2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thoughts.

[kold weather]

Hi everyone. Well I decided since we've got several months till the 2006 season offically starts and at least 3-4 months before actvity relaly peps up I thought I'd make this thread for any comments about the 06 season, this can include anything from articles to forecasts, here is my rather OTT forecast, take it is as my worst case season which I think is possible:

Alberto- Weak TS, max winds something like 40-45mph, hitting Hispanola, flash flooding and lots of deaths due to this on high terrean, early June

Beryl- category 2, Max winds about 100mph but out to sea. Early July

Chris- Category 1, Max winds about 80mph, out to sea, similar to Beryl. Also early July, maybe a bermuda hit.

Debby- Strong category 2, North florida hit, max winds about 110mph, about 5-700 million dollars worth of damage, late July

Ernesto- Weak TS, out to sea max winds about 40mph, late July

Florence-Another Ophelia type storm, forms to the east of Florida and heads northwards, could be a threat to north Carolina, category-2 at 105mph. Early August

Gordon- The first major of the season, a re-curver and the first Cape verde system but still a danger to Bermuda, Category- 3, 125mph winds. Early August

Helene-Just about hurricane and a quick former, abit like a weaker Beta in location, max winds of 75mph. Mid August

Isaac- Another major Cape Verde system, track very similar to Isabel though stronger at landfall, weaker at peak thankfully but still a cat-4 at 140mph, landfall at 120mph. mid August

Joyce- A really powerful one, forms in the Caribbean, a similar track to Emily this year but hits Texas very hard indeed, close to Galveston which is placed in the NE eyewall, massive damage compareable to Katrina and possibly greater. At peak a 175mph category-5 in the gulf of Mexico with pressure at 899mbs, landfalling as a 135mph hurricane just south-west of Galveston, $100's billions of damage possibly in Texas. Late August.

Kirk- Strong category-1 re-curver, a cape verde system orginally then floats around the atlantic for a good 2 weeks, max at 90mph. Late August

Leslie- A quickly spun up system, small and forms just to the east of the lesser Antilles. goes on to hit Puetro Rico fairly hard as a minimal category-1 at 75mph, before being being ripped compeltely apart by shear. Early September.

Michael- Final cape Verde system, another powerful system, ,sent on a bee-hive towards south Carolina, very powerful at peak, just under category-5 at 155mph, makes landfall at 105mph with Charleston close to the eye. Early September

Nadine- moderate TS that forms in the Mid-Atlantic, max winds 55mph. mid-September

Oscar- Similar to Nadine, slightly stronger at 60mph. Mid September

Patty- 75mph hurricane out to sea, does get quite far east though, possiblty for Azores landfall. Late September

Rafael- Starts in the Bay of Campeche, very quick to form and makes it breifly to hurricane status at 75mph. late September.

Sandy- Forms several miles east of Florida, stalls and gets upto category-2, tries to make landfall in Georgia but re-curves enough before eye makes landfall, max winds upto 110mph. Late September

Tony- Mid atlantic weakeling, lasts just one advisory before dying. Mid October.

Valerie- Real suprise package this one, but extremely dangerous. forms in the southern reaches of the Gulf of mexico and spins up very fast, and stalls with nothing to move it for now, during the 36hrs it stalls atmospheric condtions become next to perfect and it bombs, dropping 70mbs in 24hrs making it upto category-5 and winds at 170mph, pressure down to 904mbs, re-curves ENE after stall towards Florida extremely fast, still very powerful and makes a landfall about 20 miles north of Charlotte Harbour destroying the area, hitting as a 155mph category-4, also some major floods in Tampa region due to postion of the eye, comprasions made between Charley and Valerie, though Valerie is a fair size larger, though still not that large compared to other systems. Late October.

William- Weak TS in the Mid-atlantic

Alpha- yes I believe we will see Alpha pop up again, this time I think it may well make hurricane status, could be a threat to Bermuda, 75mph hurricane.

Well thats what I think, this season would probably be known more so then the 05 season simply because of more larger hits and ALOT of hurricanes, 16 overall though several are only just hurricanes.

big hitters are Valerie and Joyce though several cat-1 and cat-2 landfalls on N.Florida and the Carolinas. In terms of ACE, I think this would actually top the 05 season, simply because of many cape Verde systems, possibly with a ACE upto 270-280.

As to the ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) here is what each system has come out with so far, only on E but wil lfinish it this week:

(ps, I've only gone to 2 decimal places, not 4 like the office would)

Alberto- 0.68

Beryl- 8.16

Chris- 8.30

Debby- 17.35

Ernesto- 0.24

This isn't a forecast by any means, just what I'd consider on the extreme scale of what I actually expect to occur.

[Paranoid]

Out of interest, how did you work out what might happen for each storm. Are you using current data or guessing?

