July CET

[Weather-history]

Kevin/everyone, I'm keeping an eye on the run of 30C temps at the moment.

Manchester Airport has just recorded its 8th consecutive day of 25C or above. Even Summer 1995 didn't achieve that.

Edited July 23, 2006 by Mr_Data

[Nick H]

In August 2003, Heathrow Airport recorded 11 consecutive days above 30ºC, topping out at 100ºF. Exceptional when you consider it was for one location, not countrywide.

Heathrow only recorded 5 consecutive days above 30°C in August 2003.

No 30°C today, 29°C has been recorded at Norwich but I don't think this is an official station, besides it started to cool off in that city now.

Mr Data, is this not Manchester's 9th consecutive 25°C+ day? Manchester also had 10 consecutive days of 25°C Thursday 7 through Saturday 16 July 1983.

Edited July 23, 2006 by Nick H

[MP-R]

Well I haven't recorded a below 20C day this month,which speaks for itself.This has certainly been an exceptioanal month and I can't even see a below 25C day for the remainder of the month now so we will almost certainly reach the hottest July on record.Even the brief spell of cooler nights did'nt have much of an effect.

That's almost my case. It fell to 19C on the 6th and down to 18C on the 10th but eitherwise a very warm month with 30C being passed 10 times already! Where are you from? Stick it in your avatar.

[reef]

Manchester Airport has just recorded its 8th consecutive day of 25C or above. Even Summer 1995 didn't achieve that.

It is the seventh consecutive day above 25C here aswell. The most I had recorded previously was four. Only one single day below 20C also. A very impressive month, I cant remember one like it.

[Bottesford]

Not quite mad 25c today due to a lot of cloud around. First day below 25c in ages though and even then I was only 0.3c off 25 today!

[Polar Continental]

It is the seventh consecutive day above 25C here aswell. The most I had recorded previously was four. Only one single day below 20C also. A very impressive month, I cant remember one like it.

Hi reef,

This July is hotter here so far than July 1976, and July 2003, this is our 9th day above 25c here in Burton, currently my mean for Burton is 20.5c, +4c above the 1971 - 2000 CET

Paul

[paul tall]

8th consecutive day of 25º or more here today, although we JUST made it, the temperature actually peaked at bang on 25.0º for less than one minute

Heathrow only recorded 5 consecutive days above 30°C in August 2003.

No 30°C today, 29°C has been recorded at Norwich but I don't think this is an official station, besides it started to cool off in that city now.

Mr Data, is this not Manchester's 9th consecutive 25°C+ day? Manchester also had 10 consecutive days of 25°C Thursday 7 through Saturday 16 July 1983.

My mistake, it was 10 consecutive days above 30ºC somewhere in the UK, between 3rd and 13th August 2003, not Heathrow Airport.

[su rui ke]

I don't thing the final CET is going to break 20C now but 19.5 might just be achievable. If the forecast temperatures from the GFS turn out to be accurate, then I think the CET will have reached 19.9 by the end of Thursday. Friday's temperatures might be high enough to hold it steady but there could be a drop of about 0.2C on Saturday. If the cooldown at the end of the week is short-lived then 19.5 could well be broken but, as I said, 20C is looking out of reach unless there is a quick return to very high temperatures on the 30th and 31st.

This far into the month the remaining days have less effect on the figures but the current CET is so high that holding it at this level is difficult! It might just about reach 20C for a time this week but whether it can stay there is a different matter.

[The PIT]

Still plenty of HOt weather to come in the CET region with it also getting warmer at night so still a good chance of 20C. Next few days are cruical and those are Hot.

[West is Best]

I don't thing the final CET is going to break 20C now but 19.5 might just be achievable. If the forecast temperatures from the GFS turn out to be accurate, then I think the CET will have reached 19.9 by the end of Thursday. Friday's temperatures might be high enough to hold it steady but there could be a drop of about 0.2C on Saturday. If the cooldown at the end of the week is short-lived then 19.5 could well be broken but, as I said, 20C is looking out of reach unless there is a quick return to very high temperatures on the 30th and 31st.

Erm ... not so sure that 20C is out of reach. It's possibly unlikely but we look like having 4 days with very high maxima. 33C will be easily reached in much of the CET zone by the look of it on that day. The hottest ever month (19.5C on Hadley or 19.9C on Manley) are the two more likely targets. So it's going to be interesting!

[su rui ke]

Erm ... not so sure that 20C is out of reach. It's possibly unlikely but we look like having 4 days with very high maxima. 33C will be easily reached in much of the CET zone by the look of it on that day. The hottest ever month (19.5C on Hadley or 19.9C on Manley) are the two more likely targets. So it's going to be interesting!

No, it's not out of reach - I just think it's maybe about 75/25 that it won't be! Obviously the hotter the next few days are the more chance 20C will be broken and I was perhaps being slightly conservative with my estimates for the next few days.

As you say, it will be very close. It just has to be remembered that the current CET (19.7) has been reached after two very hot spells of weather and asking it to go even higher and stay there is asking a lot! But maybe, just maybe it will ...

[Weather-history]

I think the sunshine record for July for England and Wales maybe in some danger of falling. Its the first July by the way since 1999 to go over the 200 hrs mark for England and Wales.

