions to dominate through much of August.

 

Monday 29 July—Sunday 4 August Fresher to start... but warmer to end?

 

This coming week looks like being rather unsettled, with temperatures much lower than during the preceding week. However, they will still be near normal for the time of year, with night-time values returning to more comfortable levels.

There will be less sunshine than we have become accustomed to of late, especially across southern and western parts. What sunshine we do see will be interspersed with showers, and some of these will be heavy with a risk of further thunderstorms in places.

A frontal system and its associated rain look set to move in towards southern parts of the country for Wednesday, before moving northwards by Thursday. To the south of this band of cloud and rain, there is a chance that temperatures will start creeping back up into the very warm or hot categories for the latter part of the working week.

As the end of the week nears, there will once again be an increasing risk of thundery rain developing or moving up from France. Computer models tend to handle such synoptic situations less confidently, so the areas threatened will be hard to pick out until nearer the time. At present though the main risk is for southeastern and eastern parts of the UK. Elsewhere, there will be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with temperatures closer to normal.

During next weekend these somewhat fresher conditions in the north and west will erratically edge eastwards, leading to a risk of further thundery rain in southeastern areas.

 

Monday 5 August—Sunday 11 August Changeable, but with summer not too far away

 

The unsettled theme will probably continue into the first full week of August, with a risk of rain or showers in many areas, perhaps thundery at times.

The bias for the most persistent rain is towards the west and northwest, where it will probably be quite windy at times too as low pressure systems come close.

Meanwhile, southern and southeastern areas, as well as areas further north that lie to the east of high ground, will see an increasing chance of more prolonged drier spells. Temperatures in these areas may continue to be on the warm side at times, otherwise temperatures will generally be close to average.

 

Monday 12 August—Sunday 25 August A continued split in fortunes

 

The latest indications are that the changeable conditions expected during the start of August may persist for much of the rest of the month. Although showers or longer spells of rain are likely to affect the UK at times, these will probably tend to be across northern and western parts more than southern and eastern areas.

There will also be some spells of fine and dry weather, not only for the southern and eastern regions as suggested, but also for central and some northern parts at times.

On the whole, temperatures will probably be around normal for the time of year. However, with the more settled spells in the south and east there will likely be further chances for the temperatures to rise above the August average.

 

Next week

For England and Wales, August's summer bank holiday arrives... will summer have returned to the whole of the UK by then?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited July 29, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Some like it hot...and they'll be disappointed.

 

Alex covered much of July's very passable attempt at summer in last week's monthly outlook. As is the nature of these things, just days later August trumped July's heat with

 

34.1°C at Heathrow on the first day of the month. The rainfall pattern of the month was hugely variable. The total up to 22nd was only 5mm, but the month ended with very heavy downpours and a near-average total of 65mm.

Whilst temperatures for many in the first few days of August have been at or above par, the outlook period suggests little in the way of significantly high temperatures. I suspect that during this holiday period, rainfall and sunshine quantities are of greater concern for those either holiday making or trying to cater for those on a break.

 

Monday 5 August—Sunday 11 August Fronts bring very wet start to period.

 

Fronts, lying on a diagonal from SE Scotland to SW England, will produce 24-36 hours of, at times, heavy rain to southern Scotland, northern and western England and much of

Wales. 20-40mm of rain is expected over a wide area but 60mm to, potentially, 80mm of rain may affect some higher areas with the prospect of some surface water flooding.

Away from this zone, the theme for the north and west of Scotland and Northern Ireland early in the week is sunny spells and showers. During Monday, the rain should have cleared all but the far east of East Anglia by late evening.

Temperatures will lie in the teens to low 20C range. The winds may be noticeable along the south coast for a time but then fall lighter during the evening.

Tuesday should be a predominantly dry day with sunny spells, followed by a more showery day on Wednesday. The one exception to this may lie in some heavy rain, moving off the Near Continent to affect the far southeast of England. We'll keep you posted on that one.

Thursday is another mainly dry day with sunny spells and just a few isolated showers. Again, temperatures will barely warrant a postcard home. By Friday, eyes will turn to the west to await the arrival of rain for northern Scotland and showers more widely across western areas. Many eastern areas should be dry with sunny intervals.

 

Monday 12 August—Sunday 18 August Pressure builds to settle southern Britain.

 

Whilst the headline may offer encouragement to those in that area, it's telling in what it doesn't say. Lower pressure will sit just to the north of the British Isles, and the resultant westerly airstream will bring a mix of rain, sunny spells and showers, especially into northern and western parts.