I think we'll probably see at least 1 category 5 this year, i'm not sure how active it'll be. 2005 was a real record breaker, and i don't think we'll have another like it for quite a while

( I don't suppose any of you have guesses for the 2009 season)

[kold weather]

Well you can have a reasonable idea abnout storm amounts, or at the very least whether it'll be a very active season. This season has those trade-marks so I decided to go also hyper-active.

I highly doubt it'll be quite as active as last season, though that was also said for the 05 season after the 04 season ended.

As for the actual storms, any detail is nothing more then guessing until the systems start to form.

[Paranoid]

Out of interest, we haven't had a Cat 5 hit the U.S mainland for quite some while now. 14 years by my count. I know the gap betwen U.S Cat 5 hits is much longer. The gap betwen Labour Day and Camille was 34 years, and the gap betwen Camille and Andrew was 23 years. If the seasons are getting more active, surely we should see another soon?

[crimsone]

I reckon, unfortunately, that one may be overdue.

[kold weather]

Well how many storms make landfall on the US depends on many factors, some such as La Nina being here:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

Can be predicted a fair way in advance, while other factors such as how strong the Bermuda/Azores high will be and where exactly it will be can't really be forecast until much closer to the start of the season.

[londonsnow]

Interesting read Kold, but is this just not a work of fiction. If forecasters have problems predicting course, intensity etc of any particular hurricane, this is surely just a bit of fun on your part. If this comes true even in part, I'll recommend you take the chair at the NOAA!

[P.K.]

Well how many storms make landfall on the US depends on many factors, some such as La Nina being here:

Depends what you read, the BoM still have it as neutral.

[summer blizzard]

Here are my thoughts on the 2006 hurricane system.

I believe that the coming hurricane season will be a early starter with Tropical Waves forming as early as April with one of the Tropical Waves making it to Tropical Depression status.

During May, i believe that there will be another two Tropical Depressions and also Tropical Storm Alberto with one of the Tropical Depressions taking a path similar to Hurricane Beta, which could cause problems with flooding.

During June, i expect category 1 Hurricane Debby, and Tropical Storms Beryl and Chris with one of the Tropical Storms again forming in a similar place to Hurricane Beta, causing problems with flooding, i also expect a few Tropical Depressions to form with one of them making landfall near Cuba, which again could cause problems with flooding.

During July, i expect category 2 Hurricane Florence, category 1 hurricanes Gorden and Enesto, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect Tropical Storm Helene to form and hit Paurto Rico along with several Tropical Depressions forming with one making landfall in the Bahamas.

During August, i expect category 4 Hurricane Issac, category 3 hurricanes Joyce and Kirk, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect category 2 Hurricanes Leslie and Michael, with one making landfall in Florida and one making lanfall somewhere in the Gulf Of Mexico, i also expect Tropical Storms Nadine, Oscar and Patty along with several Tropical Depressions forming.

During September, i expect i expect category 5 Hurricane Rafael, category 4 hurricanes Sandy and Tony, both of them forming in the southern Carribean with one hitting Cuba and one again taking a similar path to Hurricane Beta, i also expect category 3 Hurricanes Valerie and William, with one making landfall in Florida and one making lanfall somewhere in the Gulf Of Mexico, i also expect category 1 hurricanes Alpha, Beta and Gamma along with Tropical Storms Epsilon, Zeta and Cappa along with several Tropical Depressions forming.

I will update this forecast monthly.

[kold weather]

At this stage, yes it is all just fiction but its what I believe is possible, thats all, but as you say londonsnow its impossible to forecast with any real idea at all, everything for now is guesswork ,though the numbers of storms is probably guessable right now.

I for one hopes it doesn't happen because it could wipe out another two US places, like Punta Gorda that got hammered by Charley in 04 and Galveston, which would quite possibly be even more costly in terms of losing oil then even Katrina was.

P.K. yes indeed they still do have it at neutral but to me it does look like a weak La Nina and I personally think its probably the right call to make.

[Cloudburst]

I recon although still a lively year, we wont see as many USA landfalls, and a few less severe hurricanes in the atlantic basin.

[P.K.]

P.K. yes indeed they still do have it at neutral but to me it does look like a weak La Nina and I personally think its probably the right call to make.

I'll agree it is a La Nina when both the NOAA and BoM say it is.

[Snow Queen one]

I went to Miami this christmas and have a friend who lives there. Hurricane Rita was so bad the everglades park was still closed in late Dec two months after Rita. Whilst i was there we got to talking about the hurricane season and the info from the Florida Hurricane Centre is that this comming season is expected to be as active if not worse than last season.

Believe me the Floridians are getting prepared.

Edited February 5, 2006 by Snow Queen one

[Paranoid]

Well, i'll have a little guess on Hurricane strengths

Alberto: Tropical storm, 50mph winds. Hits East Florida

Beryl: TS 45mph. Hits Jamica and dies over Cuba

Chris: TS 70mph. Moves north over coasts of Florida, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Debby: Category 3. 956mb and 115mph winds, Hits Texas as strong Category 2

Ernesto: Category 1: 85mph winds. Doesn't make landfall, hangs around in Atlantic.

