July CET

[kippure]

15.8C Im expecting a very cool july after next friday. The return of the atlantic is upon us.

[summer blizzard]

Kippure: 15.8C

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Hammer: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

Blast From the Past: 17.4C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Thundry Wintry showers: 17.6C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Supercell: 18.3C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Jackone: 18.5C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

I have added in Hammer's CET forecast and Thundry Wintry showers CET forecast...

http://www.btinternet.com/~highdown/

[SLUSH]

It had better be 18.5, I'm on holiday in Cornwall the last 2 weeks of July

[Anti-Mild]

17.4c for me please.

[West is Best]

Joneseye: 20C

There has never been a 20C in CET history! I think 19.1C is the highest - Kevin?

Are we using the Manley benchmark or the Hadley one by the way?

[Coopsy]

17.7oC for me

Edited July 4, 2006 by canadiancoops

[Bottesford]

There has never been a 20C in CET history! I think 19.1C is the highest - Kevin?

Are we using the Manley benchmark or the Hadley one by the way?

19.5C was highest ever in 1983. Next hottest was 18.8 in 1783.

[kold weather]

20C will require something very special, a combo of the sustained heat from a month like August 1995 and also a heatwave like Aug 2003. its possible for sure and one day we will hit that mark but I don't think it'll be this month!

Still looking hot this month and am expecting another month at 1-2C above average.

[summer blizzard]

Kippure: 15.8C

Terminal Moraine: 15.9C

Reef: 16C

Mark: 16C

Snowmaiden: 16.2C

The Pit: 16.5C

Stephen Prudence: 16.5C

SnowBear: 16.6C

Bottesford: 16.8C

Snowprincess: 16.9C

Hammer: 16.9C

Beng: 17.1C

Blast From the Past: 17.4C

Anti-Mild: 17.4C

HighPressure: 17.5C

Thundry Wintry showers: 17.6C

Canadiancoops: 17.7C

Stormchaser1: 17.8C

Rollo: 17.8C

SNOW-MAN2006: 17.9C

AtlanticFlamethrower: 17.9C

SteveB: 18C

Pete Tattum: 18.1C

West Is Best: 18.1C

Great Plum: 18.2C

Supercell: 18.3C

Shuggee: 18.4C

Jackone: 18.5C

Slush: 18.5C

Stricklands: 18.6C

Summer of 95: 18.7C

Dawlish: 18.7C

Kold Weather: 18.8C

Scorcher: 19.1C

Summer Blizzard: 19.5C

Optimus Prime: 19.5C

Michael Prys-Roberts: 19.5C

Joneseye: 20C

[West is Best]

19.5C was highest ever in 1983. Next hottest was 18.8 in 1783.

Thanks Bottesford. To get a 20C would be ridiculous really, and I can't see it happening for some years even with AGW.

Having said that, and just for fun, it's currently 21.6C on Manley CET which is a whopping 5.8C above average http://www.climate-uk.com/

It won't last though! Things are about to turn fresher, and although high pressure will rebuild next week we would need a substantial heatwave to kick in fast again for anything near 20C to be maintained this month. We should see some fresher nights whilst the high takes time to establish too.

[Weather-history]

19.5C was highest ever in 1983. Next hottest was 18.8 in 1783.

The next hottest month was actually August 1995 with 19.2, July 1783 was the second hottest July though :lol:

Its the 5th month in the row that the first few days has started with excessive sunshine amounts.

Edited July 6, 2006 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

What happens from here on depends on whether we can get another heatwave or not by mid-month. If we can then I still think a high CET is possible, in fact I think the teleconnections favor another prolonged hot-spell like the last week but probably a little cooler. My CET of 18.8C certainly will need another prolonged hot spell to pull off and would make it one of the warmest months ever. More likely is a month in the 17C range which would still put it in the above average range.

[MP-R]

My CET currently sits at 23.4C - very warm thanks to the heat wave. It will probably go down over the coming weeks depending on whether we are up for another hot spells like we've seen. This has nothing to do with the CET but I have recorded 38.7mm of rain already this month.

[guitarnutter]

25C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wonder if the above average sunshine amounts will be able to sustain generally across the country? My guess is probably not.

Each of the past 3 months have began exceptionally sunny, and stayed that way over certain areas of the country, but fallen to near-normal levels in other areas (indeed May ended up dull in the south). In April it was NE England and SE Scotland that were exceptionally sunny, in May it was northern Scotland, and in June it was much of the southern half of England.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

well this month we here on the eastern coast had not seen sun (atall) for 3 days solid as the fog was just lying here whilst the rest of you sunbathed lol although yesterday was plesant as the sun re-apperead putting temperatures into there tweenty's.

