BBC Weather Monthly Outlook...

[Stuart]

Summary

Dominant high pressure offers dry and warm weather

The run up to this year's rather late Easter will be marked by a lot of fine and dry weather across many parts of the British Isles. Music to the ears of parents with children of school age. A welcome forecast too for those running attractions and garden centres.

The date of Easter in the calendar is as variable as the weather it can bring. One would hope that an Easter towards the end of April would bring somewhat improved prospects on one in the third week in March. This is not always the case. Genuinely hot and sunny spells tend not to coincide with the festival. On balance though, 2011 should be better than average.

Monday 18 April 2011 to Sunday 24 April 2011

High pressure keeps Atlantic fronts at bay.

High pressure will attempt to provide fine, dry weather for much of the week. As is often the case, such a feature will not bring wall-to-wall sunshine, merely a more settled outlook. April showers will be confined to the southeast of England on Monday night and to the southwest on Thursday. Fronts will bring rain to northern Scotland on both Tuesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees above average in many inland parts, whilst onshore breezes and some low cloud may keep coastal areas, particularly North Sea coasts, a shade cooler.

Rainfall, not for the first time in recent weeks, will be below or even well below the seasonal norm. Western areas of the British Isles might, and it is only a 'might', see some rain by next weekend.

Monday 25 April 2011 to Sunday 1 May 2011

Chance of showers increases but dry weather rules.

Late April should have more fine and dry weather. The chances of scattered showers will increase slightly in both western Scotland and the Midlands but these areas will be the exception to the rule.

Sunshine amounts could be well above average, with temperatures responding to these higher levels. Rainfall will be well below the norm, except perhaps in the Midlands, where showers could be heavy.

Monday 2 May 2011 to Sunday 15 May 2011

Little change in the overall pattern

The headline tells the tale. There will, of course, be some variation in shower distribution through the period. Temperatures will also vary depending on wind direction. Coastal sites, especially those bordering the North Sea, will always take something of a hit with onshore breezes.

The general theme, however, is to keep temperatures in southern and western areas of the British Isles above average, with other parts not too far behind.

Sunshine amounts will also be up, especially away from East Anglia and southeast England, where showers may become prevalent at times.

Next week

Planning an outdoor event? Check the weather prospects here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Turning cooler with some welcome rain for some

The week just gone was notable for some very warm, dry and sunny weather across many parts of the UK.

The average temperatures for the end of April, in southeast England is about 14 Celsius. Easter Saturday saw the culmination of the recent warmth, it turned out to be the warmest April day since 1949, after 27.8 Celsius was recorded at Wisley in Surrey.

We won't be seeing temperatures like that in the coming week, a slow change is taking place with temperatures dropping back to nearer the norm.

Monday 25 April 2011 to Sunday 1 May 2011

Turning cooler

A weak cold front will spread down across the UK during Monday and Tuesday, not much rain but a fair bit of cloud around and more importantly, that cold front will introduce some fresher air to all parts and any smog should clear as that process takes place.

With the fresher air in place there is the risk of overnight frosts, especially in the northern half of the UK.

Wednesday sees high pressure in control and it will probably be the sunniest day of the week for all parts, with a noticeable breeze and temperatures peaking at around 16 Celsius.

The latter part of the week sees the centre of the High drifting towards Scandinavia, allowing a keen easterly breeze to develop over England and Wales, where it will also be quite cloudy with some rain at times.

At this stage, it's difficult to say whether or not it will rain on William and Catherine's big day but it certainly looks quite cloudy and breezy for the Royal wedding.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably stay dry and bright to end the week, similar patterns persisting into the weekend.

Monday 2 May 2011 to Sunday 8 May 2011

A northwest / southeast split

With high pressure establishing itself over Scandinavia, its influence will still be felt in Scotland and Northern Ireland where it should be quite a good week of largely dry and bright conditions although a few showers are likely later on.

For England and Wales, around the southern edge of the high, conditions are likely to be more cyclonic and therefore more unsettled.

Easterly winds will be quite fresh at times bringing quite a lot of cloud and some occasional rain, consequently North Sea coastal areas will feel quite chilly while further west, with less cloud and rain, temperatures should be around or a little bit better than average.

Monday 9 May 2011 to Sunday 22 May 2011

More welcome rain in Eastern England.

The middle part of May could well see some welcome rain in central, southern and eastern parts of England, certainly an increase in amounts of rain compared to recents weeks.

As this rain is likely to be quite showery in nature there should also be some lengthy dry spells with some sunshine. Infact, many parts of the UK can expect at least their fair share of blue sky.

Northern parts of the UK can also expect some rain but no more than normal.

With easterly winds still dominating, especially at first, temperatures in most eastern areas are expected to be around average, but in the southwest of the UK it could well be a little warmer than you might expect.

Next week

Find out what the end of May has to offer

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

A very warm and dry spring so so far...

The statistics haven't been fully compiled yet but it does look like April 2011 will go down as the warmest April on record.

Not just warm but also very dry for large swathes of the UK. That of course comes off the back of a very dry March.

Gardeners, farmers and water companies are all hoping to see some significant rain, but there's not much of that in the outlook, at least not for the first week or so.......

Monday 2 May 2011 to Sunday 8 May 2011

Staying dry for most

High pressure over Scandinavia and low pressure in the Atlantic will maintain a strong east or southeasterly airflow over the UK early in the week.

The air will also turn a little cooler with the lowest daytime temperatures likely on Tuesday, typically 12 to 15C, which is pretty much where they should be at this time of year.

As the low in the Atlantic gets a bit closer by midweek, we start to see more of a southerly breeze developing, and daytime temperatures should respond, getting above average, with 18 to 22C by Friday.

In terms of rain, most places will stay dry for most of the week. However, there will be some rain in the southwest of England; thundery showers are likely here but even those should ease off during Tuesday.

Then we look out to the west, towards the slowly advancing Atlantic low. It will make its presence felt in Northern Ireland with wind and rain on Thursday, that rain only slowly clearing away into western Scotland during Friday.

So the southwest of England and Northern Ireland may see a bit more than their fair share of rain but elsewhere the very dry story continues.

And with all the dry weather comes a good deal of sunshine, although some North Sea coasts might be quite grey at times.