Rainfall and temperature forecasts will err towards the disappointing whilst sunnier periods will help to keep those stats closer to the seasonal norm.

Monday 19 August—Sunday 1 September Signs of a more dominant high for southern Britain

High pressure may well exert a greater influence across more of southern Britain, offering the hope of above average sunshine amounts for both southwest England and southern Wales. Other parts should fare well too. There is also a signal for some warmth for Northern Ireland, northeast England and eastern Scotland. Time will tell.

 

Next week

 

How does the weather look for your holiday plans? Check the prospects here

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited August 5, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Summary

 

Summer looks to end with a whimper

 

With the 10 year anniversary of the hottest day ever recorded in the UK on the 10th August 2013, I'm sure the question on many people's lips is...'are we about to have a repeat performance?'. Well, with the outlook showing very little in the way of significantly high temperatures on the horizon, some are set to be disappointed.

 

Monday 12 August—Sunday 18 August

 

North west, south east split set to develop

 

The following week looks set for a healthy mix of both sunshine and showers intertwined with some more prolonged spells of rain at times. A north west, south east split looks set to develop with the coolest and wettest conditions through the north and west. However, southern and eastern parts will see the best of the drier and brighter weather. Temperatures are expected to hold up fairly nicely, around normal for what we would expect for this time of year, perhaps even slightly warmer than average in south eastern areas.

 

Monday 19 August—Sunday 25 August

 

Quieter spell as pressure builds

 

At the start of this period weather conditions look set to remain fairly unsettled with both sunshine and showers mixed with longer spells of rain. Again, northern and western parts are likely to see the worst of the cloud and rain, with southern and eastern areas largely escaping. Towards the end of the week a slight improvement is expected with pressure starting to build. This should allow temperatures to start creeping up, especially in the south.

 

Monday 26 August—Sunday 8 September

 

August bank holiday weekend outlook

 

Looking out towards the end of this month and the start of September, there are no strong signals to suggest the most dominant weather pattern. It's most likely that for the August bank holiday we will see a continuation of the north west, south east split. But it's not all doom and gloom if you live in the north, a potential spell of more settled weather may be on the horizon for the start of September. Watch this space...

 

Next week

 

Making plans for the August bank holiday? Keep up to date on all the weather developments in the next monthly outlook.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Summary

 

Summer to end on a changeable note

 

As we progress into the latter part of August, the end of the meteorological summer draws ever closer. But what implications does the imminent shift in season have for the UK's weather? The good news is that it looks probable that most areas of the UK will have at least some further spells of summer-like weather over the next few weeks, particularly the more southern and eastern parts of the UK. There will still be a few more unsettled periods of weather though.

 

Read on to find out more...

 

Monday 19 August—Sunday 25 August

 

Cloudy and damp to the north, warm in the south

 

The week gets underway with high pressure dominating conditions across the bulk of the UK. Indeed, Monday will bring a good deal of fine and dry weather, with some lengthy spells of sunshine for all areas. Conditions will be predominantly dry, but there could just be the odd light shower across the far north of Scotland, where there will also be a keen westerly wind. Tuesday will start on a a similarly dry and settled note, with little change from the bright and increasingly warm conditions for much of the UK. However, as the day progresses an area of low pressure will swing in from the Atlantic, bringing increasing amounts of cloud and the threat of rain to Northern Ireland and western Scotland.  By Wednesday, the steadily weakening low pressure system across northern areas will bring plenty of cloud and some outbreaks of mainly light and patchy rain to the northwestern half of the UK. Southeastern areas are expected to stay dry, bright and increasingly warm with temperatures edging towards the high twenties.  As we head into Friday, a series of weather fronts will gather in the Atlantic, bringing the increasing threat of cloud and rain to western areas of the UK, with eastern parts staying warm and dry.  At the time of writing, the confidence in forecast detail for the bank holiday weekend was lower than usually expected, but as the weekend unfolds, it's likely that most places will see a period of cloudier and damper weather, at least for time. That's not to say that there won't be some drier and brighter weather around too though, with a build in pressure anticipated from the west later in the weekend. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts for the bank holiday weekend!!

 

Monday 26 August—Sunday 1 September

 

Dry and bright again for many...most of the time!

