July CET

[johnholmes]

I can with Davis as I've posted above Paul, and that is what I use, the Davis average is identical to the daily weather report I do which is posted up as an Excel document each month. Well was until my pc problems a month or so ago.

John

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Right, well using the OONPITMT (integration method) I get a July mean of 18.1º. Using the wrong method, it's 17.6º.

[paul tall]

Well you know, you shouldn't live in a frost hollow really.

17.6º is crap

[su rui ke]

Ah, but this is about trying to integrate a variable over time so both methods give an approximation to the mean. They are assuming that the temperature changes in steps - the only difference is that the traditional method assumes that the temperature stays at its minumum value for 12 hours, jumps up to the maximum for the day, stays there for 12 hours and then goes to the next minimum ... and so on. The computerised integration method still assumes that the temperature changes in steps but each step lasts for a shorter period of time.

To get the true mathematical average of a quantity that varies with time - like temperature - you would have to take an infinite number of readings, add them up and divide by the total length of time the observations were being made over (1 month or whatever)!

Anyway, as is often the case, as long as everyone uses the same method there isn't a problem.

[West is Best]

Interesting debate about methodologies! Aside from that, Philip now has the Manley CET at 19.96C, so it's likely to come down a shade from there perhaps between 19.8 and 19.9C.

The most amazing figure is his sunshine total. Up to yesterday it's at 291.9 hrs. If other parts of the UK are like the south-west this morning then there's lots more sunshine to come today, and possibly tomorrow. It should pass 300 hrs on his scale, with the Areal series presumably a touch behind (source from Philip Eden: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0607.htm )

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Well you know, you shouldn't live in a frost hollow really.

17.6º is crap

Yeah...well....we haven't got below 4º all month, so there!

[johnholmes]

Interesting debate about methodologies! Aside from that, Philip now has the Manley CET at 19.96C, so it's likely to come down a shade from there perhaps between 19.8 and 19.9C.

The most amazing figure is his sunshine total. Up to yesterday it's at 291.9 hrs. If other parts of the UK are like the south-west this morning then there's lots more sunshine to come today, and possibly tomorrow. It should pass 300 hrs on his scale, with the Areal series presumably a touch behind (source from Philip Eden: http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0607.htm )

I think the only way to stop this becoming another merry go round on what should be done is to get Philip to post his ideas. I'm pretty certain they will be along the same lines as my explanations.

John

[Rob]

Hi all,

Latest CET of 20.1°c, thats 3.6°c above the July average!

[West is Best]

I think the only way to stop this becoming another merry go round on what should be done is to get Philip to post his ideas. I'm pretty certain they will be along the same lines as my explanations.

John

John, I'm a little confused here. What does your post have to do with mine? To be honest I haven't a clue what you're going on about! Probably a dim moment on my part. Sunshine totals or something? Don't get it at all I'm afraid!

(Edit - or are you referring to the methods debate everyone else was having?)

[johnholmes]

Edit - or are you referring to the methods debate everyone else was having?)

yes

[West is Best]

Edit - or are you referring to the methods debate everyone else was having?)

yes

Ah, ok!!! I was trying to work out if the sunshine totals thing was part of it!

If Philip's around I'd love to know if he oculd have a stab at guessing how far behind the E&W figure he reckons the Areal sunshine figure is. His figure looks likely to pass 300 hrs which is pretty spectacular really.

[Thundersquall]

History is definitely in the making!

With the Netweather UK Temperature Tracker currently on 20.12c it is almost inevitable the July CET will

be over 20c by midnight tomorrow.

Expect this to be front page news on certain papers.

It will almost certainly be a major weather news headline on the television and radio.

Edited July 30, 2006 by Thundersquall

[PhilipEden]

Ah, ok!!! I was trying to work out if the sunshine totals thing was part of it!

If Philip's around I'd love to know if he oculd have a stab at guessing how far behind the E&W figure he reckons the Areal sunshine figure is. His figure looks likely to pass 300 hrs which is pretty spectacular really.

My July mean is 4.6% higher than the MO July mean. Over the year, most months are between 5 and 10% higher (with the bigger percentages in winter). My sunniest calendar month on record was June 1957 with 302h, but there have been higher 30-day totals ... in fact you can see from one of this month's graphs that the period 29 June to 28 July was higher, 305.6h in fact. I believe the highest 30-day total was 22 June to 21 July 1976 with over 310 hours.