Monday 9 May 2011 to Sunday 15 May 2011

An east / west split developing

High pressure is likely to build over western parts of the UK , with generally fine weather here. Pressure is likely to be that bit lower in the east resulting in more unsettled conditions. However, confidence in the rainfall details is relatively low.

But hopefully we'll see some very welcome rain in the east of England and eastern Scotland, and in places there may be a bit more than you might expect for the time of year.

Further west it looks like a mostly dry story with below average rainfall for western England and Wales. Northern Ireland and western Scotland probably seeing close to normal amounts of rain.

In spite of some rain there should also be plenty of sunshine for most parts and temperatures should respond.

In fact, it looks like a warm week just about everywhere with temperatures generally above or even well above the norm, which is 13 to 17C. It's just the far north of Scotland where it may be a bit on the cool side.

Monday 16 May 2011 to Sunday 29 May 2011

Staying warm

A ridge of high pressure should extend across most of the country from the southwest. Low pressure is likely in the northeast.

Consequently, parts of eastern Scotland may well be quite wet but the southeast of England is likely to be on the dry side of normal.

Sunshine amounts are expected be around normal for most places but it should be another warm week with temperatures a bit higher than expectations for many, while in the southeast of the UK we could see some very warm weather.

Next week

What does the start of summer have to offer?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

This looks disappointingly familiar

After what seems like weeks of trying, the Atlantic weather has broken through: This May looks more like April at least at first.

As the month progresses it looks as though the wind favours coming in from the north for a while, bringing frequent showers to the north of the UK whilst pressure rises further south to maintain the too dry set up.

There will be a consequent difference in temperatures. Southern UK could get quite warm by day but by night there is still scope for brief ground frost especially but not exclusively in northern Britain. .

Monday 9 May 2011 to Sunday 15 May 2011

From southwesterly to northwesterly

On Sunday evening the last remnant of the humid, thundery Spanish Plume is leaving Scotland en route to the Faroe Islands.

That leaves all of the UK in fresher air which this week will bring sunshine and showers. There is also a spiral of rain wrapped around the large low pressure area to our west which will bring in rain proper to Northern Ireland on Tuesday.

A breezy start to the week and that wind will swing from southwesterly to northwesterly by next weekend. Showers will therefore be most frequent in Northern Ireland, western Scotland and northwest England.

Southeast England may reach the low twenties but otherwise daytime temperatures will be high teens falling to mid-teens Celsius.

Monday 16 May 2011 to Sunday 22 May 2011

Pressure builds in the south

The week should start in the northwesterly winds, with the focus of showery conditions in the northwest, interspersed with periods of sunshine that should become more commonplace further southeast.

Temperatures are expected to be near-normal to start the week, before rising a little above average, as conditions exhibit a trend towards longer spells of warm and dry weather, with rising pressure towards the end of the week, particularly in the south and east of the UK.

Note the continued lack of rain in southeast England.

Monday 23 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011

More thunderstorms?

Current thoughts are that continental Europe, under a rising dome of high pressure will export thunderstorms to southern England now and again.

The changed wind direction to southwesterly allows Atlantic showers too in southern England and Wales. Ocean depressions bring rain or showers to northern Britain and Northern Ireland and the overall result is near average rainfall in the north and above average in the south!

Consequential temperatures will recover generally to around average but could be well above average in northeast England and northeast Scotland. The warmest will also likely be the sunniest :-)

Next week

If this pattern continues, it'll be a bit of warm summer in southern Britain with occasional imported thunder and relativley normal sunhine and showers summer for most of the UK

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

This looks a bit more promising

We start this period with substantial rain destined for western Scotland and the Polar Front toying with the UK: That is the line that separates summer from spring. In the second week, an area of high pressure looks like building and drifting across us which leaves the end of the period with an open door to "unsettled" weather again.

Monday 16 May 2011 to Sunday 22 May 2011

Fair Isle, Faeroes, Southeast Iceland: Cyclonic

Rather like last week, the rain-bearing Polar Front is intimately involved with the Scottish Highlands. A proper low pressure hole, currently in Canada, approaches the north of Scotland by Wednesday and heads east to Norway by Friday.

The consequence is rain in northern UK but little in the south. A windy midweek, especially in Scotland but a sometimes breezy yet warmer than average southern Britain.

Monday 23 May 2011 to Sunday 29 May 2011

The week of the moving anticyclone

By this time the north of the UK, in particular the northwestern hills will be thoroughly soaked so the onset of dry and warm weather will probably be welcome. For the rest, opinions will differ.

Anyway, this week looks warmer than average and than the week preceding. Drier than normal for all but western Scotland (the most likely start of the week), and above averagely sunny.

The confidence for this scenario is moderate to high.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 12 June 2011

A brief easterly?

The logic of a small anticyclone drifting across us from south to north is that we end up with an easterly around the bottom end, over northern Britain. This week, pressure continues to fall in the south, maybe suggesting French showers or Atlantic rain here.

Model output points to average temperatures in eastern Scotland and above average elsewhere.It also suggests rain above average in northeast and southwest England. Sunshine is forecast to be above average in the north and east of Scotland, and average elsewhere.

Next week

Although June has been known to be "busting out all over", that was mainly in the late 19th century or occasionally in the 20th century. More usually it has promise - the longest day and midsummer's day for example - but it often disappoints.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Summer Sun]

Summary

May leaves its mark but June looks more settled

May so far has seen a split between the northwest and the southeast.

Parts of western Scotland have seen well over their monthly rainfall averages, compared to well under in parts of southern and eastern England.

The first part of the period looks set to repeat this pattern with a number of low pressure systems bringing strong winds and rain to the north and west, but with much of the rainfall struggling to make its way to the southeast.

Towards the end of the period it's looking warmer and rather more settled for everyone but without a great deal of that much-needed rain in sight!

Monday 23 May 2011 to Sunday 29 May 2011

A dramatic start to the week

A deep low pressure system tracking across the north of the UK will bring winds that will be unusually strong for this time of year.

It will settle down a little on Tuesday and Wednesday across England and Wales with high pressure briefly trying to assert itself from the south, bringing warm weather for a time. However, it will stay rather unsettled across Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Further depressions will move in from the Atlantic through the rest of the week.

This rather unsettled picture will bring rain to the north and west, but only small amounts of rain will reach the southeast. The best chance of any rain here will be on Friday.