 

The last week of summer looks as though it will see the remnants of any bank holiday weather systems quickly clearing away to the east. We can then expect the top and tail of the UK to be affected by some showery and potentially blustery conditions from time to time, with plenty of dry weather for central parts. As the week draws on, a northwest/southeast split in weather conditions is envisaged, with the possibility of the onset of some more unsettled weather for northwestern areas of the UK, but conversely the prospect of some dry, bright and warm weather for the southeast.

 

Monday 2 September—Sunday 15 September

 

A typical start to the meteorological autumn?

 

At this early stage, it looks likely that autumn will get underway in typical fashion, with Atlantic weather systems crossing northwestern parts of the UK, bringing spells of wet and windy weather. Further to the south and east, some warm and dry weather is expected. Temperatures look as if they will be around about average for the time of year.

 

Next week

 

How will September unfold? Find out more next week...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

 

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

A reasonably promising end to summer?

In the world of weather, the end of August marks the end of summer. However, summer-like weather looks set to continue well into September for many parts of the UK.

Saturday brought some cloudy and very wet weather for many eastern and central parts at times, with western counties staying drier and brighter. The remainder of the weekend gave some drier and brighter conditions, and that theme is set to continue for many parts of the UK as we head through this week. Southern and eastern areas will fair best in terms of sunshine. Further to the north and west we can expect a little more in the way of showers and cloud at times, although even these parts should have some brighter and drier intervals.

Moving further on into mid-September, at this stage it looks like pressure wil remain relatively high across much of the UK, resulting in a good deal of fine weather for much of the time.

Read on to find out the details.......

 

Monday 26 August—Sunday 1 September Fine and dry in the south, showery further north.

 

This week gets under way with high pressure firmly in control of proceedings. This has ensured a rather chilly start to Monday, with a few early mist and fog patches. Temperatures will recover nicely by late morning with temperatures widely peaking into the mid-twenties in Celsius. The early low cloud and mist that formed will gradually disperse, giving the majority of the UK a pleasant summers day. The vast majority of places will stay dry. During Monday evening a weak weather front will start to make inroads into the far northwest of Scotland, bring a few spots of rain to end the day.

 

Tuesday will be another fine and dry day for southeastern parts. The weak weather front affecting northwestern Scotland will slowly sink south as Tuesday progresses, introducing cloud to central areas of the UK. The front will be weak, so any rain will be light and patchy by the time it reaches Wales and The Midlands.

Wednesday is expected to start off on a cloudy note, but the cloud should thin to give another bright, mainly dry and, on the whole, pleasant day. There could be the odd shower across central and northwestern parts.

A similar round of proceedings are anticipated for the latter parts of this week. Thursday is expected to be a fine and dry day, but through the course of the rest of Thursday and into Friday, a steadily weakening weather from will gradually sink southeastwards across the UK, introducing more cloud and the chance of a few spits and spots of rain to all parts.

Into the weekend, early mist and fog may become more widepsread on both days, but plenty of fine weather is expected for most. There will however again be the risk of a few showers, chiefly for the far northwest.

 

Monday 2 September—Sunday 8 September September getting off to a decent start.

 

At time of writing, the forecast for the first week of September suggests that much of the UK can look forward to some further dry and bright weather. There are indications that the best of the weather will tend to be found across southeast England and East Anglia, with the chance that northwestern regions of the UK may be occasionally threatened by some showery weather that may turn into some more prolenged spells of rain now and then. Overall though, it looks as if the majority of us can loook forward to a reasonable start to the meteorological autumn. Daytime temperatures look like they will peak at around about the average for the time of year on most days, with overnight temperatures perhaps dropping touch below average. There are also suggestions that early morning mist and fog patches may become more prevalent as the week wears on.

 

Monday 9 September—Sunday 22 September Will the weather turn autumnal by mid-September?

Heading into the middle of September, the longer range forecast is initially signalling the continuation of the mainly dry and settled weather anticipated for the early part of the month. Northern and western areas are once again at a greater risk of occasional showery period, with the best of the weather expected for the south and east. However, there are indications that weather systems will start to cross the UK with greater frequency during the second half of the period, suggesting the potential prevalence of a more generally unsettled theme. Tempearures look like they'll be around about the average for the time of year.

 

Next week

As summer draws to a close, how long can we hang on to the summer-like weather. Find out more next week.....

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited August 26, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Summer's last gasp?

 

For compiling climatological statistics and thus allowing easy seasonal comparison year-on-year, a year is divided up into neat, three-month chunks. Thus, as far as forecasters in the Northern Hemisphere are concerned, September marks the start of meteorological autumn.