Philip

[Dawlish]

My July mean is 4.6% higher than the MO July mean. Over the year, most months are between 5 and 10% higher (with the bigger percentages in winter). My sunniest calendar month on record was June 1957 with 302h, but there have been higher 30-day totals ... in fact you can see from one of this month's graphs that the period 29 June to 28 July was higher, 305.6h in fact. I believe the highest 30-day total was 22 June to 21 July 1976 with over 310 hours.

Philip

Thanks Philip. West - are we going with Philip's sunshine figures, for the sunniest ever summer @8/1? We need to be clear which set of figures we are going to use. Back to the either/or bit and nothing in-between, that I posted on the other thread and I realise that here, I've left room for error. I'll let you choose.

Paul

Edited July 30, 2006 by Dawlish

[johnholmes]

My July mean is 4.6% higher than the MO July mean. Over the year, most months are between 5 and 10% higher (with the bigger percentages in winter). My sunniest calendar month on record was June 1957 with 302h, but there have been higher 30-day totals ... in fact you can see from one of this month's graphs that the period 29 June to 28 July was higher, 305.6h in fact. I believe the highest 30-day total was 22 June to 21 July 1976 with over 310 hours.

Philip

Philip

Did you get my pm please?

John

[West is Best]

History is definitely in the making!

With the Netweather UK Temperature Tracker currently on 20.12c it is almost inevitable the July CET will

be over 20c by midnight tomorrow.

Neither the Manley nor the Hadley CET will be over 20C though imo. Can't see how that can happen from here. 19.8 - 19.95 sort of range surely now? If Hadley beats 19.5C it will though as you rightly say be all over the newspapers.

[PhilipEden]

I think the only way to stop this becoming another merry go round on what should be done is to get Philip to post his ideas. I'm pretty certain they will be along the same lines as my explanations.

John

OK, as requested ...

People can work out their monthly mean whatever way they like. But if you do not conform to a standard then those figures will only be of interest to yourself ... they'll be largely useless and meaningless to anyone else.

The standard, for historical reasons, is the average of the mean monthly maximum and the mean monthly minimum (as recorded at 09z) as John and others have explained.

The main reason is simply that, before AWSs arrived, most climatological stations were read only once per day, at 09z, and that was the case for over a century. It's only in the last 10 years or so that relatively cheap and reasonably reliable AWSs have provided means of logging data throughout the day.

The mean monthly temperature, as described above, is of course only an approximation to the true mean, but the main use of these figures is for comparing one month with another, and one site with another. Consider it as a monthly temperature index if you like, rather than a true mean temperature.

If you think it's also important to have the closest approximation to a true mean temperature by integrating your hourly or 10-minute or 5-minute loggings throughout the month, then by all means do so. It's not forbidden to have the standard monthly temperature index AND an integrated mean temperature. Do both.

But for purposes of geographical and/or temporal comparison, use the standard.

Philip

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I'm going to chose which ever gives the most impressive readings; warmest in summer and coldest in winter. Paul Tall says, my 17.6º (using the official method) is rubbish and I'm not having anyone disrespect my summer temperatures, so I'm back to the integration method and it's up to 18.4º again.

[johnholmes]

thanks Philip

All anyone has to do when they quote their statistics for temperature is state clearly which they are using. And as Philip says both can be shown. Again to quote Philip if we want to 'compare' our values with any long term averages then they must be done the way Philip and myself have explained.

Can I ask when people give their monthly readings, for example we are about to have the July data, will you PLEASE say what your values are based on.

many thanks

John

Edited July 30, 2006 by johnholmes

[sjpdevine2000@yahoo.co.uk]

thanks Philip

All anyone has to do when they quote their statistics for temperature is state clearly which they are using. And as Philip says both can be shown. Again to quote Philip if we want to 'compare' our values with any long term averages then they must be done the way Philip and myself have explained.

Can I ask when people give their monthly readings, for example we are about to have the July data, will you PLEASE say what your values are based on.

many thanks

John

John,

Please be advised that I have been recording minimum and maximum temperatures in Chelmsford, Essex for the last four years and can now confirm that the average July temperatures are set to be the highest yet...