SNOW-MAN2006

Edited July 7, 2006 by SNOW-MAN2006

[kold weather]

I'm feeling actually quite happy about my prediction for aCEt of over 18C looking at the recent5 models and the trend for another strong warm-up to occur by mid-month that may once again give temps into the 30's. if this does occur any chance sof a below average month will have probably already gone given the sort of pattern we are presently in and with the jet in the position its in its going to be quite hard to get any cooler air south for a while yet.

Anything above 17C is looking a good bet right now. The record hottest month is still possible as well if this heatwave occurs...I certainly would not rule it out and i'm still reasonably happy that it could be in the top 10 warmest months ever.

[SP1986]

10.2C now for me, just for the fun of it... well you never know do you? Someones got to take a ridiculous guess :lol:

[Joneseye]

Thanks Bottesford. To get a 20C would be ridiculous really, and I can't see it happening for some years even with AGW.

Having said that, and just for fun, it's currently 21.6C on Manley CET which is a whopping 5.8C above average http://www.climate-uk.com/

It won't last though! Things are about to turn fresher, and although high pressure will rebuild next week we would need a substantial heatwave to kick in fast again for anything near 20C to be maintained this month. We should see some fresher nights whilst the high takes time to establish too.

To be honest I went for 20C as a bit of a laugh. I knew the first week was going to be fairly hot...

I notice the CET tracker on Net-Weather is still 19.85C. I wonder how close we will come to a 20C month as from the end of the week onwards the current trend in the models looks quite favourable for a sustained period of warm/hot summer weather.

[West is Best]

To be honest I went for 20C as a bit of a laugh. I knew the first week was going to be fairly hot...

I notice the CET tracker on Net-Weather is still 19.85C. I wonder how close we will come to a 20C month as from the end of the week onwards the current trend in the models looks quite favourable for a sustained period of warm/hot summer weather.

Both May and June looked like heading for records, only to have much cooler second halves of the month. So this time I'm not going to tempt fate. However, every chance given the latest synoptics that at the 2/3rds point of the month we'll be not far from 20C.

[kold weather]

Could be very intresting, still don't expect anything like 20C to be broken by the end of the month but its looking very possible that a CEt above 18C is starting to look quite possible, and soon could well be probable if the hot set-up continues till the last 3rd of the month.

[Optimus Prime]

Going by the current GFS projection (which has been remarkably right in predicting the CET from 1-7th) the CEt will stand at 19.1c by the 17th. That's 2.6c above average.

[Roger J Smith]

I forgot to enter this month (away from 1 to 4 July in any case) but in my summer forecast on that thread I was talking about a hot summer. This is actually so far 1-2 degrees warmer than I was expecting, so, since I was looking for August to be the hottest of the three months, I guess either (a) the heat came earlier or ( August may be a real scorcher.

Leaning towards ( since in the climate I am more familiar with (eastern N America) it is very unusual for temperature anomalies to go negative in late July, August or even September after a warm June and first half of July. Usually, if June is going to be an outlier in that sense, the change happens around 28-30 June.

In your case, I think with this North Sea ridge apparently replacing the Azores high there is now a real anchor in place for continued hot, dry weather. I would not be surprised if either July or August hit the magic 20.0 mark, and right now that's about what I would predict for July, given that max temps in the period Thursday to about middle of next week will not be far from 30 C. Every day that reaches say 30/14 for a mean of 22 pushes that monthly mean up a tenth or so.

This is basically the same circulation as last winter, only now the blocking high is rather warm instead of rather cold. BTW, nice head-butt action video.

[West is Best]

Going by the current GFS projection (which has been remarkably right in predicting the CET from 1-7th) the CEt will stand at 19.1c by the 17th. That's 2.6c above average.

The GFS has not been accurate at all. It's underplayed temps by between 3C and 4C almost every day.

It'll be much higher than 19.1C by 17th ... you wait and see!

Edited July 11, 2006 by West is Best

[kold weather]

I'd be inclined to agree with you West, by the 17th as a min it'll be much closer to 20C. Still looking like the first 15 days will be up there as the warmest ever along wit hthe likes of 76 and other hot first 15 days of July. Still there does appear to be one thing in the way of a very hot month in terms of the CEt and that is the possiblty of a more NW/N flow by the 20th. While its far from certain the 12z does show this option and its one that is really very possible but when it occurs and how long any more meridional pattern lasts is in the lap of the gods at the moment.