 

The equinox on the 22nd September 2013 marks the start of autumn astronomically speaking; this is the point when days equal nights, and from then on nights will be longer than days until the winter solstice.

 

So what will the weather bring us during this transitional period from long, hazy summer days into the season of mists and mellow fruitfulness? For some parts of the UK it looks as though the weather will be rather summerlike at times for another couple of weeks at least, although bouts of autumnal weather will never be too far away.

 

Monday 2 September—Sunday 8 September Summer bites back

The weekend just gone had some distinctly autumnal flavours, with some wet and windy weather in northern parts and chilly, crisp mornings in the south. Summer's making a comeback this week however, with temperatures on the rise again.

The start of the week will see cloudy and breezy conditions continuing across northern Britain, with outbreaks of rain in northwestern parts on Monday and Tuesday. Elsewhere it'll be fine

 

and dry with some warm sunny spells, and feeling rather summerlike.

 

Fronts remain close to the far northwest of the country on Wednesday, but the dry and warm, if not very warm weather spreads to encompass a greater proportion of the country. Once any early morning mist or fog patches lift, a sunny day is in prospect.

A cold front slips southeastwards on Wednesday night to split the country roughly into two for Thursday. The northwest will be cool and fresh but largely fine with sunshine and just a few scattered showers. The front itself will see its rain mostly dying out, and then to its southeast it will be dry, sunny and very warm if not locally hot.

That northwest-southeast division is likely to remain during Friday, with northwestern areas again seeing generally dry weather with variable cloud. There is an increasing likelihood of more unsettled conditions developing over southern and eastern parts of UK however, with showery outbreaks of rain perhaps turning heavy and thundery. Temperatures will range from rather cool in the north to warm in the south.

The detail of this heavy rain carries low confidence at the time of writing, although the overall confidence in an unsettled theme to the end of the week is increasing.

 

Monday 9 September—Sunday 15 September Season of mists and mellow fruitfulness

Heading into the middle of September, it will be initially unsettled in the south, but quieter weather is expected to gradually develop here, with drier conditions returning. Some morning mist and fog patches are likely, eventually lifting mid-morning to warm sunny spells.

By contrast, northern parts are likely to see the return of unsettled weather once again, with showers or longer periods of rain making it feel as though autumn is starting to take hold here.

Temperatures will be near normal for the time of year in the north, but locally warm in the south after the chilly dawn periods. So there may still be a feeling that summer hasn't quite left the south of the UK just yet, even if the misty mornings require an extra layer of clothing.

Monday 16 September—Sunday 29 September Will the warm days never cease?

During the second half of September, as astronomical autumn arrives, there is no clear signal emerging for any particular weather pattern to dominate across the UK. As a consequence, the chances of above and below average rainfall are equally probable.

However, in terms of temperature, the balance of probabilities favours slightly above average conditions, perhaps implying there is still the potential for some settled, bright days with warm sunshine.

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited September 2, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monday 9 September Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Autumn takes control, but will summer fight back?

 

At long last most of us can proclaim "we've had a summer!"

Climatologically it may not have been an exceptional one, but it was certainly the warmest and sunniest since 2006, and in England the driest since 1996. Plus, being off the back of a run of

six wet summers, it was the summer most of us were crying out for.

As we started the autumn months it seemed that summer wanted to stay, with 30C reached in southeast England on Thursday 5th September.

And then the autumn charge began!

 

So now that it's here, will autumn maintain it's cool and misty grip on us? Or, is summer only hiding behind a fruit laden apple tree ready to sneak back into view?

 

Monday 9 September—Sunday 15 September Morning mists and midweek rains

To start the week, there will be no doubt that we are into the autumn months. The nights will be chilly, even frosty in a few sheltered rural spots, and the mornings misty, with some dense fog patches. The days will will bring some sunshine, but also sporadic showers.

 

On Tuesday however, an area of low pressure in the North Sea, and its weather fronts, are likely to strike a glancing blow to some eastern counties of England. Strong, chilly winds and the threat of heavy rain will linger in the air for much of the day. Further north and west, brighter skies will dominate over the showers.

By midweek, pressure builds across the south bringing drier conditions again. Winds off the Atlantic will also bring a rise in temperatures, back to around the average if not a little above in southern and eastern areas, with highs back into the low 20's. The same winds though, will also bring some longer spells of rain to the northwest later Wednesday into Thursday. The weather front responsible will head south as a decaying feature, but may still bring some rain to the south on Friday.

