July CET

[reef]

One thing about this list that strikes me, is that 7/9 people with something sort of cold in their name have gone for a CET below 18C. Last month 6/10 of the same colder name people went for a CET below 15C.

I was just wondering, if the desperate need for some colder weather gets worse for the ice-people, the closer to the next winter that we get!!

Paul

The same could possibly be said for those who like mild weather predicting a high value

At the end of the day, all people did was make educated guesses. Personally I picked 16°C (miles off!) because since 1997 I noticed a checkerboard of above/below average Julys. Also, since 1996 theres only been one July more than 1°C above average aswell. Pretty irrelevent though, as the weather doesnt fall into set patterns or rules, but something to make a guess on.

Edited July 21, 2006 by reef

[Bottesford]

I picked 16.8 as a) I wanted to be wrong so tricked the Earth into fooling me! and B)I expected more unsettled conditions to appear at some point much like the last few July's. Glady I was wrong.

[Dawlish]

The same could possibly be said for those who like mild weather predicting a high value

At the end of the day, all people did was make educated guesses. Personally I picked 16°C (miles off!) because since 1997 I noticed a checkerboard of above/below average Julys. Also, since 1996 theres only been one July more than 1°C above average aswell. Pretty irrelevent though, as the weather doesnt fall into set patterns or rules, but something to make a guess on.

True reef, take any month and you'll see similar short-term variations, but it is the odds on a July (this July, next July?) being warmer than average that interest me. They reflect the way that our UK climate is continuing to change.

Paul

[Thundersquall]

What's the formula for working-out the eventual [July] CET?

I have 19.91c as the current CET for the first 21 days of July.

From the UK 16-day UK temp tracker, the remaining CET works

out at about 16.56c for the remaining 10 days (22-31 July).

Edited July 21, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Snowly does it]

One thing about this list that strikes me, is that 7/9 people with something sort of cold in their name have gone for a CET below 18C. Last month 6/10 of the same colder name people went for a CET below 15C.

I was just wondering, if the desperate need for some colder weather gets worse for the ice-people, the closer to the next winter that we get!!

Paul

Hopecast, hot weather is loathesome.

On a related topic, how amusing to hear people fret about GW (this is in my locale, not on here) and then the very same peple 'hope against hope' that the current warmth will continue. Spurious reasoning methinks

[Dawlish]

Hopecast, hot weather is loathesome.

On a related topic, how amusing to hear people fret about GW (this is in my locale, not on here) and then the very same peple 'hope against hope' that the current warmth will continue. Spurious reasoning methinks

Agreed snowmaiden. Such hoping against reality and reasoning so spurious, makes me shake my head!

Paul

[Snowly does it]

I agree - some people do.

However as I said earlier, I hope the lovely summer heat continues for the reason that Hot sunny summers and cold snowy winters (ie continental climate) is an ideal for me and always has been. The winter part needs to deliver of course rather better!

So Global Warming is a totally separate issue to me and my enjoyment of the summer weather is purely part of the enjoyment of weather from the continent and not awful atlantic zonal or Bartlett dross which I hate any time of year - especially winter.

Tamara

Wednesdays heat was quite pleasant (not entirely to my taste of course) but this current weather is back to the usual for merrie olde england, muggy filth, humidity at silly levels and that generally oppressive feeling everywhere, yuck!

Agreed on the continental climate of course!

[West is Best]

On a related topic, how amusing to hear people fret about GW (this is in my locale, not on here) and then the very same peple 'hope against hope' that the current warmth will continue. Spurious reasoning methinks

I've wondered for some time if anyone would have a gentle pop at me about this! On the one hand I like warmth/mild, but at the same time do worry about GW. It's a paradox: I want a mild winter for example but really am concerned about GW.

Anyway, on the CET with some very hot weather for the first half of next week it's now a genuine issue whether the all-time July record and the all-time monthly record could go. We might even be looking at the chance of the first ever 20C CET month. Those are all very tentative of course, but they are real possibilities nonetheless.

[Snowly does it]

I've wondered for some time if anyone would have a gentle pop at me about this! On the one hand I like warmth/mild, but at the same time do worry about GW. It's a paradox: I want a mild winter for example but really am concerned about GW.

It wasn't a pop at you WIB, it was aimed at one or two people I know who might be lurking (although to be fair I did chuckle to myself as I typed it, mwehehehehe)

And to be fair to you, its not really a paradox. What you want is a mild winter in the classical sense, one without the spectre behind it. The odd mild winter would annoy me but not really faze me if things weren't weighted that way so much in recent times.

[su rui ke]

What's the formula for working-out the eventual [July] CET?

I have 19.91c as the current CET for the first 21 days of July.