Florence: Category 3: 949mb with 120mph winds. Hits Florida Panhandle

Gordon: Category 2: 100mph winds. Hits Bahamas and moves into gulf, and hits Mexico as a Category 1

Helene: Strong TS. Doesn't make landfall and begins to move northwards after becoming extratropical.

Issac: Strong Category 4, 150 mph winds, 934mb. Hits West Florida as a Moderate Category 4, causing heavy damage.

Joyce: Category 3 955mb 120mph winds. Hits Bahamas and Cuba, and dies out over Mexico.

Kirk: Moderate TS. Hits Canary Islands. No damage

Leslie: Category 4 140mph 933mb. Hits Cancun and causes moderate damage.

Michael: Category 5 922mb 160mph winds. Hits Nicaragua at almost Cat 5 stregth, killing over 200 people. It weakens and moves north as a TS, causing flooding in Mexico.

Nadine+Oscar: These two form in quick succesion of each other, and slam into Florida. Nadine is a Category 2, and Oscar is a weak Category 1

Patty: Weak TS, doesn't make landfall.

Rafael: Category 4 930mb, 150mph winds. This hits Texas/Louisiana border. Fortuanatly it is a small storm, and doesn't cause widespread damage.

Sandy: Strong TS, hits Bermuda.

Tony: Category 1, hits same areas as Rafael.

Valerie: Category 3 at Landfall, but Strong category 4 over the GOM, and causes heavy damage to oil rigs in the Gulf. It has 145mph winds.

William: Category 5 911mb 180mph winds. This storm smashes the Yucatan area, making landfall as a category 5 storm, just above the 4/5 border. This storm kills a number of foreigners in the area.

Alpha: Weak TS

Beta: Category 1, begins to move towards Maderia but is blown apart by windshear.

Edited February 7, 2006 by Paranoid

[kold weather]

Intresting thoughts Paranoid, sems like your going for Issac, Michael, Rafael and William to be the most dangerous systems, sounds like your going for a season prehaps even more deadly then my thoughts!!!

Snow Queen one, very wise to prepare for the hurricane season now.

[kold weather]

Right well BoM now saying that its probably weakly La Nina in the Pacific right now but it won't be called La nina offically by them for another 3 months, simply because of its timings and strength:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Paranoid]

Would a La Nina such as this aid devlopments for a hurricane, hinder development or have no effect? It's a weak one as i understand.

[Aussie Big Ben]

We've had a very short Monsoon Season down here in Australia. This would certainly seem to back up the La Nina thoughts expressed earlier in this thread. So far the NT (middle top of Australia) has had 0 cyclones which is a huge surprise. 3-5 is about average I would have thought.

Does this tend to indicate that the upcomming Northern Hemisphere Hurricane season will be severe?

[The PIT]

I wonder if we get any over this side of the Atlantic again.

One factor is going to be the SST how are they shaping up??

[kold weather]

Well La nina will have a impact, though there are many other factors such as the average pressure across the tropics, shear values, MJO, the SST's are also a point to take into consideration as well, and these are just a few I've mentioned, there are others that have a impact on how strong the storms may on average get.

As for SSTA's, they are still in general higher then average but they are on average cooler then this time last year.

[P.K.]

We've had a very short Monsoon Season down here in Australia. This would certainly seem to back up the La Nina thoughts expressed earlier in this thread. So far the NT (middle top of Australia) has had 0 cyclones which is a huge surprise. 3-5 is about average I would have thought.

It has been rather quiet around Australia over the last few years. So far this season there has already been Bertie, Clare, Daryl, and Jim.

[summer blizzard]

I would of thought that a La Nino would encourage a lower than average hurrican season on its own because it favours a Sub-Tropical Jet Stream which would mean a higher chance of westerly shear however due to the fact that sea surface temperatures are higher than average , then this would favour a active hurricane season, so i would hypothesise that we will see a lot of Tropical Waves and Atlantic Hurricanes however they will not survive long.

I do not know how the MJO affects tropical activity, could somebody post a link.

[SnowBear]

Hiya folks

Will be an interesting year, not going to make any predictions though except it will I feel be "above average" all told.

Kold, what ya reckon on these hybrids we seen, I think we could be seeing more this year.

[NL]

This year /06 to be a Hurricane record breaker???? http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

[summer blizzard]

Northern Light, that forecast is for the coming hurricane season to be one of the most active, with sixteen Tropical Storms, nine huuricanes and four major urricanes with two of the hurricanes and five of the Tropical Storms making lanfall in the United States Of America and one of the hurricanes and two of the Tropical Storms making lanfall in the Carribean islands.

When does the NOAA release their 2006 hurricane season forecast?????