Yearly CET

[summer blizzard]

I just thought that i would say that going by the Manley CET, if November and December were both exactly average, 2006 would tie with 1990 as the warmest year on record, in order for this year to be cooler than last year, we need November and December to average 2C below that of last year, which is difficult, considering that November and December 2005 averaged 0.7C below average.

[Dawlish]

The first 11.00C Yearly CET isn't far off. (If Dec and Nov are above average, it could be only 2 months off!!)

Paul

[Stratos Ferric]

The first 11.00C Yearly CET isn't far off. (If Dec and Nov are above average, it could be only 2 months off!!)

Paul

D,

I think that's stretching the bounds of possibility a little. A new record is definitely well in bounds, but 11C would require N+D to come in like July + October: if that were to happen I really do think we'd have to start giving serious consideration to the possibility of us being in a totally new paradigm.

11C in one of the next two years is possible though, particularly if we get a milder winter this year than we've had recently. None of the last four has been particularly warm. It's certainly starting to look like the recent stall in the upward march of CET is about to be replaced by another step onwards.

Edited November 5, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[The PIT]

The first 11.00C Yearly CET isn't far off. (If Dec and Nov are above average, it could be only 2 months off!!)

Paul

I agree theres a good chance this year. Needs watching.

[Stratos Ferric]

I agree theres a good chance this year. Needs watching.

It would need a cumulative outturn around 2C above anything that's ever been recorded before - in any other year I'd say impossible; this year, as I stated above, it's stretching the bound of possibility, though not absolutely beyond them.

[stormchaser1]

Morning everyone

So far JAN- end of October my current yearly average mean temp is 9.945c

its still looking like a possibility of either a 10.25c - 10.50c for the North East

nigel

newcastle upon tyne

Edited November 5, 2006 by stormchaser1

[Thundersquall]

This years average January to October CET was 11.72c.

Whilst the long term average January to October CET is 10.5c.

Therefore the year so far has an average temperature of 1.22c above

the long-term average.

If November and December turn out to be average months, would we be looking

at an annual average record temperature?

Edited November 5, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Optimus Prime]

This years average January to October CET was 11.72c.

Whilst the long term average January to October CET is 10.5c.

Therefore the year so far has an average temperature of 1.22c above

the long-term average.

If November and December turn out to be average months, would we be looking

at an annual average record temperature?

If November comes out average (6.9c) and so does December (5.1c) the yearly average would be very slightly warmer than 2005 at 10.57c.

However, if November and December comes out at the 61-90 avg. of 6.5c and 4.6c the yearly CET would average out at 10.5c.

If you were to use the record cold November and Decembers of the 20th century November (2.8c...1915) and December (0.3c...1981) the average for the year would be 9.8c.

[summer blizzard]

In order for this year to reach 11C, November and December must have an average temperature of 3.4C above average going by the Manley CET.

While it is true that if November and December were average, the annual CET would be 10.67C going by the Manley CET, the actual CET for the January-October period is only 10.54C.

[Stratos Ferric]

In order for this year to reach 11C, November and December must have an average temperature of 3.4C above average going by the Manley CET.

While it is true that if November and December were average, the annual CET would be 10.67C going by the Manley CET, the actual CET for the January-October period is only 10.54C.

That doesn't make sense SB, or is it a case of "I know you think you know what I mean, but what you don't realise is that what I said was not what I meant"? How can an average N+D (cold half months) EVER lead to an increase in CET which is already above average if all they do is turn out at average?

[Nick F]

Now I'm completely lost reading SB's last post ... reminds me of a question once in an exam paper at Uni that I thought was a trick question only to find out later after the exam that it was erroneously written.

[Stratos Ferric]

Now I'm completely lost reading SB's last post ... reminds me of a question once in an exam paper at Uni that I thought was a trick question only to find out later after the exam that it was erroneously written.

Actually, there's been a lot of that around today generally - more fuel for the annual GCSE standards debate I think.

[Stratos Ferric]

Given the ongoing recovery in the CET for November, and a mild looking period ahead, I think the odds continue to drift towards, at the very least, a margnal increase in yearly outturn c.f. 2005. Novermber now looks like getting to 7C at least, which would require December to come in at an implausible looking 3C to dip below last year's annual total.

