Yearly CET

[Stratos Ferric]

It will literally take the universe to freeze for us to get an average yearly temperature....unlikely.

I was about to cajole you for the sort of exaggeration normally the preserve of SM (just joking, just joking, I know Nick S exaggerates as well...), however, given that we're half way through December and up at around 15.7 or something, I think that whilst the universe freezing might be an overstatement, the Thames freezing wouldn't be.

[SMU]

I was about to cajole you for the sort of exaggeration normally the preserve of SM (just joking, just joking, I know Nick S exaggerates as well...), however, given that we're half way through December and up at around 15.7 or something, I think that whilst the universe freezing might be an overstatement, the Thames freezing wouldn't be.

Have you not seen the Asteroid on the latest radar.... :lol:

S

[summer blizzard]

I have lost a lot of my links, could somebody post the link to the Hadley CET records please.

[Guest Mike W]

Here is a link to the Hadley CET series: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadle.../HadCET_act.txt

They still haven't got the November CET on the series yet, which is very different to previous months where it has been put on after a about a day or two.

Edited December 16, 2006 by Mike W

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, the available degree days to avoid setting a new annual record have now all ben consumed, as of around 8Pm last night. Yes, with freezing days for the next 16 we could still avoid a new landmark, but being realistic that wouldn't happen, and never has even in the coldest winters. Therefore, I think we can now absolutely guarantee a new annual CET record.

Something around 10.9 looks likely. That's quite a big leap from an already high starting point.

[Weather-history]

No matter how many times I do it, I still can't come up with that figure of 10.84, that the Met Office is quoting up to the 12th of December.

How do they get that figure?

[Stratos Ferric]

No matter how many times I do it, I still can't come up with that figure of 10.84, that the Met Office is quoting up to the 12th of December.

How do they get that figure?

Mr D.

I haven't double checked to see the quote, but my SUSPICION is that it's as a discussion on the previous page, i.e. the figure quoted is a value extrapolate ON the 13th FOR the year end, as opposed to, on the 13th upto and including the 13th.

[ribster]

Well, the available degree days to avoid setting a new annual record have now all ben consumed, as of around 8Pm last night. Yes, with freezing days for the next 16 we could still avoid a new landmark, but being realistic that wouldn't happen, and never has even in the coldest winters. Therefore, I think we can now absolutely guarantee a new annual CET record.

Something around 10.9 looks likely. That's quite a big leap from an already high starting point.

Isn't it only the sixth warmest since 1850 though?

[Optimus Prime]

An interesting article here;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2006/12/14_sk.htm

[su rui ke]

Isn't it only the sixth warmest since 1850 though?

I think you might be talking about the global average temperature there - it is predicted to be the sixth warmest on record.

[Stratos Ferric]

An interesting article here;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/feature/2006/12/14_sk.htm

I think if you read back a few posts there is a potential mistake in this. For what it's worth my calculations are made using Philip's own data; there's more chance of hell freezing over than there is of the annual CET based on Philip's numbers drifting back anywhere near 10.5.

Far be it from me to suggest that the quality of TWO's analysis is on a par to some of their wilder LRFs.

[West is Best]

I think if you read back a few posts there is a potential mistake in this.

Yes I think OP has missed Kevin's point. The weatheronline article is a mistake based on the assumption that November and December were average. I suppose you can see how the error would arise given that Philip has in-filled the missing data with the default averages in red. Even so ...

Still no sign of the official November CET. Reading between the lines of Met Office press releases, the figure seems to be somewhere between 7.9C and 8.2C.

A cool down this week, and then the possibility of a mild final week of the month. I imagine we should be looking at something over 7C now for December, and possibly substantially so despite this week's 'correction'.

So a record year is a certainty. The 11C is probably out of reach, although by my reckoning it is achievable on Philip's figures with a 8.0C December? http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

Edited December 18, 2006 by West is Best

[Stratos Ferric]

Based on the mid month Dec CET projection the yearly outturn would be a tad under 10.9C.

[West is Best]

November official CET looks to be 8.1C http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...mp;#entry863995

The figure for December up to 18th was 7.9C

[Stratos Ferric]

The final figure looks like being 10.83-10.84.

Some turnaround.

Will next year also break the previous record? Would anyone bet against another new record being set? How long before 11.00C is breached?

[Snowly does it]

The final figure looks like being 10.83-10.84.

Some turnaround.

Will next year also break the previous record? Would anyone bet against another new record being set? How long before 11.00C is breached?

Well, we could easily be well ahead of the game by March given last years relatively cold first three months... A hot summer might well see 11 threatened this coming year, but I think perhaps its a lot to expect of tis year, one would assume a colder spell relative to the sustained wamrth must come soon"

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, we could easily be well ahead of the game by March given last years relatively cold first three months... A hot summer might well see 11 threatened this coming year, but I think perhaps its a lot to expect of tis year, one would assume a colder spell relative to the sustained wamrth must come soon"

11 would be remarkable. Yes we had a cold start this year, but we also had the warmest 2nd half on record by a country mile. If we got a ridiculously mild winter, then it might come within bounds, but there is no precedent for repeated sustained warmth. That said, there is an argument to say that these are, sadly, unprecedented times.

