July CET

[Thundersquall]

The current CET is 19.7C according to Phillip Eden, this should rise to 20C during today and tommorow before being knoked back to between 19.5C and 20C by the end of the month.

Therefore, July 2006 could still be the hottest month on record?

The last four days of July might be around the average or just below,

but this shouldn't affect the July CET by more than 0.4c.

[su rui ke]

Therefore, July 2006 could still be the hottest month on record?

The last four days of July might be around the average or just below,

but this shouldn't affect the July CET by more than 0.4c.

Depends which figures you are using - the 19.5C Hadley record looks very likely to be broken but the 19.9C (Manley) I still think probably not.

[lukenmudge]

The current N-W UK tracker figure for July 2006 is: 19.99°C

Its happening....!

[Stu_London]

Erm ... it may rise a bit today and tomorrow, but Thursday and even Friday should average above 20C with high night-time mins. It won't be til Saturday before there's a correction probably.

(By the way, Manley is 19.65C rounded up)

The current Hadley CET is 19.59C and the current Manley CET is 19.69C

1st July - 24th July

This info is quoted from a post by Philip Eden on another site

[parmenides3]

Just hit 20 C on the NW tracker !!

[Thundersquall]

Just hit 20 C on the NW tracker !!

So a July CET record is almost a certainty. And thus the hottest monthly CET on record.

But maybe not a Manley record.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[paul tall]

It is CERTAIN to be the hottest month ever in NE England though.

My "CET" is 18.9º

The hottest two months ever in Durham are 17.8 and 17.7.

Incredibly hot compared to the norm (15.2) up here.

[Dawlish]

It is going to be an amazingly hot month. The record on the Manley series, at 19.9C, in 1983 is so exceptional that I really thought it couldn't be touched. Over the last 32 years, we've had some very warm summers, 1995 and 1976 are obvious examples, but this particular monthly record far exceeds either of those Julys, by a country mile, in statistical terms. It stands 1.27C above the next highest July in the last 30-odd years and it is by far the most extreme monthly max record of the 12.

I've watched this thread and the speculation with great interest, thinking "I know, it's hot, but that particular record can't be reached". Oh yeah?? Well reached it could well be!!

If that record falls, I'll be truly amazed. Still touch and go, but if that record goes, the UK climate may well be warming faster than I thought. We are living through a remarkable summer!

Paul

Edited July 25, 2006 by Dawlish

[johnholmes]

I'm still above 21C

my 10th 30C+ day and my lowest max is 22.2C on 8th.

Summer was supposed to be over if you look back at some posters in some time in June!

Wonder if they will own up to their post?

John

[SP1986]

Erm ... it may rise a bit today and tomorrow, but Thursday and even Friday should average above 20C with high night-time mins. It won't be til Saturday before there's a correction probably.

(By the way, Manley is 19.65C rounded up)

Problem is, based on the law of averages if your temperature starts to fall below the highs that it has been at, it tends to fall the overall, even if the temperatures you're experiencing are above the average monthly maximum daytime temperatures. I think we may just miss out on the record, It will be very close though. Exciting month!

[Stargazer]

So far I have a (very unofficial) average of 21.8 from a well shaded thermometer in my garden in Reading, and there isn't much time for it to change much from that. Lowest max 21.5, lowest min 11.6, highest max 34.5, highest min 20.3. Still a good chance of a CET of close to 20.0 for the month at this rate, I think.

[Thundersquall]

Current CET is 20c up to 25th July 2006.

I have worked out from 16-day avearge temperature,

the average for the remaining 6 days is 16.13c.

Therefore, if this were correct, what may the eventual July CET be?

There is a formula, I know, but I've forgotten it!

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Dawlish]

Just as an addendum to my last post - this July, if it had a cold equivalent, would be the same as a January being of a similar temperature to January 1963. I don't think that will happen in any of our lifetimes. I'd put the odds against it at 80/1, at least, on that happening in any one year, eg next year, but the odds on 19.9C, or whatever this month ends up at, being broken again, next year, I'd put at only 8/1.

It just shows how much our climate has changed in the last 25 years - and it shows no signs, whatsoever, of changing back.

Paul

[Stargazer]

I get a weighted average of 19.25.

[Thundersquall]

I get a weighted average of 19.25.

