2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thoughts.

[kold weather]

Hi Chris, what part of Mexico, you should be safe though the eastern side of the Yucatan can be at risk from tropical storms and sometimes cat-1/2's at that time of year, I shouldn't think things will start out at quite such a pace as they did last year.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi Darren. We're staying in Riveira Maya, which is about 30km south of Cancun, and opposite Cozumel. So the East side really.

Apparantly the hurricaine shelters are a bit...urmmm..grim.

[kold weather]

Well I think the best bit of advice is just be a little wary and try to keep upto date, same with anyone going out to that area. In real terms you should be safe and there is probably only a very small chance of anything of real note hitting your area during your holiday, still its something to be alert about, because last year hurricane Emily did hit that sort of region in Mid-July as a low-end cat-4:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlant...EMILY/track.gif

I'm sure everything will be okay though so don't worry!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Cheers Darren. Its funny you should mention about last year. The day we are due to fly back, is the day it hit our resort At least i'd get some good photos

[P.K.]

Just 50 minutes until the start of the season.

Phil Klotzbach released his latest forecast yesterday which can be found here http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/june2006/.

[kold weather]

Well the season's underway now, all I can say is lets watch for every single wave now!

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the season's underway now, all I can say is lets watch for every single wave now!

well tropical depression twoe has now formed! the 2nd depression of the season.! all the info can be found at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Edited June 3, 2006 by snowmadchrisuk

[summer blizzard]

I am going to post my original forecast for the 2006 hurricane season, and also my updated forecast for the 2006 hurricane season.

June - 1 Tropical Storm

July - 1 Tropical Storm and 1 Hurricane

August - 3 Tropical Storms and 2 hurricanes with 1 becoming a major hurricane

September - 3 hurricanes with two major hurricanes

October - 1 Tropical Storm and 2 hurricanes with 1 major hurricane

9 named storms

8 hurricanes

4 major hurricanes

That was my original forecast for the 2006 hurricane season, as you can see, my June forecast was correct however a hurricane did not form during July.

June - 1 Tropical Storm

July - 1 Tropical Storm

August - 2 Tropical Storms and 1 hurricane

September - 2 hurricanes with 1 major hurricane

October - 1 Tropical Storm and 1 hurricane

7 named storms

5 hurricanes

1 major hurricane

The predicted amount of named storms has been reduced as has the numer of hurricanes however because almost all of the named storms are predicted to become hurricanes, i still expect the 2006 ACE percentage to be fairly high.

Just thought i'd post that the data above is wrong, while updating my thoughts, i realised i had made a mistake, so here is what i should of posted...

June - 1 Tropical Storm

July - 1 Tropical Storm and 1 Hurricane

August - 3 Tropical Storms and 2 hurricanes with 1 becoming a major hurricane

September - 3 hurricanes with two major hurricanes

October - 1 Tropical Storm and 2 hurricanes with 1 major hurricane

14 named storms

8 hurricanes

4 major hurricanes

As you can see, i later revised my estimate downward...

June - 1 Tropical Storm

July - 1 Tropical Storm

August - 2 Tropical Storms and 1 hurricane

September - 2 hurricanes with 1 major hurricane

October - 1 Tropical Storm and 1 hurricane

9 named storms

4 hurricanes

1 major hurricane

My latest update remains the same.

[SnowBear]

Just keep watch on the coast of Africa folks, hardly any dry air showing on the water vapour image. Any wave that does form is going to have quite favourable conditions with regards to water vapour at the moment.

[The PIT]

You know Joe B makes a lot of noise.

[SnowBear]

You know Joe B makes a lot of noise.

Lol, he does? Who is Joe B? lol

Edit: Ah-ha, now I get it, I scrolled up and saw the post some way above

Sorry

Edited September 1, 2006 by SnowBear

[Hurricane Debby]

Interesting update on Hurricane Track.

UPDATED: 1:00 am EDT, September 3, 2006

BIG HURRICANES ON THE WAY OR A LOT OF DRY AIR?

I have been watching the various computer models and have noticed a significant increase in the amount of activity coming up in the Atlantic Basin. The GFS model in particular develops several large tropical cyclones, perhaps in to hurricanes, and moves them around the Atlantic on the south side of the late summer subtropical high pressure ridge. So, two questions come to mind immediately: are these potential systems real and if so, where will they likely track? I think we can say with some confidence now that yes, we will see additional development in the near term. There are several tropical waves to watch with one or two in the central Atlantic that could easily be named storms by mid-week. In fact, the longer range of the GFS model shows one after another forming off of Africa and marching westward. Now we come to part two: where will anything that develops track? That is the tough part- the key to this whole burst coming up will be where the Bermuda/Azores High sets up and how strong it is. There is usually a break between the two high pressure cells and that break acts like a path of least resistance to tropical cyclones. If the storms/hurricane miss the bus, so to speak, then they get picked up by the western high pressure- the Bermuda High- and often have a free and clear shot at land masses. There is no way to know with any certainty what the steering pattern will be like over the next 15 days or so. I would encourage our visitors to keep a close watch on things over the next couple of weeks while this coming surge of activity gets underway. Remember, I do not make forecasts and try not to speculate, but the models are showing me that there is at least reason to believe that the East Coast and Florida should certainly keep a close watch on the tropics in the weeks ahead. Of course, this is not rocket science- this is the busiest time of the hurricane season- I think we would be watching no matter what- but with strong tropical waves lined up like aircraft on a busy runway, I am certainly going to be tuned in a little deeper to what is going on out there. For the remainder of the weekend, enjoy it. Warm air should provide for a nice Labor Day with no worries of any immediate threats from the tropics. Just check in from time to time as we get in to the new week.