Day time Average Temp July 2006 (excluding tomorrow of course) = 27.20C (July '05 = 22.3C, July '04 = 21C, July '03 = 23.1C, July '02 = 20.6C)

Night time Average Temp July 2006 = 16.33C (July '05 = 13.8C, July '04 = 12.8C, July '03 = 14.3C, July '02 = 12.4C)

So despite the coldest January - March period since 2002 for this area (and the driest), the last few months have been warmer or significantly warmer than previous years.

Let's just hope the rest of the year proves as interesting, for one reason or another.

SJPD

[Dawlish]

thanks Philip

All anyone has to do when they quote their statistics for temperature is state clearly which they are using. And as Philip says both can be shown. Again to quote Philip if we want to 'compare' our values with any long term averages then they must be done the way Philip and myself have explained.

Can I ask when people give their monthly readings, for example we are about to have the July data, will you PLEASE say what your values are based on.

many thanks

John

Yup, all I can do is nod. I've read the debate with interest, but from a distance. From a statistical point of view, if we don't have homogenous, standardised, readings, we have no comparative data.

Paul

Edited July 30, 2006 by Dawlish

[West is Best]

Thanks Philip. West - are we going with Philip's sunshine figures, for the sunniest ever summer @8/1?

Hi Paul - I assumed we meant the Meto Areal series rather than Philip's.

Philip has July on 296 hours at the moment. If the Meto Areal is 4.5% lower then it would be about 285 hours depending on what today produces (not much probably!). June was 240.4 hours so August would need to have around 225 hours. That's still a tall order, but you might be a little more nervous given the model outputs? I reckon if that high settles over the UK after the weekend this record is still in danger.

If, and it remains an 'if', the Meto figure is just 4.5% below Philip's then this will have smashed the June-July sunshine record by around 30 hours. Truly amazing ...

The Areal series is here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/ewsun.txt

Philip Eden's Manley data is here:

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

As for the CET, well it's dipped to 19.93C on Manley so it's likely to fall below the 19.9C record. However, with the Hadley record of 19.5C almost certain to fall for the media this will be the hottest July ever recorded.

Edited July 31, 2006 by West is Best

[Dawlish]

Hi Paul - I assumed we meant the Meto Areal series rather than Philip's.

Philip has July on 296 hours at the moment. If the Meto Areal is 4.5% lower then it would be about 285 hours depending on what today produces (not much probably!). June was 240.4 hours so August would need to have around 225 hours. That's still a tall order, but you might be a little more nervous given the model outputs? I reckon if that high settles over the UK after the weekend this record is still in danger.

If, and it remains an 'if', the Meto figure is just 4.5% below Philip's then this will have smashed the June-July sunshine record by around 30 hours. Truly amazing ...

The Areal series is here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ser...stics/ewsun.txt

Philip Eden's Manley data is here:

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

As for the CET, well it's dipped to 19.93C on Manley so it's likely to fall below the 19.9C record. However, with the Hadley record of 19.5C almost certain to fall for the media this will be the hottest July ever recorded.

OK West, Meteo Areal it is. As you say - a truly amazing July. You'll note I've dropped the odds on the sunniest year ever after that 12z run to 6/1, from your 8/1. I do hope you are right. That is one bet that I really won't mind paying out on, as I have no work until September now and a nice garden to lie in!!

I also hope that the Manley CET stays above 19C, but I fear it is a vain hope! There'll be trouble on the CET board tomorrow with the "record" that is about to be set!

Paul

Paul

[West is Best]

I also hope that the Manley CET stays above 19C, but I fear it is a vain hope! There'll be trouble on the CET board tomorrow with the "record" that is about to be set!

Paul

Paul and others, am I alone in starting to find the comparison of the Manley/Hadley CET data confusing? I now find myself toggling between:

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

and

http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleyce.../HadCET_act.txt

And I'm starting to get myself confused about which baseline is which for records <_<

[Thundersquall]

"The current N-W UK tracker figure for July 2006 is: 20.08°C" <_<

I think we have done it i.e. broken that 20c barrier!

Edited July 31, 2006 by Thundersquall