From the UK 16-day UK temp tracker, the remaining CET works

out at about 16.56c for the remaining 10 days (22-31 July).

Take the current CET and multiply by the number of days already included in that (21 x 19.91 = 418.11) add this to the number of remaining days multiplied by the average for those days (418.11 + 10 x 16.56 = 418.11 + 165.6 = 583.71) and then, finally, divide this by the total number of days in the month (583.71/31 = 18.83).

[su rui ke]

It look like the CET has a very high chance of ending up somewhere between 19.5 and 20.0 and giving the warmest July on record. Philip Eden has it at 19.7 this morning and the next few days look warm enough to nudge it a tenth of a degree or so higher. It looks warm until Wednesday at least so that leaves only five days for any correction. To push it as high as 20C would need some more very hot days at some point but, equally, for this month not to be the warmest July in the series would need a much cooler 26th-31st. (A mean of 17.5 for those five days would bring it back to just about 19.5.)

[Roger J Smith]

Well, if it's sitting at 19.7 after 22 days, and the final nine days average 22.0, which seems conservative to me (Tuesday highs near 34 C and I don't see many days below 27 C highs or 15 C lows coming up) then the final July average would be

((19.7 x 22) + (22 x 9))/31 = (28.7 x 22)/31 = 631.4/31 = 20.37 C

In other words, the warmest July or month on record and if August reached 19 as I think it well might, sure to be the warmest summer on record (16.2+20.4+19)/3 = 18.5 C

Global warming aside, I think the Sun might be cranking out a little extra heat this year, we are also having a stinking hot time here, 42 C at a number of locations in B.C. and Washington state yesterday and today (well inland from here) and about 34 C where I live, which is 20 km inland from the airport here (highest there was 29 C). This is the hottest summer in this part of the world since 1998. The 582 dm thickness contour which runs through Spain in your current set-up is well into Washington and southeast BC at present, and there's a 599 dm high centre at 500 mb over Salt Lake City. This is basically the same heat wave as people were discussing (in another thread) last week over the central U.S., it has since retrogressed to the west coast.

As I mentioned before, looking well ahead into August, there is statistically a very good chance the hot weather will continue, both in western Europe and western North America. In most climatic regions of the mid-latitudes, persistence from July to August is high, especially in hot summers. It would be quite unusual if the heat broke down quickly and a cool regime replaced it. It would on the other hand be quite predictable for further warmth and sustained heat waves at times. In west coast climates, August can often be a little warmer than July (for Toronto, though, it is rare for a warmer than normal July to be topped by August because of the continental influence, usually it turns out to be about 0.5 C cooler). For these reasons, I wouldn't rule out a second 20 C month in August. That would definitely make 2006 a summer to remember.

[su rui ke]

In fact I reckon the CET for the last 9 days 'only' has to be 20.7 for a final figure to reach 20C. The mean for the next five days might be that high but after Thursday it's looking very doubtful I think. Of course, if the next few days can exceed 20.7 by a significant margin then it leaves more space for even a sharp cooldown not to bring the final CET back below 20.

Realistically, going by the latest models the final figure could end up just below where it is now - a modest rise over the next few days followed by a slightly bigger fall. There is a good chance of the record for July being broken but it's going to be close I think!

[West is Best]

Something that has interested me is the way the Manley CET has caught up the NW tracker. I'm not quite sure of the reason for that - but they are now within 0.2C of each other.

Even if the 0z GFS transpires there's no correction until next Friday. With temps in the interim once again likely to be in the 30's in places and, just as significantly, back to those very warm muggy nights the CET should certainly go over 20C by then. The question at that point will be whether the remaining 3 days would be cool enough to see a significant markdown.

Mind you, this is all projected on the Manley figure at the moment. Who knows what the Meto's Hadley "CET" will come up with for the month. 18C?! The previous warmest Manley figure was 19.9C (July 1983 - 19.5C on the Hadley "CET") so it's going to be close as to whether this is the warmest ever month recorded in the UK.

Sources:

http://www.climate-uk.com/provisional.htm

http://www.meto.gov.uk/research/hadleycent.../HadCET_act.txt

[johnholmes]

very parochial I know but my mean temp at the mo is 20.7C.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Do you know West, I didnt realise how hot this month had been (although I admit, I wasnt in the country for about 1/2 of it).

It would be interesting to see what other countries 'summaries' are going to be at the end of the month. The US has also been hot (although i'm not too sure of how much above average they have been).

[su rui ke]

One thing anyway - I think this July being at least the second warmest July in the CET series is pretty safe!

[Weather-history]

Here's the warmest pair of months recorded in the CET list with their combined CET average.

