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[skifreak]

Indeed, for long spells of 2001 the A9 between Aviemore and Inveness was banked up with snow at the sides. After an unusually dry but cold yet windy January the following 3months of Feb, March and April delivered a classic seasson for Scottish Snowsports.

For those that go on about 2001 being mild and snowless, I love to dig out this:

The Traverse, Coire Cas, CairnGorm Mountain - May 2001!

[Stuart]

Staying unsettled

The current spell of unsettled weather shows no immediate signs of abating with more wet and windy weather at times across the UK during the next few days. Temperatures will fluctuate, but for most of the time they are likely to be average or mild for December. There is now a hint of colder conditions on Saturday before it turns milder again. Computer models are also suggesting the possibility of some colder air crossing the UK next Tuesday and with a fair amount of precipitation mixed in there is the chance of a short spell of snow in central or northern areas.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Cooler and showery for a time

The weather is set to remain unsettled for much of the next week with further spells of rain, although during Friday and into the weekend colder conditions are expected with the possibility of some wintry showers over higher ground. Milder and wet conditions are likely to return on Sunday as a warm sector crosses the UK before a colder packet of air brings another temporary cool down early next week. There are now signs of a pattern change in the run up to Christmas as the conveyor belt of low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic begins to slow down. This could allow colder air from the north to move down across the UK close to Christmas.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[VillagePlank]

I think that TWO have been pretty OK this year; not too much ramping, and a reasonable start to their winter forecast.

[Stuart]

A green Xmas likely

There’s still quite a long time in weather terms before Christmas but we’re now confident that there is enough agreement between the computer forecasting models to be able to call a relatively mild and generally snow free Christmas for the UK. After this weekend high pressure looks set to become established over the near continent for some time leading to a mild south westerly flow over the UK. This should also lead to relatively mild and dry conditions with little new snow for the

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Frosty.]

Over on two they have reduced the xmas snow risk down to 15% for the north and 10% for the south. With High Pressure (Bartlett) being over the near continent and a very mild south westerly airflow coming up across the uk, dry for most although the far north west will be more unsettled with patchy rain or showers. They have been utterly dreadful on two with promises of cold Northerlies for the second half of December proving to be utter tripe. If it now pans out as they suggest it will be the most boring christmas weather you could imagine, cloudy, mild and dry= yuck.

Edited December 13, 2006 by Frosty039

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

To be fair though Frosty, i'm not sure how many expected the current atlantic domination to last this long.

Just remember that TWO, and other sites, are just providing their best projections...they dont make the weather (although that would be kind of cool)

[Stuart]

A nip in the air!

According to the UK Met Office this year is likely to be the warmest on record in the UK, and the remarkably warm autumn has certainly been a major contributor to this. The mild theme has continued into December and our temperatures tracker is showing this month currently to be about 3C warmer than the 1961-90 average. However, things are set to change during the next few days as high pressure build across the UK, with a packet of chilly air moving down from the north. This should bring a spell of mainly dry weather which will be a relief after the recent torrential rain which has affected much of the UK. It may also mean that frost will develop quite widely overnight, although as is always the case this will depend how much cloud develops. Overnight cloud acts as a blanket trapping in heat and reducing the chance of frost

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[thunderstrike]

Does anybody see any flaw's in this from Brian at two?

No. Once my winter forecast is issued that's it. Right or wrong. As it is my forecast is off to a brilliant start but there's a long way to go

My forecast is off to a brilliant start , how can we judge that if it isnt issued yet? , whats to say the forecast wont be changed before its rlsd to make it seem

like the first half was bang on?

Ive seen numorus two lrf being terribly wrong , yet according to him they are bang on . I see it from ALOT of forecasters claiming to be terribly accurate but they arnt , is it a pride thing? , even piers corybn(?) does the same . I remember bringing it up a few times with even close range forecasters , they go " I GOT THIS RIGHT " and im thinking hold on ive got your forecast here it doesnt say this at all , but you get a right narky response YOU DIDN'T READ INTO IT CORRECTLY.

Why cant some just admit it was wrong and try an improve on it , nobody is perfect hell forecasting is hard enough as it is

Edited December 15, 2006 by thunderstrike

[Stuart]

Dry for a change!