[Snowly does it]

Given the ongoing recovery in the CET for November, and a mild looking period ahead, I think the odds continue to drift towards, at the very least, a margnal increase in yearly outturn c.f. 2005. Novermber now looks like getting to 7C at least, which would require December to come in at an implausible looking 3C to dip below last year's annual total.

Yes, I'd say its all eyes now on the record.

November, unless conditions for the next week and a half shift somewhat and allow the cold to dig further south, looks an average to slightly above month.

[West is Best]

Yes, I'd say its all eyes now on the record.

November, unless conditions for the next week and a half shift somewhat and allow the cold to dig further south, looks an average to slightly above month.

Haha - just posted something in the Nov CET thread identical and then read yours.

Yes, it's all eyes on the record I think, but in weather terms there's a mighty long way to go.

[summer blizzard]

This is getting quite worrying now, assuming that November comes out at 7.6C according to the Hadley centre, then 2006 will be running at 10.64C, it would then only take a December CET of 4.8C to make 2006 the warmest year on record.

[Snowly does it]

This is getting quite worrying now, assuming that November comes out at 7.6C according to the Hadley centre, then 2006 will be running at 10.64C, it would then only take a December CET of 4.8C to make 2006 the warmest year on record.

Why is that worrying SB? You'd expect a warmest year ever with the warmest 6-7 month period in there, and under a warming trend. Get it out of the way this year and go for bitterly cold next

[ukmoose]

High!

Moose

[summer blizzard]

Its worrying in case it screws up our winter, though i do not think it will, sayin that, i always ramp up the cold.

[Stratos Ferric]

Its worrying in case it screws up our winter, though i do not think it will, sayin that, i always ramp up the cold.

SB,

I'd be less worried about this year screwing up winter, and more concerned by the underlying causes.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well, assuming November comes in at a conservative 7.8, December would require 4.2 or less to avoid a new annual record being set. Realistically this is right at the low limit of what looks possible nowadays, before the current modification (high CETs).

Whilst I wouldn't say it's in the bag, I don't think there's much more than a few whiskers still struggling to stay out of it. A mild start to the month would pretty much nail it. Also, 1.5C or more would give the mildest second half ever. 4.4 would yield the first ever (in CET) second half >13.0C, not just easing past the previous record (12.52, 1959), but positively obliterating it.

This year is going to take some poring over; we always say change is not smooth, but this year is like a rock climber making a mad leap for some previously out of bounds overhang. Next year really IS going to be interesting.

[Stratos Ferric]

Short of a genuine Rick Leming turn around, I think a new record is now a done deal; after the start we had to 2006 this is quite something, and if this were a game of poker and you'd been dealt Feb and March as your blind and August as the flop you'd have stacked for sure.

A yearly outturn of 12.75 is now quite possible. When we entered last autumn there was some debate on here about the recent stabilisation of annual CET and the potential for the start of a dip; this year confounds that theory, though that's not to say it's the start of another Bull market, though my instinct, sadly, is that I wouldn't put much money down against it.

Edited December 1, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

Short of a genuine Rick Leming turn around, I think a new record is now a done deal; after the start we had to 2006 this is quite something, and if this were a game of poker and you'd been dealt Feb and March as your blind and August as the flop you'd have stacked for sure.

A yearly outturn of 12.75 is now quite possible. When we entered last autumn there was some debate on here about the recent stabilisation of annual CET and the potential for the start of a dip; this year confounds that theory, though that's not to say it's the start of another Bull market, though my instinct, sadly, is that I wouldn't put much money down against it.

Although if it comes in at around the record or within the margain of error we hve seen for the last 4 years we are still somewhat in 'plateau' territory?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think the main thing that will really intregue myself this year, is from what could be described as a cool start to the year (at least compared to recent winters), what a massive turnaround the late spring and summer (and autumn as well) has made to the annual CET.

Some of our months have been way above average. Perhaps the only thread (or straw) of comfort, is that in 2006, we have also experienced below and average months.

Absolutely outstanding year, and I agree with SF. I cant really see this year not breaking the record (something only a month a go, we were not too sure of).

[The PIT]

12.75c wow.

Time to Shove Autumn back to October November and December me thinks.