The misty and cool autumn mornings are back for the weekend, but whilst many in the south and the east look to be dry, more rain and stronger winds arrive into the north and west.

 

Monday 16 September—Sunday 22 September Summer attempts to say High again

With an Azores high pressure cell becoming established to the southwest, our weather will come from the Atlantic through the week.

Pressure will always be the highest towards the south, and so it's here where the driest and sunniest conditions (and hints of a fading summer) will be, but as it looks like we'll remain on the periphery of the Azores High, don't expect the shorts and t-shirts to be standard wear for the week.

Autumn will still have the edge over summer as some spells of wet and rather windy weather are expected at times across the northwest of the UK in particular. And at times some of that weather will edge southwards and eastwards.

As a consequence temperatures in the north and west may remain below where we would expect for mid-September, but closer to (if not a little above) average at times in the south and east.

 

Monday 23 September—Sunday 6 October Summer days and autumn nights

No sooner do we pass the equinox and the start of the astronomical autumn, does it start to look like summer may muscle itself back into view.

As the fruit falls from the trees and the leaves take on an array of delightful browns, oranges and yellows, our Azores High looks set to build a little more widely across the UK. Some dry and sunny days are expected in most parts, with daytime temperatures lifting a little above the average for the time of year.

Autumn does not completely take a back seat though. As the nights grow longer, the mornings will still be a little chilly at times and fog patches that form will take a tad longer to shift. There is also a sign that into the start of October, weather fronts and stronger winds return to the north and west.

 

Next week

Now that we are staring into October, a weather forecaster's eyes are often scanning the charts for the potential two extremes of weather. Will the run up to the October half-term be blighted by autumn gales, or will we be tempting you with talk of an Indian Summer?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

 

Edited September 9, 2013 by Stuart

[Methuselah]

Who writes that thing?

[Summer Sun]

It will be interesting to see if they go the warmer route for next week as was hinted at on yesterdays week ahead forecast

[Stuart]

Monday 16 September Published at 10:00

 

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Typically autumnal with some reminders of summer

You may be forgiven for thinking we have seen the last of any summer-like warmth. On some days last week, we saw daytime temperatures struggling up to only 12 Celsius. For example in

 

Scarborough on

 

Tuesday 10 September, the top temperature was only 11.3 Celsius. And it's been not only a cool period of weather but also a very windy one with a deep area of low pressure to the north of Scotland. Windy spells of weather are often associated with the autumn equinox which occurs on Saturday 22 September. However there are still indications of high pressure building at times towards the end of September. At the same time, winds start to come up from a warmer southwesterly direction bringing a rise in temperatures.

 

Monday 16 September—Sunday 22 September Things can only get better

There's a cool, windy, showery look to the weather during the first half of this week. The showers will be most frequent and heaviest in the north although a period of more persistent rain will affect southwest England for a time on Tuesday. Winds staying strong to gale force on Monday with severe gales over parts of northern Scotland, beginning to ease down on Tuesday.

 

On Wednesday, there will be a lot of dry weather with sunny spells. Showers will be fewer and lighter with many of them in the north of the UK. Still quite windy and cool.

Then another band of rain looks set to cross the country during Thursday. This will be followed an improving picture as we go through Friday and into the weekend across more southern and eastern areas. Drier, brighter conditions will develop with temperatures returning to near normal, and even a little above average in the south east of the UK. There will still be a changeable look to the weather for Northern Ireland and Scotland but becoming warmer here too.

 

Monday 23 September—Sunday 29 September Do not put summer clothes away just yet

High pressure looks set to bring a lot of dry, settled weather, especially over more southern and eastern parts of the country. There will be some warmer days by late September standards, especially across the south east of the UK. It will stay cooler across Scotland and Northern Ireland. It will be a week of much lighter winds compared with the coming week.

However high pressure at this time brings along its own set of problems with early morning mist and fog patches along with some chilly nights.

There weather will not be completely settled. There will continue to be showers at times towards the west, especially during the second half of the week.

 

Monday 30 September—Sunday 13 October No sign of an Indian summer...

which by definition is a warm, settled spell of weather in October.

It looks as though high pressure will begin to move away into the Continent, allowing low pressure to approach from the Atlantic.

 

This will bring a return to a more changeable weather pattern during the first half of October. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain across the country, the rain heavy and persistent at times, especially across Northern Ireland and western Scotland.