[Brrr]

Interesting article here, the gist of the story is A developing El Nino event -- abnormal warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean -- may be partially to blame (or thank) for the relatively quiet season so far.

Here's the full story

Hostile conditions are hindering hurricanes : Monday, September 04, 2006

http://www.al.com/news/mobileregister/inde...&thispage=1

Belinda

[rixxxgolf]

The season, till now has been awful.

No-one wants deadly hurricanes galore, but, maybe a few HUGE nasty ones are needed to create a show!

Not sure it'll explode either to be honest.

[Calrissian]

Well, we are now moving into mid-september - which should be the 'height' of activity, but no, its quiet.

Florence has been dull, despite its huge size, it was still a dull affair.

--

I've been re-reading some of the earlier posts in this thread, it certainly makes for some interesting reading. So, virtually everyone got the season wrong, okay, nevermind that though. Who couldn't be forecasting 25+ names after last years madness? Even the overly paid experts have been way out.

What is still ahead of us ? We've really only got, what, maybe 4 or 5 weeks when there is a reasonable chance of a mighty decent storm forming. Seems unlikely though, doesn't it?

*Is this one of those quiet years, where we'll get an Andrew, which otherwise would be a relatively dull as hell season?

My inclination...says 'watch for Kirk'.

Calrissian: watching STS-115

[kold weather]

I wouldn't have called Florence dull myslef, yes it didn't make landfall and destroy everything in sight, and no it wasn't a monster cat-5 but still it was a decent strengthened cat-1 hurricane which actually didn't look too bad at some points. (well compared to the cack we've had so far anyway!)

At the same time we've got Td7 which is going to be upgraded in the next 6-12hrs for certain. Also coming off Africa right now we've got a beast of a wave with a circulation already evident. Given how the SAL has now gone this one will not suffer the same fate as the others and Debby and indeed most models are forecasting it to become quite a potent hurricane.

So while most of these systems will stay out to sea, we could have 3 systems in play come Wednesday, florence, Td7/Gordon and also the African wave has a good shot at becoming Td8.

Besides we need some more of these long trackers as the ACE at the moment is rather low thanks to these breif TS systems bar Florence!

[Taras Incognito]

I've been tracking Tropical Storm (Now Hurricane) Florence for the past week and it's taken ages for it to get anywhere, or at least it seems to take ages, I might just be really impatient.

The thing is, it's now moving pretty fast and will make more ground in the next three days than it seems to have already done since becoming Tropical Depression Six.

Why is this?!?!?!? Why!!?!?!?!?!?

What was it doing down there that's now not important anymore and now speeding around into the Northern Atlantic?

Will Tropical Depression Seven, due to become Tropical Storm Gordon (Brown) later on today (EST) mess around like Florence has?

Edited September 11, 2006 by Taras Incognito

[Calrissian]

Hmm, well, its mid-september....

8 names, and looks like Isacc is a likely storm within 5-7 days.

Anyone with ideas on how far we'll get into the alphabet this year?

I'm thinking at least Rafael, and probably William - but most of the storms will miss land.

Calrissian: Behold, Isacc soon to be born !

[kold weather]

Hmm, be lucky if we even get close to William to be honest Calrissian, If my memory recall is decent I said between 11-13 named storms in early July and thats what I think I'll stand by. Intresting note though that despite 8 named storms and now three hurricanes we are still some way below the ACE average for the time of year:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

Though saying that the recent burst of 3 systems has helped quite a decent bit to move us closer to where we should be, tohugh we are still about 25% behind of where we should be.

Edited September 15, 2006 by kold weather

[Somerset Squall]

Hmm, well, its mid-september....

8 names, and looks like Isacc is a likely storm within 5-7 days.

Anyone with ideas on how far we'll get into the alphabet this year?

I'm thinking at least Rafael, and probably William - but most of the storms will miss land.

Calrissian: Behold, Isacc soon to be born !

We would need an extremely active end to the season for us to get to William. If I were to take a guess, I would say we will reach Oscar.

[crimsone]

I assume nobody wants to say epsilon then? :blink:

[Calrissian]

I assume nobody wants to say epsilon then? :blink:

Not for this year, maybe the 2007 season though.

[Paranoid]

I'll go for a moderate estimate of Leslie or Michael.