Quite a change to the weather during the week ahead is expected as high pressure builds across the UK. This should bring an extended spell of dry weather for most of the country with temperatures close to the seasonal average and the possibility of some patchy overnight frost developing in places. The extent of the frost will be determined by the amount of cloud that develops. Clouds acts like a blanket and is very effective at preventing frost from forming during the night. Forecasting cloud development is difficult, but our view is that there will be a fair amount of it around this week, and so frost should be fairly limited.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

The creeping cold!

High pressure has now built across the UK and this has brought dry conditions and has also effectively cut off the flow of warm air from the Atlantic which usually acts like a storage heater during the winter months keeping the UK mild. As a result temperatures have now fallen and during the days ahead it looks as though chilly conditions with overnight frost and fog in places will persist. Computer models are having difficulty forecasting how the high pressure will develop, but it does now look as though Xmas day will be dry and snowless, but rather chilly for most of the UK. Beyond that the uncertainty increases with just a hint from computer models that pressure will build further north bringing the possibility of much colder weather to the UK. The alternative and at the moment more likely scenario is that high pressure will collapse into the continent allowing milder and wetter south westerly winds to return.

Read

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Edited December 20, 2006 by Stuart H

[Stuart]

45 day forecast update

December brought the UK yet another milder than average month with very little snow. The new year has started in a similar vain with wet and windy conditions affecting the UK and it looks as though the unsettled spell will continue for some time. You can check out our new 45 day outlook here, but as always remember that forecasting accuracy falls away rapidly when looking ahead more than a few days.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Remaining unsettled

Further spells of cloud and rain will cross the UK during the week ahead as the unsettled spell of weather continues. One feature we are keeping an eye on is a small secondary low pressure system which looks set to track across southern areas during Saturday bringing a spell of potentially very wet weather.

In many ways the set up is fairly typical for this time of year, with low pressure near Iceland and high pressure to the south. This allows a conveyor belt of low pressure systems to move in from the Atlantic and across the UK which is referred to as a zonal flow. What makes things a little unusual is the extent of the eastwards progression of the zonal flow with the mild air pushing all the way to Russia. Usually at this time of year high pressure would be building out of Russia to block the zonal flow keeping Eastern Europe under very cold air. Not this year, at least not yet!

Read our updated 14 day discussion forecast here

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Still no sign of winter

The current unsettled and often mild spell of weather looks likely to continue during the week ahead. The general pattern is for successive weather systems to move in from the Atlantic bringing outbreaks of more persistent rain with clearer and showery conditions behind them. There is the possibility of some slightly colder being thrown into the package for a short time during the middle part of the week leading to the chance of some wintry conditions over the Scottish hills for a short period of time.

Much of the northern hemisphere is currently experiencing a mild winter and this is now helping to push down the price of oil and gas. So although a number of you would like to see some cold and snowy weather the mild conditions do bring some tangible benefits for many of us!

Read our updated 14 day discussion forecast

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Remaining unsettled

The current spell of changeable weather is expected to continue during the next week bringing further wet and windy conditions at times to all areas. In the short term it does look as though southern parts of the UK may well see something of an improvement with a fair amount of dry and mild weather this weekend, and brighter conditions especially on Sunday. Developments for northern areas are less promising with further cloud and rain crossing on Saturday followed by cooler and showery weather on Sunday. During the first half of next week outbreaks of rain which may well be heavy at times looks set to push across all of the UK.

Read our updated 14 day discussion forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Mad Murdoch]

no sign of snow yet then!

[Thundery wintry showers]

2001 was not a write off everywhere. There were several decent snowfalls in Scotland and at least one in the North of England in February and early March. :blush:

I don't think Ian was suggesting that 2001 was a write-off, rather that the early February easterly that was projected by some to bring a huge freeze-up to many parts of Britain only affected Scotland for a significant period, and northern England very temporarily. Thus for southern areas in particular that served as a failed attempt at an easterly. I wasn't following the models at that time, but I'm guessing that there were probably "fantasy runs" where the frontal battleground was further south, with sunshine and prolonged heavy snow showers firing in to the north of it on a brisk ENE'ly.