It will feel rather cool in the northwest but normal or warm at times in the southeast.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011

A tale of two halves

The rather unsettled weather will continue into the beginning of next week but high pressure to the south of the UK will once again make inroads into southern counties.

This will lead to a warming trend as well as a fairly dry outlook here, but further north and west there's more wet, windy and cool weather in prospect.

Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011

Sunshine in store

Warm, sunny weather looks likely to take hold across the UK for the middle of June. Perhaps this will be rather welcome in the north and west but for anyone hoping for rain, the totals look likely to be around or below the amounts we would normally expect at this time of year.

Next week

Will the end of June bring some good news for farmers and gardeners or will the sun-seekers be celebrating....?

http://news.bbc.co.u...10&region=world

[Eugene]

It will feel rather cool in the northwest but normal or warm at times in the southeast.

Looks very cool everywhere by thursday with a very cool northwesterly wind but yes the best of the warmth will be in the far southeast as it always is this time of year, looks like that ridge of HP tomorrow night could give some very chilly mins wednesday morning, local air frost in sheltered valley areas.

[Stuart]

Summary

June brings the Azores high

May has seen a story of two halves with plenty of rain for the northwest but very little for the southeast. This week will start unsettled and those of you hoping for some rain should make the most of it because it's not going to last for long. High pressure is starting to take charge from midweek and it's not going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011

Turning more settled

It's an unsettled start to the week with rain and showers for Monday and Tuesday. For those parts of England needing to see some rain, the best chance will be Monday with most areas seeing some outbreaks but with the biggest totals hitting the midlands and the West country.

By the middle of the week the north will be windy and still rather wet but the southeast will start to see drier, brighter weather taking charge as the Azores high starts to build from the south. This more settled weather will take hold across the rest of the UK by the end of the week, with many areas looking rather warm.

Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 12 June 2011

High pressure make itself at home

The high pressue is making itself at home through the second week of June. This is going to bring drier than average weather for all but the far north, where it will also tend to be cloudier and cooler at times. Warm and sunny weather is looking likely to keep its grip elsewhere.

Monday 13 June 2011 to Sunday 26 June 2011

High pressure not going anywhere

The middle of June brings more good news for the sun-seekers amongst you as the high pressure is going to remain in charge. That means just about everyone has dry, warm and sunny weather in store with that much-needed rain nowhere in sight.

Next week

What will the start of July bring? Will there be good news for farmers and gardeners on the horizon? Or will we be stocking up on suncream?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Forecast offers no comfort for eastern growers

Whilst a stream of moisture-laden southwesterlies brought above average rainfall to Scotland and Northern Ireland through May, England and Wales were below par, not for the first time this year. This monthly outlook will do nothing to assuage the sense of grievance in all parts.

Spring rainfall totals in parts of eastern England have fallen short of those recorded in 1976 and cereal farmers are already looking at a 10% reduction in yields. If there is no significant rain soon, 25-30% could be nearer the mark. Crop failure for some is a real possibility.

By contrast, parts of Scotland have recorded in excess of 460mm of rain in an exceptionally wet May: 150 times the rainfall of Kent and some three times above seasonal expectations.

Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 12 June 2011

Cool, cloudy and wet start for western Britain

Low pressure dominates the north and west of the British Isles to start the week. Having arrived over the weekend, it then takes much of the week to quit the scene. The south and east of England will see a little rain on Monday but that may be it for any meaningful, widespread rain.

Western parts of the British Isles will see some patchy rain or showers in the early part of Tuesday and then a copious supply of showers through midweek. By this time, northern Scotland will again with showers more widespread as the rain clears towards the end of the week.

Temperatures will be at or just below par for June with very little chance of frost in many areas.

Monday 13 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011

Low pressure dominates again

Low pressure will again be close by at the start of the week, giving many northern and western parts of the British Isles an unsettled look to the week. Rain or showers will push as far south as northwest England. Further south and east than this and any form of precipitation will be sporadic and do little to alleviate any shortages.

The south and east of England will again be the driest and sunniest areas of the British Isles. This pattern will be reinforced by the growth of a weak ridge of high pressure towards the weekend.

After a cool start and some chilly night, temperatures will recover to be at or slightly above the norm.

Monday 20 June 2011 to Sunday 3 July 2011

Continuation of the northwest/southeast split

There are indications that the northwest/southeast split will continue into the early part of July.Sunniest and driest spells of weather wil again dominate in southern and eastern England whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland will be both cooler and wetter. Is it any comfort in these areas that rainfall should only be 'average'?

Next week

Check the July prospects for your holiday plans or sporting events here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer postponed until July?

Those with a memory of 1976 will recall how the breaking of that year's drought coincided with the appointment of a 'Minister for Drought'. The past week's rainfall won't have made up the spring deficit in many parts of England and Wales, but does happen to coincide with the official declaration of drought in several areas.

At the time of writing, a number of spots across England and Wales are experiencing more rainfall in hours than they received in the March to May period: not difficult when as little as 4mm was recorded. By complete contrast, over 400mm fell in parts of Scotland and there are further prolonged spells of wet, and occasionally, windy weather to come as soon as the forthcoming week.

The general tenor of the next 30 days is to see a continuation of the cool, unsettled theme across many areas of the British Isles over the next fortnight with a return to somewhat drier and warmer weather by early July, but perhaps only over the south of England and Wales.

Monday 13 June 2011 to Sunday 19 June 2011

Low pressure keeps summer at bay in all areas

The week starts with a vigorous low close to northeast Scotland. Up to 40mm of rain and gusts to 60mph could affect the region into the early part of Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday will be drier affairs elsewhere, with temperatures tip-toeing into the low 20Cs in East Anglia and southeast England.

A second low will loom onto the horizon to the west of the British Isles come Wednesday, throwing light rain into western Britain and Northern Ireland during the day. Eastern areas will be drier with some sunny spells. Temperatures will have fallen back to the high teens.

The week will finish with a showery Thursday and a wet day on Friday.

Monday 20 June 2011 to Sunday 26 June 2011

Wimbledon starts: new weather, please?

There's little sign of a spell of warm, sunny weather to take the nation through one of the premier, sporting events of the summer. Low pressure will again lie close by to the British Isles, with the wettest and windiest spells of weather to be found across the north and west.

Temperatures will not warrant postcards home, falling below par in southern England, south Wales, southwest Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Sunshine amounts will suffer as unseasonable, wetter spells take precedence across southwest Britain and the Midlands.

