July CET

[The PIT]

I see Net-Weather has broken through the 20C barrier for this month. Mr Eden has it at 19.7C at the present time.

We've now gone tens days on the bounce above 25C. During that period we've been above 26.7C eight times.

Interesting that the min temp is averaging 13.5C while the max is averaging 25.8C Quite a differance. Normally when we're hitting the high twenties low eighties temps don't fall that low.

[Thundersquall]

25 days at 20 deg C average, then 6 days at 16.13 deg C: ((25 * 20) + (16.13 * 6)) / 31.

Going up - Now 19.37c is the calculation for the eventual July CET!

((25 * 20.05) + (16.56 * 6)) / 31 = 19.37c.

[Weather-history]

The mean maximum temperature for Manchester up to today is a staggering 25.8C

Edited July 25, 2006 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

The mean maximum temperature for Manchester up to today is a staggering 25.8C

Bah copy cats. Out of interest whats the min???

[Weather-history]

Bah copy cats. Out of interest whats the min???

13.7C

[paul tall]

Mean max here is 24.7º.

30 year average reveals an average max of 19.8º

Staggering.

[Thundersquall]

13.7C

That's (25.8 + 13.7) / 2 = 19.75c average so far for your location in Manchester!

What is the record average July monthly temperature for Manchester? And the all-time record average?

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[West is Best]

Going up - Now 19.37c is the calculation for the eventual July CET!

((25 * 20.05) + (16.56 * 6)) / 31 = 19.37c.

Just to get this straight ... you think the next 6 days will average just 16.56C? With near record maxima tomorrow in the mid-30's and at least 2 very sultry nights ahead?

[The PIT]

13.7C

So close ours is 13.5C. I bet there rainfall is around 50 mm as well

[Thundersquall]

Just to get this straight ... you think the next 6 days will average just 16.56C? With near record maxima tomorrow in the mid-30's and at least 2 very sultry nights ahead?

The Netweather UK 16-day average temperatures for 26th to 31st July averages about 16.56c.

That, and the current Netweather 'CET' is where I've calculated my 19.37c CET figure.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Weather-history]

That's (25.8 + 13.7) / 2 = 19.75c average so far for your location in Manchester!

What is the record average July monthly temperature for Manchester? And the all-time record average?

July 1983 is the all time record with 19.4C, however August 1995 holds the record for highest average maximum wi th 24.6 compared to 24.3 with July 1983

[WhiteFox]

13.7C

Such lows are a vain hope here in New York! Forecast minimum tonight is about 21oC and that's before the humidity really rises later this week! Last weekend we had highs of 31 and lows of 27 under cloudy skies and thunderstorms.

Later this week we're looking at up to 35 during the day and lows of 27 at night. The Bermuda high pumps some really uncomfortable conditions up the East coast! I'd be interested to see what the corresponding average max/min temperatures are for July in New York.

[West is Best]

The Netweather UK 16-day average temperatures for 26th to 31st July averages about 16.56c.

Sorry, I've no idea what you're on about tbh.

[Thundersquall]

Sorry, I've no idea what you're on about tbh.

You may find this of assistance.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=tmp;sess=

[Optimus Prime]

The average temperature from the 25th-31st is 19.9c according to the latest GFS run. The currect CET is 19.9c so by the end of the month the average July will be 19.9c.

The metoffice would probably come out with something closer to 19.7c.

[Thundersquall]

The average temperature from the 25th-31st is 19.9c according to the latest GFS run. The currect CET is 19.9c so by the end of the month the average July will be 19.9c.

The metoffice would probably come out with something closer to 19.7c.

How can the remaining days have an av temp of 19.9c, when the temp starts near 20c and ends near 14c?

[Dawlish]

Such lows are a vain hope here in New York! Forecast minimum tonight is about 21oC and that's before the humidity really rises later this week! Last weekend we had highs of 31 and lows of 27 under cloudy skies and thunderstorms.

Later this week we're looking at up to 35 during the day and lows of 27 at night. The Bermuda high pumps some really uncomfortable conditions up the East coast! I'd be interested to see what the corresponding average max/min temperatures are for July in New York.

Ah! But we are just a humble Western margin temperate climate, whereas you are an Eastern margin climate and therefore get some real weather!

When I worked summers in Maine and visited the cities of Bwaston and Noo Yaaak, the humidity and heat were intolerable. I think you deserve a medal for putting up with it.....oh and another medal for putting up with the winters too! Bloody freezing!! Spring and fall are lovely though!......and I did love New England in the summer!

Regards, Paul

Edited July 25, 2006 by Dawlish

[Roger J Smith]

For urban centres in the northeast U.S., the July average max and min sit around 29 C and 18 C for a monthly mean of 23.5 C. ... Rural locations might be more like 28/16 for a mean of 22. There are occasionally spells of cooler weather but a hot month could easily come out with means like 31/22 for 26.5 ... Ontario is only slightly less oppressive, one of the reasons we decided to move to the west coast despite all the rain for three or four months, the rest of the year has an almost ideal climate and those rainy months have enough sunny (and mild, usually) days to keep one's sanity.

What?