Therefore, if it's this value, it would be the second hottest month on record,

thus would be the hottest month on record since July 1983.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Joneseye]

Just as an addendum to my last post - this July, if it had a cold equivalent, would be the same as a January being of a similar temperature to January 1963. I don't think that will happen in any of our lifetimes. I'd put the odds against it at 80/1, at least, on that happening in any one year, eg next year, but the odds on 19.9C, or whatever this month ends up at, being broken again, next year, I'd put at only 8/1.

It just shows how much our climate has changed in the last 25 years - and it shows no signs, whatsoever, of changing back.

Paul

Go on then stick me down for 1 virtual pint on it happening in my lifetime I am aware that I am into negative values already. Obviously if it does happen I will swap pints for mulled wine...

[Osbourne One-Nil]

17.9º here, by far the highest I've recorded in eight years, with the next highest being just 15.3º

[Dawlish]

Go on then stick me down for 1 virtual pint on it happening in my lifetime I am aware that I am into negative values already. Obviously if it does happen I will swap pints for mulled wine...

OK Joneseye. 80/1 You are on.....difficult paying up if you lose though! Maybe you could pay me in spirits.

BTW No bets on tomorrow/Thursday's max temp?? I hope your winning spree hasn't come to an end!

Paul

Edited July 25, 2006 by Dawlish

[Thundersquall]

I get a weighted average of 19.25.

Please can you let me know which formula you have used?

[Stargazer]

25 days at 20 deg C average, then 6 days at 16.13 deg C: ((25 * 20) + (16.13 * 6)) / 31.

[kold weather]

Looking like the record wil lgo bar some sort of freak mins in the last few days. Its far to say this could well be one of the best summer months ever, up there with the true legends. Record breaking maxes and record breaking CET, very impressive stuff!

[Joneseye]

OK Joneseye. 80/1 You are on.....difficult paying up if you lose though! Maybe you could pay me in spirits.

BTW No bets on tomorrow/Thursday's max temp?? I hope your winning spree hasn't come to an end!

Paul

I am still smarting from the previous loss, which I believe makes us even stevens

Whilst we are on this topic I wonder if my original blaze (sp) prediction of bang on 20C comes to fruition? If so I think I deserve one of those blow your own trumpet smilies...

[Thundersquall]

25 days at 20 deg C average, then 6 days at 16.13 deg C: ((25 * 20) + (16.13 * 6)) / 31.

Thank-you very much - 19.25c is still very high and not seen since July 1983!

[Nick H]

It is going to be an amazingly hot month. The record on the Manley series, at 19.9C, in 1983 is so exceptional that I really thought it couldn't be touched. Over the last 32 years, we've had some very warm summers, 1995 and 1976 are obvious examples, but this particular monthly record far exceeds either of those Julys, by a country mile, in statistical terms. It stands 1.27C above the next highest July in the last 30-odd years and it is by far the most extreme monthly max record of the 12.

I've watched this thread and the speculation with great interest, thinking "I know, it's hot, but that particular record can't be reached". Oh yeah?? Well reached it could well be!!

If that record falls, I'll be truly amazed. Still touch and go, but if that record goes, the UK climate may well be warming faster than I thought. We are living through a remarkable summer!

Paul

One thing that needs to be remembered when discussing record CETs is that sometimes it can just be down to fortuitous timing. For example, 1983's heatwave coincided almost exactly with the calendar month of July. July 2006 looks like being very similar, the weather breaking almost right at the end.

Then there are 31 day periods which get ignored because they are not a calendar month: how about mid-July to mid-August 1995, that must have had a higher CET than that year's August value of 19.2.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Nick H

[Dawlish]

One thing that needs to be remembered when discussing record CETs is that sometimes it can just be down to fortuitous timing. For example, 1983's heatwave coincided almost exactly with the calendar month of July. July 2006 looks like being very similar, the weather breaking almost right at the end.

Then there are 31 day periods which get ignored because they are not a calendar month: how about mid-July to mid-August 1995, that must have been a higher CET than that year's August value. of 19.2.

True, Nick, but fortuitous timing only adds a little to the mix over a long period of time. We divide our meteorological year into months and we have a long enough series to be able to ignore the few record periods which cross those monthly boundaries. A 31 day record period just wouldn't give us any real comparative data, as each 31 day period would, effectively, have to start on every one of the 365/6 days of the year. When you aggregate monthly periods into seasons, then seasons into years, then record over 350 years, you have stats that can then stand up to the most intense scrutiny. Monthly stats are a strange, arbitrary beast, in some ways, but they'll do for me and it the best subdivision of the year that we have. No-one outside the statistical world would understand any other way of dividing up the year!

Paul

Edited July 25, 2006 by Dawlish