[Bottesford]

I think the sunshine record for July for England and Wales maybe in some danger of falling. Its the first July by the way since 1999 to go over the 200 hrs mark for England and Wales.

Do you mean the most sunshine ever for July/for any month ever or..?

[Weather-history]

Do you mean the most sunshine ever for July/for any month ever or..?

For July, for the moment.

[kold weather]

both the temp and sunshine records could go which would be fitting given just how stunningly great this month has been. i think it would be fair to say that the last 45 days have been every bit as good as 1976 was and i think even if August was bad then this should be remembered as one of the top 5.

It's just a shame if August isn't as good because most holidays occur in August and if they are poor, then the summer tends to get remembered as poor as well.

So will be beat those two record. Sunshine will depend solely on when the fronts push through, if they keep pushing through overnight then ther eis a real chance, if during the day then it'll be tough going.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I don't think it would be quite as bleak as the above suggests, if we were to have a drab August- 1994 is generally remembered by those living in England & Wales as a good summer, even though the warmth and sun were mainly reserved for June and July.

Furthermore, the warmth and sun of June and July 1994 was less marked than in this summer, and more restricted geographically- June 1994 was actually a very dull month in the northwest.

[Guest Mike W]

Looking at my 5 Day forecast [bristol], the CET record is definately going to be smashed very easily indeed: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/lib/includes/f...ty/bristol.html

[Weather-history]

I don't think it would be quite as bleak as the above suggests, if we were to have a drab August- 1994 is generally remembered by those living in England & Wales as a good summer, even though the warmth and sun were mainly reserved for June and July.

Furthermore, the warmth and sun of June and July 1994 was less marked than in this summer, and more restricted geographically- June 1994 was actually a very dull month in the northwest.

Its interesting you say that because when ever a discussion of good summers is mentioned, summer 1990 is nearly always mentioned but summer 1994 is rarely mentioned even though they had the same CET, similiar rainfall and sunshine totals. Its funny how one event, the early August 1990 heatwave can focus someone's memory.

[Summer of 95]

This has been a fantastic month, only August 1995 and July 1983 (the latter of which I only have vague memories) have been comparable in my lifetime. There have been no cold wet days or long periods with little sun- only that slightly averagey spell from about 8-12th which didn't spoil the rest of the month. June was mostly fine as well in spite of the cloudy second half- unlike the first half of June 1995 that spell wasn't particularly cold hence June's high CET.

As has been said, all rests on August. As June ended up much warmer than June 1995, and this month looks like beating July 1976 and 1995 by some way, by my calculations if July ended up on 19.5, and August topped 18C, this summer would be hotter than 1995 or 1976.

1994 was very good except for what I recall as a pretty poor August (though not as bad as the two preceding Augusts). Similarly 1990 as I remember was very good except for June. When you are still at school as I was back then it's the weather from mid-July onwards that counts, hot weather when you're stuck doing maths or something tends to be less remembered. 1992 is the classic example- May and June were fantastic but it's mostly remembered by those of us in our 20s as a poor summer because of the mediocre July and abysmal August which comprised the school holidays.

[Thundersquall]

The following link shows the monthly CET from 1990 to 2003.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/datasets/uk/cet.htm

It shows the highest July CET in these years was July 1995, with 18.6c.

I assume that must have been a record July CET at the time, being in the 10 warmest years on record.

Will this July be the warmest July CET on record, and indeed the warmest month on record?

For July record: Currently, it's about 19.94c, and even with a slight cooling towards the end of this month,

this value isn't going to drop by more than 1.34c. So a July record is almost certain.

For all-time record: August 1995 with 19.2c is the warmest on record, I think,

so if this month's CET doesn't drop by more than about 0.74c, July 2006 will be

the hottest month on record in England.

Edited July 25, 2006 by Thundersquall

[Bottesford]

30c here now. Think I'll hit 33c later today. Making most of this heat before the Atlantic comes to spoil the fun.. :blink:

[Weather-history]

It shows the highest July CET in these years was July 1995, with 18.6c.

I assume that must have been a record July CET at the time, being in the 10 warmest years on record.

Will this July be the warmest July CET on record, and indeed the warmest month on record?

For July record: Currently, it's about 19.94c, and even with a slight cooling towards the end of this month,

this value isn't going to drop by more than 1.34c. So a July record is almost certain.

For all-time record: August 1995 with 19.2c is the warmest on record, I think,

so if this month's CET doesn't drop by more than about 0.74c, July 2006 will be

the hottest month on record in England.

July 1983 is the warmest July and warmest month on record with a CET of 19.5 (19.9 with the Manley CET) :blink:

August 1995 is the warmest August on record and the second warmest month on record.

[summer blizzard]

The current CET is 19.7C according to Phillip Eden, this should rise to 20C during today and tommorow before being knoked back to between 19.5C and 20C by the end of the month.

[MP-R]

Currently 31.8C. This is the 11th day this month that I have topped 30C. The CET for my location currently stands at 21.7C

[West is Best]

The current CET is 19.7C according to Phillip Eden, this should rise to 20C during today and tommorow before being knoked back to between 19.5C and 20C by the end of the month.

Erm ... it may rise a bit today and tomorrow, but Thursday and even Friday should average above 20C with high night-time mins. It won't be til Saturday before there's a correction probably.

(By the way, Manley is 19.65C rounded up)