[Guest Mike W]

Yes this warming and the fact that 2006 has beaten the previous annual CET record by a big stretch, is going to make government and big-buiness trigger happy for stratospheric Pinatobo or even Tambora sized stratopheric Sulphur Dioxide emmisons to be implemenmted likely using baloons of some kind over the eqautor to get even spread, once every 2-3 years I think has been mentioned. Basically if the warming carries on at this rate, this will get nearer and nearer to being implemented, the more desperate it gets, I'd say it looks bad enough already, but I don't like the idea myself TBH. At best it's a 2 edged sword, one side cooling, other side acid rain.

Edited December 30, 2006 by Mike W

[Thundersquall]

From analysing the Netweather Temperature Tracker temperatures and assuming December's temperature

will hardly change at all tomorrow, I have calculated the CET as follows:

(4.66°C+4.08°C+5.03°C+8.81°C+12.6°C+16.8°C+20.05°C+15.95°C+16.54°C+12.71°C+7.97°

C+6.73°C)/12

or 131.93 / 12 = 10.99°C.

Whether this changes by any small amount, surely the record will be smashed by some considerable margin.

The average annual temperature should be 117 / 12 = 9.75°C.

Therefore this year is set to be around 1.25°C above the 1971 to 2000 average which is a huge anomaly.

Edited December 30, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Stratos Ferric]

From analysing the Netweather Temperature Tracker temperatures and assuming December's temperature

will hardly change at all tomorrow, I have calculated the CET as follows:

(4.66°C+4.08°C+5.03°C+8.81°C+12.6°C+16.8°C+20.05°C+15.95°C+16.54°C+12.71°C+7.97°

C+6.73°C)/12

or 131.93 / 12 = 10.99°C.

Whether this changes by any small amount, surely the record will be smashed by some considerable margin.

The average annual temperature should be 117 / 12 = 9.75°C.

Therefore this year is set to be around 1.25°C above the 1971 to 2000 average which is a huge anomaly.

Worth remembering that the N-W tracker is not the basis for these threads, which tend to use either Hadley or Manley data. Personally I use Philip's adjusted Hadley data, but there's rarely more than one or two tenths between them. The "official" CET will be well short of 11C, as I indicated earlier.

[West is Best]

Philip's December CET is now out: 6.6C.

We await the official one, but it's possible to calculate Philip's annual figure now here: http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

So his annual figure for 2006 was 10.91C

... making 2006 by far the warmest year on record. Given the average start to the year an amazing turnaround. I remember people seriously doubting that 10C would be reached. It just goes to show ... something.

Edited January 1, 2007 by West is Best

[Snowly does it]

Philip's December CET is now out: 6.6C.

We await the official one, but it's possible to calculate Philip's annual figure now here: http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

So his annual figure for 2006 was 10.91C

... making 2006 by far the warmest year on record. Given the average start to the year an amazing turnaround. I remember people seriously doubting that 10C would be reached. It just goes to show ... something.

Yes, I was one of those thinking 10 looked an awful long way away after March. Astonishing 9 months following it. This year will be fascinating.

[Stratos Ferric]

My value is 10.84, but I suspect that I've drawn from the Hadley actuals - more or less - along the way.

It certainly looks like the days of a <10 year here in the UK are now behind us, unless we get some other forcing.

The coldest winter month we've had in the recent 10+ years is 2.3C, and that was a one-off winter (1995-96); 3.5C looks like a more realistic baseline. That said, before the "even larger teapot" there were occasional 10+ years which did include colder months. Arguably your faith in the potential for future cold rest on whether you believe the step change in annual values is based on a year-round change in macro scale patterns, such that cold set ups (and sustained cold in particular) are now all but impossible, or whether you believe that within the warming the synoptics can still align to deliver.

[paul tall]

My value is 10.84, but I suspect that I've drawn from the Hadley actuals - more or less - along the way.

It certainly looks like the days of a <10 year here in the UK are now behind us, unless we get some other forcing.

The coldest winter month we've had in the recent 10+ years is 2.3C, and that was a one-off winter (1995-96); 3.5C looks like a more realistic baseline. That said, before the "even larger teapot" there were occasional 10+ years which did include colder months. Arguably your faith in the potential for future cold rest on whether you believe the step change in annual values is based on a year-round change in macro scale patterns, such that cold set ups (and sustained cold in particular) are now all but impossible, or whether you believe that within the warming the synoptics can still align to deliver.

I think, looking at the evidence of warming that you can bin your snow measurement guide.

Perhaps a sleet identification guide is the way forward Stratos.

Do you know anybody that wants to buy a yardstick?

[Stratos Ferric]

I think, looking at the evidence of warming that you can bin your snow measurement guide.

Perhaps a sleet identification guide is the way forward Stratos.

Do you know anybody that wants to buy a yardstick?

I shall leave that one to Osborne in the first instance. I do have a view point that melting hail is too readily taken to be sleet. Perhaps we will, in future, require a sleet scale because it's looking like that's as exciting as things might get, and thereafter "proximity to sleet" - not in a spatial sense but in a "I could tell by the splatter pattern of the initial raindrop impact that it had been sleeting about 500m up...".

Maybe the units could be Telfords?