Monday 27 June 2011 to Sunday 10 July 2011

High pressure returns to southern Briatin

High pressure should make a welcome return to the British Isles, especially in southern parts. Whilst this may help boost sunshine amounts, it may do little for temperatures, which could, again, disappoint in many areas.

Wetter areas may again be found across the north and west of the British Isles.

Next week

What are the prospects for your favoured sport or event? Check the prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

Edited June 13, 2011 by Stuart

[Bale]

Summary

June brings the Azores high

May has seen a story of two halves with plenty of rain for the northwest but very little for the southeast. This week will start unsettled and those of you hoping for some rain should make the most of it because it's not going to last for long. High pressure is starting to take charge from midweek and it's not going anywhere for the foreseeable future.

Monday 30 May 2011 to Sunday 5 June 2011

Turning more settled

It's an unsettled start to the week with rain and showers for Monday and Tuesday. For those parts of England needing to see some rain, the best chance will be Monday with most areas seeing some outbreaks but with the biggest totals hitting the midlands and the West country.

By the middle of the week the north will be windy and still rather wet but the southeast will start to see drier, brighter weather taking charge as the Azores high starts to build from the south. This more settled weather will take hold across the rest of the UK by the end of the week, with many areas looking rather warm.

Monday 6 June 2011 to Sunday 12 June 2011

High pressure make itself at home

The high pressue is making itself at home through the second week of June. This is going to bring drier than average weather for all but the far north, where it will also tend to be cloudier and cooler at times. Warm and sunny weather is looking likely to keep its grip elsewhere.

Monday 13 June 2011 to Sunday 26 June 2011

High pressure not going anywhere

The middle of June brings more good news for the sun-seekers amongst you as the high pressure is going to remain in charge. That means just about everyone has dry, warm and sunny weather in store with that much-needed rain nowhere in sight.

Next week

What will the start of July bring? Will there be good news for farmers and gardeners on the horizon? Or will we be stocking up on suncream?

http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Little sign of prolonged spell of summery weather

Much has been made in recent weeks of the lack of rainfall across eastern England. Other parts of England are not far behind. Preliminary figures for the first half of June do little to allay the fears of farmers and growers. Whilst some parts of southern England are close to their average monthly rainfall already, some in the north and east of England have largely missed out yet again. There has been little or no deficit in other parts of the British Isles: for some, quite the reverse!

Whilst on the subject of shortage of rain, it's perhaps worth pointing out that the need to irrigate crops is not just a problem in eastern England. Farmers as far west as Shropshire have been watering cereals for some time, at significant cost. I also noted, on BBC Radio 4's Farming Today This Week, that the development of drought resistant cereals takes in excess of ten years. Best we check the forecast to see if nature can provide a more economical and reliable source of water, at least over the next month or so.

Monday 20 June 2011 to Sunday 26 June 2011

Cool and unsettled trend continues until Friday

Another low pressure will approach the southwest of the British Isles on Monday, throwing fronts across southern parts. Wimbledon's Centre Court roof will see action at some point during the afternoon.

Through the middle of the week, the low will track northeastwards to lie over the North Sea. Wet and, at times, windy weather will affect many parts, either in the form of continuous rain or heavy and, potentially thundery showers.

By Friday, a ridge of high pressure and then a high itself will drift across many areas, offering a respite from the unseasonable weather, which may last into the weekend.

Given all of the above, it will come as little surprise to suggest that rainfall totals will be above average for many and well above average in both southern Scotland and the north of England. Temperatures will struggle to reach par, except in the southeast once the high begins to dominate.

Monday 27 June 2011 to Sunday 3 July 2011

Further spell of nothwest/southeast split weather

Regular readers of this item will have become all too familiar with the marked differentiation in weather types across the British Isles. The dominance of high pressure over the continent has forced low pressures and their attendant fronts to take the bulk of their rain towards the north and west of Scotland and Northern Ireland. As has already been noted, southeast Britain has been deprived of its share of rain.

This week sees a continuation of the trend. Westerly winds will tend to prevail with, as a consequence, the bulk of the rain falling in the north and west. This will suppress temperatures here. The driest and brightest of the weather will be found in the south and east. Some blurring of the theme will occur on occasions, so no area should expect a washout.

Monday 4 July 2011 to Sunday 17 July 2011

Changeable pattern looks favourite into mid-July

The favoured pressure pattern should see lows over Scandinavia with highs towards the Azores. Atlantic weather systems will push eastwards across the British Isles, producing near average rainfall amounts in most areas with little sign of temperatures breaking par.

Next week

Check the weather for your favoured sport, show or fete here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Heatwave? What heatwave?

It's a hot start to the period but there is a rapid return to the norm by the first Wednesday.

It isn't possible to forecast a heatwave more than seven days in advance. But the pressure pattern conducive to summer heatwaves is forecastable much further in advance. Bearing that in mind, over the next four weeks we see such a pressure pattern more than once, so it's fair to say that another heatwave is possible.

Monday 27 June 2011 to Sunday 3 July 2011

Hottest day of the year - soon gone

The heatwave in England on Monday will bring in cloud and thundery showers overnight and on Tuesday, finally leaving eastern England by Wednesday. From that point, England will join Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland in a westerly breeze, sunny intervals, temperatures between 16 and 21C and a few showers. By the weekend, pressure will have risen again causing Atlantic fronts to pile up just west of Ireland. So what about the weekend? Those piled-up fronts seem likely to cross the UK bringing cloud and rain, although not much in the warmer southeast.

Monday 4 July 2011 to Sunday 10 July 2011

Westerlies prevail

Although the south of the UK will have a tendency to bask in warm and settled weather, for most, it will be back to the familiar scenario of a westerly breeze with "sunshine and showers or longer spells of rain". No significant departures from the July averages are likely.

Monday 11 July 2011 to Sunday 24 July 2011

Northwest southeast difference

In summer the jetstream should encourage high pressure over us rather than low pressure and it appears that it will try just that during these two weeks. This might set up a heatwave but even if it doesn't it looks like the southeast of the UK will enjoy warm and often sunny weather, and the northwest cloudier, cooler and wetter conditions.

Next week

We're into school summer holidays so let's wish for outdoor weather

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Brief taste of summer?

Rather changeable weather looks set to predominate throughout much of July, though it could well turn out to be another distinctly average month for many areas.

