2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thoughts.

[Mondy]

Call me a sceptic, but i'll just wait and see - if i had enough time, resources and decent usage of words, i could've written that!

Still, not long to go now troops Hope your* all brushing up?

Edit: You're

Edited April 4, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[kold weather]

Yep I'm ready for round three Mondy!(Was here for both 04 and 05)

[summer blizzard]

Bring on the hurricanes...

(if we say it enougth times, the hurricane season may start early)

(Well, it worked with the easterlies)

[kold weather]

Indeed SB!

North Atlantic anomalies out and the figures has dropped even more, the atlantic is now just 0.19c above average, close to 1c below last year!

Anyway synoptically over in the states and presently a strong Bermuda high over the east coast of the states, I'm sure people in Florida hope this pattern isn't reapeated in the summer:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2006040600//slp24.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2006040500//slp24.png

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//nogaps/2...0500//slp24.png

[P.K.]

It is a tiny bit more than that, the SST anomalies in the North Atlantic are 0.26C from last month.

2006 1 26.38 0.54 25.41 -0.06 27.51 0.00

2006 2 25.77 0.31 26.68 0.28 27.81 0.08

2006 3 25.71 0.26 27.39 0.49 28.18 0.07

[kold weather]

Ah okay thanks for correnting me, MOTM.....(you'll understand!)

[summer blizzard]

While the seas were only slightly above average in March, we can expect them to be at least 0.5C above average in April as the seas have warmed up rapidly in the last week.

[kold weather]

If anything I suspect it may drop slightly more SB down to about 0.15c, simply because you've got a pretty large cool pool to the east of the USA:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Though no doubt the tropics regions have warmer up overall since 2-3 weeks ago.

I'm hoping to see all the 'old firm' who was about last year and the year before and also some new faces!

[P.K.]

Ah okay thanks for correnting me, MOTM.....(you'll understand!)

Don't worry I do, lol.

[summer blizzard]

Just to liven things up a bit, the NHC analysis chart shows a low coming out of Africa, steering currents will keep it to the south, pushing it eastward, sheer looks weak although there could be some dry air and sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[P.K.]

The NHC have upgraded that possible October STS so also included for last year is STS 19 from the 4th to the 5th October. (I know it is not really the 2006 season but I didn't know where else to post it without starting a new thread)

[summer blizzard]

The low i was refering to yesterday has not moved however it has strengthened by 4mb.

[kold weather]

It's fine in here P.K

Just had a look at that system and it does indeed strike me as looking very organised. Actually on the track map it doesn't appear to be that much further west then Vince was when it formed.

Seems like last year the eastern atlantic was a real hotbed for tropical cyclones, that makes it 5 that formed outside typical hurricane zones.

[Paranoid]

Is this low tropical or extratropical? It strikes me as a bit early for the first tropical depression.

[crimsone]

Is this low tropical or extratropical? It strikes me as a bit early for the first tropical depression.

It's just "African" at the moment I think. lol.

Being the middle of April though, I would imagine that any TD that formed within the next few days would be precendented by the history books. There have been a few tropical waves already this year, and it's only a month and a half before the "hurricane" season officially starts. The only thing stopping a tropical low forming at the moment is the prevailing weather conditions, which are starting to clear up as far as I can tell.

While there's no guarentee that any given low out of Africa will become tropical, it certainly wouldn't suprise me at this time of year.

[summer blizzard]

A WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS FORMED ALONG 34W FROM 3N-9N ENHANCING SHOWERS WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED MILES NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS CARRIES THIS TROUGH WWD ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR IT.

Looks like a possible invest.

[Thundersquall]

How much temperature rise in the Atlantic needs to occur, before ex-Hurricanes threaten

the British Isles with not much less force than over Florida?

It is my amateur opinion that a 1°C to 2°C rise could result in very much stronger extra-tropical depressions threatening or affecting the British Isles.

Edited April 13, 2006 by Thundersquall

[kold weather]

It's very intresting debate Thundersquall.

As I said in the tutorial thread, Its not quite so easy as just Sea surface temps, upper air temps can also make a difference, with lower temps higher up you can get away with lower temps at the surface and you'll still get convection going.

The best time of year for storms to survive at high latitudes would probably be a month like October, still fairly high SST's but the upper air temps are cooling by that time, which as we saw this systems like Vince, can make the difference and allow tropical cyclones to form here.

In terms of ex-hurricanes, I agree that a rise of a few C in terms of ocean temps to our west could make the difference and allow hurricanes to survive further north and therefore remian still quite powerful with more latent heat and energy left then would be the case.

I'd suspect that the tropical zone will be expanded in the future if global warming continues, though I dare say the tropical cyclones probably wouldn't get that much more powerful, because upper air temps will also rise with sea temps, so actually despite warmer temps at the surface, the net gain MAY not be that large.

One thing that may become more common in the future is systems landfalling in the Azores/Canaries islands, possibly even Portugal may see more common landfalls of TD's and maybe even TS if seas keep getting warmer.

[summer blizzard]

While i do not believe that Hurricanes could ever form in the vicinity, it is quite possible given the right track that a storm could still have Tropical charecterisitics when it makes landfall in Britain, looking at the charts, is entirely plausable that the storm which hit the Faroe Islands in 1966 still had tropical charecteristics for a few hours before becoming extra-Tropical.

[Paranoid]

That was Hurricane Faith, was it not? Though how it could sustain itself still seems very strange.

[summer blizzard]

I think that Hurricane Faith was weakening at the time and must have been moving quite fast with above average sea surface temperatures.

A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK LOW APPEARS TO BE FORMING NEAR10N38W TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 34W-41W. GFS CARRIES THIS FEATURE WWD FOR A DAY SO BEFORE DISSIPATING IT.

That was the low i was talking about yesterday.

THE MOST CONCENTRATED MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF NW AFRICA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

Looks like a potential area of interest around 25W.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Is there any study around that talks about previous hurricanes that have hit the UK and what the general conditions were that provoked that hurricane to last to the UK? I know some absolute star last year posted a map with the dates of hurricanes that hit us back as far as late 1800's and early 1900's. Other to that I don't know too much. Would be interesting to get to know more! Manybe John Holmes has some info ... or knows of some ...

[crimsone]

That star wasn't me, but nevertheless, here it is again B)

[kold weather]

SST's have been on the rebound over the last few weeks, dipped to slightly below average at the start of April but has since rebounded upto 0.4c above average, a rather rapid turn-around. The eastern USA cold pool is stil present, though it has weakened a little while the rest of the atlantic has warmed a little more, esp the gulf which is now getting int othe 80's often.

[summer blizzard]

Kold Weather, with the QBO now in a westerly phase, would that indicate more westerly sheer in the tropical regions, terefore subduing tropical development.