According to my own Winter Snow Events file the season of 2000/01 scored 22, which is close to the long-term average, and above anything we've had since 1995/96. Of course that figure is a national aggregate; I recall the Central Lowlands of Scotland having a notably snowy winter.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Heres the latest:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.co.uk/

Unsettled then possibly colder

Another changeable week with further outbreaks of wet and windy weather is expected for much of the UK, and it may be particularly stormyXmas in southern and central regions on Thursday. However, there are now signs of a change and it does increasingly look as though colder weather will begin to push south across the UK during the second half of the week. This could bring the prospect of some sleet or snow showers to northern areas and frost even in southern regions by the weekend. The likely duration and depth of the colder weather is not certain at the moment.

Thats a bit more like it

[Stuart]

Thursday now looks likely to be an exceptionally stormy day with winds possibly gusting in excess of 80mph in places. It currently looks as though winds will strengthen across much the United Kingdom during Wednesday night with the worst conditions likely on Thursday morning. As well as being windy some heavy outbreaks of rain are likely to develop widely. Some travel disruption is likely and you may want to check out the latest severe weather warnings issued by the UK Met Office here.

Followed by a taste of winter?

Those of you who read our forum and look at the various forecast charts available on the site are probably aware that the medium range computer forecasting models are pointing towards a dramatic change to much colder weather from the weekend onwards. At the moment we think it is too early to be confident about the length and intensity of any cold spell. When forecasting beyond 5 days ahead the accuracy of computer models quickly falls below 50%!

Read our updated 14 day discussion forecast here.

</SPAN>15/01/2007, 22:55

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Stormy Thursday

Stormy conditions with winds gusting locally up to 80mph and heavy outbreaks of rain are likely across large parts of the England, Wales and parts of Ireland on Thursday. The wind will strengthen during Thursday morning before beginning to subside in the afternoon. Some travel disruption and structural damage is likely and you may want to check out the latest severe weather warnings issued by the UK Met Office here. It looks as though Scotland may well miss the worst of the gales.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Increasingly wintry

A change to colder conditions is expected to develop during the next few days as high pressure builds in the mid-Atlantic allowing a northerly airflow to develop across the UK. After the prolonged spells of mild weather this winter the change will come as quite a shock! The intensity and duration of the cold spell is still uncertain, however, at the moment it looks as though cold conditions will persist into the second half of next week. There is likely to be some rain, sleet and snow around for a time, but it does look likely to be mainly dry from mid-week onwards. Frost is likely to develop widely overnight.

Read our updated 14 day discussion forecast here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Cold, rain, sleet or snow in places

A spell of wintry weather is now developing and is likely to last until the second half of next week. High pressure building in the mid-Atlantic will enable a northerly and then probably a north easterly airflow to develop across the UK making it feel much colder than during recent weeks. There maybe a fair amount of precipitation mixed in the flow at times and some of this will be falling as snow, although marginal temperatures may mean rain or sleet

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Cold week ahead

Colder air has now pushed down across the UK and it looks set to remain for most of the week ahead. High pressure in the mid-Atlantic will keep the UK a cold northerly air stream with overnight frosts developing widely. At the moment we are not confident about precipitation amounts and whether snowfall is likely to be widespread. The computer model we are basing our forecasts on is suggesting that significant widespread snow is not likely, but it is worth noting that others are pointing towards a higher risk. We will have regular updates during the week ahead. Those of you wanting a post code forecast for your location can find that here. Our latest 14 day discussion forecast is online here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

Quiet and settled weather

Temperatures should return to the seasonal average during the next few days as quiet and settled weather develops across the UK. High pressure is slipping south eastwards towards the UK which is cutting off the cold north easterly air flow of recent days. It does look as though the settled spell will continue into next week with an increasing chance of some overnight frost later on. Those of you wanting a post code forecast for your location can find that here. Our latest 14 day discussion forecast is online here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

[Stuart]

High pressure in charge

A dry week with temperatures often above the seasonal average is expected for much of the UK. High pressure to the south west of the UK will allow relatively mild air from the south west across the UK and although there isn’t likely to be much rain it may often be overcast. As we head towards the weekend it does look as though a few subtle changes are possible with the high pressure centre moving northwards across the UK increasing the chance of frost and brighter conditions, but still keeping things generally dry.

The relatively mild conditions during the week ahead will encourage further early spring growth, but there still is time for more wintry weather. Middle February often brings a short sharp shock reminding us that winter is not quite done with.

Those of you wanting a post code forecast for your location can find that here. Our latest 14 day discussion forecast is online here.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/