Monday 4 July 2011 to Sunday 10 July 2011

Warm and dry start. Cool and showery finish.

It will be warm and largely sunny across large parts of the United Kingdom on Monday. For eastern areas this will be the case on Tuesday too, but by then a band of rain will bring a change to cooler and fresher conditions into the west, with this spreading to all areas overnight.

Low pressure will then dominate the weather for the rest of the week, with showers for many areas, occasionally heavy and thundery, although southeast England may see fewer showers than other parts.

Monday 11 July 2011 to Sunday 17 July 2011

Changeable weather for many areas.

A mixed week lies ahead for this period, with winds blowing in off the Atlantic for the most part. This brings spells of rain or showers, interspersed with sunnier interludes.

Temperatures will probably be around average across the country, occasionally a little on the cool side in wetter and windier locations, but rising slightly above average in sheltered sunnier areas.

Monday 18 July 2011 to Sunday 31 July 2011

Still rather changeable, but will it warm up?

Winds look set to remain mainly westerly for much of the time, leading to a continuation of these variable conditions. However there is also an increased chance of seeing high pressure make a return, especially across more southern parts of the UK. This will allow temperatures to rise in these parts, with increased amounts of sunshine.

Next week

The calendar says July, so will we see a return to more settled summer like conditions?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer returns, but only briefly

After a particularly unsettled spell with some heavy thunderstorms, some may be relieved to know that the weather is turning drier - for a few days at least. While it will not be totally dry right across the country, any showers that we do see over the next few days are more likely to be light. In fact, with high pressure building across the UK, there should be some reasonably summery weather around at the start of this outlook period, with temperatures on the rise. That anticyclone doesn't maintain its grip for long however, and by the end of this week it looks as though it will turn unsettled once again. That pattern then looks set to stick around for a while, before high pressure starts to try and nudge back across the country from the south towards the end of the month. Does this mean that summer could come back for the start of August, at least for more southern parts of the UK? Confidence is relatively low for this right now, but if anywhere is more likely to see the benefits of rising pressure by then it is the southeastern half of the country.

Monday 11 July 2011 to Sunday 17 July 2011

High pressure, but not for long

Although there will still be some heavy downpours affecting parts of Scotland first thing on Monday morning, the anticyclone centred close to the Faeroe Islands is going to extend its influence southwards across the UK through the first half of this week. This means that dry weather - below-average rainfall - will predominate, although the sun is strong enough at this time of year to still be able to spark off a few showers during the day. The northern half of the country is more likely to see these, keeping rainfall amounts here fairly close to average for the time of year, but unlike recent days they will not be heavy. The far south or southeast is at risk of being grazed by the rain associated with a low pressure system tracking across France and into the Low Countries on Tuesday, but any showery rain associated with this is expected to be light; it may just mean that Tuesday is a cloudier day here. Otherwise sunshine amounts will be around average for July, perhaps a little sunnier than usual across Northern Ireland. As the high declines later on Thursday a weakening front will bring cloud and light rain to Northern Ireland. This front then reinvigorates on Friday to give showers over northern Britain, opening the gates for an unseasonable low to sweep in bringing wet and windy weather to many parts of the country this weekend. Temperatures will largely be around average this week; although England and Wales will have a warm day on Monday, and Wednesday and Thursday will see some warm conditions locally too.

Monday 18 July 2011 to Sunday 24 July 2011

Back to the unsettled theme

So low pressure will return to dominate the country's weather for next week. However, despite this unsettled outlook, rainfall, sunshine and temperatures look broadly average for July. Of course, the broadest brush can't paint local detail, and with any drier, brighter interludes it can easily become pleasantly warm with the strength of the sun at this time of year.

Monday 25 July 2011 to Sunday 7 August 2011

A north-south split - but where will the divide be

As hinted above, high pressure tries to make a return towards the beginning of August. Building from the south, it suggests that the more unsettled conditions will predominantly affect the northern half of the UK, while the south becomes brighter, drier and warmer. Confidence for this north-south split is low, especially for any dividing line between the two types of conditions... but a heatwave certainly doesn't look likely!

Next week

With school holidays continuing, let's hope that the high pressure continues to build northwards across the country!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer? What Summer?

Just about all of the UK's schools maybe on holiday now, but the synoptic charts at the weekend looked like those of an October half-term rather than that of the main summer break.

The Atlantic jetstream had yet again gone wandering south of the UK, instead of to the north of us as it should be. The strength and exact position of it helped to develop and keep low pressure on our shores.

The jet loses some of its strength through this week, but does that mean good news for those holidaying, or just wanting to enjoy a bit of summer sun?

Monday 18 July 2011 to Sunday 24 July 2011

Fewer showers, but staying cool

To begin the week we still have the same low pressure system, that dominated our weather over the weekend, firmly lodged in the North Sea. Its position there means that the strong and blustery winds will continue to have a north or north-westerly characteristic to them. For many this will keep temperatures generally at or below what they should be for the time of the year.

Rainbands wrapped around the low will also spiral back across the UK, but as the jetstream weakens and the low pressure slowly fills, these rainbands will turn more showery. The air will still be unstable enough though for some of the showers to be thundery, but between them some brighter skies are expected.

Midweek brings the brief risk of an Atlantic frontal system just clipping southwest England, but essentially for the second half of the week showers should become fewer in number as pressure slowly builds from the southwest.

By the weekend, many in the south and west will be predominantly dry, but to the north and east some showers will continue. The general northwesterly flow will keep temperatures a little suppressed.

Monday 25 July 2011 to Sunday 31 July 2011

Promising signs?

As July bows out, the hope would be for it to leave us with a little something better to remember it by.

For many southern and western areas, that could well be the case as pressure continues to build slowly to the southwest of the UK. Temperatures here will return to values near to what they should be for the time of the year, under fairly sunny skies, and for some in the south conditions could be described as warm at times.

However, blazing sunshine still seems unlikely, and it would be foolhardy of me to promise completely dry conditions. At the moment it still looks like the build in pressure will not be strong or dominant enough for that. Pressure in the northern North Sea still remains low enough to promote shower development across northern and eastern areas, with fewer sunny spells here, and for all the general windflow will be a west or northwesterly one. Neither of these brings substantially hot weather.

