Yearly CET

[West is Best]

12.75c wow.

Time to Shove Autumn back to October November and December me thinks.

Worthy of its own thread and headlines really. Whatever one's likes and dislikes, it is a quite incredible figure: both for the fact that it has been broken and by such a huge margin. 0.8C difference is quite astonishing in metereological terms.

[Stratos Ferric]

12.75c wow.

Time to Shove Autumn back to October November and December me thinks.

I think too much champage, a raging sore throat and a bouncy train combined to conspire to get the better of me last night: that should have read 10.75. Apologies.

I certainly agree PIT, if this type of thing is repeated in future years, then winter will be a strictly post Christmas phenomenon.

[West is Best]

I think too much champage, a raging sore throat

Do you recommend champagne for sore throats SF?!

[Stratos Ferric]

Do you recommend champagne for sore throats SF?!

No, it made it worse, though the alcohol did mean my brain was struggling to connect cause - effect and location. Partner's year-end thank you was a trip to a chocolate making boutique where an added extra was one of those flutes that never empties.

[Snowly does it]

I just did a scout through the Hadley for the year to date (using an assumptive 8.1 for November).

Wow, I didn't realise how close we are to touching the unrecognisable heights of an 11 year.

OK, thats a VERY long shot, but a December return of 8.6 would bring us in on 11, a record December but if things remain very zonal....

5.6 only for 10.75, itself an eye-popping figure.

Less than 4.2 required for the record to remain intact. Not likely as it will be pushing 10 for December by tomorrow night/Wednesday morning.

Am I dreaming? Or did things just get a bit scary?

[West is Best]

I think 8.6c is incredibly unlikely though Snowmaiden, and I'm not often known for not mild ramping. I'm still nervy about my 6.8C!

[The PIT]

I think 8.6c is incredibly unlikely though Snowmaiden, and I'm not often known for not mild ramping. I'm still nervy about my 6.8C!

If we don't get rid of this Zonal flow after two weeks it's a good outside shout.

[Snowly does it]

I think 8.6c is incredibly unlikely though Snowmaiden, and I'm not often known for not mild ramping. I'm still nervy about my 6.8C!

Yeah, I know Richard but still, this year is turning out to be mind-blowing.

I was so sure it would be low 10s back in April/May and hopeful of sub 10!

Its a whopping run of sustained mildness thats for sure.

Next year is going to be very very interesting.

[Stratos Ferric]

I think 8.6c is incredibly unlikely though Snowmaiden, and I'm not often known for not mild ramping. I'm still nervy about my 6.8C!

It certainly isn't going to stay THIS mild for long, and as I said yesterday somwhere, reaching 31/12 without some wintriness would be all but unprecedented I think. We're twenty degree days to the good already: this week will add another 15 or so from here. Beyond that it could go a number of ways, but something closer to average overall looks a better bet. I'd reckon the range right now is around 1-1.5C above par, putting December in 5.8-6.3 territory.

[West is Best]

Well we have seen some extraordinary things this year so perhaps it's time to tear-up the conventional wisdom, and continue to be amazed (apart from Blast who correctly foresaw these things). I still can't see the holy grail 11C being reached, but then I was supremely confident the second test was heading for a dull draw ... I was about to add the difference being that the latter was in the hands of humans, but perhaps we really are starting to see the local effects of the human influence on the planet's climate. I certainly think 2006 is converting many of the sceptics, just as 2003 did me.

[charlton north-downs]

Hi Folks

On the beeb this morning the weather forcaster said last night in the South the December record was broken at 14c .Probably misheard as I was half listening to the cricket. Fully converted believer in Global warming although Ive been in denial To think way back in 1986 I persuaded my wife to move to Biggin Hill because people told me you can often get snowed in because it so high up -since then only twice.last time 16 years ago. :lol:

[Stratos Ferric]

Hi Folks

On the beeb this morning the weather forcaster said last night in the South the December record was broken at 14c .Probably misheard as I was half listening to the cricket. Fully converted believer in Global warming although Ive been in denial To think way back in 1986 I persuaded my wife to move to Biggin Hill because people told me you can often get snowed in because it so high up -since then only twice.last time 16 years ago. B)

That's "pleasing" to hear, because if nothing else it does show that the thermometer reading in my car at 0130h in Reading was not a case of mismeasurement.

Like WIB, I'd have said 11.00C was way out of reach (and in fact I'm certain it won't happen this year), but with nights like last night nothing can be ruled out.

[Optimus Prime]

If you add up all the record breaking warm months of the 20th century it would create an average yearly temperature of 11.5.

So 11.0c this year is impossible and unless every month comes out exceptionally above average or record breaking (that includes no below average months and only a few average ones) a yearly CET of 11.0 will never be reached on all of our life times.

[Stratos Ferric]

If you add up all the record breaking warm months of the 20th century it would create an average yearly temperature of 11.5.

So 11.0c this year is impossible and unless every month comes out exceptionally above average or record breaking (that includes no below average months and only a few average ones) a yearly CET of 11.0 will never be reached on all of our life times.

That method of extrapolation would hold true IF there was no evidence of warming; however, alas, there is. In 1989 the 10 year rolling CET was 9.4; this year it will stand at about 10.45. The change over this time has been more or less linear. On this basis by about 2014 the rolling average will be 11, meaning that 11 would already have been breached comfortably. Indeed, assuming that this year we endd at about 10.75 then it would not be impossible for 11.00 to be breached next year.