Jan/Feb 1990: 6.9

Feb/Mar 1779: 7.9

Mar/Apr 1961: 9.1

Apr/May 1798: 11.65

May/Jun 1846: 15.25

Jun/Jul 1976: 17.85

Jul/Aug 1995: 18.9

Aug/Sep: 1947: 16.75

Sep/Oct 2005: 14.15

Oct/Nov 1818: 10.75

Nov/Dec 1994: 8.25

Dec/Jan 1974/75: 7.45

Warmest triple set of months on the CET list (excluding the seasons)

Jan/Feb/Mar 1990: 7.37

Feb/Mar/Apr 1779: 8.4

Apr/May/Jun 1798: 13.4

May/Jun/Jul 1976: 15.93

Jul/Aug/Sep 1995: 17.17

Aug/Sep/Oct 1995: 15.27

Oct/Nov/Dec 1994: 8.9

Nov/Dec/Jan 1974/75: 7.23

[kold weather]

Warmest ever CET still looks quite probable now looking considering we've still got 3-4 days of very above average temps to come this week.

[Guest Mike W]

I would say that the record highest CET is going to be broken on the Manley and Hadley series now. Becasue even if we get cooler weather in the last few days their will still be a time lag with all the hot weather before it. It's certainly going to be close to say the least. ATM I would favour us to easily break the record really.

Edited July 23, 2006 by Mike W

[West is Best]

Here's the warmest pair of months recorded in the CET list with their combined CET average.

Jan/Feb 1990: 6.9

Feb/Mar 1779: 7.9

Mar/Apr 1961: 9.1

Apr/May 1798: 11.65

May/Jun 1846: 15.25

Jun/Jul 1976: 17.85

Jul/Aug 1995: 18.9

Aug/Sep: 1947: 16.75

Sep/Oct 2005: 14.15

Oct/Nov 1818: 10.75

Nov/Dec 1994: 8.25

Dec/Jan 1974/75: 7.45

Warmest triple set of months on the CET list (excluding the seasons)

Jan/Feb/Mar 1990: 7.37

Feb/Mar/Apr 1779: 8.4

Apr/May/Jun 1798: 13.4

May/Jun/Jul 1976: 15.93

Jul/Aug/Sep 1995: 17.17

Aug/Sep/Oct 1995: 15.27

Oct/Nov/Dec 1994: 8.9

Nov/Dec/Jan 1974/75: 7.23

Kevin/everyone, I'm keeping an eye on the run of 30C temps at the moment. As Norwich has hit 28C by noon today it's quite likely we're going to top 30C today again, and this now looks possible until Thursday. I can't now recall when the first one in this spell happened (was it 16th?) but that could make a run of around 11 or 12 days of 30C + temps. I wonder what the July record for that is? Anyone?

[paul tall]

I know in 1976, there was 15 consecutive days where 32ºC was recorded somewhere in the UK. Although that spanned the last week of June and First week of July.

So even in the days of GW, that is the stand out heatwave of all time, and nothing has came close yet. It is possible that extraordinary heatwave will never be beaten in our lifetimes.

10/11 consecutive 30ºC + days in July is special and most be close to a monthly record though.

In August 2003, Heathrow Airport recorded 11 consecutive days above 30ºC, topping out at 100ºF. Exceptional when you consider it was for one location, not countrywide.

[Bham Chris]

Well I haven't recorded a below 20C day this month,which speaks for itself.This has certainly been an exceptioanal month and I can't even see a below 25C day for the remainder of the month now so we will almost certainly reach the hottest July on record.Even the brief spell of cooler nights did'nt have much of an effect.

[Dawlish]

Kevin/everyone, I'm keeping an eye on the run of 30C temps at the moment. As Norwich has hit 28C by noon today it's quite likely we're going to top 30C today again, and this now looks possible until Thursday. I can't now recall when the first one in this spell happened (was it 16th?) but that could make a run of around 11 or 12 days of 30C + temps. I wonder what the July record for that is? Anyone?

It was last Sunday, West, 16th. You were right.

Paul

[Snowly does it]

Kevin/everyone, I'm keeping an eye on the run of 30C temps at the moment. As Norwich has hit 28C by noon today it's quite likely we're going to top 30C today again, and this now looks possible until Thursday. I can't now recall when the first one in this spell happened (was it 16th?) but that could make a run of around 11 or 12 days of 30C + temps. I wonder what the July record for that is? Anyone?

It has clouded over in Norfolk somewhat (although I am somewhat distant from Norwich) and the temperature is bobbing between 27 and 29.5 at its highest so far. Not sure if it has gone over the top in the county yet though. Humidity has dropped off from an insane 80% to a much nicer 45%