Monday 1 August 2011 to Sunday 14 August 2011

Promise dashed

The new month may start with high pressure and fine conditions still clinging on in the southwest of the UK, but there appear to signs that it will not last.

The charts show an increased possibility of the Atlantic jetstream coming back into play. The high pressure system will slowly ebb away and the cyclonic flow of low pressure systems return to the fore.

Current model output indicates that rainfall amounts will increase, even becoming above average in some locations, particularly in the north and west. Correspondingly, both sunshine amounts and temperature levels may well fall short of what many would want or expect in August.

Next week

Will the jetstream take a holiday of its own and rescue the end of the summer holidays for the Scottish schools?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Summer - trying hard but could do better!

Warmer, drier weather continues to try to establish itself over the next few weeks, and with some success. However, in its conflict with the recent unseasonal, autumnal conditions the summer may well win a few battles, but not necessarily the war.

Monday 25 July 2011 to Sunday 31 July 2011

Dry and warm, but perhaps a bit cloudy

Low pressure in the North Sea will ease away to the east as pressure builds from the west during the week, bringing more settled conditions to the UK.

As this high builds from the Azores it will trap moist Atlantic air beneath it, meaning that we are likely to see more cloud than we might hope for at the end of July.

In northern and western parts this cloud may be thick enough to produce the odd patch of drizzle, particularly later in the week. Central and eastern parts will see the best of the sunshine throughout the week, though it should feel warm everywhere.

Monday 1 August 2011 to Sunday 7 August 2011

Summer is still trying to break through

High pressure remains in force across England and Wales with settled, fair and warm conditions continuing for most. The feed of moist air from the Atlantic will continue to mean cloudy conditions for some though.

Towards the end of the week across Scotland, Northern Ireland and perhaps the far northwest of England a low pressure system will battle for supremacy with the established high pressure system. This low pressure system looks set to win out in the end, bringing unsettled, showery conditions to northern parts.

Monday 8 August 2011 to Sunday 21 August 2011

In summary, not very summery

As we move further into August the settled, high pressure system over the south appears to admit defeat, allowing cyclonic conditions to be established across the majority of the UK.

This means that at the moment it looks as though the middle of August could well be cooler, cloudier and wetter than we may wish it to be with temperatures pegged down a little below average for the time of year.

Next week

Will we be able to salvage something of the summer in the last week of August?

http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

[Summer Sun]

Published at 10:00, 1 August

(Next update at 10:00, 8 August)

Written by Jay Wynne

Summary

Summer's back, but for how long?

There will be some strong sunshine and high humidity for a short while, with hot days and warm nights to come. This is likely to spark off some thundery downpours. Towards the end of this week an Atlantic low introduces fresher air and more changeable conditions.

Monday 1 August 2011 to Sunday 7 August 2011

Hot and thundery at first, fresher later

Low pressure to the west of Scotland will draw some very warm and humid air up across much of the UK and with that comes some rain. On Monday the rain shouldn't be too heavy and is most likely to affect northern and western parts of the UK while much of the Midlands and Southeast England will stay dry with some sunshine and rising humidity. Monday night will be quite warm and a bit uncomfortable for many, and at the same time the rain will be turning heavier and thundery in places. Tuesday and Wednesday see temperatures widely into the mid to high twenties (warm nights too) and there will be some sunshine but also some thundery downpours. At this stage, southern counties of England and Northern Ireland look much drier than elsewhere. By Thursday, the Atlantic influence begins to take hold. A band of rain will cross the UK with fresher conditions moving in behind, so that by Friday, temperatures will be much closer to normal. It looks like a pleasant end to the week for most with some sunshine, just the odd shower and a much better night for sleeping. A changeable weekend follows, with temperatures near or even a bit below normal.

Monday 8 August 2011 to Sunday 14 August 2011

Changeable

Westerly winds will dominate this period. There should be some sunshine for most places but not all day for everyone. The south and east of the UK will probably see the best of the sunshine while the north and west are most likely to see some showers or more persistent rain, with the winds picking up at times. It may start off quite warm but generally temperatures will be close to the average, so still some pleasant conditions, especially in the south and east.

Monday 15 August 2011 to Sunday 28 August 2011

Unsettled

There is a strong signal for cyclonic conditions to be the driving force behind the weather. We can expect to see outbreaks of rain, some drier interludes and near normal temperatures. The best of the dry and bright weather is likely to be in the south and east of the UK with most of the rain in the north and west, where it may be windy at times.

Next week

Will it warm up again in September?

[Stuart]

Summary

August unlikely to sparkle after routine July

July set few records and will not live long in the memory. It was about a degree Celsius cooler in all parts of the British Isles than one might expect, probably due to the pre-dominance of northeasterly winds. The month was also marked by some cool nights.

The year overall has been a difficult one for gardeners and farmers. The spring months were unseasonably dry to the point where a drought was declared in parts of eastern England. Whilst June and July's rainfall may have salvaged something of the feared loss of yield, rain at this time of year only inhibits the progress of the harvest.

Holidaymakers will also be underwhelmed by the long range forecast for the rest of August. The season, thus far, has offered fleeting tastes of temperatures close to or just above 30C. For the most part, they have failed to reach the heights or consistency offered by a glorious Easter.

Monday 8 August 2011 to Sunday 14 August 2011

Hints of autumn?

Summer flooding is by no means unheard of. As parts of northeast England and eastern Scotland mop up after a weekend of heavy rain, so other areas will have failed to escape the attentions of some thundery downpours. The coming week offers the prospect of more significant rain across Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England. Met Office warnings are already in force.

Whilst Monday sees rain spreading away from Scotland to all but the far south of England, at least it will have the good grace to ease as it completes its journey. Cool, cloudy and breezy weather will follow in its wake.

Countrywide, Tuesday promises to be a fairer day. Wednesday, however, appears to warrant the Met Office's alerts for heavy rain across the north of the British Isles. Thursday offers similar prospects with the south and East Anglia most likely to keep a sense of summer about proceedings. By Friday, even the south coast may see some outbreaks of rain.

Monday 15 August 2011 to Sunday 21 August 2011

No signs of high pressure to lift the summer blues

A glimpse of seasonal weather in southeastern Britain will be elbowed aside to finish off a disappointing week. Any sunshine in southern areas will lift temperatures to the low 20C mark to offer a reminder that it is August.