This detail aside, unless we all meet premature deaths (and touch wood on that one) be very clear that, in fact, it WILL occur in our lifetime.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well we have seen some extraordinary things this year so perhaps it's time to tear-up the conventional wisdom, and continue to be amazed (apart from Blast who correctly foresaw these things). I still can't see the holy grail 11C being reached, but then I was supremely confident the second test was heading for a dull draw ... I was about to add the difference being that the latter was in the hands of humans, but perhaps we really are starting to see the local effects of the human influence on the planet's climate. I certainly think 2006 is converting many of the sceptics, just as 2003 did me.

Cricket outcomes and weather outcomes analogised...whatever next? You should rename yourself West Knows Best B)

BFTP

Edited December 5, 2006 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[West is Best]

Cricket outcomes and weather outcomes analogised...whatever next? You should rename yourself West Knows Best

BFTP

Hardly. I wouldn't be so presumptious to think I know much, and even if I did I'd keep it to myself rather than blow my own trumpet. But I don't.

Edited December 5, 2006 by West is Best

[The PIT]

If the average for Dec stays as it is, which it won't of course, we'll end up with a yearly cet of 11.3C if you use Net Weathers Tracker.

[Stratos Ferric]

Hardly. I wouldn't be so presumptious to think I know much, and even if I did I'd keep it to myself rather than blow my own trumpet. But I don't.

Come now West; you mean there are people on here who play lead trumpet?

[Gray-Wolf]

BBc Breakfast Tv's weather lady mentioned a record breaking yearly CET this a.m. (she did qualify this by saying tghere's a long way to go yet!).

[Stratos Ferric]

BBc Breakfast Tv's weather lady mentioned a record breaking yearly CET this a.m. (she did qualify this by saying tghere's a long way to go yet!).

It's a done deal - absolutely no question. The outturn for the month for a record to be set is 4.0 or more. That's 124 degree days: to date we've expired around 49. To come in under 4.0 now requires 2.9C per day for the rest of the month. It's not going to happen. The question now is how early in the year will the new record actually be set. I'd reckon sometime around the 18th, and certainly well this side of Christmas.

Let's be clear, compared to fractional falls over the last three of four years - all of which were well within rounding, this year is going to see a significant movement upwards.

[Stratos Ferric]

It's a done deal - absolutely no question. The outturn for the month for a record to be set is 4.0 or more. That's 124 degree days: to date we've expired around 49. To come in under 4.0 now requires 2.9C per day for the rest of the month. It's not going to happen. The question now is how early in the year will the new record actually be set. I'd reckon sometime around the 18th, and certainly well this side of Christmas.

Let's be clear, compared to fractional falls over the last three of four years - all of which were well within rounding, this year is going to see a significant movement upwards.

We're now down to 2.4C per day to avoid a new record. We've already used more than half the degree days "available" this month, just 7 days in. That record could easily have gone earlier than the 18th; I'd say it's now drifting back towards the 17th. A yearly value of 10.7-10.8 certainly looks the most likely now.

Edited December 7, 2006 by Stratos Ferric

[West is Best]

A yearly value of 10.7-10.8 certainly looks the most likely now.

Interesting!

I think we'd better get used to it SF. We had our friend from the Hadley Centre round last night. She's working on the climate change modelling (though currently looking at palaeontology). The consensus, and it is increasingly a consensus amongst proper scientists, is that we're heading into unchartered waters in the UK. It's not of course that it hasn't been warm on the planet before. But C02 levels have never been this high, and CO2 has a demonstrable effect on climate. It's getting increasingly difficult to see how the sceptics can wriggle away from the evidence.

Anyway, on the subject of this year's CET: that 11C is still not completely impossible?! Not that it really matters as I think it's certain we will clock a 11C over the next two decades.

[Stargazer]

We're now down to 2.4C per day to avoid a new record. We've already used more than half the degree days "available" this month, just 7 days in. That record could easily have gone earlier than the 18th; I'd say it's now drifting back towards the 17th. A yearly value of 10.7-10.8 certainly looks the most likely now.

Pardon my pedantry <_< , but...

I didn't think it was actually possible to declare that the record had been broken until the end of the year. Of course, it's looking more than likely that this will indeed happen, but I'm not sure it's possible to declare meaningfully that the record will be broken on a particular date (except, of course, December 31) :blink:

[acbrixton]

Pardon my pedantry <_< , but...

I didn't think it was actually possible to declare that the record had been broken until the end of the year. Of course, it's looking more than likely that this will indeed happen, but I'm not sure it's possible to declare meaningfully that the record will be broken on a particular date (except, of course, December 31) :blink:

Yes true but then he did not declare the record broken...SF simply posted that it was very likely that the record would be broken...it is extremely unlikely that we will have sufficient considerable cold this month to avoid a new annual CET record.

Regards

ACB

[Stargazer]

I was pointing out was that I was unsure whether we could meaningfully use "degree days" in this context and thus declare the game up at a particular date in December. In other words, even if we use up our 124 degree days by, say, December 18 we could (theoretically, but admittedly improbably) have some seriously low (even negative) average temperatures from December 19-31 that would bring the average for December right down again to below 4.0. An unlikely outcome, of course (I certainly wouldn't bet on it), but not completely impossible.