Edited July 26, 2006 by Roger J Smith

[paul tall]

Such lows are a vain hope here in New York! Forecast minimum tonight is about 21oC and that's before the humidity really rises later this week! Last weekend we had highs of 31 and lows of 27 under cloudy skies and thunderstorms.

Later this week we're looking at up to 35 during the day and lows of 27 at night. The Bermuda high pumps some really uncomfortable conditions up the East coast! I'd be interested to see what the corresponding average max/min temperatures are for July in New York.

Average Max 28ºC

Average Min 19ºC

lLondon is about 23/14

NE England about 20/11

[su rui ke]

How can the remaining days have an av temp of 19.9c, when the temp starts near 20c and ends near 14c?

Well, it still looks like there will be more days between the 25th and 31st that have a CET over 20C than there will be anywhere near as low as 14C! The 25th and 26th could have CETs of around 23/24C. I originally estimated 19.5C for the 25th-31st - that was assuming average temperatures for the last two days. I will make a new estimate today based on the latest GFS.

[West is Best]

How can the remaining days have an av temp of 19.9c, when the temp starts near 20c and ends near 14c?

Thundersquall - the average is taken as the mean between the average maximum and the average minimum over that period. I cannot see how the remaining six days of July could possibly come in at 16-ishC. Take the last 24 hours as an example: the average minimum in the CET zone will be somewhere around 18C (possibly even higher after a very muggy night). With the daytime max at, let's say conservatively, 28C in the CET zone that would give an average of 23C in this 24 hour period.

Anyway, the Manley CET rose 0.19C in the previous 24 hours up to 19.84C. It will pass 20C by this time tomorrow so it will then depend on whether Thursday through Monday will provide a below 20C correction. 19.9C is the Manley CET figure to beat for the hottest ever July, and hottest ever month (19.5C on Hadley).

[Stu_London]

Thundersquall - the average is taken as the mean between the average maximum and the average minimum over that period. I cannot see how the remaining six days of July could possibly come in at 16-ishC. Take the last 24 hours as an example: the average minimum in the CET zone will be somewhere around 18C (possibly even higher after a very muggy night). With the daytime max at, let's say conservatively, 28C in the CET zone that would give an average of 23C in this 24 hour period.

Anyway, the Manley CET rose 0.19C in the previous 24 hours up to 19.84C. It will pass 20C by this time tomorrow so it will then depend on whether Thursday through Monday will provide a below 20C correction. 19.9C is the Manley CET figure to beat for the hottest ever July, and hottest ever month (19.5C on Hadley).

Philip Eden wrote on another site yesterday that as at 24th July 2006, the Hadley CET was only 0.1C behind the Manley CET (and closing).

My prediction is that the Manley CET record will just fail to fall and come in at about 19.8C whereas the Hadley CET (as used by the Met Office and therefore will attract much more media attention) will break the record by coming in around 19.6 or 19.7.

We also only require an average of 4.5hrs per day sunshine to make it the sunniest month on record also.

[West is Best]

Philip Eden wrote on another site yesterday that as at 24th July 2006, the Hadley CET was only 0.1C behind the Manley CET (and closing).

My prediction is that the Manley CET record will just fail to fall and come in at about 19.8C whereas the Hadley CET (as used by the Met Office and therefore will attract much more media attention) will break the record by coming in around 19.6 or 19.7.

We also only require an average of 4.5hrs per day sunshine to make it the sunniest month on record also.

Good post Stu and very interesting. You're right - it's the Meto's Hadley figures which will cause a stir if that record does fall. It really does look pretty likely if you're right about Hadley being only just behind Manley. Even playing very conservatively I can't see Manley now finishing much below 19.80C. It probably won't top 20C, that would take the final 3 days to be much warmer than current projections suggest. Night-time minima will be important here. They may prop up the figure despite lower maxima because it's really under the early days of an hp cell that they can tail off. I'm working on the basis that the Manley figure will 'only' (lol) be exactly 20C at close of play on Friday, whereas it may be a notch or two up on that.

Is that true about the sunshine totals? If so that's a stunning record to go ... if it does.

Edited July 26, 2006 by West is Best

[su rui ke]

Philip Eden wrote on another site yesterday that as at 24th July 2006, the Hadley CET was only 0.1C behind the Manley CET (and closing).

My prediction is that the Manley CET record will just fail to fall and come in at about 19.8C whereas the Hadley CET (as used by the Met Office and therefore will attract much more media attention) will break the record by coming in around 19.6 or 19.7.

Based on Philip Eden's quoted CET of 19.84 for 1-25, and the OOZ GFS forecast temperatures, I now get a final figure of 19.7C - not much change, but it is noticeable that the forecast temperatures for Saturday have risen significantly. If that trend continues there might not be all that much of a correction in the last few days. (I am assuming a 'mean' CET of 16.5C for the 31st in these calculations - that could change too tomorrow.)

[Weather-history]

I think the sunshine record for July for England and Wales maybe in some danger of falling. Its the first July by the way since 1999 to go over the 200 hrs mark for England and Wales.

The sunniest July since 1995 and the sunniest month since August 1995 for Manchester.

That England and Wales record for July is getting close. Sunniest month in the Areal series is June 1957 with 284.6hrs.