The middle of the month will be marked by further spells of wet and, at times, windy weather across the northwest of the British Isles. The greatest chance of sunnier and warmer conditions will be found across East Anglia, the south and the Channel Islands.

Monday 22 August 2011 to Sunday 4 September 2011

Change the month but no change in the weather

As August concludes so the established theme continues. There are few if any signs of a prolonged warm, dry spell of weather in any one part of the British Isles. Scotland and Northern Ireland may experience above average rainfall as fronts move in from the Atlantic. Sunshine amounts and temperatures will continue to disappoint in these areas.

Even further south and east, warm, dry weather will be interrupted by showers or longer spells of rain.

Next week

What are the prospects for your show or event? Check the weather prospects here.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Hopes fading for late-summer heatwave

The summer so far has flattered to deceive. A few tantalising days of heat have merely teased us before the rain clouds have returned.

Frustration for holidaymakers and harvesters, but at least the springtime worries over impending drought have eased.

The weather charts for the next few weeks look like offering more of the same. Summer 2011 will prove to have been neither one thing nor the other: neither wet nor dry.

Monday 15 August 2011 to Sunday 21 August 2011

A fine few days but more rain later

As so often this summer, another area of low pressure will languidly drift across the UK early in the week. Although there won't be all that much rain, it will be rather cloudy and damp for a time; the rain last to clear the southeast of England.

Around midweek a ridge of high pressure will drift eastwards, ensuring that most places will have a fine couple of days. Some pleasantly warm sunshine by day, but under clear skies, the nights will be quite cool.

By the weekend, the next set of Atlantic weather fronts will bring more rain from the west, accompanied by some blustery winds. So perhaps a few interruptions to the final Test at the Oval.

Monday 22 August 2011 to Sunday 28 August 2011

Unremarkable August weather

With westerly winds set to bring a regular suppy of weather fronts across the UK, we can all expect some rain at times.

Typically the north and west of the British Isles will catch most of the rain, while the southeast is somewhat sunnier and warmer at times, especially during any brief ridges of high pressure.

So not a complete wash-out, and this healthy mixture of sun and rain should keep harvesters and holidaymakers reasonably content.

Monday 29 August 2011 to Sunday 11 September 2011

September takes over in similar vein

Of course there is no meteorological reason why a change in month should suddenly bring a change in weather. Indeed, current indications are that early September will continue to provide a predominance of westerly winds.

So neither rain nor sunshine are expected to stray far from the norm. However as the nights get longer, they will of course get chillier. Some early Autumn frosts cannot be ruled out, especially across northern areas of the UK.

Next week

Is there an unexpected late summer surprise just over the horizon?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Any summer left?

As August ends as underwhelmingly as it started, our attention turns to September and the chance of something a little more settled.

Monday 22 August 2011 to Sunday 28 August 2011

A mixed picture for the end of August

The first day of the working week will be bright and mostly dry with some sunny spells, although a few showers will appear across parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Thereafter it all starts to change. Wet weather will spread from the south on Tuesday across much of England and Wales, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will have a brighter day.

The rest of the week will bring showers and longer spells of rain at times to just about everyone.

The weekend may see some more settled weather pushing up from the south, leading to the rain and showers becoming increasingly confined to the north.

Monday 29 August 2011 to Sunday 4 September 2011

Sunshine for some to start September

As August comes to a close the weather might well take a turn for southern parts of the UK in particular.

High pressure will try to build from the south, bringing some drier and settled weather here. This is likely to see temperatures at times becoming warmer than average during the day but turning rather cool at night - a pattern that often leads to mist and fog forming and lingering well into the morning.

Low pressure dominating the north will deliver a different and rather unsettled picture here. Breezy at times with temperatures around average or on the cooler side.

Monday 5 September 2011 to Sunday 18 September 2011

Battle ground continues

The middle of September will see the jostling of high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north but the difficulty will be predicting which is going to make greater inroads.

At the moment it looks like the drier, warmer and more settled weather will persist over the south and east but the north and west can expect wetter, cooler and breezier conditions.

Next week

Will high pressure continue to fight it's corner or will the westerlies win?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Summer Sun]

Published at 10:00, 29 August

(Next update at 10:00, 5 September)

Written by Philip Avery

Summary

The weather takes a short holiday - not for long.

A welcome spell of settled weather to start this outlook period but then a series of Atlantic lows will bring more of a changeable feel to western and northern parts.

Monday 29 August 2011 to Sunday 4 September 2011

Let's calm things down a bit...

After a wild end to the weekend for northern Scotland, conditions should settle down somewhat with a ridge of high pressure finally taking hold over the whole country. While it promises to be mainly dry, sunshine is likely to be in short supply for much of the week. The best of any cloud breaks are likely to be in southeast Scotland, the southwest peninsula and along the south coast of England. By the end of Friday though, what once was tropical cyclone Irene - now just an area of low pressure - comes to pay us a visit, bringing with it more wet and windy weather for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Further south, by contrast, we end on a warm and bright note, setting up for a classic northwest-southeast split to begin the coming week.

Monday 5 September 2011 to Sunday 11 September 2011

Wet and windy for some.

And so the week starts with the split. Northwest England, Northern Ireland and much of Scotland will see the bulk of the wetter and windier weather this week. Temperatures here look set to be average at best as a series of low pressure systems pass over the area - perhaps the odd drier and brighter break between systems but the next one never too far behind. Winds may even approach gale force at times in exposed areas. Across the southeastern half of the UK, however, things look much more settled, though still likely to be a little cloudy at time. Temperatures could even be just a little higher than average in the south east at times during the week.

Monday 12 September 2011 to Sunday 25 September 2011

Could it be autumn?

The theme of low pressure systems seperated by a few drier and brighter spells seems likely to continue through towards the end of September. It appears that northern and western areas are to bear the brunt of the unsettled weather, though the detail of quite how far north or south the wet / dry boundary will fall is still to be fleshed out.

Next week

After what seems like many weeks of autumnal weather in the summer, might we see some summer weather as we move into the autumn? Surely that can't be it, can it?

http://news.bbc.co.u.../forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Summary

Autumn has arrived

After a rather dull August - only 11 Augusts in the last 100 years saw less sunshine - you could be forgiven for hoping that September might bring a last taste of summer. However, the weather has other ideas as we head into a rather unsettled week.

Towards the second half of the month high pressure looks set to build across the south, bringing some more setted conditions here as the north keeps the wet and windy weather.