There will still be some drier, brighter days, most likely across the south east of the UK. Here temperatures will remain close to average for early October but it will be cooler in the north where it will be windy at times.

 

Next week

Any break from the changeable weather pattern?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#outlook

Edited September 16, 2013 by Stuart

[Summer Sun]

Summary

 

Autumn fights back...

 

Over the past week we have seen constantly changing weather conditions. One day it was cloudy with rain, the next it was mostly dry with some sun. We also saw some cold and windy weather, especially during the first half of last week. Winds had been feeding down from Iceland keeping temperatures well below the mid-September average and even bringing a covering of snow to some of the Scottish mountains. Towards the end of the week, we began to see marked changes taking place. Low pressure responsible for the changeable conditions was replaced by high pressure which has brought a lot of dry and settled weather. The other big change was in the wind direction, switching round to the southwest and feeding warmer air from the Azores up across much of the country. This has brought temperatures as high as 24 Celsius.

 

Monday 23 September—Sunday 29 September We say goodbye to the high

 

The week starts off with high pressure dominating our weather. This will maintain the dry, settled conditions with still some warm air resulting in temperatures several degrees above what we would normally expect in the last week of September. Having moved past the autumn equinox last Saturday, the sun is now at a lower angle in the sky. This will mean that overnight mist and fog will take longer to burn off during the mornings than it would have done a few weeks ago. On Tuesday, rain will develop in the north and may edge a little further southwards during Wednesday. Southern parts of England and Wales will hang on to a lot of dry and bright weather and will stay warm. There will be further outbreaks of rain on Thursday and Friday, mainly over the southern half of Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England. The far north of Scotland will become drier, brighter and colder. There will still be a lot of dry, warm weather over much of Wales and the southern half of England with an increasing chance of showers breaking out. Into the weekend, the remnants of the high pressure will finally move away and low pressure will bring changeable weather to all areas. It will be colder in the north but still on the warm side in the south.

 

Monday 30 September—Sunday 6 October A change in month and some changeable weather

 

Low pressure looks set to dominate the weather during the first week in October with showers or some longer spells of rain. The heaviest of the rain is expected to be over parts of England and Wales during the first half of the week where it will still be on the mild side. There are indications that a ridge of high pressure will give some drier, brighter and colder weather in the north. During the second half of the week, outbreaks of rain are expected to spread up across all parts and becoming heaviest across the north west of the UK. It will also become windy at times across Scotland and Northern Ireland with a risk of gales. Some drier weather will follow to the south and east where temperatures will remain near to normal.

 

Monday 7 October—Sunday 20 October All is not lost...

 

Although the first week of October will see some unsettled weather, there are signs of drier, quieter interludes as we go through the month, these lasting longest over southern and eastern areas. This will result in some dry and bright days but some mist and fog at nights which will be slow to clear by day. There will be some changeable weather, especially towards the north and west with showers or some more prolonged periods of rain. Daytime temperatures staying close to normal but still some warmer days by October standards in the south and east. Clear periods at nights will see temperatures dip to freezing with frosts becoming more widespread.

Next week

 

Any sign of colder weather?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited September 23, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

October's forecast - something for all

 

As September 2013 draws to a close, we can say adieu to a month which has been rather dull and dry in general, with temperatures close to normal. This contrasts neatly with September

 

2012 which was the coldest September since 1994, and rather wet but also sunnier than average. In October 2012 sunshine and rainfall amounts were about average, but it continued the

 

previous month's cold theme by being the coldest October since 2003. It doesn't look as though this October will be anywhere near as chilly, but will it continue in the same vein as its preceding month? Current indications suggest that at least the first two weeks could see temperatures warmer than average, albeit not particularly settled to begin with...

 

Monday 30 September—Sunday 6 October Warm, but unsettled until the weekend

 

The week ahead is looking rather unsettled and windy at times, with the Scandinavian high staying put whilst low pressure dominates the eastern Atlantic. This however means a generally southerly flow across the UK, leading to above average temperatures by day and night, although the blustery wind might act to take the edge off at times in the north and east. The north and east of the country is however most favoured for drier conditions and above average amounts of sunshine this week. Conversely, the south and west will be more likely to feel the effects of frontal systems associated with the Atlantic lows, leading to cloudier skies and higher rainfall totals from showers or bands of heavy and potentially thundery rain moving northeastwards. As the Scandinavian high retreats, fronts may finally clear all the way across the country on Friday, followed by sunshine and blustery showers and a fresher feel. Most areas are likely to turn quieter on Saturday, with temperatures nearer to average. The southeastern half of the UK looks set to be most settled over the weekend, and lighter winds may allow some patchy mist or fog overnight. The northwestern half is more likely to remain at risk from weather fronts bringing rain, although it may be only far northwestern areas which see spells of rain at the weekend.

