2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thoughts.

[Anti-Mild]

Very intresting post Dawlish. Global watrming doesn't seem to have increased the numbers of tropical cyclones and globally they have in fact ever so slightly reduced from the last 30 years. The strength issue though is uncertain. Certainly in the Atlantic there has been a increase in overall strength with many more hurricanes going on to become major hurricanes. As for a need for a cat-6, no because category-5 does mean complete destruction and you can't get much more complete then that, though I think there would be a idea to split it into 2 categories, with lower end category-5's such as Isabel and Ivan as cat-5a and then your stronger cat-5's like Wilma and Gilbert.

Waves comnig off Africa will become more and more common now as the ITCZ continues to migrate northwards and the sea's continue to heat up.

I seem to remember finding a website that put forward the theory that hurricane activity was a long term cyclical thing.

This isn't the one I found but it does point towards a cycle:

http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn4197

The one I had found previously showed geological records dating back to the 1700's that supported the idea of alternating quiet and busy hurricane seasons.

If the New Scientist article holds water, then a busy period of around 30 years from the late 1860's to 1900 (32 years lets say) was followed by a quiet spell until the early 1930's (another 30-odd years). Then another busy spell through to the late 1950's. If we continue the apparent trend forward it would suggest that we are in the middle of another busy period of hurricane activity with last year possibly the peak.

[kold weather]

Indeed Anti-mild, there is a strong case for cycle actvity, and for many GW doubters, they use these cycles as their reasoning for the increase in hurricane in the Atlantic.

I dare say that it's both these cycles and GW thats is causing the upsurge of hurricanes in the Atlantic. It must also be remembered that GW may be increasing the base temp, and that the cycles wil lsimply add or reduce that base, but GW does seem to be making that base warmer.

[P.K.]

One other thing that must be mentioned is the increase in Sea surface temps across most of the atlantic basin, TNA data hasn't come out yet (At least I don't think so!!!) but for sure it'll be an increase on March's temps, probably upto 0.45c I'd guess.

It is out now, the SSTAs were up last month by 0.14C to +0.42C.

[kold weather]

Coo,, thanks P.K, soI was pretty close to the mark then!

Only 12 days now till the hurricane season starts in terms of being offical, but as we know, things can take a while to kick off, like 2004 which took till the last few days of Fuly before anything really got going.

[crimsone]

And as it was written (by kold weather), so did the tropical waves start arriving in numbers...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 16W S OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH

IT IS LOW-LATITUDE..THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE WITH A BROAD

CIRCULATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE

FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21.5W.

TROPICAL WAVE ADDED ALONG 41W S OF 7N MOVING W 15 KT. A V-TYPE

SIGNATURE IS EMBEDDED MOSTLY WITHIN THE ITCZ AND THERE IS ALSO

GOOD SUPPORT FROM MODEL FIELDS FOR THIS WAVE. LONG TERM LOOPS

SUGGEST THAT IT SLOWLY MOVED TO THIS LOCATION AND NOW IS MOVING

MORE QUICKLY UNDER THE BUILDING ATLC RIDGE. SCATTERED MODERATE

CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 3.5N36W 3N43W EQ41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE

WAVE IS AIDING IN TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND TO THE

W OF THE AXIS OVER WRN COLOMBIA THRU PANAMA S OF 11N. A SLOW

MOVEMENT TO THE WAVE IS EXPECTED DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS TO

THE N.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N30W 2N42W EQ50W. OUTSIDE OF

TROPICAL WAVES.. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 2N W OF 44W AND

FROM 2.5N-6N BETWEEN 10N-14W.

[wolves78]

And as it was written (by kold weather), so did the tropical waves start arriving in numbers...

still think another 2 weeks b4 anything will show and be worthy of talking about even though the chinese season started early the US will start quiet IMO

[P.K.]

still think another 2 weeks b4 anything will show and be worthy of talking about even though the chinese season started early the US will start quiet IMO

It isn't really an early start for the NW Pacific season. http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-cente...limatology.html

[crimsone]

NHC have just released their 2006 Atlantic Hurricane outlook...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl...hurricane.shtml

Not had chance to read it yet, but thought I'd share the news first.

edit: 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 4-6 major hurricanes...

The main uncertainty in this outlook is not whether the season will be above normal, but how much above normal it will be. The 2006 season could become the fourth hyperactive season in a row. Another uncertainty is related to forecasting some of the specific circulation features known to produce exceptionally active seasons. High activity during the last three seasons resulted partly from an amplified upper-level ridge and lower wind shear over the western subtropical North Atlantic and eastern United States (Bell et al. 2004, 2005, 2006). In the event these conditions again develop, which cannot be predicted with confidence at this time, the 2006 seasonal ACE value could even exceed the high end of our predicted range. However, we do not currently expect a repeat of last year’s record season.

Edited May 22, 2006 by crimsone

[kold weather]

I'm presently listening to the live webcast:

http://www.nbc6.net/videostream/9253082/de..._09410405222006

Same stuff as we all know already though, high SST's, low shear and all the rest. I'll be intrested to see how high the ACE turns out to be this year, depsite the numbers during 2005, the actual ACE was per storm still not that impressive, while 2004 was quite the opposite and had several monsters, with Ivan up there in the top 3 I'd guess.

Still we are close, the SSTA are increasing, La Nina is pretty much gone and other factors do seem favorable, I'd guess a year very much like 2004 rather then 2005.

[crimsone]

...Except they have a shiney new p3 to play with (thanks for the link )

[Mondy]

Caribbean Sea looks piping hot already!