Monday 5 September 2011 to Sunday 11 September 2011

Wet and windy weather looming

This week will really feel like autumn as wet and windy weather takes hold. The week kicks off with blustery showers, sometimes turning thundery, before more persistent rain moves in on Monday night.

This rain band will clear through on Tuesday but simply pave the way for more strong winds and showers for Wednesday and Thursday. Further rain on Friday will set the scene for an unsettled weekend.

It’s not all doom and gloom though because there will be some drier, brighter spells including much of Wednesday in the south east of the UK and perhaps Friday in the north east.

Monday 12 September 2011 to Sunday 18 September 2011

Turning drier for some

By mid-September the jet stream continues to bring unsettled weather, particularly across the north and west of the UK, where more wet, windy and cool weather is likely to be on the cards.

The south and east should start to find some drier and brighter weather trying to take hold. With winds tending to ease, it may even start to feel rather warm at times in the south east.

Monday 19 September 2011 to Sunday 2 October 2011

A tale of two halves

Our weather split continues as we head towards the end of September. High pressure will continue building to the south which may see some more dry, bright and perhaps warm weather at times. This weather set-up is also likely to bring some cold nights and perhaps rural frosts.

For the north it will be a different picture with unsettled weather reluctant to release its grip - so more windy, wet and cool conditions.

Next week

Any chance of an Indian Summer...?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Summer Sun]

Published at 11:00, 12 September

Next update at 11:00, 19 September

Summary

Turbulent times as the equinox arrives

This time of year we can sometimes see ex-hurricanes getting caught up in our weather systems and this is exactly how we start the week. Will there be more in store?

As well as wind and rain we see some quieter spells and as we head further into the autumn, passing the autumnal equinox on the 23rd September, we may start to see the first frosts.

Monday 12 September 2011 to Sunday 18 September 2011

A weather sandwich

The week kicks off with a bang as the remnants of Hurricane Katia, now a post-tropical depression, brings heavy rain and gale force winds to parts of the UK. The last former hurricane to hit the UK was Hurricane Bill in 2009.

This depression is slow to move away, leading to another very windy day on Tuesday and more rain for Scotland. A slightly quieter picture for Wednesday and Thursday with lighter winds and mostly dry weather, away from the northwest. On the flip side it will feel colder at night and we may see some patchy mist and fog forming.

Friday will bring wet and breezy weather from the southwest and this will set the theme for an unsettled weekend. Despite this the days will feel quite warm at times, particularly in the southeast.

Monday 19 September 2011 to Sunday 25 September 2011

A weather split

During this week we will start to see a bit of a split developing in the weather. Low pressure will dominate across the northwest of the UK, whereas more settled weather will take hold of the southeast. This means the northwest will feel very autumnal and can expect to see wet and windy weather but the southeast should see some drier and brighter spells.

The only spanner in the works could be the remains of further ex-tropical weather systems getting caught up at our latitudes, which, as we're seeing this week, can be a feature of the weather at this time of year.

Monday 26 September 2011 to Sunday 9 October 2011

The first frost?

As we head into October and our nights have become longer than our days, we will probably start seeing our first frosts in some sheltlered, inland spots.

Whilst rainfall and sunshine amounts are likely to be about normal for this time of year for most places, it does look as though western Scotland will see more rainfall than usual with eastern Scotland likely to see a little more sunshine. The southwest of England on the other hand may be in for a rather cloudy couple of weeks.

Next week

How will mid-October fare? Will we see more wind and rain or is an Indian summer on the cards?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209

[Stuart]

Published at 11:00, 19 September

Next update at 11:00, 26 September

Summary

Any chance of a late summer revival?

Autumn started with some very strong winds across most parts of the UK as well as some heavy rain and blustery showers.

The weekend just gone continued on the unsettled theme with a noticeable breeze and some heavy showers, and by night it turned quite chilly with a bit of fog forming.

All of this is fairly typical autumnal weather, but already I hear people wondering whether or not we'll see an 'Indian Summer'. Technically speaking, an 'Indian Summer' is a spell of notably warm, dry, quite sunny weather which occurs after the first killing frost of the season, usually in October. Read on to find out the current thinking on early October's weather...

Monday 19 September 2011 to Sunday 25 September 2011

Unsettled at first, settling down later

Low pressure systems to the northwest of the UK and high pressure to the southwest will maintain a west to southwesterly airflow across all parts.

The northwest of the UK will bear the brunt of the strong winds and rain this week, although just about everywhere will see some rain during Monday and Tuesday as fronts move in from the west and then move southwards.

The middle and latter part of the week should see pressure building over the southern half of the UK so things ought to settle down here. However, it may well be quite cloudy. At the same time, in the northwest of the UK it looks wet and windy on Wednesday, showery on Thursday, and wet and windy again to end the week.

Rainfall amounts in the northwest will probably exceed expectations, while falling below in the southeast and east, where temperatures should be quite respectable. While there will be some sunshine this week, the best we can hope for is something approaching average; but not in the northwest of the UK - here it will be limited.

Monday 26 September 2011 to Sunday 2 October 2011

Changeable

The general set-up remains the same - low pressure to the northwest, high pressure to the southwest and a resultant west to northwesterly flow.

This will produce some spells of rain and showers, with some dry and bright spells in between. Once again it will be the north of the UK that sees the strongest winds and most of the rain; the east of England drier than you might expect.

Temperatures look around normal for the time of year - about 11 or 12C in Stornoway and 17 or 18C in London. They may even nudge a little bit higher in the southeast as there should be some good spells of sunshine here.

Monday 3 October 2011 to Sunday 16 October 2011

Pressure rising...hopefully

High pressure is likely to be the dominant force in this period. However, our confidence is relatively low in this aspect and therefore quite low for other details.

If things do evolve in this way and high pressure dominates, then Atlantic fronts should be steered away from our shores and the weather should be much more settled. This sort of set-up could well lead to some cold and potentially frosty nights.

Temperatures will probably be near normal for Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England and Wales it will be cold, even with some sunshine by day. Night-time temperatures will fall especially low here.

So, we'll probably get a good frost, and it may well be quite settled but daytime temperatures look a bit below par so at the moment an 'Indian Summer' looks unlikely. However there are still 2 more weeks left in October.

Next week

Will high pressure stay and temperatures rise?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/10209