 

Monday 7 October—Sunday 13 October A return to mists and mellow fruitfulness?

 

Into the early part of next week, low pressure will be held mainly across Iceland, with the Azores high to the southwest of the UK. As a result, northwestern areas will probably remain unsettled with spells of rain, whilst the drier and more settled spell looks set to prevail across southern, central and eastern areas. Temperatures will be near or just above average, perhaps turning locally warm in the southeast once again. Conversely, nights will be chillier with a risk of overnight mist and fog, which - typically for autumn - will be slow to clear during the mornings. Thereafter, as the week progresses, conditions are likely to more unsettled with periods of rain returning countrywide, interspersed by brighter but showery spells. Temperatures are likely to return to something close to average for the time of year, perhaps below normal at times in the north and northwest.

 

Monday 14 October—Sunday 27 October Unsettled again, especially for the north

 

A fairly even spread of solutions in the computer model means there are no strong indications as to most likely weather type during the second half of October. Signs suggest that low pressure will remain anchored across Iceland, with the Azores high retreating into the mid-Atlantic, allowing a generally unsettled west to southwesterly flow. If so, most regions should have near normal temperatures and rainfall, whilst over southern parts of the UK conditions may be slightly drier and slightly warmer than average if the Azores high can exert enough of an influence here.

Next week

How will October draw to a close? Will November 2013 start on as chilly a note as November 2012?

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited September 30, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Summary

 

A switch from summer to winter?

 

The first week of October was characterised by temperatures above average for the time of year, albeit with some rather wet weather in places, before the weekend - and some quieter weather - arrived. The weekend itself saw the highest maximum temperatures exceed 20°C on both days, and the same is likely to be true for the start of the new working week. However, by this coming weekend, things will feel quite, quite different...

 

Monday 7 October—Sunday 13 October From southerly to northerly, warm to cold

 

We start this week with low pressure held to the north and the Azores high to the southwest of the UK. By the end of the week, the anticyclone will be to our west and low pressure will be to the east, leaving us squarely under a northerly air flow. And we know what that means!Before we get there though the week starts with outbreaks of rain continuing across northern and western parts, locally heavy across northwest Scotland. Rather cloudy elsewhere, but some brighter spells developing, mainly to the east of high ground. In those brighter spells temperatures will rise smartly. On Tuesday it will be fairly cloudy across the country, with patchy light rain in central parts clearing southwards through the day. Brighter skies will follow on Wednesday, but also with a few showers. Wednesday is the transition day, with cooler northwesterly winds bringing those showers to the north of the country, along with the start of the marked temperature drop. By Thursday, all will be feeling the chill as the wind veers further around to northerly and showers get driven southwards across country, turning to snow over the Scottish mountains. At the end of the week, with high pressure to the west and low to the east, the eastern side of the UK will likely see the heaviest showers, as well as the strongest winds and thus most marked wind chill. The showers may merge into a more persistent spell of rain in the southeast on Friday, combining with the wind to make it feel especially cold. To the west, while it will be drier and more settled nearer to the high pressure, at night under clear skies a ground frost is a certainty. If the heating hasn't yet been on this autumn, it will be a challenge to resist by the weekend. At the weekend, current indications suggest central and western areas will be largely dry with sunny spells and night frosts, whilst eastern and particularly southeastern areas will remain cloudier with showers and that marked wind chill.

 

Monday 14 October—Sunday 20 October Change places!

 

Next week starts as the weekend ended, although with lower confidence in the location of the boundary between cold, windy and wet weather in the east and the west's drier and brighter conditions. Come midweek however, another switch around is currently signalled. The indicated change is for a return of the unsettled weather to the west, and for the east to become drier with more sunshine. With this, the temperatures may recover to nearer normal for the time of year.

 

Monday 21 October—Sunday 3 November Back to where we started?

 

Further ahead, the balance of probabilities currently suggests a more typical northwest-southeast split developing as we head towards the end of October, with the unsettled weather favouring the north and west whilst the south and east is favoured for more sunshine. However even here it could remain somewhat changeable. However, temperatures will be closer to the average for late October and early November, and it may even become rather warm again in sunnier parts of the east or southeast. With night frosts thus becoming less likely, could it be that the heating will go off again for a while?