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

[crimsone]

Caribbean Sea looks piping hot already!

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

Wow that was quick! It wasn't that hot a week or two ago!!

looking at the sattelite, there seems to be a moderate abmount of convection coming off the coast of southern central america, and a little just above the carribean islands, though there's masses of convection from the ITCZ on the opposite coast of central america.

On a side note - there's an interesting convective burst in the pacific where the ITCZ and the front stretching over central america meet - is that a cold front or a warm one and how do I tell the difference from the sattelite photo? lol

[Mondy]

This seems to explain it for you, Crimsone: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATW...ml/220012.shtml?

Edit: i see you've mentioned that disco on the other page - nowt to worry about yet..

Edited May 22, 2006 by Mondy the clumsy

[crimsone]

Thanks Monds It certainly would tell me what that front stretching from the ITCZ in the eastPAC is. I'm interested in knowing how to tell myself though Is there any way to tell only from a sat photo like that, or does it need to be checked against a surface temp chart?

Edited May 22, 2006 by crimsone

[Mondy]

To be truthful and honest with you, Crimsone, i'm not entirely sure myself!

During the hurri season a lot of it becomes "obvious" anyway...not much help,i know, but others are qualified enough to help ya!

* On the other thread, i downloaded a hurricane tracking software - this was another take on the SST's

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SS...g?RandomNo=8287

Roasting hot!!

[crimsone]

To be truthful and honest with you, Crimsone, i'm not entirely sure myself!

During the hurri season a lot of it becomes "obvious" anyway...not much help,i know, but others are qualified enough to help ya!

* On the other thread, i downloaded a hurricane tracking software - this was another take on the SST's

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SS...g?RandomNo=8287

Roasting hot!!

My god that's hot!!!

I've been to swimming pools colder than that. Heck, I've bathed in water colder than that! lol

I'm suprised it's not a little more humid out there to be honest. What we could really do with is a comparison to this time last year

[Paranoid]

Which areas look like the best spots for tropical storm formation? The Gulf looks just a tad cooler than it should be, but we had Vince and Epsilon form in "cool" waters.

[crimsone]

At this precise time, I'm giving the best chance of development to approaching tropical waves rather than any anomylous surface lows. but that's a rather uninformed opinion base on instict which has been wrong each of the three times previous I've had feelingas about this season.

Maybe once it gets underwayy I can get a "feel" for it. lol.

[John Cox]

For those interested in the 2006 Atlantic Hurricane season this was posted on our Irish TV new website this morning:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0523/weather.html

"Warning of active Atlantic hurricane season

23 May 2006 08:55

Climatologists in the United States have warned that the forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be very active.

The official season runs from the beginning of June until the end of November.

Scientists expect up to 16 named storms this year, with up to six 'major' hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher with wind speeds of at least 180kph.

Advertisement

The 2005 season spawned an unprecedented 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes.

A record four major hurricanes hit the US last year, including Hurricane Katrina which devastated New Orleans. The storms killed 1,300 people and caused $80 billion in damage.

Hurricane Rita slammed into Louisiana and Texas, and Wilma briefly became the most intense Atlantic hurricane ever recorded.

US hurricane experts say a sharp rise in Atlantic storm activity since about 1995 is related to a natural shift in climatic conditions and sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that is expected to last from 15 to 40 years.

However, some climatologists say there are indications that human-induced global warming could be increasing the average intensity of tropical cyclones, although there is no evidence to date that it is affecting the number of hurricanes."

[sconetone]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere

Accuweather Joe B 2006 risk map

New York Hurricane?? Skipload of salt possibly?

[kold weather]

The Gulf of Mexico on average is pretty close tro the average it should be looking at the anomaly maps, though the tropical mid-atlantic is the area thats quite abit above average at present.

I tend to agree with the outlook that NOAA have issued. I've heard people saying that there will be 20+ storms. Ask yourslef this though, would you be predicting 20 storms if last year only had 10???

I think 13-16 TS is pretty close to the mark, I personally expect it to at the upper end of the cycle with a pattern somewhat like 2004. Also worth noting the amount of majors, 4-6 is pretty impressive for any year and would certainly leave plenty of options for powerful landfalls and looking back at previous years, no doubt there will be one, I also think ACE will be about 195% of the average which would once again give a large total.

sconetone, wouldn't pay any real attention to that, to rate New york higher then say S.Frloida and the gulf is a little foolish I'd say and I dare say New york is in red...because its New York and not because thats where the highest risk is....though I'm not going to rule out somewhere like that getting some sort of action, all it takes is a storm to get caugth on a sharp trough and they could end up near New-York. i'm just not sure there is any real justification for it being in the very high zone!!!!!

[crimsone]

It is a bit odd that someone should predict a higher risk on the east coast that anywhere on the gulf or florida

Sure, storms sometimes run up there brushing the coast, especially at the end of season going by last years storms, but that doesn't seem to be to be a typical path.

[sconetone]

Yep the map sure did look a bit bonkers to me

Cannot see it working out that way (he says with fingers crossed!)

[P.K.]

Apologies if this has been posted elsewhere

Accuweather Joe B 2006 risk map

Think they said exactly the same thing last year in the hope they might be correct and the NHC wrong. We all know who was correct.

Edited May 23, 2006 by P.K.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Blimey. Just come across this thread. Some fantastic info on here.

So are we looking at another early season? I'm in Mexico for the first half of July, so i'm hoping the season wont start as early as last year.