 

Next week

 

Can the heating stay off throughout the first full week of November?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Is there more cold weather on the way?

 

Last week saw a bitter transition into much colder weather which brought the first frost to many grounds around the UK. The lowest minimum temperature we saw last week was -2.8°C on

 

Friday 11th October recorded at Tyndrum in Scotland. Yet again though it looks as if change is on the cards and temperatures for most could once again be on the up.

 

Monday 14 October—Sunday 27 October East meets West

 

We start this working week with eastern England clinging on to the low pressure centre that has brought us plenty of rainfall over the past few days. This will continue to bring cloudier skies with patchy rain and drizzle for eastern regions of the United Kingdom for the start of the week; the best of the brighter spells being towards northern and western regions. Mid-week is when we start to see the big switch. Weather systems will start to approach from the west, rather than the north and east, with bands of rain crossing the country. These will also be accompanied with some fairly lively winds at times. The east of the UK will become drier, the west will become wetter, but all will become slightly warmer with temperatures by the end of the week rising to roughly what we would expect for this time of year - if not slightly above!

 

Monday 21 October—Sunday 3 November Unsettled weather continuing

 

At this stage next week looks set to have weather systems continuing to push in from the west bringing plenty of rain for southern and western locations. Drier and brighter conditions prevail in the east and north where there is slightly more shelter from a westerly wind. Next week also looks set to have warmer nights than of late; temperatures should stay fairly mild through the night with frosts unlikely for most.

 

Monday 28 October—Sunday 17 November High pressure set to build from the south

 

Looking further ahead it looks like the weather for most of us is going to stay unsettled with plenty of frontal systems pushing in from the Atlantic on a brisk westerly wind. One slight difference to the outlook is an area of high pressure that looks set to push up over southern regions of the UK. Towards to the start of November it is likely that this zone will push low pressure systems increasingly to the north of the UK. High pressure building in the south will allow the weather to settle down here with a mixture of cloud and brighter spells. Fog will become increasingly probable during this period however, and given the time of year may be fairly sluggish to clear during the mornings.Temperatures are expected to be about what we would anticipate for this time of year, ranging in the low teens, but will start to feel somewhat cooler in the north and east with the risk of overnight frosts increasing, especially in north east Scotland.

 

Next week

 

Will the slightly warmer weather stay with us through November?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Stuart

[Stuart]

Monthly Outlook Summary

 

Enjoy the autumn colours whilst they last...

 

The dramatic rise in temperatures recently for many parts of the UK may have made some question why winter coats have been excavated from the back of the wardrobe. The weather last week turned fairly mild for most, thanks to a warm feed of air moving in from the south west. The thermometers peaked in Goudhurst, Kent on Thursday 17th where just over 19C (66F) was recorded.

 

Monday 21 October—Sunday 27 October Wet and windy for all

 

With low pressure seemingly anchored to the west of the United Kingdom a turbulent week of weather is in store. If you have any outdoor plans you may find the weather intervening over the coming week. A wet week is forecast for all parts either because of heavy showers or more prolonged spells of rain. Despite all this rain, however, it will feel mild. Temperatures by mid-week in the south could be up in the high teens, 4-5C above what we would expect for this time of year. Towards the end of the week slightly cooler air will encroach from the northwest, and this could introduce the risk of a touch of frost to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Northern England.

 

Monday 28 October—Sunday 3 November Are we stuck with low pressure over the UK?

 

With low pressure still expected to be flirting with the shores of the British Isles, all signs point to our weather remaining unsettled into early November. One subtle change in the positioning of the low pressure centre, with it migrating to the north of the UK, which may mean that southern and eastern parts are spared the worst of the weather. Rain and showers should become increasingly confined to northern and western parts. Temperatures by this stage will start to fall closer to the seasonal norm.

 

Monday 4 November—Sunday 24 November Changing month; Changing weather?

 

Looking further ahead into November, the unsettled conditions look set to stay with us, with the main focus for rain continuing over northern and western parts of the UK. It will continue to be mild with daytime highs reaching the mid-teens in the south; overnight frosts are unlikely. In northern and western regions, under cloudier skies, temperatures will be lower - closer to what we would expect for this time of year. For the second week of November indications point to a slight cooling off for most areas, although remaining unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather for all parts. Frost and fog could become an increasing risk.

 

Next week

 

Will the mild weather continue through November too?

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Edited October 21, 2013 by Stuart